Is this the key moment of the campaign?
October 11th, 2008
click on the panel to watch
Will voters look at McCain differently after standing up to the crowd?
Just watch the video above and you’ll see what I believe is a key moment of the campaign and one that will raise respect for John McCain in many quarters irrespective of whether he wins or loses. There’s a good account of it here, as well, on the Time magazine blog.
Facing a crowd who were overwhelming hostile to the black Senator from Illinois McCain says, “I respect Sen. Obama and his accomplishments.” People booed at the mention of his name. McCain, visibly angry, stopped them: “I want EVERYONE to be respectful, and lets make sure we are.”
I think the real John McCain is coming out here and he doesn’t want history to judge his campaign as being racist or based on hate.
It also says, I believe, that some of the nastier attacks that many feared might characterise the closing phase probably will not happen.
It will be interesting to see how he interacts with his opponent in the final debate.
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Mike Smithson
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It was interesting to see the main stream media actually show some of these earlier attacks tonight - the left wing blogs have been full of them - it is about time McCain put his foot down - but only time will tell - with Palin being found guilty of abuse of power - will he finally reign her in and also the surrogates - words mean nothing unless he actually stops Palin and the surrogates from their attacks too ….
So we had Palin stoking the fire just the other day with people in the crowd yelling “kill him” after she accused Obama of palling around with terrorists.
Now after weeks of running negative ads attacking Obama and his associates, McCain suddenly decides to defend his opponent against the types of message his campaign people have been sending out to people.
Why wouldn’t people think he’s anti-american?
Why wouldn’t people think they should be scared of Obama winning?
Why wouldn’t people believe he might be a terrorist, when you have your running mate running around the US delivering a rally call making those kinds of suggestions?
The answers to all those questions can be found in theme of the campaign you’ve been running John!
So I’m going to have to assume somebody high up has had a strong word and suggested McCain and his people might want to tone down the language pronto - before something truly terrible happens. I think he’s been reminded there can be terrifying consequences in response to his people doing whatever it takes to stop Obama winning the vote in November.
I’m not sure how much nastier these attacks can get Mike. What Palin did the other day was the final straw.
Forget the final debate. I’m more interested in seeing how Palin acts through the remainder of the campaign.
With politicians it’s always hard to tell whether it’s the “real” someone coming out or whether they’re just making a political calculation that it’s better not to look like a scumbag.
But credit where it’s due, this is a very decent response.
(Compare and contrast: http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=LHFREDHB-nQ&e )
And I think Mike’s comment about the “real” John McCain points to the obvious next mavericky roll of the dice for him: To disown his campaign, fire a bunch of advisors, start taking questions from the press again and bring the “authentic straight-talker” thing back. Seems like a lot of people - especially the media - really want to believe in that stuff, and he could bounce back (though probably not enough to win) if he gave them an excuse to.
The resiliency of Labour is really amazing to me, though. … they are still within shouting distance of the Tories. How that can be the case given the virtually unbroken string of bad news for the past few years is a bit of a mystery to me. Also, they are tarred with the Iraq intervention, which I believe is even less popular in the UK than it is in the U.S. Why aren’t the Tories enjoying poll leads comparable to those Labour enjoyed during the last Tory administration, a time when things in many ways seemed less gloomy than they are now?
Because opinion polls are a measure of which party people think will be best able to get out of the mess, not a judgement of who is to blame for the mess (a bit like 1992).
runnymede: There’s no financial crisis in North Korea. The people are eating grass, but there’s no bank crisis, at least.
Sean Fear: John Loony will be pleased.
I am indeed pleased that there is no financial crisis in the DPRK; I am not pleased that people are telling lies about people eating grass. I am also glad that the unity and fortitude of the people, party, army and government of the DPRK managed to overcome the natural disasters of the mid-1990s when western commentators were merrily predicting its imminent collapse (as they have done at regular intervals ever since 1989).
re 4. Labour is not “within shouting distance”. The latest Populus poll would have had the Tories 18% ahead but for their spiral of silence adjuster that I think needs tweaking.
No, it’s not the key moment of the campaign - it’s just one of many. McCain’s response to the crowd was the same that any decent candidate would make in similar circumstances. I do however find it curious that he was so close to the questionners, and that they weren’t apparantly managed or vetted (not necessarily “censored”)more efficiently, rather than having an appearance of an unseemly rabble.
3. disown his campaign, fire a bunch of advisors, start taking questions from the press again and bring the “authentic straight-talker” thing back. Seems like a lot of people - especially the media - really want to believe in that stuff, and he could bounce back (though probably not enough to win) if he gave them an excuse to.
Reminds me of John Major and his soap-box in 1992.
I’ve been wondering what it would be like if McCain had chosen a grey old man like Biden as his VP, instead of Palin. (And/or if Obama had chosen Hilllary. At the time I thought that choosing Hilllary would have been risky and divisive, but now I think it would have been even better for Obama than it already (apparently) is.)
That’s an incredibly awkward moment when he snatches the microphone away. He was obviously terrified that what she’d go on to say would be worse still.
“No he’s not, he’s a decent citizen and a family man”. If I was an Arab American, I’d be a touch offended that McCain seems to think that being an Arab and being a decent citizen are mutually exclusive concepts.
6. I was of course quoting whoever it was. but the point is that an election (and opinion polls) are about voting intentions for parties, not just a judgment about whether the current situation is awful.
9. I think he was probably being a bit clumsy in conflating two separate responses:
“I can’t trust Obama”
“He’s a decent family man, a citizen”
and
“He’s an Arab”
“No he’s not”
There are a million and one occasions on which politicians might wish they could go back and say something slightly differently, and perhaps he could have been clearer. Perhaps the details don’t matter because the point is that he was countering someone else’s bigotry.
JohnL, I think the point being made by runnymede was that there are no banks in North Korea in the conventional sense as there is no private wealth. It certainly was not a compliment praising the wondrous fiscal management of your communist utopia, simply as there are no banks there was no run on them.
As for the ‘eating grass’ comment as I’m sure you are aware, it was a reference to the famine that struck NK in the mid-1990s where an estimated 600,000 people starved to death. Think about it…’Six Hundred Thousand people’.
What people were reduced to eating prior to starving to death God only know but I’m pretty sure grass was on the menu and unless you were there, I really don’t think you are in a position to comment much less accuse others of smears.
It’s interesting that Palin’s odds to become the next VP have become slightly delinked from McCain’s to be President on the Betfair markets (6.6 against 6.4). That may not be significant, especially at this time of night, where one transaction could have that result, but it will be worth watching for whether it continues.
For what it’s worth, I’ve just had small bets on Bloomberg and Romney for VP in case Palin steps down. I’m not really convinced that either would be chosen were she to do so, but both names would be speculated upon and their odds would come charging in from way up into the hundreds, probably to single figures. If the choice of Palin shows anything, it’s that accurately predicting single-person calls is a tough job (credit to those who got this one right), but it’s nearly always the case that choices about personnel get safer the closer it is to an election. I don’t think the Republican Party - whose nomination it is - would allow another choice as obscure as Palin. I know Bloomberg’s record is far from perfect in terms of loyalty to the party (heck, he’s not even a member of it), but in present circumstances might that less of an issue.
A sort of double edged sword. On the one hand you see that McCain is a decent person but on the other you’re allying yourself with those ghastly supporters.
Possibly a similar problem to the Tories….Cameron seems human but it’s still the party of Thatcher so still something no self respecting person would have anything to do with (except for JohnO Ted and David H of course!)
Surely the report described on the BBC as ‘extremely damaging’(to Palin) is more significant to the presidential race at the moment? It sounded pretty terminal to me.
David Herdson:13: Post troopergate report, Intrade has Palin being removed from the ticket at 6.6%, so if the markets were efficient you’d expect a bit of a spread between President McCain and VP Palin. (Presumably offset a bit by the possibility that McCain would drop off the top of the ticket and someone other than Palin would take over).
I think you could just about see McCain switching in Bloomberg while doing the same kind of thing I’d advocated at (3): Throw caution to the winds, upset the right, gamble for the media and independents and hope that the wingers turn out anyway to stop Obama. But it would be hard to do logistically - the slot is not necessarily solely in McCain’s gift, and presumably Palin would still be on most the ballot papers, so there’d be a general atmosphere of confusion and erraticness. I think he’s almost definitely stuck with her…
Roger@15: Normally you’d think it would be a game-changer, wouldn’t you. Before she got picked most people assumed that she couldn’t be the VP candidate because of these outstanding abuse of power allegations, and here we are three weeks from the election and a bipartisan ethics panel has found that they’re true.
But at this point she was only really supported by the 28%-ers in any case, and they’ve apparently convinced themselves that it’s all a media conspiracy. Presumably if McCain was even considering the possibility of dropping her over this his campaign wouldn’t have brought out its own report declaring that she didn’t do anything wrong. If anything, I think it might make it harder to get her off the ticket: Before Troopergate, she could have resigned for family reasons and maybe got a bit of sympathy; After Troopergate, it can only be proof of McCain’s bad judgement.
Yes it is a key moment. The media guns will be out for Palin after the Troopergate report - that is more important - and ANY more dirt dished out by Palin will be highlighted as hypocritical without McCain condemning it and as she has her own dirt that will stick - it hardly qualifies her to attack Obama. Palin becomes the story and it will be very hard for Team McCain to get nasty again, as they planned.
16. EiT - I agree. I think he probably is stuck with her. Intrade’s figures equate a 14/1 chance of her going; those aren’t bad odds of themselves but do rightly imply that the chances of her staying on the ticket are many times greater (at the moment).
You’re right about the logistics as well - it would be awkward were she to stand down this late in the campaign for all sorts of reasons. Still, the two events of a vacancy being created and that vacancy being filled are different things and if Troopergate gets worse or the impression coming from it gets reinforced by other negative stories she could have to go, whatever the consequences. That remains some way off at the moment though.
Not sure about it being a key moment, the economy is swamping everything else at the moment
12. unless you were there, I really don’t think you are in a position to comment much less accuse others of smears.
I haven’t been to the DPRK, but I know several people who have been to NK several times, and their testimony is the next best thing. The point about the floods and famine of the mid-1990s is that the DPRK overcame it and emerged stronger, rather than collapsing and capitulating as many western commentators were expecting / predicting / hoping.
18. The media guns will be out for Palin after the Troopergate report…
I thought she had been cleared by that?
22: No.
http://www.adn.com/monegan/story/552393.html
I see that Haider has been killed in a car crash.
What will happen to his party in Austria?
On topic:
We have been seeing the ‘real’ John McCain for the last couple of weeks; nobody ‘becomes’ what he is - he’s an angry old man who knows that he has lost his last chance to become President.
As for Palin, when some of the Tories on here were cheering her name from the rooftops some of us were deriding her as crass and dangerous, and now we know that she’s crooked.
McCain is flying the Hindenburg and November 4th is his destiny with an airfield at Lakenhurst Naval Station.
And it couldn’t happen to a nastier old man.
Malcolm
24. Wow! About Heider.
On topic, I think, Mike, that the defining moment of McCain’s campaign was the choice of Palin. For in making that choice, he went with someone who it could be seen is a firebrand. When she turned out to have - overall - a negative affect on his chances of election, he then went further by turning 100% negative.
He’s now decided that the situation which he is largely responsible for creating isn’t so good after all, and he’s now damping down the flames. It’s good that he’s doing this, but sad that it needs to happen.
McCain isn’t an imbecile - I believe he now realises that the game is up, that he can’t win. He doesn’t want history to show him as being responsible for promulgating the darker side of American society. Good that he’s doing this, good that he’s showing some leadership on the positive side.
When things come up like they are now, when these hatreds and fears are exposed, then they come up for a reason. People in the States will be watching very closely and feeling very sad themselves about how there can still be such a cancer left in their society. I’m sure that this is why Obama is doing relatively well now in, for example, Florida. With its higher proportion of retirees, there are people with more time on their hands to consider cause and effect.
So there is good all round, in that such “stuff” shouldn’t be hidden any more. For it to be cleared out, it needs to get an airing, people need to realise that healing is necessary in their society.
- - -
In case anyone read my post of earlier in the week about something major being unveiled on October 14th, I don’t think that any more!
Who’s to say this wasn’t a set up? It allows McCain to look decent whilst still getting out negative messages about Obama (he’s scary, he’s an Arab) that the McCain camp couldn’t openly use themselves. Having watched a documentary about Atwater the other night I’d not put anything past the Republicans.
23. Oh! That report was more recent than I thought. I must have heard/read about inaccurate pre-emptive speculation rather than the actual thing.
Jörg Haider has been killed in a car crash.
(I know people have already mentioned it, but I wanted to show off the fact that I know how to type an umlaut).
27 John, you may have been confused by the Republican’s own recent report which (surprise, suprise!) cleared her!
29. Doh! (Or is it “D’oh!”?)
Typical shabby sneaky republican trick, investigating themselves in a partisan and biased way.
Thank goodness I’m a monarchist.
(Thank God I’m an atheist, although that’s a completely different joke).
#3,
Hear, hear…!
It was a fine response from McCain, possibly his best moment of the capaign. I think he showed his true colors but even if you take the cynical view, you have to grant that it was the right thing to do politically. The rough tactics haven’t worked, may even have backfired and were in danger of encouraging some supporters to run embarrassingly out of control. It should be a cleaner campaign from now through to the finish and we should all be thankful for that.
The Palin report won’t help McCain though. Shorn of all the ideological baggage it finds that what she did was legal but naughty. Her guns have been spiked and she will continue to be drag on the Republican ticket.
I guess the conclusion has to be that McCain’s choice of VP didn’t work, but I still maintain it was a chance worth taking.
He won’t take her off the ticket. It wouldn’t work.
#12, excellent point.
In the Democratic Peoples Republic of [North] Korea the 80+% of people, outside the second-largest army of the world, are struggling to survive. It brings to mind a [Nat-Geo?] documentary where a “Western” doctor went to PY to restore the eye-sight of a number of KYS’s subjects.
In gratitude he was ignored: All hail the Glorious Leader: Our True Saviour! Apparently Socialist looneys don’t do honesty, nor appreciation….
Looks like all the Palin bigots will have a field day now.
McCain’s also a decent man, and he is effectively taking on his own party - look at the faces behind him when he says Obama is a decent family man. I think the GOP will feel betrayed by McCain when the post-mortum on this campaign is conducted. And do you know what I’d do if I were President Obama - I’d give McCain a key job in my administration… That leaves the GOP with Palin - oh, dear…
35 - Secretary of State and then we would have the full West Wing prediction come true!
The Daily Mail is still picking on the Tories.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1076370/Top-Tory-William-Hague-flew-Barclays-500-000-Italian-jolly-markets-crashed.html
#24, are we seeing the end of the Franco-Prussian EU-experiment, or just the start of a new Metternich-era?
[
And does Her Majesty's Armed Forces have as much support (from the "Govan-ment") as HBOS and RBS...?
]
“That leaves the GOP with Palin - oh, dear…” interestingly it doesn’t seem to work like that in the US the party out of power doesn’t seem to have a leader until a new candidate is chosen. Why dont they chose a leader/spokesman - who would then have a head start in the primaries, but could still lose?
32 PtPp-agree with all that.It is good to see a good man saying a good thing.The cynics who say this was a set-up, show themselves up for the essentially cheap lot that they are.
IOU an apology PtP and also to your friend for not responding to your email.I open my emails rarely and am a shocking replier.
I’m choking with disbelief, compare the Hague story to this one on Brown.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1076412/Yes-hes-human-Allison-Pearson-gains-exclusive-access-Prime-Minister.html
coldstone - discussed at length last night also in the Sun. His defence is that he paid his hotel bill but ignores the trips, meals etc that Barclays laid on for their guests.
How long will it take for banks to realise that life has changed. I find it interesting that the banks pay their front line staff in the branches very badly. They are lucky most of them remain loyal and give good service whilst their bosses are p1ssing it all away.
40 No apology necessary, URW. In fact I thought I owed you one for not contacting your Site.
The proposed Syndicate I spoke of has been lengthily delayed, but not abandoned.
I should be in touch about this again before the end of the year.
Btw, anybody who has been folloing the fascinating EV map on Intrade will have noted that Indiana has just turned blue for the first time. Missouri however has reverted to red.
You are still a Gold Member PtP.Just visit and send me a Private Message.I do respond to those.
These days,financial matters are taking pride of place over the politics.
Mike this really is amazing - amazing that it is in the Saturday edition of The Mail -the Saturday paper has higher circulation and may actually be read.
http://tinyurl.com/4jaucq
Is it time to start backing Labour again? (Has any one seen the Conservatives recently?)
45 Thanks URW. You are a gold member yourself!
46 David Davis for Leadeeeeeeee Chancellor !
URW@40: In defence of the cynics, look at the ads McCain’s running:
http://jp.youtube.com/profile?user=JohnMcCaindotcom
Can you see why people might be skeptical of someone who stands before a camera and says Obama “is a decent person and a person you do not have to be scared” while their campaign is running ads like “Ayers” and “Dangerous”?
46
If a few years ago anyone had told me, that on the same day that the Mail ran a hatchet job on a prominent Tory politician, it would run a PR job for a Labour PM, I would have thought you were on day-release from the local, ‘Institution’
First to ‘go there’.
What do we know about Haider’s accident ?
Dr David Kelly territory ?
48 Edmund
I have just watch the clips from the McCain rally and the way he handled those rather embarrassing members of the audience who put the silly questions was both skilful and courageous.
This was a different McCain to the one appearing in the ads you refer to.
On balance, I believe the ‘rally’ McCain presents the truer picture.
re 46. I try to have my weekends off and I’m waiting until we get more post conference polling.
There’s a new marginals poll coming out on Tuesday or Wednesday and the big question is whether Labour is doing disproportionately worse in these seats - as ICM suggested last weekend.
See the post I’m planning for Monday morning.
51 I firmly believe that there are no genuine “accidents”. This does not necessarily mean that there was a conspiracy around his demise.
Edmund,the cynics to whom I was referring were those saying the whole thing was a planned set-up.
I think McCain’s rebuttal of the rednecks was as genuine as it was courageous.
In essence he was distancing himself from his campaign.This is double-edged of course but still he acted well here.
46 - Strange headline for an article that tries to claim he’s Superman!
Should be:
“Yes, he’s superhuman after all…”
52, our Euro-meisters must be obeyed!
As some of our left-wing contributor’s would say, Zei…[editted...]!
55. URW - So that’s not him on the ad he saying I am John McCain and I approve of this message?!
46 Don’t know about you but doesn’t it seem we are getting the July/August 2007 Not Flash Just Gordon campaign again? Gordon being lauded for his seriousness, his ability to handle a crisis. The travelling around the country meeting people to explain. Selected journalists invited into his home to show the family man (not that he’s using his children, they are not props). Government of all the talents (with Mandelson this time).
Same playbook but hoping for a different result this time?
Good Day PBers Worldwide and in Alaska - Palingate - Oooppps
On thread :
Strangely I believe that McCain will get little credit for this. Over the past few days the MSM and the blogs have been all over the “angry story” stoked by McCain and Palin. Now that McCain is rowing back indicates to me three things :
Firstly the internals of their polls and focus groups show that swing and independent voters don’t like his disdainful attitude to Obama and angry crowds and those seen as responsible for them.
Secondly that McCain knows he’ll lose and doesn’t want to tarnish his reputation further.
Lasty he’s been given the black spot by the GOP not to damage further down ticket Republicans.
Might increase many people’s respect for McCain but it can only serve to alienate many from his party and his campaign, indeed it may even serve to make McCain seem weak; incapable of leading his own core supporters.
The real ‘angry panic’ amongst the GOP’s Conservative base at the prospect of an Obama victory and the way it is being vented at rallies and other venues can do nothing but harm to McCain and his campaign, not matter McCain’s own response.
Well Done John McCain. Thanks for posting this Mike. The man has guts to stand up to the mob.
2 - I’m confused by poster “Pug Munter”.
Today he’s posted a long attack on John McCain. Yet the other day, he was one of McCain’s greatest advocates. See
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/10/07/will-mccain-look-at-obama-tonight/
For example, post 254:
McCain has raised enough questions about Obama’s character to turn this election around. The maverick knows the future of America rests on the outcome in November, and he wasn’t found wanting tonight.
My eyes are literally welling up as I type this.
God bless America.
by Pug Munter October 8th, 2008 at 3:41 am
The conclusion to this post is left as an exercise for the interested reader.
Too bad he didn’t have the guts to discourage the mob from forming in the first place.
People sign their posts “God bless America”?! This isn’t Free Republic, you muppet.
It contrast so much from the Fear based politics of the Bush era and personal abuse we get from this side of the pond.
51. It’s more Pym Fortune territory than David Kelly.
51
My first thought when I saw the headline this morning was that the conspiracy theorists will be coming out in force over whether or not he was ‘removed’.
Fact is that 99 times out of a hundred an accident is just that. Yes someone will have been responsible and perhaps negligent but there won’t be anything more sinister to itthan that. Even famous/notorious people suffer mundane fates sometimes.
61 One further thought. It might be that the Secret Service have advised McCain of a credible threat to Obama. They are already investigating an incident at a McCain rally where a reference to Obama was met by a shout of “kill him”.
Peter the Punter@52,
Certainly agree that he looks good in those clips - the problem is how you reconcile his words with his actions: approving attack ads that are encouraging people to believe the very things that he’s criticising these embarrassing members of the audience for thinking. Why is he’s saying Obama isn’t dangerous to the camera while approving spending millions of dollars on ads that say he is? Obvious possibilities would be:
a) He wouldn’t approve the ads himself but his advisors insisted and for some reason he couldn’t overrule them.
b) He’s a cynical politician who wants to look personally honourable while getting the benefit of using attack ads and surrogates to damage his opponent.
I don’t know which it is - I suspect a bit of both.
But the interesting political fact here is that unsentimental people like Mike and yourself (and probably most of the US media) seem to want to believe in (a). Giving McCain one last desperate hope of saving his campaign by distancing himself from it…
69 If one out of a hundred is a conspiracy/murder that’s pretty disturbing don’t you think ?
Especially as they will be disproportionately biased against controversial figures.
“Politico” on McCain and the angry crowds :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14479.html
New SUSA poll for Iowa :
McCain 41% .. Obama 54%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1acf389c-6fca-469e-9f9c-55b502cd98aa
Was Jörg Haider wearing a seatbelt? Did he (assuming he was the driver) have alcohol in his bloodstream? If the answer to the first is yes and the second is no, I might begin to entertain the shadow of a scintilla of a possibility of a conspiracy theory. If not, I won’t even get that far, since any conspiracy theory that is dependent on the victim undermining his own chances of survival is a non-starter.
Via Andrew Sullivan, rumours that (as we specualated a bit here) the RNC are planning on pulling the plug on McCain to spend the money trying to save incumbent senators:
http://crookedtimber.org/2008/10/10/a-bit-of-horserace-commentary/
‘The leader of the Roman Catholic Church in Scotland has intervened in the Glenrothes by-election campaign with a plea to voters to tackle candidates on issues that “should concern every Catholic”‘
… reminding them of key areas of concern for the church, including the Government’s commitment to the renewal of the Trident nuclear weapons system…. also bemoans the “depressing reality” that 40 years after it was passed the Abortion Act has not been repealed or amended, and warns of the threat of new amendments to the controversial Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill.
The 70-year-old cardinal was criticised before last year’s Holyrood elections when he predicted that Scottish independence would happen “before too long”. In the same interview he said nations such as Ireland and Denmark had benefited “from the prosperity which self-determination can bring.”
Shortly before the Glasgow East by-election, Cardinal O’Brien told Catholic voters there that the HFE proposals were a “monstrous attack on human rights”.
He also reminds Catholic voters in his letter to Glenrothes of the continued existence of the “overtly sectarian” Act of Settlement that prevents any Roman Catholic taking the throne.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/3174691/Scottish-Catholic-leader-urges-public-to-vote-in-Glenrothes-by-election.html
Latest Zogby/Reuters tracker :
McCain 43.8% .. Obama 47.6
Note - Yesterday - M-43.4/O-47.6
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1581
My opinion is that this is the key moment in the campaign.
McCain must learn the hard way,you don’t mess with music business lawyers
QUOTE
Throughout the campaign season, Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign has continually drawn the ire of musicians by using their copyrighted material without permission. Now yet another band is complaining. Yesterday, the Foo Fighters issued a statement telling McCain to stop using their song “My Hero“:
“The saddest thing about this is that `My Hero’ was written as a celebration of the common man and his extraordinary potential,” the band said in a statement. “To have it appropriated without our knowledge and used in a manner that perverts the original sentiment of the lyric just tarnishes the song.”
As ThinkProgress has previously noted, McCain’s continual copyright infringement contradicts his campaign pledge to protect “copyrighted works.”
Re The Daily Mail article on Mc Broon, I can see the hand of Alastair Campbell.
Trying to rewrite someones persona wont wash. Everyone knows about the temper tantrums, the smashed phones/furniture/
Andy McSmith of The Independent shows that he has a poor grasp of Scottish geography. That hardly engenders confidence in the authority of his report. One wonders why the vox-pops of three weeks ago are only being published now?
The Glenrothes constituency, between Edinburgh and Kirkcaldy [!?! - Glenrothes is actually on the road from Kirkcaldy to Dundee]…
The [Labour] party had made the unusual decision to choose a 59-year-old candidate who had never run for elected office before. He was Lindsay Roy, a local headmaster, whose job meant he could only campaign outside school hours. He is nowhere near as well known as the SNP candidate, Peter Grant, the leader of Fife Council.
What was painfully noticeable, visiting the constituency in mid-September, was the silence of Labour voters. No one seemed to want to admit to voting Labour. “The Labour Party should be panicking when a small town like Glenrothes could be putting the Prime Minister’s job on the line,” said Alec McIntosh, a driver. “But in the evening, I get telephone calls saying, ‘Will you vote for us, will you vote us’, from every party except Labour. I have been Labour all my life. I was brought up to believe that Labour is the party for the working man. But I don’t see that it makes a difference to the working man which of them is in. I don’t know if I’ll vote Labour at the general election, but in this by-election I’ll definitely vote SNP.”
Alec Redpath, a leading member of the Church of Scotland in the village of Leslie, said: “Labour has been in power for so long, and did a lot of good things in Fife, but people see the national picture and how if affects them personally. The credit crunch worries people. People are saying they want someone who can help them out.”
“I’m absolutely disgusted with Gordon Brown, because this is the man who wrote the cheques for the war,” said Rudi Vogels, a former social worker and “lifelong socialist”.
… Labour’s private polling is telling them that the mood among their supporters in Glenrothes is good enough to risk having Mr Brown pay a visit as polling day approaches.
“I think it’s wrong how he’s getting all that slagging off,” said Daniel Ferguson, a retired lorry driver. “They blame him for this, they blame him for that, when it’s not his fault. He’s always trying to do his best. He thinks about working class people.”
“This crisis is not Gordon Brown’s fault,” said Elizabeth Cooper. “It’s global, and we can’t expect Gordon Brown to sort it out alone, or anybody else for that matter.”
The SNP’s research has shown up fuel and food prices as the main sources of discontent. They plan to campaign hard on both…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/embattled-prime-minister-scents-unlikely-victory-on-his-home-turf-957887.html
Glenrothes by-election - best prices:
SNP 4/11 (Sporting Bet)
Lab 9/4 (Ladbrokes)
Con 100/1 (Ladbrokes and Sporting Bet)
LD 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Still no Betfair market on Glenrothes.
6. Mike, what would the numbers have looked liked without the spiral of silence?
Betfair - Next General Election - Election Date
Jan 2010 or Later 1.43
Jan - Jun 2009 5.4
Jul - Dec 2009 6.2
Jul - Dec 2008 100
37. The Daily Mail is ridiculous. It appears to be incapable of taking a consistent line thanks to the conflicted interestes of its Editor. That Hague business is a utter non-story and doesn’t appear to have been picked up anywhere else.
85 - and its readers are the ones most likely to be hostile to Brown (and most likely to like Hague)
Dacre really, really wants his knighthood
CEEFAX saying US following UK in investing directly in US banks, for first time since 1932. With US lead, expect other nations to follow.Perhaps headlines next week, “Brown saves the world” . Life is going to be very tough for the Conservatives, nobody will be reminded of GB’s share of responsibility for the environment in which this crash has taken place. The first signs of any change in sentiment could well be Labour holding Glenrothes comfortably, after GB involvement in the by-election.
85
Try reading the SUN
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/article1796084.ece
10/1 Palin to be kicked off the ticket with us at ladbrokes, should anyone be interested. We’ve seen a fair bit of money overnight on Obama to take North Carolina at 8/11.
I am shocked - William Hague was seen sipping an espresso - sipping a flippin espresso. How dare he drink coffee when he markets are moving downwards - how dare he move freely witin the EU and support his wife at such a time as this? He should surely be drinking weak lemon drink from a flask between shifts at the pit face.
Mail = poles up their arses at all times.
Still, at least Gordon found some props
He may still yet have blood on his hands but at least he can salve his conscience in the next few weeks by publicly denouncing some of his campaign and that of his vice president for going further than he wanted.
As for sacking everyone and changing tack yet again, that would pretty much ensure him not being elected. He’s already been seen as erratic and hot headed, it would only reinforce that belief and now is the time for steadiness and calm (well, as much as is possible in these febrile times!)
Hague travelling with his wife is an outrage. An outrage! This has cost the taxpayer absolutely nothing.
Whatever happened to spending taxpayers’ money on mistresses? Hague’s a disgrace to the political class, with his marriage and lack of public fund wasting.
86. Absolutely. Targeting Hague wont go down well with the Mail’s Conservative voters. He is by far and away the most popular figure within the party and one of the more popular Tory figures in the country as a whole. I’m really not sure what the Mail is trying to do, is it trying to alienate its entire readership? Fortunate for Dacre there really is no credible mid-market alternative out there since the ‘demise’ of the Daily Express.
I must say, I do find the idea that Gordon Brown came up with the idea of the UK bail out rather amusing - almost as amusing as the concept that the US re going to invest in banks direct just because Brown did.
Alistair Campbell is making his money for sure
87 - depends if the Great British public is willing to give him much credit for it.
As Major found out, if the public don’t really want you about then they’ll give you grudging credit and nothing more.
FWIW Labour will get a 4 point boost but will lose it relatively quickly.
87 The problem with saving the world is that the big disaster never happened but the smaller one does- but the recession, the job losses, the stretched public finances, house repossessions do happen. Brown is going all out to ensure he gets as much benefit politically as is possible from the actions this week - which still only might work - but they have been costly, will be costly and are too late to stop the downturn.
In six months, one years time when things are hard I’m not sure that “it would have been worse” will carry much weight,
It should hardly fall to me to defend the editor of the Daily Mail, but if Dacre was after a knighthood, he would be sucking upto Cameron, (our next PM)who would give him one, ‘in greatful thanks’
Afterall that’s what Mrs T always used to do!
91 - if McCain’s got nothing to lose, and if he wants to return to the Senate with some degree of dignity, he might as well start sacking people and doing it “his way”.
The GOP are screwed this year anyway, and McCain won’t win now (famous last words)
88 “No stranger to the cake trolley … ”
Hague reportedly doesn’t like Europe.
97 As opposed to sucking up to Gordon, who will give him one in greatful thanks. I think you just spun yourself 360 degrees their coldstone.
93/97 - Dacre is apparently not a well man, so maybe can’t wait for a Cameron government.
Cannot think of any other reason why the Mail goes down this route
According to SUSA polling of early returns in Iowa and North Carolina (Absenttee) are both running at Obama 65/31.
I think the world owes a debt to the taoiseach of Ireland, Biffo, for his deposit guarantee on Irish banks. A man with guts and vision, who stood up to the world (or at least the EU).
Also I am not convinced that we are out of the woods. I am now more worried than before the UK package was launched.
Once post-mortem begins, Brown will look bad - he was the Chancellor of light touch regulation. No matter how much he tars Cameron, his own words condemn him. Also the UK economy is heading south and Labour will (rightly to some extent) be blamed.
102 - does that include the brave men and women (cue vomiting) of the military?
If so, the GOP are even more screwed than first thought
McCain returning to the McCain method that powered his insurgent campaign for the nomination is too late but it could bring over some waverers. I liked potential nominee McCain, I don’t like Candidate McCain. The press liked that McCain, available, jocular, at ease. If he won (very unlikely) then that McCain, quick to anger yes but also capable of cross party consensus would most likely be the President.
I wonder how much of his recent grumpiness, his unease, his inability to look at Obama is because he has sold out and his behaviour doesn’t sit with his self image of an upright, honourable ex-serviceman?
Did anybody see the BBC this morning with the impartial Mary Riddell being asked how gordon was doing and the BBC editing footage of PMQs so Cameron was completely removed and gordon is suddenly the new Ricky Gervais, whilst Cameron is apparently Hapless, and some people claim the BBC has institutional Bias, I really can’t think where tthey got that idea from.
101
I can! Dacre just hates Cameron, I should imagine its something to do with Dave’s rather liberal attitude to drugs in his youth.
So what your saying is dacre with his small c conservative values can’t stand cameron for doing cocaine 20 years ago yet loves Gordon’s profligate state spending, running down of the military etc. Come off it coldstone. Dacre is Gordon’s buddy and like the curry house plotters will get his reward. There is nothing principled going on here at all.
107 - well, the Daily Mail Editorial/ConHome/Heffer/Cornerstone faction of society has attacked him before over that sort of stuff and it didn’t have much effect then.
Do agree that Dacre really can’t stand Cameron.
IME of Mail readers though, they’re not quite the moral harridans of society, and probably wouldn’t give a flying one over a few moral indiscretions
Someone’s being rude to Sarah Palin. Whatever next?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxL7MKsGoPo
Shadsy, you were wondering yesterday about how many seats the Scottish Tories might win at the next UK GE. I was too busy to reply properly, but I thought that your initial assessment of 4.5 was entirely reasonable.
David Mundell’s seat (Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale) is pretty much nailed on, if only because if you wanted to kick him out it is unclear who on earth to vote for! Split opposition means easy Hold.
Edinburgh South - a total shoo-in for the Tories in my opinion. Labour drop from 1st to 3rd, maybe even 4th.
Renfrewshire East is looking an awful lot better for the Tories after the appointment of Jim Murphy as Scottish Secretary. I expect a heck of a lot of anti-Murphy tactical voting now in that seat.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk should be a shoo-in too, but I just wonder if the Tories have the organisation on the ground?
Dumfries and Galloway has got to be a good chance for them. Tories must be a “probable” here.
After those 5 seats, things get a bit more dubious for the Tory chances:
Edinburgh SW - good chance, but Alistair Darling may just scrape back in due to split Con/SNP opposition
Stirling - SNP have the upper hand
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - an outside chance here, but again a strong SNP performance could scupper them
Argyll & Bute - SNP have the upper hand
Aberdeen S - anyone’s guess!! this one will be a total cliff-hanger - 4-way marginal
Edinburgh N & Leith - the Tories would have to be having a wonderful night to even get 2nd spot here
After that I just cannot see any other opportunities for them.
Hope that helps.
108
Whatever, for me its just amazing, and should be a thread on its own. The Mail has also run this.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1076378/The-gangsters-daughter-Tory-billionaire-biggest-divorce-times.html
There’s even a story about ‘John Nott’ upsetting the Cornish, (not difficult) over putting up two wind generators, with references to Cameron’s.
80 - The hand of Campbell appears to be active all over the media spectrum. What’s interesting is that it has become easier to spot, as it scuttles about in the shadows.
God help us but Zogby are starting some battleground state trackers on Monday, expect results out of whack with everybody else, in either direction.
I think McCain’s response is genuine, honourable and touching. It’s consistent with a lot of the earlier campaign - he didn’t bring up Ayres in the debate, and we’ve noted on pb.com before that he, Obama and Clinton have all preserved more than civil manners to each other - Obama and Clinton have both praised McCain personally several times. It’s important to remember that they all work together in the Senate. (Why don’t I slag off other MPs? Partly because it’d be embarrassing when I next met them, but mainly because I see them in numerous contexts and they’re generally pleasant colleagues.)
How can this be reconciled with the attack ads? There’s a bit of calculation in that, no doubt - the US tradition is always that the guy at the top of the ticket is Presidential, while the VP and nameless staffers do the attack stuff. But there’s also the fact that candidates are not really the sole arbiters of their campaign. If the GOP tells McCain that the money is drying up and supporters are demanding more red blood in the adverts, he probably won’t tell them to get lost, just try to limit how far it goes and avoid getting into it himself.
As for the impact, it ought to be a modest plus, but the big question today has to be the reaction to Palin. I’d have thought that wavering voters might well think it the final straw.
112 - Coldstone, I forgot that Labour politicians are ‘whiter than white’. No drink, drugs, sex, divorce or financial impropriety. Ever.
102: How does SUSA do this poll? Is there a public marked register of who’s voted, and they download it, cross-index with a phone data base, and call them up? Seems a bit unlikely.
116 - its not so much the doing it, as the attitude to others doing it.
111. Stuart, that is very much appreciated, cheers.
112 What? its amazing that Gordon’s buddy can drag up non stories to get a knighthood. He certainly has an amazing lack of scruples and amazing contempt for his readership.
‘MacAskill clashes with immigration chiefs over reforms’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/mostpopular.var.2459610.mostviewed.macaskill_clashes_with_immigration_chiefs_over_reforms.php
121. Weathermen getting involved in politics?
119. De rien.
I look forward to some imaginitive GE markets from Ladbrokes.
115. At last, a bit of common sense about this issue.
Stand-off could ‘go on to 2009′
The executive has not met since June.
The failure of Sinn Féin and the DUP to agree on the transferring of policing and justice powers from Westminster has been a key factor in the deadlock.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7664576.stm
OT
The economy.
This is very scary and will HAVE to be sorted…
From John Mauldin’s newsletter..
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/gateway.asp?ref=reprint
Letters of Credit: Going, Going Gone?
Just as the business world is dependent upon commercial paper as its life blood, the world of global trade depends on letters of credit (LOC). Without LOCs, the world of trade quickly freezes up.
If you are a manufacturer of a product and want to sell to someone outside your borders, you typically require a letter of credit from the buyer before you load any cargo at a port. A letter of credit from a prime bank is considered to be proof of your ability to pay. It not only can be a source of ultimate payment, it can be a source of inventory financing while goods are in transit.
And if you are a business which is buying a product, you do not want to release money until you know the product is on the way. There are buyer’s and seller’s agents who make sure these things happen seamlessly, and world commerce had grown because of it.
Now we are starting to get anecdotal evidence that this extremely vital market is also freezing up. If you think the problems stemming from a meltdown with the commercial paper markets are threatening to the world economy, they are small potatoes when compared to a seizure in the letter of credit markets.
I had been thinking about this for a few weeks. Then an article posted on Naked Capitalist caught my eye. Quoting:
“At the end of the day, if every counterparty is bad then you don’t have a market and you don’t have an economy. I spoke to another friend of mine this afternoon, whose father has been in the shipping business forever. Pristine credit rating, rock solid balance sheet. He says if he takes his BNP Paribas letter of credit to Citi today for short term funding for his vessels, they won’t give it to him. That means he can’t ship goods, which means that within the next 2 weeks, physical shortages of commodities begin to show up. THE CENTRAL BANKS CAN’T LET THAT HAPPEN OR WE HAVE NO ECONOMY, LET ALONE A CREDIT SYSTEM.”
And they quote the following story from The Financial Post of Canada:
“The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.
“Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don’t trust the financial institution named in the buyer’s letter of credit, analysts said.
“‘There are all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can’t be shipped because people can’t get letters of credit,’ said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. ‘The problem is not demand, and it’s not supply because we have plenty of supply. It’s finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy.’
“So far the problem is mostly being felt in U.S. and South American ports, but observers say it is only a matter of time before it hits Canada. ‘We’ve got a nightmare in front of us and a lot of people are concerned it’s going to get a lot worse,’ said Anthony Temple, a grain marketing expert based in Vancouver.
“Access to credit is key to the survival of maritime trade and insiders now say the supply is being severely restricted. More than 90% of the world’s trade by volume goes by ship. ‘The credit crisis has made banks nervous and the last thing on their minds is making fresh loans,’ Omar Nokta, an analyst at investment bank Dahlman Rose, said in an interview with Reuters.
“While shipping has always been a cyclical industry whose fortunes rise and fall with the global economy, analysts said the current crisis over the drying up of credit is something they have never seen before.”
If banks are refusing to go into the LIBOR market and lend to each other, then why would they want to take a letter of credit either? At first, it will be a small trickle, which is how the commercial paper meltdown started. Then it will be a flood.
The one good sector in the US is its export sector. Start slowing that down due to a lack of ability to ship or receive payments and see what happens to an already shrinking economy. If anyone wants to see how the credit crisis can affect Main Street, look no further.
It is hard to overstate the problem and the potential for it to create a true economic meltdown. It must be dealt with, and soon. See more below.
What to Do and Where Do We Go from Here?
The credit markets are frozen. Period. The chart below shows one week LIBOR going back for four years. Notice the gradual rise into 2005? It was a lock-step move with the Fed funds rate. And the less smooth drop was also in concert with the Fed funds rate. The recent spike is not responding to this week’s Fed funds cut. The spreads are wider than ever. The problem is not just the price of LIBOR. There is no trading at any price. The LIBOR market is a fiction today. And left unchecked, this lack of dealing with other banks will spread to letters of credit and the international trade markets.
‘Fearful and apathetic Norwegians back Scotland to win in poll’
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/sport/Fearful-and-apathetic-Norwegians-back.4582237.jp
Unfortunatly they are talking about a sporting fixture, and not the forthcoming independence referendum…
115. Re. Palin - is this spat remotely comparable to the misdemeanours of the Clintons? I think not.
125 - When’s the Saville Inquiry reporting? Has it been put off for another 12 months?
Morning all, I see David Lawrence is still criticising those of us who have consistently dispaired at the GOP picking the Palin woman. Clearly like many from the religious extreme right, she considers that her personal agreement with God entitles her to do whatever she considers right, whether that breaks the law or not.
If she was an ordinary person, I am sure Troopergate would be leading to a criminal prosecution. So many others seem to be prosecuted for less. Her behaviour at the rally the other evening where she was calling Obama a friend of a terrorist in this country would not only lead to her facing litigation for defamation or slander/libel (not sure what it’s called in English law) but arguably given that she was inciting the crowd to the extent some were shouting death threats, that puts her on a par with the moslem extremists whose supporters we have locked up for shouting and carrying placards calling for death to British soldiers etc.
The GOP deserve to reap exactly what it has sown. I watched a news item the other night where people were asked about Obama and the number who said he is a moslem and they would never vote for a moslem and someone couldn’t be a true American if a moslem was scary. Not only because it was totally wrong but the sheer venom behind the comments.
The sooner this election is over the better and frankly some of the GOP people behind these disgusting campaigns should be facing charges of racial hatred!
It is not every day that you see the leader of a Unionist political party declaring that Unionism is “dead”!! Sign of the times.
‘Lib Dem leader bows out with farewell speech’
Mr German, 63, will use his speech to warn there is a danger of the Welsh Assembly being left behind by the devolution movement.
While Wales is grappling with the question of more law-making powers, Scotland is racing ahead by pushing for more financial autonomy, he will say.
Aides said he will proclaim unionism “dead”, and say that in the future the devolution debate will be between supporters of a federal Britain and independence.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2008/10/11/lib-dem-leader-bows-out-with-farewell-speech-91466-22013227/
130..i am sure that Palin will stand down from the GOP ticket today.
‘EU steps up pressure on Ireland to hold second Lisbon Treaty referendum’
Brussels diplomats have warned Ireland that it is isolated after angering other EU countries, such as Britain, by taking controversial financial crisis measures that benefited Irish banks while “dumping on others”.
“The economy might be going into freefall and the Irish really did not help things. Sympathy for their difficulties is running out,” said a diplomat.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/3173967/EU-steps-up-pressure-on-Ireland-to-hold-second-Lisbon-Treaty-referendum.html
129. Sure we already know what it will say, why release it when you can make a few more quid.
Ditto the Assembly, why bother when you can be earning a few quid for not bothering.
Easterross
“The sooner this election is over the better and frankly some of the GOP people behind these disgusting campaigns should be facing charges of racial hatred!”
At the same time the Dems have been hiding behind Obama’s race and using it as a cover for some more valid criticisms of him. Take the matter concerning his pastor. Obama never answered how he was unaware of what the guy was preaching over the last two decades. But, hey, he gave some half-arsed response so to press the issue is “racist”….
The Republicans have “done wrong”, but so have their competitors. In a just world they’d both be prosecuted for slander et al. But then you wouldn’t have anyone left to form an administration if either side won.
132 Graham
Have you taken Shadsy’s generous odds on that?
10/1 I believe.
129. Alex - “When’s the Saville Inquiry reporting? Has it been put off for another 12 months?”
“… would not report until the second half of 2008.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saville_Inquiry
http://www.bloody-sunday-inquiry.org.uk/
This is not the time that the election turned, it is however the time that McCain realises that those boos do him no good at all. He know that he’s in a hole and only a major event is going to chnage things for him, so there’s no point letting that type of thing go on.
116
Errr I wouldn’t say that, but I’m glad you did!
51 “What do we know about Haider’s accident ?
Dr David Kelly territory ?”
Haider….David Kelly…Pimm Fortuyn…
140, Pim’s different, wasn’t he killed by a psycho Muslim (like Theo van Gogh?)
140 If anything, it must strengthen the Radical Right in Austria, as either, both parties will merge, or the BZO will fade away.
Last year, someone said that the Republican Party doesnt want to win 2008.
71 Edmund
The simple truth is that I think he’s a decent man and a good politician. Naturally I accept I could be wrong, but you pays your penny… It won’t save him at the election but it will help to maintain his reputation, and to some extent that of the GOP.
Incidentally, he was remarkably quick to whip the mike away from that sad old lady. Hope I’m that sharp at 72!
The icelandic bank failures and the exposure of UK depositors is another major failure of the Uk regulatory system - the risks in Icelandic banking have been known for years and were apparent for anyone to see - so for the experts to miss this risk can only mean that there is something fundamentally wrong with our regulatory system . The Government should be held accountable for this
There is a lot of spin going on by labour but many of the problems in this banking crisis they have direct responsibility for . The list of failures is very long and most have little to do with global problems but are due to negligence by labour at home
136..i jumped in at slightly bigger odds some time ago.
131 - Er, I was under the impression that the LibDems were Federalist!
I think people should realise that the people booing their own presidential candidate for daring to say the other nominee is a decent person are the people who are the primary electorate for the GOP in future. You can already see their alternative narrative explanation for why they lost this race: McCain wasn’t strong enough to point out how radical/Muslim/terrorist-sympathising/Marxist Obama really is. Does anyone seriously expect these remnants of the Republican party to pick a moderate in four years time? These people have had such a rightwing President for the last eight years they are used to getting what they want, and the right-wing media that has been invented means they now don’t even listen to the other side’s arguments. Meanwhile Obama will be passing universal healthcare, and remember Gingrich refused to work with any healthcare package because they knew how much the Democrats would benefit long term if one was passed. A realignment is happening.
143 Trying to lose deliberately, Alf? That’s a very, very silly and dangerous game to play.
Incidentally, I noticed one or two people having a bash at you for being a racist. You say you are not. We ought to accept that. I certainly do. There are times though when you come across that way. You’ve got to reckon that the reason has to be at least partly due to the transmitter, rather than the receiver!
Have a think about it.
133. These people! Can you imagine running a referendum campaign with the slogan “if you don’t know, learn!” They are seriously proposing this. Which campaigns have had success by telling off the voters and suggesting they are stupid or ignorant?
Their attiude to Ireland is pretty poor. Perhaps they don’t realise what a great boon Ireland has been to them. They owe it a lot. It has been the prime example for the europhiles as an EU success story for some time.
We’ll have to see where this crisis bottoms out, but there is fragility in the EU right now, and I’m surprised they are taking this aggressive tone. It could backfire.
Why would McCain not look Obama in the eye at the debates?
There are two reasons for not looking someone in the eye. Either you are refusing to acknowledge them perhaps because you dislike them, or you are embarrassed to exchange eye contact perhaps because you are not proud of what you are doing. I’m coming to the view that for McCain it was the latter reason.
132. If you do, then Shadsy’s odds must be attractive. I’ve given my own thoughts at [19], but to add to that, note the comment at the beginning of Easterross’ post at [130] - she will have enormous belief in the action’s she’s taken, especially as the report found her to have acted legally. She’ll try brush off the other findings.
It’s highly unlikely that she’ll stand down of her own accord but possible if Troopergate becomes a general theme of the campaign; especially if it starts affecting other races down the ballot. If that happens, there’ll be a huge amount of pressure from the Republican establishment, though it could get very messy.
On topic, I wonder whether the clip was the moment when it was brought home to McCain the effects of his recent campaign tactics. Up until that point he might have been able to keep a distinction in his mind between the attack ads as a concept and the effects on voters minds as to how they view a man he has worked alongside in the Senate.
146 I don’t think it will happen, Graham, but 10/1 is quite tempting.
Nicely judged by young Shadsy, imo!
133. Stuart, how eurosceptic do you think the four political parties in Scotland would be should independence happen?
152. David, can I warn you about putting too much money on Bloomberg. If McCain does replace Palin, which I still doubt, he won’t put someone pro-choice on the ticket. He’d be lucky to scrape 35% doing that.
143. “Last year, someone said that the Republican Party doesnt want to win 2008″.
All parties always want to win. It’s just that sometimes they know they won’t, and sometimes they act in ways that diminish their chances, for all sorts of reasons.
155 If there were a wholly satisfactory alternative, Socrates, Palin wouldn’t have been on the ticket in the first place!
Incidentally, I don’t agree with your characterisation of the GOP. I don’t think it has ever been in thrall to the extreme religious right. I believe the mainstream GOP and Bush in particular used it to gain (re)election. It will no doubt have been very disappointed by the lack of ‘fundamentalist’ legislation over the past eight years and this has caused a lot of anger and resentment on the extreme right. This is, I think, what is coming out now and showing itself, for example, in the booing of McCain and the enthusiam for Palin exhibited by a narrow segment of the GOP vote.
If I’m right, the GOP has big, big problems, which won’t be helped any by the now likely heavy election defeat.
Would like to debate this more, but now not the time and place. Don’t let that stop you having a pop back at me though!
152. It’s not going to break the bank - they were £2 bets a piece (at odds of 500/1 for Romney and 750/1 for Bloomberg). At a time of such incredible economic turmoil, and given how McCain seems to be struggling with addressing the issue, my thinking was that to pick with a background as both a successful politician and businessman might be a logical last throw of the dice. These two struck me as good value - if you accept Shadsy’s odds of 10/1, then that would imply that they’d have odds of 44/1 and 70/1 respectively to fill a vacancy.
As far as the pro-choice issue goes, in a normal, full-length campaign, it would undoubtedly be an issue with a lot of people. Were he to be signed up in the last couple of weeks, with a big story dominating the news, it might be less so, and certainly worth the gamble.
if mccain drops palin he loses his base anyway so whether the replacement is pro choice or not becomes a non issue
106. I’ve been interviewed by Mary Riddell. She’s a 100% nasty old bitch, with an added dash of gargoyle.
She’d get rejected from the Union of Crones and Harpies, for being too ugly and mean.
152 etc: a technical question here. Is it actually *possible* to replace the VP candidate at this point? People have been voting in absentee ballots for some time; presumably lots of states have printed all the ballot papers; there must be a deadline for getting on the ballot at all. I suppose the GOP could say “vote McCain/Palin and in view of developments our electors will interpret it as meaning (say)McCain/Huckabee”, but surely that’s not really a practical option unless Troopergate gets much, much worse?
On topic. I would also say it’s genuine. McCain has never been comfortable being Bush III including Rove tactics. Perhaps he realizes he has little to lose at this point being himself. If so, the GOP base is going to hate him very soon.
Electorally, it emphasizes something that has been obvious all along: to the extent that McCain is indeed a “maverick”, he is just that… someone who goes against his party. He hasn’t ever changed the course of the GOP and they won’t follow him. A potential McCain cabinet will be stacked with “proper” Republicans and McCain has no track record of asserting his authority over those.
Finally, those people are a sad reminder of the state of the GOP. In its current incarnation, this is a party that really scares me, top to bottom. When McCain was still running a campaign based on issues, they hated it. They were bored. The party only came to life when Palin started her extreme negativity. Unlike in the days of Reagan, they have no optimistic vision of the country anymore. Instead, they thrive on the hate of the “other” and their definition of “one of us” is someone like Sarah Palin. This election is not only a political issue. The guy who screamed “kill him” frankly deserves to see his party crushed in the polls.
157. As I’ve said before, I think there are two “rights” of the current Republican party. There are the evangelicals, who have a very strong presence in the party, but aren’t as big as people make out. However, the second right are general cultural conservatives, who ARE a very, very big presence (and will be even bigger after moderates continue to leave). It’s the conflating of these two groups that cause a lot of people to misunderstand the GOP’s actions. General cultural conservatives are the people that are extremely dogmatic about the US being a white Christian culture - whilst probably not being able to quote a bible verse. They don’t really think of themselves as racist, it’s just they see all blacks and Hispanics as happening to be radical and damaging to the country’s culture. And they don’t want to pay any of their hard-earned money to what they see as a dangerously socialist government. The difference between these two groups is the difference between Hagee and Coulter.
158. In response to 155.
Also, it should say “to pick a running mate with a background …”
PtP makes a very good point about where the GOP goes from here. In many ways it depends on how bad things get in the economy. It took them two decades to start to recover from the Great Depression (admittedly, not helped by their attitude to getting involved in WWII), and the pendulum didn’t really swing back until Johnson bravely signed away the South with his Civil Rights legislation - and that was only really at presidnential elections; congress has never fully swung back.
149 Lefties use Leftie defined Political Correctness to control debates. Independent thinkers do not recognise their authority to control free speech.
Violent Racism increases with uncontrolled immigration but I refer you to my penultimate post of last night. Read it and have a think about it.
Lighten your day with Bird and Fortune. A nice guide to the credit crisis with a nasty punch at the end.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x684wa_the-last-laugh-george-parr-subprime_fun
149 Your country is your home. It is where you feel safe with your family. It is where you can relax and sleep without fear of attack.
You may invite people into your family. You may take in lodgers and hired help…
But you would not leave the door open so anyone can walk in and take up residence. If you do, eventually, they will be telling you how to live, what you can cook, what you can watch on tv. Eventually, it will not be your home.
I know what Racism is. That isnt Racism. It is common sense.
I just read about Haider. First of all, it’s of course a tragedy. Poor guy, looking at what’s left of that car is not pretty.
From a political perspective, this is probably the end of his party, the BZÖ. This is quite significant for Austrian politics. The BZÖ split from Haider’s old party, the FPÖ, but has recently (i.e. after the last election) started to establish friendlier relations with them. As the architect of the schism, Haider was both a massive roadblock to reconciliation and more or less the sole reason for the BZÖ to exist. Now that he’s gone I would rate the probability of a reunification extremely high.
If that happens, the “FPÖ unified” is the second largest party in Austrian parliament. In other words, we would have the exact same situation as in 1999, only with Strache instead of Haider as leader of the FPÖ. It would only be the exact same in terms of party strength, though. I’m not sure the new conservative leader will opt for entering a coalition with the FPÖ as the weaker partner as Wolfang Schüssel did back then.
Labour is a Trojan Horse.
Labour holds the key to our home.
They dont like us or the way we maintain our lawn.
160 She speaks well of you too, Sean!
163 That was a much more restrained response than I was expecting, Socrates! I could certainly go along with that (epecially as I have things to do now!)
160 When Riddel writes she always comes across as the most extremist reality deny-er. Some on the left like Kettle, or Freedland or even occasionally Toynbee admit that things aren’t perfect, but riddel seems to have a view of the world in her head and regardless of how differs to what is actually happening, to her the real world is the one in her head.
167. Labour’s policy on Muslim extremism has let a similar situation develop. British policy should be to say, here is the line: all British people are subject to the same laws. Bigamy is illegal, sharia law is not the law of the land. Doctors must uncover their arms when working in hospital. etc. Muslims are welcome as long as they respect the same laws as the rest of us. That would be acceptable to most Muslims. Instead they have allowed extremists to determine the terms of the debate, because they fear the racist tag from the usual suspects. It’s deeply divisive and short-sighted policy.
169 My lawns the best its ever been, with all the rain.
John Mcain came across well,obviously it looks like the game is up.
A bit like Major who was genuinely decent to Kinnock after his victory in 92.
However this is before the election result, so says a lot.
5 “unity”
oh dear, you really swallow that line? really?????
Some points from today:
I like seeing McCain return to the visible decency that I always associated with him. Becuase he has been so reliant on the RNC for money, I think this campaign has been a perversion of how he would have liked to have fought it - Lieberman instead of Palin, reaching for the centre not the wings - now there it is looking so unlikely he will win (esp i the RNC cut off money to protect Congressmen and Senators) he has nothing to gain by setting up Palin. He can usher in a disciplined defeat, and unite the country around its new President, acting as Obama’s conscience in the debates. He looked resigned to losing, though I wonder if he might rediscover his hunger if ‘an event’ occurred to make it almost level again in the polls.
The papers and news today read well for Brown - the other G7 countries are looking at following Brown/Darling in their proposals, and with my non-partisan hat on, Brown seems to command much more respect amongst international finance ministers than on PB.com. I can’t yet imagine George Osborne or David Cameron in that role. This is what he was born to do, and he is relishing the chance to do the job that he thinks he was great at - global economic master. Whether he is good enough, or whether anyone is good enough, to manage this crisis I don’t knw - but I actually feel reasonably re-assured seeing him in this setting.
Troopergate hasn’t yielded any surprises - foolish, cack-handed abuse of power, but no illegal activity. I think the report is already factored into Palin’s price on the markets, and don’t consider it significant - do others agree or disagree?
120. “its amazing that Gordon’s buddy can drag up non stories to get a knighthood. He certainly has an amazing lack of scruples and amazing contempt for his readership”
It’s worth noting that if anyone dared to suggest that Cameron isn’t Christ himself they are at the very least astroturfers. Whereas posts like the one above-where it’s taken as red that any praiser of Brown is a liar after a knighthood-passes without comment.
It’s a pity that the Tory bias on here has started to attract such halfwits.
170, 172. She did an interview with me in the Times, when I was just a callow 20-something first-novelist, all wide-eyed, shy and innocent (yes, even I was naive and foolish once - hard to believe).
I couldn’t work out why the Times would be interested in a minor first novel by an unknown, and why in particular they should send one of their more respected reporters to do it.
Turned out she had requested the interview herself - the article was a deliberate hatchet-job - the only reason she wanted to do the interview was as a way of attacking my father.
What a disgusting woman. And she really is repulsively ugly, worse than Jackie Ashley (yes!) - one of those not-quite-deformed women that make you stop in the street and just gawp in horror.
And she has a distinct and unpleasant body odour: a piercing, ammoniac scent, like the temporary urinals after four days at a pop festival.
#126
Also covered off on http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/ was the following on Icelandic Banks:
As noted by good friend Dennis Gartman this morning, “Since then, things have only gotten worse, with the UK government moving to freeze the assets of Icelandic companies in the UK, and Her Majesty’s government has said that it will take whatever further actions it deems necessary to protect the assets of British companies and citizens currently held in Iceland, doing ‘whatever is necessary to recover [our] money.’
“Thus, not only are banks fearful of lending money to banks; and not only are banks fearful of lending money to individuals and/or companies; and not only are individuals and/or companies fearful of lending money to the banks, but now nations are fearful of lending to other nations. This is Smoot-Hawley writ large, and of all of the circumstances that have prevailed in the course of the past several days, this is the worst; this is the most difficult to deal with. This is madness.”
A grotesque post Sean even by your standards.
For Coldstone
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Tesco-Slashing-Price-Of-Petrol-By-3p-Litre-As-Oil-Prices-Fall-To-Lowest-Levels-In-Year/Article/200810215117694?lpos=Business_Third_UK_News_Article_Teaser_Region__2&lid=ARTICLE_15117694_Tesco_Slashing_Price_Of_Petrol_By_3p_Litre_As_Oil_Prices_Fall_To_Lowest_Levels_In_Year
You’re welcome. All that extra revenue we’re reinvested in exploration, new wells, wellwork, is paying off. A glut of oil is about to arrive as demand falls through the floor. Not that you’ll care when we start facing job cuts as the economics of our projects tanks.
And don’t worry. When those new wells eventually fall over, just as demand starts rising again and we get rising prices once more, you can always propose nationalising the Laws of Physics. Damn universe operating according to principles we don’t like. Did you know that 99% of the universe’s neutrons are owned by less than 25% of the universe’s atoms? That’s what we get when we allow free and unfettered enthalpy to rule.
re 177. I’ve finally decided that the only way I’m going to get my knighthood is by going with the Brown camp not the Tories. So watch out for the changes.
pssst Rog - can you put in a good word for me. Cheers
176. I would agree about Troopergate. In general, I think Palin’s position is now firmly established. The GOP base loves her, the independents don’t like her much, the Dem base hates her. Her image won’t change in the next weeks.
177,
Roger its not just a Tory bias, its a anti Brown bias, which includes myself, who never thought he should be PM.(however thought the personal abuse was extreme)
Our host`s obvious dislike, combined with vitrolic hatred of the man,by many tories on here, which I percieve most decent people think starts to go beyond the pale at times.
168. It is odd, though, first Pym Fortuyn, now Jorg Haider. Whenever a charismatic figure emerges on the right and threatens to upset the europhile multiculti social-christian-demo-wanky applecart, that persons suddenly “dies”.
I mean, looking back, what really happened to Hitler? OK, he was arguably a tad extreme in his views, and he certainly ruffled some feathers with his Holocaust thing (the Holocaust was definitely a mistake IMHO), but he was a breath of fresh air in the stuffy salons of European politics. Then suddenly he “dies”. And no one finds the corpse.
Yeah, right. Perhaps he got the flu. Or perhaps “they” got to him.
182. Mike. You should know that Labour are a meritocracy. The days where Jeffrey Archer-’a man of integrity’ according to William Hague of Lake Como-can easily become ennobled doesn’t happen in Brown’s Labour Party.
I would have thought as a man of the people yourself you’d know this?
141 Pim’s different, wasn’t he killed by a psycho Muslim (like Theo van Gogh?)
Yes. Very different.
One was killed by a psycho. One was killed in a car accident.
Yes. Very different.
Who got to him? The masons or the Mary Magdalene lot - could you write a book about it all Sean.
176 Morus, the G7 statement is vague and there is no indication that the other G7 nations will guarantee interbank lending - the statement was actually widely panned on Bloomberg for not being specific enough, however thats little to do with Brown.
Brown himself, yes he is receiving an uncritial press at the moment as the MSM go into Tory mode and also back the government through the crisis - the accounting will come later when the recession bites ad Brown’s failed regulatory framework is seen for what it is. having said that, a lot of socialists will return to the fold and La bour will swing violently left as we approach the election (I believe anyway) - an awful lot of formerly disenchanted Tories are going to come out of the woodwork though to stop the left - whilst regulation will need to be got right, this is no time for the grim unending misery of socialism.
It all depends on how bad things get - recession or depression and Tories should get home ok 41-33ish with a big swing in Scotland to the SNP and a big swing in the marginals away from Labour wit the Lib Dems squeezed out (tax cuts now looks a really bust policy decision unfortuantely). If the narrative turns to anger at Brown enjoying himself too much and swinging too far left and taxing too much and etc etc then a landslide is possible - if the Tories disappear for too long or somehow, some way the economy magically stabilises then a hung parliament or a shock Labour small majority is just about in the realms of reality.
If this goes as bad as it could then who cares? Our lives will be drastiacally different and it probably won’t matter a jot who is in - those lucky enough to have jobs will be fleeced for all they are worth and the world will be teetering form military crisis to crisis with the far right on the march.
Would love to hear Ken’s (and other knowlegable posters in this area) thoughts on this
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4922981.ece
Matthew Parris thinks The Devious One may offer some sort of unity government to the Opposition parties in order to preserve his own job;
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article4922449.ece
The way Matthew writes about Brown makes him sound nothing short of a bullying dictator, so clearly he’s studied The Clunking One well.
177
Some facts we can all agree on
1) Dacre is a friend of Brown.
2) Brown’s friends get rewarded e.g Sion Simon inexplicably becoming the skills minister, Oh wait wasn’t he in the curry house plot.
3) The two stories in todays mail are irrelevent they are part of an orchestrated smear campaign. There are much bigger more important stories that the mail could report on.
So I logically assume that Dacre is working in the best interests of his friend Brown, and Brown is happy to use patronage not based on merit but based on you scratch my back I will scratch yours.
Now if coming to a logical conclusion based on observation and past track record makes me a half-wit then I would rather live in half-wit land than Roger land.
186 Labour is an Neoptistic Aristocracy.
See how many come from actual aristocracy. See how many are married to each other. Then there are the ‘mafias’, the networks of Scots, the gays, the indians the Benns, the Kinnocks, the Millibands.
Keith Vaz finally got his ’special immigration for (people who can cook curry) curry chefs’.
Latest Research 2000/DKos tracker :
McCain 40% .. Obama 52%
Note - Unchanged.
Crosstabs to follow.
186 ‘William Hague of Lake Como’ - Do you have a problem with someone spending their own money to travel somewhere witin the EU to support their wife, Roger of Chateau-le-faux-socialist?
186 “The days where Jeffrey Archer-’a man of integrity’ according to William Hague of Lake Como-can easily become ennobled doesn’t happen in Brown’s Labour Party.”
The days where Mandelson-’a man of integrity’ can easily become ennobled happens in Brown’s Labour Party.
193
What’s Vaz been up to now?
Surely there’s no shortage of people that can cook curry?
188. I’m watching my back, I can tell you.
Hitler, Fortuyn, Haider…. Thomas. It just makes sense.
Like Kennedy J, Kennedy B, Martin Luther King.
Whenever men of hope come along, the forces of darkness take them out. Alan Beith was another one. An inspiring and heroic figure: revolutionary, handsome, burning like a firebrand in his brilliance. Could have been the Abraham Lincoln of Eurasia. Where is he now?
193.
I think, I concur, with Peter the Punter assesment at 149 of your comments.
186
By meritocracy do you mean the appointment of former reject cabinet ministers and short sellers to senior government positions?
Just read this too,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3174217/Financial-crisis-Countries-at-risk-of-bankruptcy-from-Pakistan-to-Baltics.html
The good news just keeps on coming
Crosstabs for the R2k tracker :
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/11
176
Morus, mush as I normally agree with a loy of what you write, I find it impossible to understand why you would feel reassured by the presence of theman who was one of the prime causal factors in getting the UK into this mess in the first place.
It was Brown’s mismanagement of both the economic golden egg he was given in 1997 and also of the regulatory framework that he dismantled and then rebuilt in a completely Heath Robinson fashion which has caused this creisis to be so severe in Britain. Add to that the fact that his first response has been to lash out at others including friendly countries in a vain attempt to deflect attention away from himself and I am afraid you have someone in charge who is the very last person I would ever want to see anywhere near the decision making process.
He and his Treasury team remind me of nothing so much as Mickey, Goofy and Donald trying to clean the clock.
177 - Oh come off it Roger. At least most Labour supporters are honest and consistent enough to say that they hate the fact that the editor of the Daily Mail is so supportive of Gordon Brown.
Whereas you announce that you could never conceive of voting for somebody who joined the Conservative Party in their early twenties, but have no problem about defending one of Maggie’s strongest cheerleaders.
Sean -
178. Glad to see you don’t bear grudges.
185. Haider alive was probably more use to the rest of the political spectrum than him dead given the way he split the further-right wing vote having fallen out with his previous party, as explained by Friedrich at [168]. Schismism is the bane of extremism on both the far right and left and the usual course of events was playing itself out in Austria. Haider’s death is likely to provide a boost for their strength.
Bush spekaing now ‘US taking the lead in dealing with the econmic crisis’ - get in line Brown!! lol
This article seems to know where some of the blame lies
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3174865/Financial-crisis-The-decade-of-debt-is-coming-to-a-bloody-end.html
“Interest rates will continue to fall and those governments that haven’t borrowed to the hilt, unlike our own, will be able to cut taxes to stimulate growth. However, this will all take time – at least 18 months.
What is certain is that we’re entering a new economic reality where debt-fuelled consumption will be cut, trade will fall and jobs lost. It’s been a decade of debt, but also a decade of waste and lost opportunity.”
Note Roger etal, the great leader you keep praising has left us in a very poor position to handle what lies ahead.
92.”Hague travelling with his wife is an outrage. An outrage! This has cost the taxpayer absolutely nothing.
Whatever happened to spending taxpayers’ money on mistresses? Hague’s a disgrace to the political class, with his marriage and lack of public fund wasting.”
111.Agree with your assessment of Aberdeen South and WAK, can honestly see no one being able to nail down Aberdeen South until the returning officer is giving out the results.
205 I think if Sean is right and Riddel did go out of her way to smear him because of his father, Then I have an awful lot of sympathy with his grudge.
That kind of behaviour is just psychopathically evil.
203 - You have to understand, and I am honest about this, economics is not a subject I understand in any detail. I think I understand everything fed to me in the MSM, but I lack the specialist knowledge of many of you on here, for example.
Suffice it to say that, on this issue in particular, I am average man-on-the-street, and from where I’m sat the whole world is in trouble, so I don’t quite see how it’s all Brown’s fault. I don’t know that we are in a worse plce than anywhere else, because I hear that some countries like Iceland might go bankrupt, and we don’t seem to be in that sort of place.
Also, there is a narrative that still persists that Brown was a very good Chancellor, who couldn’t cut it as PM. Tories on here claim that he was actually an awful Chancellor, but not many people said that as loudly during the ten years he was at Number 11, and most of us remember being pretty well off for a decade.
So, in simple terms, this looks like Brown is back in his preferred area of expertise, and that is reassuring, because hearing Brown drone on about complex economics with global leaders reminds us of the good ol’ days. Simplistic? Yes, but more powerful and simple a message than explaining why those ten years were an economic mirage, and actually David Cameron is better placed in an economic crisis than Brown.
It’s a layman’s response, but you’ll find there are more of us laymen in economics than experts.
207 - What Brown’s defenders fail to understand is that the critics are blaming him for all the economic woes in the world. Most of the critics accept that economic woes are inevitable, because that’s the nature of the economic cycle.
What they are quite rightly castigating him for is his complete failure to plan for any economic woes, because he seemed to believe that he had single handedly been able to change the laws of economics.
So he spent when he should have been saving, sold off our gold reserves which are only there because they increase in value in downturns and add to the security of the nation’s borrowing, and allowed a housing bubble to inflate because it would grow forever.
And he has the nerve to criticise bankers who made exactly the same mistakes as he did for “gross irresponsibility” without seeing the obvious hypocrisy in the whole thing.
185. There’s the occasional lefty, too. There were whispers about the death of Hugh Gaitskill - two ‘threads’ as it were - one centred on the Bulgarian Embassy and the other on a more personal (and UK based) bit of howsyerfather.
On thread - sort of.
Who the Americans vote in as President is their business, so far as I’m concerned, and I don’t consider it a subject worthy of debate in the local pub. However, like many I have formed impressions:
McCain - interesting old codger, but he’s left it ten years too late. He’ll probably lose.
Palin - good entertainment value, especially the entertainment derived from the outraged comments of pompous opinionated farts who inhabit websites. I heartily approve of outsiders who turn up and piss in the soup of the self-regarding classes.
Biden - a gaffe-prone nullity.
Obama - well. I don’t like him, I don’t trust him. I get the same gut feeling that I had when Blair was greeted with similar uncritical adulation. He’s gonna be trouble. He is, after all, a product of the Chicago Democratic machine. Says it all, really. And while we have an outline of his life and times, specific details seem remarkably sparse - very odd. Usually the US media can be relied upon to put candidates under the microscope, but not this time. But he’ll probably win.
One aspect of the election that hasn’t been mentioned - McCain could drop off the perch, yes, and Palin would take over - that’s been talked into the ground - but not the fact that Obama generates intense hatred among a considerable number of Americans. The Secret Service will really need to be on the ball - otherwise the US will have a senile old fool as Pres who’ll make Gerald Ford look like a MENSA candidate.
Oops. “…critics are NOT blaming him…”
213 - I had worked out what you meant
185 “Or perhaps “they” got to him.”
I’d heard it was a crack Red Army snatch squad of no more than a million men. Quick in-and-out of Berlin. No-one noticed….
Hugh Hendry is a top fund manager, when he says the this sort of thing then we should all be worried.
Oct. 10, 2008
It feels like the blackest morning — I’m trembling,” said Hugh Hendry, a partner at the U.K. hedge fund Eclectica.
Story continues below ↓advertisement
“I question whether I have a future or whether any of my peer group has a future,” he told CNBC. “We had a sense yesterday that the problem has become bigger than government, so now I struggle to tell you any solutions.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/3172240/BBC-cuts-champagne-and-first-class-air-bill-because-of-soaring-energy-costs.html
Whn I heard the BBC had cut its Champagne order I assumed they had realised which way the next election was likely to go
The Republican campaign is in CRISIS. The poll gap will surely open up to 15% for Obama next week.
McCain has shown a serious misjudgment in selecting Palin. She has become the liability who is now widely disliked even within her own party - women voters are deserting the McCain/Palin ticket in droves - when her selection was intended to attract the female vote.
The news that she has been found guilty of abusing her position combined with the backlash against the smears against Obama has derailed to entire Republican strategy.
As an attack dog she has brought further disgrace to America across the world and IMO has turned off millions of American voters, with her racial overtones attempting to portray Obama as “not like you and me,” and to suggest he is hiding a secret agenda against America.
This election is about prejudice and fear versus fairness and hope.
It is laughable to think that McCain’s comment defending Obama was heart-felt and not a reaction to the backlash to a gutter campaign that has tried to link Obama to terrorism - when McCain knows there is no link.
McCain deserves no credit until it is clear the Republicans have cleaned up their campaign including their adverts that smear Obama. IMO the more desperate Team McCain become, the dirtier they will get.
103.”Also I am not convinced that we are out of the woods. I am now more worried than before the UK package was launched.”
Ken, been following your comments on the economic situation with great interest. That is not a very comforting prediction, just what is it going to take for the markets and Financial sector to calm down and stabilise? Is it simple fear and a lack of trust making an already bad situation worse, or is there more bad news out there still to come to light even after the last few months?
210. “I don’t quite see how it’s all Brown’s fault” - it’s not all Brown’s fault, and he and Labour are and will continue to use that fact to try to escape any blame.
As for your comments about how ‘the guy on the street’ sees it, I’d agree with you. Brown is clearly very happy to be back leading a government response in an area he feels comfortable. He needs to be careful not to be seen to be too happy about it. The public likewise do remember his chancellorship as a prosperous time, and rightly so - it was.
That prosperity was however literally bought at a cost. Both government and individuals lived well beyond their means. They used future income to fund present spending i.e. they borrowed. Now the tap for borrowing has been turned off to the public and they are having to pay the bills. The government isn’t but the reckoning there works in a slightly different way.
Brown was also helped by a largely benign international situation. There were certainly problems at times but they were more than outweighed by the emergence of China as a global manufacturer but not yet a global consumer. That did a great deal to keep prices low when they would normally have risen and prolonged the expansion.
Politically, Labour’s job is to persuade people that things really were as good as they remember, that it was the result of carefully planned policies and that therefore Gordon is the man to deal with the current crisis. The job of the opposition is to persuade people that it was mainly a smoke-and-mirrors trick which has now proved to be a sham and that Brown / Labour either didn’t really understand what was going on or stuck their heads in the sand, while at the same time borrowing and spending uncontrollably - meaning they are the last people who should be allowed at the controls (they also have to persuade the voters that they’d do a better job).
On who wins that debate will probably turn the result of the next election.
New Thread
Cheers,
Morus
184.”Our host`s obvious dislike, combined with vitrolic hatred of the man,by many tories on here, which I percieve most decent people think starts to go beyond the pale at times.”
Its a very wide and mixed coalition of people who are not impressed with Gordon Brown, including many within the Labour party. No one would disagree that the three biggest figures in the party who rose to prominence under Tony Blair were Brown, Reid and Cook. And yet Brown had already fallen out with the other two during his time in Scottish politics…
Maybe some on here need to get things into perspective and remember that other Prime Ministers before Brown got hard time in the press and from supporters of other parties. Being able to handle criticism and deal with a sometimes hostile reception was something that Mrs Thatcher had to be able to cope with almost from day one of her leadership. And she had a mobile rent a mob following her around most of her premiership.
This election has the feel of Bob Dole except Dole was a better candidate. McCain ought to be beating BHO like a rented mule. McCain on The View beaten to a pulp, how Presidential was that? Palin will have to carry him across the finish line. After hearing McCain slobber over “Obama being a he is a decent guy and would make a fine President” it appears McCain is conceding and campaigning for Obama. The GOP party bulls have foisted this man on us when there were so many better candidates. Has McCain even mentioned ACORN? It is theft in plain sight.