Are we being prepared for Gord’s retirement?
October 12th, 2008
Would his failing eyesight be the reason?
In the early of this morning the poster Diogenes linked to the above story and asked the questions “Is this significant? Is it a potential route to a graceful early retirement?”
I’ve been thinking about it hard for the past few hours and believe that he might be onto something. Certainly it would be a valid reason for him to go and certainly it would explain the very clear change in his whole demeanour since he got back from his longish (for him) summer holiday.
Just read Melissa Kite’s story and ask yourself why is this coming out now? Just recall Brown’s Manchester party conference speech when he was introduced by his wife Sarah and had the real feel of a valedictory.
Just think about the timing. He could announce it in the next few weeks, stay in post while a successor is chosen and the structures to deal with the global crisis are put in place, and he could also watch the opinion poll reversal back in Labour’s direction.
He would go out a hero with his reputation in the Labour movement’s history books intact. He would also not have to go through the gruelling and possibly humiliating experience of leading Labour to defeat in a general election campaign.
It all fits, the reason would be totally valid and would invoke a massive amount of sympathy and understanding. I could see Labour’s poll ratings get very close to the Tories during the “handover” . Would it affect the general election - it just might?
There are lots of betting markets including the “general election party leaders” and the next Labour leader.
UPDATE: YouGov poll further detail. This is now available here
From what you have seen, do you think Gordon Brown is handling the financial crisis well or badly? BADLY 37% to 29%Gordon Brown was a successful Chancellor, and he has the experience needed to steer Britain’s economy through this crisis. DISAGREE 47% - 37% AGREE
Gordon Brown mismanaged Britain’s public finances when he was Chancellor, and he will use the crisis as an excuse for raising taxes. AGREE 49% - DISAGREE 34%
Do you think Gordon Brown is doing well or badly as prime minister? BADLY 65% - WELL 31%
Who would you trust more to raise you and your family’s standard of living? Cameron-Osborn 34% - Brown-Darling 25%
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Mike … Brown spent 10 years hankering after this job. He will not be retiring this side of a General Election. Almost everyone I speak to thinks he’s handling this crisis well. This seems to be reflected for now in the voting pattern polls. That’s the logical outflow of the economic competence question which some of us suggested was the real litmus test. A friend of mine who detests Labour and Brown said, without prompting, that Brown is doing the right thing (but added he should have done it a year ago).
The story has appeared in the Telegraph. One wonders if it’s more significant that they are a little rattled by Labour’s handling of the crisis.
Brown’s closing the gap on the Tories. It’s not perhaps the narrative some expected. Interesting times!
But he seems to be having the time of his life, positively revelling in it right now.
BBC lead “story” (which has no discernible news content) is that he will “lead from the front”. Great propaganda for him.
Thsi is his moment, he will not want to leave whilst the crisis is still on, just seems so implausible. I don’t like him, but even I don’t think it would be a good idea at the moment, and would contradict the reasons he rebuffed the leadershp challenge talk.
It was not time for a novice 3 weeks ago, surely that hasn’t changed.
1: Not sure I see the polls as having moved significantly.
Utterly baffled by the “he was a good chancellor” numbers
Mqybe it’ll take a few hundred thousand more unemployed.
Economic “growth” based on borrowing from the future does not mean he was a good chancellor, quite the opposite.
re 1. The economic confidence test in the detail of the YouGov poll is pretty dreadful for Gordon.
From what you have seen, do you think Gordon Brown is handling the financial crisis well or badly? BADLY 37% to 29%
Gordon Brown was a successful Chancellor, and he has the experience needed to steer Britain’s economy through this crisis. DISAGREE 47% - 37% AGREE
Gordon Brown mismanaged Britain’s public finances when he was Chancellor, and he will use the crisis as an excuse for raising taxes. AGREE 49% - DISAGREE 34%
Do you think Gordon Brown is doing well or badly as prime minister? BADLY 65% - WELL 31%
See - http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results.htm
The first lemming over the cliff is “leading from the front”.
4: Thanks - misread it! I had remembered the 49:34 as only about him being a good chancellor.
You are right they are not brilliant and will IMHO get worse as a recession bites.
Any idea what the figures were say 3-4 years ago? I guess his “good chancellor” ratings then were much higher?
3. The opposition parties are not really making the case at the moment though. Whether that’s a deliberate choice not to rock the boat at a time of severe economic uncertainty (and so be accused of contributing to the problem), or a failure to get the message heard an across doesn’t really matter.
One possible scenario that might bear consideration is a May election next year. Suppose Brown does step down on health grounds. Surely an election straight away would be by far the most sensible option? I don’t think it likely though - Brown will probably have to be dragged out while he still thinks that there’s work for him to do.
I hope he doesn’t go out in this way.
With the amount of damage he has done to the country and the lives of millions of people he deserves to face the electorate and be humiliated. Anything else would be an injustice.
BUT… and for me it is a big but….
I also wouldn’t wish blindness, deafness or other such incapacity on my worst enemy so on a human level I also hope this is not true and that he retains his eyesight.
4. But I think the key question is the economic competence one i.e. which party is better placed to handle the economy. Labour wins on that at the moment. It’s not that people will say Labour are doing well with it, it’s that they are more trusted than the untried Cameron ticket. That’s the key.
re 4. I’ve now put these in as an update to the main story.
Today’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll sees the worst performance by the Scottish Liberal Democrats that I can ever recall. I think that the crisis in the ecomony is going to really thump the Lib Dems, the Greens and other fringe parties as they get totally squeezed out by the big parties.
It also calls into question Mike’s controversial “clear trend” statement of a few days ago. We have had 6 recent Scottish sub-samples: 3 YouGov’s, a ComRes, a Populus and an ICM. 4 have had the SNP ahead, and 2 Labour ahead.
YouGov/Sunday Times
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
(% change from UK GE 2005)
SNP 38% (+20%)
Lab 36% (-3%)
Con 21% (+5%)
LD 5% (-18%)
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/results.htm
re 9. But see:-
Who would you trust more to raise you and your family’s standard of living? Cameron-Osborn 34% - Brown-Darling 25%
11: Lib Dems dreadful again
Any reason Stuart? (I could come up with many, but I’m guessing there must be Scotland-specific ones, as they are not losing that amount of support in the UK as a whole)
How many Scottish seats have the Lib Dems got? It’s quite a lot isn;t it? 9?
4. Labour’s rebound is not down to a huge rediscovered faith in Gordo. So what is it?
As someone who predicted the post-coferenbce Tory leads we are seeing now - 10-15% - rather than the 15-20% leads predicted by our usually infallible host (sorry Mike) I think I may be allowed a guess.
I was out in Bangkok with some guys last night. All were Brits, several of them were fairly hardcore longterm Labour voters. A few weeks ago these blokes were spitting tacks about Labour - “I’ll never vote for them again, Brown is a lying coward etc etc”.
There was a change in tone this time. They still think Brown is a lying coward, however they feel he is doing OK in the present crunch. But this very slight warming to Brown is not what’s changed their attitude.
The economy has changed their outlook. They believe the crunch is totally global/American in origin - and they are wholly immune to the arguments (clear enough to me, and others) that Brown and Labour are responsible for making Britain more vulnerable to the downturn than other economies.
Moreover, their reaction is visceral - “this is a crisis of capitalism, I am basically a socialist, I was right all along, I’m gonna vote Labour again/we mustn’t let the capitalist Tories back in”.
I think that is the key to the Labour rebound. It’s a return to the fold of basically lefty voters who abandoned the party during the later Blair years and the disastrous Brown election/10p tax fiascos. Because, when all is said and done, these people are leftwing and anti-capitalist - and the nasty banker-hugging Tories are to blame for anything bad that happens in a market economy even if they aren’t actually in power.
Tories may bemoan the unfairness of this, but it’s just a fact. Add in public sector workers/poor people who are now simply scared of unemployment/greater poverty - and who fear the Tories will look after them less well in a recession - and you have the entire explanation for Labour’s rebound.
But I don’t think Tories should despair. For several reasons:
1. Mandelson is hated, as the polls show. His kidney stone, for which one must feel some sympathy (fancy being stuck inside that guy?) has kept him off the airwaves. When he returns this will be bad for Labour.
2. Incumbency during a recession will, eventually, grind down Labour’s support. It’s very hard to vote for a government which seems to have sent the country down the khazi. It happened in 1992, but isn’t that the only time?
3. The feeling of Time For A Change is still out there - hence the ongoing 10% Tory leads. This will probably grow over the next eighteen months. Most people still want Labour out.
So it’s a volatile situation. Short term I think Labour will edge back, within striking distance of the Tories; long term Labour must surely lose support again.
Cameron’s main fear must be that Brown will engineer a snap/crisis election in the next six months, perhaps in some weird coalition with the LDs.
For that reason I think Cammo should stop being bipartisan, put the knucklers back on, and lay into the lying one-eyed Scot - he needs to stop this Labour resurgence in its tracks: and pin the economic blame on Mister No More Boom and Bust.
So far Cameron has failed to do this, in his Etonian feyness. He should bring back working class David Davis to help.
BTW I think the eyesight story is eyewash. An attempt to drum up sympathy for the Dear Leader.
13. Jon C
The Scottish Lib Dems have 12 seats (11 from the GE in 2005 plus Dunfermline & West Fife by-election gain).
Can I come back to you on this? I just wanted to post something else first.
12 absolutely Mike, Brown is scoring higher in polls to sort out this crisis - as he should as current PM and architect of the failing regualtory system. The longer term economic figure is more mixed with Cameron/Osborne slightly ahead in the most recent polls.
Brown’s record as chancellor has been scotched, however people still want nurse to sort them out in the short term.
As to the thread itself - maybe, he has been an awful PM, so retiring is probably his best bet.
Will Governor Palin be impeached?
When is the third presidential election debate?
re 11. Stuart - You are mis-interpreting me big-time. The point I was making in that earlier post is that the changes in Labour’s position have been more in its heartlands than elsewhere. Just go back and look at what Labour was getting in Scotland and the north through the summer. The move, I was suggesting, is disproportionate and the latest poll backs that up.
re 16. I am sorry but you are reading the numbers wrongly. By 37% to 29% he is seen to be handling the crisis badly.
“Are we being prepared for Gord’s retirement?”
Probably.
… and to be followed by a snap general election? -
Some Labour MPs believe he will go to the country. “I’ve got June 2009 pencilled in,” says one.
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Crisis-for-the-economy-means.4583394.jp
When’s MORI out. It’ll be quite interesting to see how that looks in comparison. I highly doubt the Tories will be over 50%, but even high 40s will begin to look like an outlier. Else, there will be a startling drop that will give Gabble a three hour boner.
What do we know about Haider’s accident ?
Dr David Kelly territory ?
Judging by the photographs, it looks more like David Penhaligon territory.
——
our Euro-meisters must be obeyed!
As some of our left-wing contributor’s would say, Zei…[editted...]!
What does “Zei…” mean? Zeitung? Zeichnung? Zeige? (???)
——
any conspiracy theory that is dependent on the victim undermining his own chances of survival is a non-starter.
Such is the fundamental weakness of the “Diana was murdered” theory.
It also reminds me of one of the details of the Lee Harvey Oswald story: if Jack Ruby was sent to silence LHO in order to hide a conspiracy, it required LHO to co-operate in the timing of his own murder. If he had not caused a delay by stopping to change his shirt before going through the public area, he would have been out of the way before Jack Ruby was even in the police building.
——
Whenever men of hope come along, the forces of darkness take them out. Alan Beith was another one. An inspiring and heroic figure: revolutionary, handsome, burning like a firebrand in his brilliance. Could have been the Abraham Lincoln of Eurasia. Where is he now?
Alan Beith? Shurely that’s a misprint for Harpal Brar?
——
Bush states no nation will benefit by acting at the expense of another in this crisis - a swipe at the Iceland position?
Er… isn’t “one nation benefiting at the expense of another nation” what imperialism is all about?
re 21. I think we will see MORI in the next fortnight. It certainly will not have a 28% Labour deficit.
Remember when assessing Labour in opinion polls the record going back to the 1980s is that the one with the party in the least favourable position is the most accurate.
19 You misunderstand me Mike (curse my incomprehensible dribblings of a Sunday Morn) - I am referrfing to the 33/27 lead on who the people trust to SORT the crisis (Brown/Darling) - I fully agree Brown has poor ratings on the economy and a busted record as chancellor outside of this.
The electorate think Brown and Darling are best placed to clean up their own mess and after it is cleared they will be asked to leave.
Why doesn’t GB wear glasses? Is his poor eyesight of a different type that they wouldn’t help?
Unfortunately the article is from “flying a kite” Melissa, the one who frequently predicts Tory reshuffles completely wrong.
The story is coming out to try and make Brown look more human. Just spin.
12. That’s not the same question.
Mike I do think you are exposing yourself here to the same critique you have levelled at pollsters. There’s something of a psephological sleight of hand going on here, which verges on the disingenuous.
18. Mike, please do not force me to cut and paste your exact statements. I am not “misinterpreting” what you said at all. You made a very eyebrow-raising, bold statement in a thread a few days ago. When asked for evidence to back up your bold statement, you produced next to none. Let’s let bygones be bygones on this one.
I agree with your premise that Labour seem to be doing worse in the marginals and better in their heartlands lately (BUT it is still too early to call that one definitively), but you know fine well that that is not what I was talking about.
17: Hard to imagine Alaskan Republicans impeaching their popular Republican governor.
Third debate is on Wednesday. (Small hours of Thursday UK time, presumably.)
24 and to clarify - they are not thrilled at the prospect of them doing it, its more ‘well you did it, you sort it’
re 28 Let’s call this a score draw Stuart but my original piece started with a long health warning.
In theme with the previous post, Gordon Brown is toast, and any Labour bounce will be transient. It’s the economy, stupid!
The UK economy is expected to grow by 0.1% next year. This means the recession (which by NBER-standards begun in April, though “technically” will exist in FY2008/9 Q4) will last five-to-six quarters.
Factor in continuing house-prices falls, rising taxes and public-sector cuts, the future election will see a comfortable Tory majority. I think Nick Palmer has hinted of this earlier this morning. I also sense he finds Gabble and Roger as annoying as most of us…!
This, following on from the Daily Mail interview, starts like the start of a concerted campaign.
32. ‘It’s the economy stupid’ though is all about which party is most trusted to handle it. The Conservatives won despite recessions and downturns: tough medicine ahead and all that. If you can convince the electorate that 1. it’s not your fault and 2. you are best placed to steer the ship through the storm then you have a fighting chance. And that’s as far as I’d want to go with Labour at the moment - they have a fighting chance.
The notion that Brown is about to retire is utterly risible.
25
He is already blind in one eye from what I believe was a childhood accident? If he is suffering from normal long or short sightedness then glasses wouod help. Other stuff like macular degeneration probably wouldn’t be helped by glasses.
The eyesight thing is pure Labour sympathy spin.
I hope he retains sufficient sight to see the faces of all those who have, or are about to have, their homes repossessed and their businesses go to the wall.
14: good post.
Interesting that the old “tribal” view of left-right persists so much. How much of this is a generational thing? I am 34, and labour as a properly left-wing party is (almost) before my time. Will this be a less and less significant factor in years to come?
BBC website has some selective coverage of this poll in an insert box on the ‘Brown will save the world’ story - it states his standing has improved, quotes the 33/27 figure as evidence that the British people trust him and Darling more on the economy, ignoring all the other figures and that browns personal rating has improved - qualifying that by saying ‘he is still -34 though’ as if thats pretty good really.
Still, the Beeb have a policy of not reporting polls - well, not in full, or accurately.
31.
A score draw against the great Mike Smithson? I’ll take my one point and be happy.
Just a shame the national side couldn’t get those 3 points out of Norway yesterday. I fear that Scotland are unlikely to be making an appearance in South Africa in the World Cup in 2010 either…
38. After last week’s NOW marginals poll you can understand why the BBC is reluctant to give too much prominence to them.
14. SeanT - “… put the knucklers back on, and lay into the lying one-eyed Scot…”
Would you use such pugilistic language for a lying one-eyed Jew? Or a lying one-eyed woman? Or a lying one-eyed Englishman?
Seat T would, most certainly.
42. Yeah, you’re probably right.
That particular poll was taken while stock markets were crashing, and all talk was of crisis. If next week there’s a feeling that melt down has been averted, and the bottom has at least been reached. If Brown is seen as played a significant role in the stabilisation of the situation, the polls could reflect that.
However, all third term governments will struggle to overcome, the, ‘time for a change’ feeling.
41
Always refer to seant as a ‘Tamar Wetback’ the de-frocked Cornish hate that!
41. lol. Yes, of course I would.
Given that I am happy to call myself an amoral whoremongering previously smack-addicted Cornish sex memoirist ex-rape-defendant with a history of prison time, I regard everyone else as fair game.
‘Scotland is safer in UK, says Labour’
With Gordon Brown certain to break with convention and campaign in Glenrothes…
Last night Lindsay Roy, the Labour candidate, said Gordon Brown’s push for a proposed merger of HBOS and LloydsTSB would not have been possible if Scotland had been a separate country. ‘There is no question that people are better off with Scotland as part of the UK. Here in Fife, there are almost 2,000 people employed by HBOS,’ said Roy. ‘Imagine the devastation that would be caused to those families if Scotland were separated from the rest of the UK. Alex Salmond said that he wants Scotland to be like Ireland and Iceland. Ireland is in recession and Iceland is bankrupt. That shows that the SNP ideas for Scotland’s economy fall far short of the strength we get by being part of the UK. I don’t want Scotland to be part of the arc of insolvency.’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/12/labour-scotland
So, let me get this right: the UK’s economic troubles are all due to the “global” crisis, and nothing at all to do with UK government policy over the last eleven years. However, Ireland’s and Iceland’s economic troubles are entirely due to them being independent states. Err…
I await the applications from the Icelandic and Irish governments applying/reapplying to join the United Kingdom with baited breath. Who next? Perhaps Canada and New Zealand want to re-join this wonderful Union too? Is Barack Obama preparing his application form as we speak? Why stop there? Perhaps Flanders could become the fifth country of the Union? Hell, we can get to 51 members before the USA can…
41 SeanT is an equal-opportunity insulter. He just does it with a side-order of relish for those who get upset about it.
I take back all defence of some of these “Icelandic Councils”. It turns out that many of them have been investing in the last month! It’s one thing if they put their money on fixed rate deals several months ago, but what the hell were they doing? Haringey put £5m in last week, AFTER Glitnik had collapsed. Incredible!
47. I think if Iceland or Ireland did go into a massive and severe slump (and not just a recession) the idea of them joining a
larger union would not be entirely ludicrous.
Presumably Ireland would join the UK; and Iceland might unite with Norway or Denmark (from whom they only seceded in 1944).
You seem to think this is impossible, that history only points one way: to the secession of statelets into ever smaller nations justified on grounds of geography, culture, language, slightly greater propensity for wearing plaid, &c.
Clearly this is nonsense. Ancient nations also unite, successfully, especially in times of great economic stress. For an example we only have to look at, er, Scotland - which united with England after the Darien disaster had bankrupted your shivering little province with its “neeps” and its “tatties”, forcing you into a very grand and successful union which, I think, is now much more secure than it was two weeks ago. Sorry about that.
FWIW If I had any gonadical apparatus at all, in relation to betting, I would possibly put a small wager on Labour holding Glenrothes. Are the odds still very heavily against Labour holding that seat? If they are, that’s a good bet, in my ‘umble opinion.
1) Unity cabinet reshuffle - check
2) Health story starts to percolate out - check
Yes, I could well believe that we are being teed up for a retirement on health grounds next year.
The detail of these opinion poll figures is pretty depressing for Labour. On the area that they had hoped to turn the tables on the Tories, they significantly trail them in every respect. Their rise in the poll, however, does suggest that some voters regard Gordon Brown as a Giffen good (just as I had hypothesised earlier in the week).
The Lib Dems are, of course, being squeezed, which is only to be expected of untried parties in tough economic times. They have done well to hold onto 14% and should thank Vince Cable for that. The SNP must thank their lucky stars that they are in power in Scotland or the same would have happened to them.
46 - How do you fit that on your business cards?
46
Which of course is why seant is such a supporter of, ‘The Party of Family Values’
With that CV you should be a Tory MP!
The Mail doesn’t disappoint, its got one of its usual stories connecting Cameron and Co. with the cityspivs.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1076710/Tory-champagne-ice-lavish-reception-cancelled.html
Is it not also possible that this is just a ploy to make Brown seem more human and gain a sympathetic hearing from the public?
More important than global financial collapse is my mighty victory in fastest lap betting whilst asleep. Sadly laid Massa at 3.5, but still made a profit of few pounds (25% of the total stake I’d put down).
I can’t see McBean going quietly unless he was near an election and certain to lose. On the other hand, Mandy and Campbell in the library with a candlestick…
50. SeanT - “Are the odds still very heavily against Labour holding that seat?”
Glenrothes by-election - best prices:
SNP 4/11 (Sporting Bet)
Lab 9/4 (Ladbrokes)
Con 100/1 (Ladbrokes and Sporting Bet)
LD 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Still no Betfair market on Glenrothes.
Is 9/4 good enough odds for you Sean? Shadsy would appreciate the modest boost to his pension fund.
53 The Mail is a joke - pompous, self-satisfied, arrogant, irritating, bile-filled pile of crap.
‘Tories cancel reception that could be seen as insensitive, Mail outraged that champagne was ever available anywhere given the possibility that shares can go down in value as well as up’
Dacre should be dragged through the streets behind a cart full of cash, champagne and caviar by bowler hat wearing psycho-bankers - affectionately known as the loan-crushers, the cash and grabs, the lucre spooks etc etc
52. I don’t. I just link people to my memoirs.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Millions-Women-Are-Waiting-Meet/dp/0747585563/ref=ed_oe_p
BTW for those interested in Thai politics (what, only me?) we are expecting another revolution here tomorrow. Apparently the anti-democratic party of democrats, who actually want to take away the vote, are gonna launch an attack on the police, who are defending the democratic government of corrupt elitists - who want to defend the right to bribe the people in elections.
Meanwhile the rest of the country yawns. This must be the most boring revolution on record.
Thailand really is a very strange place. Someone said to me last night that it was basically fascist, but I think that’s wrong - and harsh. I was in Malaysia last week and that feels much more repressive and sinister - much closer to real menacing autocracy.
No, Thailand is not fascist. It’s a feudal country, with wifi.
Details of UK bank bailout are expected tomorrow morning at around 7:00am - FTSE may be suspended as investors absorb the news:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4926316.ece
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
re 56. Stuart - I hate betting odds-on. Should I be risking a pile on Labour? That 9/4 looks good and is what I got on the SNP in Glasgow East.
59 quite possible if Brown manages to sell his one-size-fits-all bailout to the EU and the Americans take a similar line that several trillion pounds of taxpayer money will be at risk - say a half trillion of direct investment into banks or more and several trillion in guarantees and liquidity funding with several trillion at risk in these credit swaps.
This goes one way only if it even smells of failure - mass unrest and the rise of the far right.
At least, thats one of the worst case scenarios - there are plenty of others.
51. antifrank - “The SNP must thank their lucky stars that they are in power in Scotland or the same would have happened to them.”
Valid point. The very narrow Holyrood win last May is going to have mighty repercussions way beyond the small lead the SNP achieved in the popular vote.
The squeaking of Cunninghame North by just 48 votes, and David Thompson’s last-second exposure of the Returning Officer’s hi-jinx on the Highlands & Islands list vote are, in retrospect, going to be major turning points in Scottish political history.
50 SeanT
Glenrothes is a tough call and 9/4 wouldn’t attract me.
This is not the market on which to lose your betting virginity.
60. I think 9/4 is VALUE.
With Labour’s rebound and the credit crunch, and poor old near-blind Gordon prepared to personally totter around Glenrothes tapping voters with his white stick, Labour have got to have a better chance than 2/1 against winning a seat - a seat where they have a 10,000 majority, let’s remember.
The mood has changed since Glasgow East. And the SNP are looking a little panicky and winded by events (from my possibly warped London/Bangkok perspective!)
Andrew Rawnsley’s column in the Observer is spot on this week:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/12/gordonbrown-labour
Lots of good stuff in it, the single best summation of current politics that I have read.
64, read on ceefax that Salmond wants the UK to give Scotland £1bn. Oh, how I laughed.
46. Cornish!?! Don’t you think you should be hanging your head in shame and hiding in a cupboard, instead of flaunting your Celtic perversions in public on a respectable website like this? Here was I thinking that you were an ordinary decent civilized sex-maniac, and yet you boast about such unnatural deviations as Cornishness?! Bring Back Mary Whitehouse! It’s Political Correctness Gone Mad! Whatever next? Luxembourg? Perhasp it’s happened already……
63. Don’t worry Peter, I’m not going to bet. As you know I only bet on sure things (i.e. like offering Stuart a bet the SNP won’t win their independence referendum in 2010 - a bet he sensibly refused).
However I offer am happy punters the modest crumbs of my wisdom and insight, for what they are worth (possibly nothing), and I do think 9/4 is slightly generous. I’d put Labour more like 7/4 or even 6/4.
Remember they do have a relatively massive majority in Glenrothes. And, as I understand it, a fairly credible candidate.
The SNP are still slight favourites, but 9/4 against Labour pulling it out of the bag? Hm.
57
Yeah! not bad for a newspaper that was always the Tory party’s house magazine.
Now I know the world has turned upside down, I’m reading this in the, ‘Bellylarf!’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3180292/Financial-crisis-Nationalisation-is-no-longer-a-dirty-word.html
Energy Next!
54
Should’ve got on Alonso @16/1…
62. David Thompson’s last-second exposure of the Returning Officer’s hi-jinx on the Highlands & Islands list vote
What??? Details please!
65 The public are entitled to be incandescent with the discredited titans of finance, not one of whom has yet offered a single word of public remorse or apology for what they have done.
That list includes Gordon Brown.
The usual Pb.com answer to a thread Question applies - No.
The Melissa Kite story is a rehash of the Daily Mail interview - nothing new from what was published yesterday so I doubt it there is a deliberate attempt to lay the grounds for resignation. In the original it was Damian McBride, in an “aside”, who seems to have pushed the story, I think more for the purpose of gaining sympathy for Brown and excusing the clumsiness and dressing/makeup mistakes.
It does look like a deliberate piece of the re-launch operation- many blogs suffered from Dirty European Socialist posting on the subject incessantly earlier this year, Brown gave us the second part of his eye operation story in his speech - together with the loss of his daughter and illness of his second son - “he doesn’t like to talk about it” but invariably does in these soft interviews. I do feel sympathy and It does provide a more rounded view of the man, but need he and his acolytes be so hypocritical in their attacks on Cameron when they do the same?
In the end it isn’t his eyesight, his personal tragedies nor those of his children that matter to voters but the impact of his policies, and those look like resulting in a lot of pain and suffering for many.
seant, I think you’re being a little naive on the prospect of another Union of the Parliaments.
First, how the hell would a new union of the UK and the Republic work? Given that the UK is as dire (thanks Gordo) as Ireland is, we certainly wouldn’t be seeing a return to pre-1922 with a United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. Ireland wouldn’t rejoin the UK, but rather a merging would have to take place whereby the new nation would be a synthesis of the UK and Republic. The Cross of St. Patrick would not be ample representation of Ireland in the flag for example when the Irish don’t like that particular old Irish symbol. Also, what kind of state would it be? Don’t expect the Irish to give up Republicanism easily and nor would we be expected to give up our Monarchy (such an act is treason after all).
Second, Ireland never looked back after secession despite 60 years of being a basket case. They also learned to make good of themselves on their own. They’ll think it can be done again.
Thirdly, it is ingrained in Irish culture that the British are a bit dodgy, what with Penal Laws and famines and such. Sure, the Irish are over it by now, but if we start talking about Ireland under British dominion, then that legacy will resurface. Irish independence is a big thing in their psyche. After two generations of prosperity, they’re not about to give it up because of a couple of bumpy years.
Fourthly, two words: Irish Neutrality. That was one of the reasons why they rejected Lisbon. They thought the stuff about defence would commit Ireland to taking sides in wars. Irish Neutrality is quite important to them.
Fifthly, two more words: Northern Ireland. The nationalist community would be pissed off and the unionists would be scared too since having the Catholic block join the nation would leave them at a disadvantage when the Irish got a hankering for independence again. All hell could break loose.
Sixthly, Boston. I’m sure there’d be a fair few “Irish” Americans willing to pour money to punishing those evil British for unifying with the Irish. Would we consider worth the trouble?
70, hey, I made a profit so I’m happy. Formula 1 result spoilers below:
Unbelievable Alonso won another though. Just read a brief report and Massa and Hamilton had penalties, but what the hell happened to Raikonnen, or even Kovalainen[sp]?
72 - That thought crossed my mind too. However, at the next election, I don’t think most members of the public will cast their votes on the past (whether Gordon Brown’s role in causing the problem or his role in sorting it out). They will mostly cast their votes on the basis of who they think will be best to run the country in the future. That is Labour’s problem and that is Labour’s opportunity.
I don’t know if any of you have looked at the Lottery Numbers they are:-
20 21 23 24 27 28
I know the odds remain the same, but the probability of six numbers all in their 20’s and consecutive groups of two, being drawn?
Its an Omen!
68 “The SNP are still slight favourites, but 9/4 against Labour pulling it out of the bag? ”
Maybe, but any value is slight, and I like my value ladelled on in thick juicy lumps, like home-made marmalade.
Some people took the 4/1 that was around a while back and that did tempt me, but I’d want more encouragement than 9/4 before delving in the mudpools of Scottish parliamentary by-elections.
Pass.
The polling companies put the Conservatives on 42-45%, 10-15% ahead of Labour, and Labour’s local by-election results remain dismal, so they’ve really got nothing to celebrate. Their poll ratings are very bad, as opposed to catastrophic, that’s all.
77, Labour’s polling in 2009?
74 There would be more benefit (and much less animosity) to the idea of Ireland becoming the 51st State of the USA than being swallowed up by the Brits.
74 - How about the reverse - an Irish take over of the UK? The Republic of IONA*? An expanded Dail, a house in Dublin … makes becoming a TD sound very attractive!
* Islands Of the North Atlantic
77 - You are kidding, aren’t you? I played the lottery for a few months when it started and always chose 5 lines of consecutive numbers in the 20s with a break of one (eg 20, 21, 23, 24, 25, 26). I’d have made a fortune this week if I’d carried it on.
Hey ho.
Anyone thinking of betting on Glenrothes simply MUST watch this:
‘Politics Now (Part 1) - Thursday, September 25 ‘
http://video.stv.tv/bc/news-politics-now-version4-edit-20080929/
The Lindsay Roy and Peter Grant interview is from about 5 minutes 30 seconds. After watching it, you may wish to consider laying off any Labour Glenrothes bets you may have made…
Apparently that was Roy’s 3rd attempt -> his first two were unbroadcastable.
74. Come come. What I said was this “if Iceland or Ireland did go into a massive and severe slump (and not just a recession) the idea of them joining a larger union would not be entirely ludicrous.”
I’m not exactly predicting its just around the corner. I’m saying it’s “not entirely impossible” IF there was a massive crashing Depression - with 30-50% unemployment etc etc. i.e. I’m talking the kind of extreme national bankruptcy which led, not uncoincidentally, to the Union of the Scottish and English crowns.
I accept Ireland is a fairly unlikely case even then (but not impossible - I’ve been to Dublin recently and it just feels more British than it used to, oddly enough - maybe this is because religion is no longer such a divisive issue).
Iceland rejoining Denmark is more likely, I’d say (ditto Greenland).
As for the UK, I can indeed foresee some quite likely reunifications if the banking crisis continues. To wit: Gibraltar, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands have recently done quite well, as political entities under the British crown but outwith the UK - and functioning as offshore banking centres.
If these forms of income dry up, these crown colonies may wish to be incorporated into the UK wholesale.
77 What is truly odd is that here were 11 winners! The power of “lucky” birthdays, I guess….
85 - Sean, Ireland is already a member of a larger Union - the EU.
87. A Union, however, with which they have just rejected closer ties.
86
That,s amazing I expected a rollover!
60. Mike - “Should I be risking a pile on Labour?”
I’m not saying nothin!
69 *shudder* socialists, ugh. lol
86 - Not that odd. There must be 11 people who think like me. My line of logic was that if I was going to play the National Lottery, I needed to choose combinations that no one else would use (so I didn’t have to share the winnings). How could I do that? By choosing consecutive numbers, because everyone instinctively avoids them. But then I thought “there will be other people who think like me”. So I put breaks in them - asymmetrically, because I reckoned anyone who got that far in their thinking would break them symmetrically. It appears that there are quite a few people out there who think similarly.
Good Morning PBers Worldwide and in Nottinghamshire !!
An unearthly hour on a Sunday to be posting !!
Meanwhile ….
Latest Zogby/Reuters tracker :
McCain 42.8% .. Obama 48.9%
Note - Yesterday - M-43.8/O-47.6
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1583
90 - Double negative!
It could also have been leaked to embarass and pressure the man.
The BBC really is shameless. Brown will ‘lead from the front’ is doing the man’s bidding for him whilst the piece contains details of the YouGov poll - but cherry picks only the most favourable statistics for Brown.
re 90. Stuart - you can drop me a private email if you like.
seant,
To be pedantic, the Union of Crowns was the result of the King of Scotland inheriting the throne of the England. You’re talking about the Union of the Parliaments.
The Scandinavian countries unifying may be more likely. I don’t know so much about them, but I’ve not heard of the same bitter breakup that Ireland and the UK had.
I’m not sure what you’re saying about the Crown Dependencies. They are already properties of the Crown outside of the UK. What change in their relationship would you be anticipating?
50. Can you name any country that has ever asked to rejoin with its previous partner after independence. What rubbish, Ireland was many times poorer when it got out of the UK and I doubt being poor would ever make it want back in, what a laugh.
New PPP poll for Colorado :
McCain 42% .. Obama 52%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_1011_Colorado.pdf
32
“The UK economy is expected to grow by 0.1% next year. This means the recession (which by NBER-standards begun in April, though “technically” will exist in FY2008/9 Q4) will last five-to-six quarters.”
I don’t know which forecast you are quoting.
Any - ANY- suggestion that the economy will grow next year is worthy of total and utter derision.
1.The Financial sector accounts for 10% of our GDP. Its output is likely to fall 1-2% next year as a MINIMUM. And rationalsisation and consolidations amongst merged banks etc will lead to redundancies and job lossess over 100,000.
2. Manufacturing is already in recession. Period.
3. Retail sales are falling - 1% in October. And likely to fall faster with growing unemployment, wage freezes to come and squeezed household budgets.
4. The house market collapse has 3 years to run. Negatiove equity, estate agents closing etc.
The Conservatives will win the next election by default as the economic recession is going to be painful.
If Labour go in June 2009, it will be a big loss.
2010 would see wipeout.
As for stock markets - post October weak rally and then more falls in 2009. FTSE sub 2500 is my best estimate.
etc etc.
97. I’m not sure you can afford my exhorbitant consultancy fees Mike.
59. The interesting number in that story is the £150 billion capital losses by UK banks. That is far higher than either announced losses or most market estimates of ultimate losses.
99. I suppose Taiwan is an example. North and South Korea, West and East Germany. All split by ideology, I suppose, which is a bit different. Certainly I think a few generations would have to die for the Irish to even consider it in a crisis. And the EU would have to fail.
Maybe the spring in Gordon’s step is due to the fact he’s demob happy, rather than the crisis playing to his strengths?
86 I remember reading a while back that quite a large number (thousands IIRC) had 1 2 3 4 5 6 as their Lottery pick - probably each believing no one else would pick consectutive numbers.
60. Be very surprised if that is good value, I thought they were poor value at 100/30. Hard to believe that things have changed enough in the last couple of weeks for them to win. Add to that the fact that they have a poor candidate and I can see no hope of them winning.
71 John Loony, the Returning Officer for Highlands and Islands declared the final list place for Labour. The SNP challenged him on the spot and when recounted, the SNP’s Dave Thompson was found to have won not Labour.
The great unknown of Holyrood 2007 is whether had the ballot forms not been changed, would the majority of the 140,000 spoiled votes hve helped Labour. My view is probably not. Many older Tory voters would have been completely confused as well as many less well educated people. In any event it served the Labour party right because Dougie Alexander and Jack McConnell changed the layout of the ballot forms without the consent of the other parties.
Glenrothes will not be a Labour hold. It is going to be an easy SNP gain unless there is a dramatic event in the next 4 weeks. Alex Salmond is still walking on water in Scotland and frankly his latest ruse of demanding £1 billion to help Scotland fight the effect’s of Brown’s recession will play brilliantly including with many unionist voters.
As for the polls, I told you all in June the Scottish LibDems are going to be big losers at the GE but many of you dismissed me as wishful thinking. Let’s see how badly they get squeezed in Glenrothes. Most LibDem held seats in Scotland were Tory pre 1997 or 1987. If the LibDem vote is squeezed across Scotland at the GE, it will primarily be the Tories and to some extent the SNP (depending on the individual seats) who benefit.
If Brown wants sympathy, then he will find in the OED somewhere between sh!t and syphillis.
Cameron has to force Brown to justify his use of anti-Terror legislation to seize Icelandic assets, if he is to ratain any crediblity as a potential leader. If not, I hope that Brown is hauled up to answer his case in a court action. It is all very well for the likes of Marr to laugh this off on live TV, but is this use of the legislation within the law?
99. Yes, I can. Off the top of my head, I can think of Moldova - which wishes to rejoin with Romania (once they can sort out the Trans-Dniester problem).
If Belgium breaks up it is highly possible Wallonia will rejoin France: polls show a strong desire in Francophone Belgium.
Texas rejoined the USA, in 1870, after it had enjoyed a brief period of independence.
etc etc etc
Sorry, I’m afraid it is you that seems to be talking rubbish. I confess I am a fair distance from astonished.
106
Ted, I read that, I Think it was 36000 people who did it.
68. You obviously know little about Scottish politics since you are basing your assumptions on 2005. Its a completely different picture now and in fact the SNP won the equivalent Holyrood seat in 2007 and since they have increased their popularity greatly in the last year all logic would point to them winning. It will be a major shock if labour win , they admitted themselves that they were looking like losing by 5000 just a couple of weeks ago.
109
The use of anti terror legislation in this way is the fault of Parliament in not limiting the occasions in which it can be used.
Government assurances are - as usual - worthless.
Polce state ? Here we come. Inexorably.
I’m sure that the reason why the thread on the Yougov poll had the midnight till 6 AM slot had nothing to do with it showing an improvement of 9 points in Labour’s position since the last Sunday Times poll.
It reminds me of the well known golf course which was welcoming of women at week-ends as long as they were happy to play at night!
108.
It’s a bit two faced though, isn’t it? Lots of people complain that bankers are now screamy to nanny state to help them out of the mess they created (and while we can certainly blame Gordo for a lot, the failed bankers still need their share of the blame) despite wanting to be left alone in good times. It’s a fair complaint.
Similarly, isn’t Salmond crying to mother Britain for help now that Scotland is in a bit of do do, brought on by its own banks. Hell I’d think England would need more help. It is more dependant on financial services than we are. Up here, there’s the good ol’ oil industry (though not for much longer if oil keeps on falling).
There is no chance at all that Norway would ever want to rejoin with either Sweden or Denmark. It only left the former in 1905 and has done very well without them ever since.
The superficial similarities between the countries is no more than skin deep which is why Norway was able to leave without any real fuss from Sweden.
Anyone who observed their May 17th celebrations each year would know it was a complete non starter.
98
The Norwegians have never forgiven the Swede’s for their policy of, ‘co-operation’ with Germany during WW2. Particularly allowing Germany to ship armaments and men on its railway network.
I see Roger is off on another of his flights of fantasy this morning.
112. “A couple of weeks ago” is your key phrase there, Malcolm. What’s happened in those last couple of weeks to change things?
Eh? Can you think of anything? Mmm? Have a go: use that tiny brain of yours. Bang your head. Close your eyes and really strain. You’ll get there in the end.
If Lukashenko ever loses power in Belarus I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia tries to absorb it. When Putin was due to stand down as President there was a lot of talk in Russia of the possibility of him becoming President of a new Union of Russia and Belarus, which would have allowed him to stay in the top job, while obeying the Russian constitution. The stumbling block was Lukashenko’s desire to keep power.
110. The best you could come up with is “texas” in 1870, think that well supports my theory that you are completely misguided in your thoughts especially on Ireland. It would never happen.
116. Correct I think. But had Norway not been ceded to Sweden after the Napoleonic wars I think there is a fair chance it would have remained united with Denmark to the present day.
A few responses to this thread.
1. Ireland/UK union - never going to happen.
2. Brown eyesight - not a new story and it is getting worse. He won’t go before a GE though.
3. Glenrothes - SNP still in the driving seat and that makes 4/9 slightly attractive but it’s mortgage money to make money and nobodies giving mortgages out at the mo. Wouldn’t touch it because as stated Lab do have a 10000 majority.
4. GB is coming out of this looking better no doubt. It deflects from a lot of other stories and is cementing some wavering voters. Plus I’m sorry but Cam and Os have been made to look ineffectual and friends of the city.
118
I bet he wasnt saying that sort of nonsense during Gordo’s post “election” bounce as PM..
Yvette Cooper obfuscating simpe questions on Marr - however she is able to repeat ‘and thats the right thing to do’ many times over - its her ‘do whatever necessary’
114 Isn’t it a bit desperate to think that a 10% deficit is good news for Labour, which Mike is trying to suppress?
57. “Dyed in some wool somewhere”
“The Mail is a joke - pompous, self-satisfied, arrogant, irritating, bile-filled pile of crap”.
Self parody I hope?
20. A General Election in June 2009 is now almost impossible, I’m afraid!
The “New York Times” on friction in the GOP as McCain’s campaign hits choppy waters :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/us/politics/12strategy.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin
127 lol, I forget, I am a Tory - and thus must be evil, eeeeeevil
119. Sean , the full affects of the past few weeks will not yet have affected the voting, Labour may well get some lift from it but I cannot believe that it will be anywhere enough to cancel out the fact that most people in Scotland want to give Labour a good kicking, mostly their own previous supporters who have finally realised that after 50 years Labour have done nothing for Scotland.
We shall see in a few weeks who is correct, but I am sure you are saving money by not betting on Labour.
116. If you search this thread you will find no suggestion anywhere from me that Norway might reunite with Sweden or Denmark.
I agree that is highly unlikely, to put it mildly.
The actual suggestion, from me, was that if ICELAND went totally bankrupt it is “not entirely ludicrous” it may wish to reconsider its secession from Denmark in 1944.
Alternatively, and perhaps more likely, it would seek to join the EU. I understand the krone has already been pegged to the euro..
116 On the other hand, Norway has sufficient oil revenues put away that they could buy Sweden…assuming they weren’t invested in Iceland!
Interesting comment on conhome, on how, ‘centre right’ parties seem to be suffering due to the, ‘credit crunch’
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/international/2008/10/centre-right-pa.html
Hmmm McCain centre right?
re 114. The poll was discussed extensively on the previous thread - and further details from it are presented in the introduction to this thread.
These days threads very rarely last longer than 8 hours - day and night 24/7
122
I doubt it somehow. There are huge cultural differences between the two in spite of some shared history. The fact that we conflate Danes and Vikings in our history books cannot be used to justify any more cultural affinity than that between England and Ireland. Yes there are stringer links than for example between England and France but there are also very significant differences and although obviously no on can prove it, I suspect that even without the Napoleonic penalties it is doubtful whether Norway would not be independent now in a form fairly similar to that we see today.
Coldstone - your dream of nationalised utilities might come true!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/oct/12/transport-utilities
132. That peg didn’t last long - one day, in fact.
131 Given that recession is coming to Scotland, the only way Labour will ever do well again there is if they have been seen to have terminally fecked over the English economy even worse….
115 Josh, financially its England’s oil because not a single penny of oil revenue comes directly to Scotland so that is an irrelevant comment. I dont happen to think Scotland’s finances are in any worse a state than England’s. Frankly I believe the opposite is the case. What we have is a couple of high profile councils like Aberdeen in a real mess because the LibDems and Labour parties couldnt do their sums between 1999 and 2007. Most of Aberdeen’s £70 million problems for example date back to 2002 when Kate Dean the then and still current LibDem leader was in charge.
There are only around a handful of Scots councils with money in IceSave. The latest spat over free school meals is just posturing by the Labour group on COSLA an organisation they have dominated for decades and led by a senior Labour councllor Pat Watters. Every council could easily pay for the entire free school meals budget by pegging back the councillors expenses and all their freebies. I can think of lots of events I see councillors turn up for. The thing in common is a free meal and a chance to claim some expenses. Most of them just sit there and contribute nothing to the event.
Specifically looking at Glenrothes the SNP has the high profile council leader, young, dynamic and popular. Labour has a Gordon Brown MarkII with no political experience at all. The first rule of by-elections is you put forward the brightest, most enthusiastic candidate you have. Labour putting forward a middle-aged novice simply proves they couldn’t persuade any “real” candidate to stand! We will know in 4 weeks time if I am correct or not.