Labour get “global collapse” boost
October 12th, 2008
But the Tories are still well above 40%
As expected Gordon Brown personally and Labour have received a poll boost in the wake of the global financial crisis. The figures from the latest survey in the Sunday Times with comparisons on the last poll from the firm are: CON 43%(-2): LAB 33%(+2): LD14%(-1)
As ever we have the usual problem of the paper comparing not with the last published poll from the firm but from the last survey that it commissioned - as though that mattered more than seeing the direct trend from the firm itself.
The broad movement, however, is good for the government though they need that Tory share to get consistently below 40% before they can harbour any thoughts about David Cameron being stopped from getting a majority
The recent polling in the marginals with the suggestion that the Tories are doing disproportionately better in seats they are trying to win means that the idea of a 10% comfort zone might be misplaced. We’ve also seen other polling that shows that the Lib Dems can get higher shares when voters are told about the specific circumstances in their seat.
Given the massive exposure and the general view that Brown has been performing to his strengths the outcome is not unexpected. In this context it is hard for the opposition parties to say anything that will merit more than the most minimal coverage.
There are the usual non-voting intention questions with poll showing that Brown-Darling lead Cameron-Osborne by 33% to 27% on who is trusted most to handle the crisis. But to other questions 53% of those interviewed thought that the government was “too slow in acting” and while only 29% thought Brown was handling things well, against 37% who thought think he was handling things badly.
As Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report notes when asked which team they think will improve their standard of living, people also continue to favour Cameron and Osborne over Brown and Darling by 34% to 25%.
YouGov also asked about Peter Mandelson’s return. According to the paper by 41% to 17% people said it was a bad move, with 50% saying they still link him to spin and sleaze.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Tories on the slide (again) and in their favourite pollster aswell.
A 1% swing, over the next 18 months, will see the tories notional majority wiped out.
But Cameron and Obsorne are still thought to be best in the long run it would seem:
‘However, it is not all good news…53% of people thought that the goverment were too slow in acting and while 29% think Brown is handling things well, 37% think he is handling things badly. Asked which team they think will improve their standard of living, people also continue to favour Cameron and Osborne over Brown and Darling by 34% to 25% (why the difference? Perhaps people are taking a longer view - they trust the experienced hand to deal with a crisis, but think Cameron would do better over time. Alternatively, perhaps they are including non-economic issues when they think about standard of living).’
This is from Anthony Wells.
As is this which I posted on the last thread where he makes his own predictions about the future.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1495
The fact that McCain isn’t getting a similar boost show just how stupid the Palin selection was. If he had selected Lieberman, a moderate Republican, a generic Republican or even Mitt Romney he would be able to run 3am ads non stop. He threw away his strongest card just when it was most needed.
FWIW: My latest projections are:
Obama leads by nearly 5%
http://politicaltipster.com/2008/10/11/obamas-lead-falters-a-bit/
Obama to carry PA, MA, FL, OH & WI but McCain to carry MO.
http://politicaltipster.com/2008/10/11/mccain-now-set-to-carry-missouri
1 - I’d be wary of drawing too many conclusions at the moment. I guess if you had polled during WWII you would have produced similar conclusions. And we all know what happened in 1945! I think we need to get beyond the immediacy of the crisis and for politics to settle down before we draw any real conclusions.
Yes. Its true. Labour is on the way back.
I must say I am surprised, after 500Billion quids, negative equity, repossessions and rising unemployment, Labour is on the way back.
I shall be buying Labour!
Perhaps people, like some I have met, expect Brown to clear up his own mess so a new team can get to work.
re 1 I think that is totally unfair to YouGov Gabble. The firm’s president and the wife of one of its founders, Peter Kellner, was in Brown’s cabinet till only a few days ago.
Labour made a total fool of themselves during the London mayoral election attacking YouGov which, of course, got the result spot on.
5. Read Anthony’s article.
Sorry 4 not 5
Will this news be pivotal in the Glenrothes by-election?
http://www.snp.org/node/14372
‘SNP pledge Fife tax freeze’
IMF calls for vigilance in fighting credit crisis
19 minutes ago
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
AP Economics Writer
(AP:WASHINGTON) The International Monetary Fund says it strongly endorses a plan by rich countries to fight the global credit crisis.
The lending institution says in a statement after a daylong meeting that it has given full support to the action plan approved on Friday by wealthy nations.
The IMF’s policy setting panel said Saturday the economic crisis is so deep and widespread that it requires excellent coordination among nations and a willingness to take bold action.
5.That is a possible interpretion of the underlying questions in this poll and the ICM marginal.
Mind you - there aren’t enough that want them to stay on to put them in the lead.
6. Mike
There is no doubt that YouGov is the favourite pollster of the tories on this site. Whenever any other pollster is favourable to Labour, there is always a chorus of ‘Let’s wait for YouGov’.
8 sorry Sally, I guess i got caught up with the Falklands Spirit.
Still, its pretty good by any measure.
What is interesting is that this is another poll suggesting the LibDems will be able to fit in a large minibus if this voting intention were to be repeated at a general election.
It seems to show that they have 2 seat less to 17 compared to the last YouGov at 19 seats.
But all these movements are within the margin of error, or so we were briefed last month, so does it mean anything. Tories could be at 41 again and Labour at 30%?
What do the experts say?
One thing is clear, there is a mighty two party squeeze going on.
re 12. Maybe that is the case but it was YouGov who first reported double digit leads for Labour in September 2007.
The pollster which I think has the methodology that best suits the Tories is Ipsos-MORI. Last month they reported a 28% Tory lead. It will be nothing like that this month.
‘two-thirds think that the economy will have a “mild” recession.’
In other words people think they’ll see bad headlines and unemployment will hit other people. That was a reasonable expectation what, four weeks ago. But not now.
A severe recession at least equalling the early nineties and possibly worse than ‘80-’81 seems about par now. Though maybe I’m an optimist.
1
Gabble happy to see the country suffer so long as the govt. can hold on a few more weeks, sad.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/12/recession-unemploymentdata
Two million Britons on the dole by Christmas
Evidently Gabble has yet to grasp the concept, usually mastered before adolescence, that repeating a lie over and over again doesn’t make it true.
12 Gabble is spot on. Yougov is just Tory propaganda.
Labour is gaining in the polls! Just 1% and the Tory lead vanishes!
Just rejoice at that news and congratulate our forces and the medias.
16 - A friend of mine who is a professor of economics says that right about now almost everything is in place for an economic depression and that it could tip either way on sheer luck!
17 — Haven’t you heard? House price falls are a good thig, Gabble says so.
I’m reminded of one of the posters on the Guardian’s Comment is Free, ‘Woolly Minded Liberal’, who kept insisting house prices wouldn’t fall. Oh yes, and he supports ID cards as well. I wonder if G and WML are related..?
perhaps that should be:
Just rejoice at that news and congratulate our forces and the MORIs
How on earth can the Tories not get a majority if they fall back just 1% more???
The worlds gone mad. How can 33% of this great nation even consider voting for this disgrace of a government? I’m going to bed with my old buddy tequila paid for by JC (Bangor).
20 “right about now almost everything is in place for an economic depression and that it could tip either way on sheer luck!”
And with Gordon at the helm, which way is that “sheer luck” going to break, would you say? He is like Unlucky Alf from the Fast Show.
“Awwwww…….bugger!”
I like this bit:
‘In the short term, my prediction is this will be a positive for Gordon Brown and Labour in terms of public support. In the longer term, I expect it to be bad.
- * -
*Falklands effect. Just for reference, prior to the Falklands War Gallup showed the Conservative party two points behind Labour and the Alliance, CON 31%, LAB 33%, All 33%. Three months later they were seventeen points ahead of the Alliance, CON 45%, LAB 25%, All 28% - a 19 point transformation in the party lead. We’ve got rather a long way to go before it bears comparison to the Falklands effect.
There is no way the Lib Dems will grt as little as 14% in a GE.
I see Peter Mandelson is getting a pension package worth a £1m which will be on top of his Cabinet minister salary.
He was only in the job in Brussels for four years.
This will hearten all those who have seen their pension pots collapse in value in recent days.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/12/mandelson-labour
“Make-believe Maverick : The Real John McCain”
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain
I see Kubica is complaining that Hamilton’s overtaking is ‘dangerous’ and he should be stopped.
Wonderful concept from Kubica, try and hinder the style of one of the few drivers who seems able and willing to overtake. There are too few of them, Alonso, Webber, Massa, Vettel, gock. Not many more.
What does Kubica want, and endless procession? Winning by lots?
Or is he allowed to spear Hamilton’s car in a wild manoeuvre but no-one else.
Hamilton is a racer and the non-racers naturally whinge. We need more real racers if F1 is too survive the attentions of King Max.
25 - I really don’t think it is a good idea to joke about these things. This is shaping up to be a once in a generation global economic adjustment. This is not going to be pretty. I think the terms of trade in politics have fundamentally changed, once the dust settles I think there is going to be a huge anti-incumbency effect.
An extraordinary turnaround is happening infront of our eyes. It wouldn’t matter if 90% of people didn’t like Mandelson’s return Labour wont lose a single vote because of it.
On the other hand if anyone can’t see how Labour have got their act together since his arrival then they aren’t concentrating. What’s more I doubt the Tories falling apart is purely coincidental either.
It’s all very Cameron being an empty suit but before Mandy’s arrival no one was noticing.
And what about the disintegration of Hague……..
Well! 11 years 5 months into an incumbent govt-and this poll indicates,from a 10% Tory lead from a 3% national lead on Thursday 5th 2005,a swing of 6.5% from Labour to Conservative.
I can remember the 1990 polls: Mrs T ‘bottomed out’ at c.24% down in April/May 1990-a 17.9% swing against her party.I do remember her party ,at least partially,recovering in summer 90-before the final line of events-which historians have already talked to death.
My point-if any-’Crisis Management’ may paly well for GB twixt now and Xmas.
Its fairly certain further base rate cuts-and for those on standard variable/tracker mortgages that more BoE cuts will come early in 2009-in my humble opinion,it is far from set in stone that events may yet allow Gordon Brown a ‘window of opportunity’ in mid-2009. I know the Tory posters will rip me apart,but I am merely describing a set of events,that are,to my mind,quite plausible.
All those Tory Councils investing in Iceland helped
30 Glock, of course.
Per Daily Mail: “Bodies of the dead not being buried in echo of Winter of Discontent”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
Roger did the Daleks get Hague then? Didn’t the Doctor save him?
Didn’t John Precott advise such investment?
*Prescott*
33. Evidence?
You would expect the Tory share to drop but all they have lost is a small amount of conference noise.
35 Does Dacre take the weekend off to go to Cheques to polish his credentials? So we have the real Mail back only at weekends?
28. A silly story about Manelsons pension. Stripped of the crap…..aged 65 he’s going to get an index linked pension of £35.000 a year. Similar to what a middle ranking policemen gets ten years earlier.
Even worse who listens to him?
I wish I couldget a 35k pension a year for working three years and six months in any job, let alone the cushy number in Brussels.
Still Mandy is made of stern stuff if he didn’t succumb to the chips.
Yes it was Prescott. Told them to go for the highest rate.
And who was it who allowed them a passport
And gave FSA backing.
And who allowed a triple AAA rating.
And who designed all that.
Dig and Labour are at the heart of it all.
At least the Chinese gave him kidney stones with their dodgy milk.
I see the Guardian piece on mass unemployment by Christmas has given us the name for the current crisis: Black October.
I just hope there is not a terrorist group which develops and adopts the name.
31. James Burdett: “I really don’t think it is a good idea to joke about these things.”
At least, not when your party is being exposed as weak and indecisive in the face of the worst financial crisis in a generation.
Cameron’s bi-partisanship, over this issue, is just a cynical political ploy, brought about because he hasn’t got any ideas of his own. How long before he buckles and goes on the attack again?
re 41. You misread the Mandelson story - the £35,000 that he will get from the age of 65 from Brussels will be on top of all his other pensions. He also, if I am not mistaken, will not pay full UK tax on it.
I was predicting something like 41-32 but the two-party squeeze is helping both major parties. The change in canvassing is noticeable, partly in terms of Labour certainty to vote (much more ‘of course I will’ and much less ‘I suppose so’) - something that YouGov doesn’t measure - and partly in a sprinkling of people who didn’t vote Labour last time but now think they will for various reasons (tactical voting/impressed by Brown/personal votes). There are still votes going the other way, but today’s big Labour canvass in Trowell (large, prosperous village west of Nottingham) showed Labour’s vote level pegging net compared with our last canvass there in 2005 (yes, blush - haven’t done that bit for three years).
As Anthony Wells points out, YouGov was at 20+ leads recently, so there’s significant progress even though there’s a way to go. The key figure for further advance is probably the 37% who both approve of GB’s record as Chancellor and think him the right man to get Britain out of trouble.
Incidentally, the canvass today was on the hells of delivery of an national 8-page Tory newsletter obviously aimed at the marginals (cover pages localised). It’s worthy but dull, like a company house magazine - mostly Tory conference reports, with titles like, “New University Bursaries for Talented Apprentices”, “The Carbon Cooperation Plan”, “Making a Difference in Rwanda” and “Shadow Minister Has New Apprentice” (Alan Duncan got someone from The Apprentice on a panel discussion). Half a page is devoted to info about how the conference was organised - how many cups of coffee drunk, how many sandwiches were eaten, etc. Generally black/white but colour head-and-shoulders of speakers on each page. Labour voters were amused/dismissive, but of course others may have thought it good stuff and not mentioned it.
45 My guess, a serious one, is that he diets too much and restricts his intake of water. The older you get the more water you should drink.
“I’m reminded of one of the posters on the Guardian’s Comment is Free, ‘Woolly Minded Liberal’, who kept insisting house prices wouldn’t fall. Oh yes, and he supports ID cards as well. I wonder if G and WML are related..?”
What the hell are you talking about? Why does this have anything to do with me? I don’t support ID cards I wasn’t saying house prices would never fall.
I don’t have any problem with posters attacking me or disagreeing with me, but this is some ridiculous caricature and not my views.
I look forward to the next few polls when the gap narrows even more and the Tories start panicking. Maybe they’ll bring that man of the people Zak Goldsmith back to burnish their green credentials?
50 aww, I liked the idea it was revenge..
47.They don’t actually have any decisions to make though, do they, because they’re not in government. So they can hardly be either weak or decisive.
41. Butg not for 4 years work.
Nick Palmer I think it is wonderful that you are gaining support from people who move to Labour because they are impressed with Brown.
Are you sure they are not a BNP fifth column who haven’t got the wit to think up a better excuse?
52. Labour will plummet when this really kicks in.
re 49. “ The key figure for further advance is probably the 37% who both approve of GB’s record as Chancellor and think him the right man to get Britain out of trouble.”
No doubt Tories will say that what is key is that “when asked which team they think will improve their standard of living, people also continue to favour Cameron and Osborne over Brown and Darling by 34% to 25%”
You can spin it however you want.
All of this is why non-voting intention findings are almost worthless.
Roger “I look forward to the next few polls when the gap narrows even more and the Tories start panicking.”
Didn’t you say we were disintegrating ten minutes ago? It is very difficult to panic when in a molecular state.
G = Gabble, sorry. Couldn’t be bothered to type the lying troll’s name…
47 - Oh please. Of course Cameron will go on the attack again because frankly there is a lot of stuff that this government needs attacking over. Frankly you want a non-aggression pact because it is the only way Labour is going to win the next election and you know it. The government is getting a short term filip from this because at the moment there is no prospect of a change of leadership in the country. Once the immediate panic is over there isn’t going to be a lot of hiding places for Labour. You are the incumbent party, I can think of only one time in history when an incumbent won in a free election on the back of a recession or worse. That is a pretty telling record.
32 & 52
Keep it up Roger we need something to laugh at during these grim times.
By the way any more bank investment tips?
Also re 49 and 58. I’ve got an article in the pipeline which completely blasts away all the arguments on non-voting intention questions. I’ve been meaning to run it for days but there’s always been something else pressing.
60. Okay, fair enough.
US election, don’t know if anyone has mentioned this:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iOKWLjhw3wplpT1j0L4IvISHpbGAD93OJ5D00
Maybe Roger’s Dutch friends could recommend some banks?
BTW, I see malc4ken had a go at me on the last thread for being nice about McCain: following my earlier support for Hillary, he seems to think this shows racist leanings. malc, I’ve been supporting Obama for months, once he kissed and made up with Hillary, and I think he’s quite clearly the better potential President. But McCain seems to me to be a decent guy trying to fight a competitive race without the full-blown nastiness that his radicals want. Isn’t it possible to support Obama without loathing McCain?
I don’t think Obama loathes him - one reason I like Obama that he doesn’t use scorched-earth rhetoric. Sure, there’s some dodgy negative ads, but I’ve seen much worse in leaflets from all three British parties.
re 66. I fully agree with you Nick on that. The video extract that we ran on Saturday morning was very powerful and it took a brave man to stand up to the crowd in the way he did.
On topic: will conservatives (and mike) finally stop talking about a conference bounce and that Labour have not gained anything from the financial crisis?
I seem to remember that not too long ago the tories were shown as 52% in one poll and test was saying it will be the first of many 50+ polls.
Listening to NPR the other evening.
Their expert [goodness knows who - works for some Wall Street bunch or other] was almost begging the Bushboy Administration to follow Brownstuff’s lead and purchase stock in banks rather than buy debt.
He said that Paulson had been resisting this course of action because of pressure by shareholders of banks who argued against the devaluing of their shares,and on ideological grounds as well.
The so-called expert insisted that the only way the world’s fiscal problems would be solved would be by following the example of the British government.
I refuse to believe that Wall St economists could possibly suggest following the example of the hated NuLabour shower. I think he was undoubtedy put up to this by the foul Mandelson or the smelly Campbell. I complained to NPR and said that they were obviously under instructions from the Harman woman but they insisted that they weren’t. Who can you believe these days?
I’m waiting to hear dear Mrs Palin’s recipe. We love toad in the hole in our family.
Malcolm
As was once said of the unfortunate Dr Frankenstein, the GOP have created a monster — not with bolts through its neck, but one composed of wingnuts — which will destroy them.
re 68. I will stop saying that at the end of October.
Last year you might recall I said that throughout the Brown honeymoon from June to September that we would not be able to get a true test of opinion until late October. A lot of what you see in polling is just a measure on how much coverage party leaders are getting.
“Why the crisis puts a spring in the Prime Minister’s step”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/12/gordonbrown-labour
52. Labour will plummet when this really kicks in.
You’re sounding as desperate as Gabble now.
71. “Last year you might recall I said that throughout the Brown honeymoon from June to September that we would not be able to get a true test of opinion until late October. A lot of what you see in polling is just a measure on how much coverage party leaders are getting.”
You didn’t say anything similar to that around the time of the 52% poll. It seems to me (I could be wrong) that you’re, ‘wait till late october’ rule only applies when Gordon Brown is doing well.
Mike,
Are these the kind of figures you expected to see?
Do you see this as a trend towards the Tory lead being steadily eroded or just a temporary bounce for the PM attributable to the financial climate?
I know no one can be certain of anything but what’s your gut instinct?
Obama ready to do a Government of All The Talents thing:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3179575/Barack-Obama-would-offer-John-McCain-a-job-is-he-wins-the-US-election.html
74 - Oh please, that is one of the silliest posts I’ve seen!
Interesting piece from John Rentoul in the Indy on Sunday.
It starts - “It has been a good week for David Cameron. In fact, it may be that we will look back and say that last week was when he won the general election…”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-the-week-gordon-met-his-erm-958582.html
77. Mike’s article on the 52% poll http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/17/ipsos-mori-figures-corroborated/
At no point does he say “wait till late october” or that the figures may be misleading.
re 79. That was BEFORE the conference season.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the details of the latest YouGov are another blow to Mike’s theory that Labour have been ‘doing very well’ in Scotland since Brown’s conference speech. We’ve now had five Scottish sub-samples since then, and no fewer than three have put the SNP ahead of Labour - and, at least for the time being, YouGov’s findings have fallen back into line with Populus and ComRes.
I must admit I was surprised, though - when I saw that Labour nationally were at their highest level in months, I was convinced that meant they’d be ahead in Scotland. Perhaps the SNP as a governing party are doing OK out of the current crisis as well - but as I’ve said a number of times we need to see a full-scale Scottish poll before we’ll have a clue what’s really going on.
Malcolm.
Obviously it will be his idea if it works. If cracks appear, no doubt so will the other 21 people at the table that night, including the Governor of the BoE, who may well be the driving force behind this plan.
It appears he gave them a kick up the backside - as did Pres. Bush. - when they were paralysed by fear and were not doing anything.
But, I am pleased someone thinks they picked the right plan because I don’t trust anything Brown is involved with and our lives kinda depend on it.
He will still be the man who wants to lock people up without trial for votes though.
Last post from me for tonight. I do agree with Mike that it’s too soon to be confident how (or even if) the polls will settle. The last week has been quite remarkable, and it’s given Conference-level prominence to Gordon and Alastair, even though in a ‘crisis’ framework. At some point Cameron and Osborne will open fire, and people will then start to decide who is more plausible - and that will, in my view, affect their voting intentions in a way that we can’t yet predict. And that’s just the start, since the long hangover even after the banking issues are solved will need to be processed by voters.
80. So was most of the Brown bounce.
The change in the political weather in 2007 after the tory conference and the election that never was, was shortly after the conference season and was real.
66 Apologies, Nick
I guess I’ve done a lot of homework on McCain and cannot believe that with all the evidence available anyone can think he is a decent sort.
His temper, his language, his attitude to women are all well-known; the man is disliked by his colleagues, and by those who find themselves in the way of his shameful ambition. He has sown the wind and is now reaping etc etc.
The US press used to sit adoring at his knee. Used to. Only the most right wing columnists now have anything to do with the man. I cannot wait to read some of the accounts of this election, particularly those written by Republicans who are kicked out of the Senate on McCain’s tail-less coat.
Malcolm
re 86. That does not fit the facts. Just check the list of polls here.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/
The bounce came during and after the conference season.
78 - Yes very interesting article, and one I tend to think is pretty prescient. I will continue to advocate that events like this engender anti-incumbency sentiment and that incumbent parties everywhere will get trounced unless their opponents are off the scale incompetent. For that reason Obama is going to cruise over the finish line, wheras Harper in Canada may cling on. Sarko in France is going to have a torrid time, Germany could be terribly interesting as the two big parties are both incumbent. In Britain the Conservatives are doing well in the marginals according to the evidence that is available. The marginals are often made up of areas that are more susceptible to being more heavily hit than non-marginals by a downturn in the economy so Labour is going to have a heck of a job once the real economy starts to slow more significantly!
79-LOL! Because I posted Rawnsley piece?
The Times leader today had a similiar if less direct feel about it.
The effect of the ‘chill winds’ on incumbents etc.
The the damage the postmortum the on the debt and the regulatory framework will do.
Its the later thats going to kill him.
However much he blames it on exposure to the US, people are going to believe our banks became toxic because they were not ‘managed’ properly someon should have made sure they were: that was his baby.
Good news for the Labour Party is that it was Balls’ baby too and might do for him.
This statement in the YouGov poll (to which respondents were asked to agree or disagree) made me laugh -
“Whatever happened in the past, Peter Mandelson is now committed to working harmoniously with Gordon Brown to ensure economic recovery”
How can the findings of such polls be treated as meaningful when the wording is such an Orwellian parody? So people disagree with that statement - what a surprise.
Two things occur to me before bed
Bulling Gordon.
As Nick says, the Tories will come out to attack eventually. They used to have to be careful not to be seen to bully a man who looked weak.
I don’t think that applies any more. Gordon’s been strutting his stuff and people will start to get angry and upset. There’ll come a time when Dave can be more relentless without tarnishing his nice image.
The Toff thing
Have Labour done Dave a favour?
‘Bring back the man with a bowler hat’ says Camilla Cavendish.
Labour attacks with their silly butler jokes mean he is not seen as a ’spiv’ but a real toff: some sort of aristocratic throwback who has no place in modern life/politics.
But there is a widespead feeling that we SHOULD turn back the clock. Go back to the spending and saving habits of old. Go back to the cautious stiff upper-lipped bank managers of old.
Labour have the feel of being more connected to ‘new’ money.
Maybe old is the new new.
re 87. Well there’s a story running that Obama might offer McCain a job -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3179575/Barack-Obama-would-offer-John-McCain-a-job-is-he-wins-the-US-election.html
I wonder if some of the increase in the Labour % might be due to a return to the fold of some eco-minded folk who may have drifted off to the Green party or the Lib Dems.
It’s more difficult to advocate green policies that hammer industry when the economy is crashing.
re 95. That’s a very good point and I was thinking of running a thread on it. Nobody is talking about climate change or carbon footprints when simple economic survival dominates everything.
Mike@94: Of course Obama’s going to want to work with McCain after the election - he needs the votes in the Senate. That’s doesn’t tell us anything either way about whether McCain is a “decent sort” or a two-faced scumbag or what.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3178318/Gordon-Browns-eyesight-is-causing-concern-among-aides.html
Is this significant?
Is it a potential route to a graceful early retirement?
Being unable to read anything that has not been reprinted in huge print must be embarrassing for a proud man. Would he be able to tolerate the compromises if his sight became any worse.
Palin booed a “puck dropping” thing
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=g7TgDanmWkg
re 98. I wonder whether we are being prepared for him to step down - after putting in place the structures to save the world’s financial system? That would seem to be the reason why the story is being pushed.
Roll on Ed Miliband
And perhaps the real reason for Mandelson’s shock return is to oversee the succession.
YouGov also asked about Peter Mandelson’s return. …with 50% saying they still link him to spin and sleaze.
And the other 50% don’t?!?
99 re Palin booed — yes, people had been calling for that on the web, so perhaps not as spontaneous as you’d have thought.
Labour’s recovery may have more to do with fuel and food prices falling a bit and the 10p fiasco compensation money hitting people’s pay packets.
It’s the economy. Not the global economy but household incomes.
98. “Is it a potential route to a graceful early retirement?”
Or to get a sympathy vote? Or am I just being cynical?
New thread - Are we being prepared for a Gord’s retirement?
I’m sure the reason why the thread on the Yougov poll had the midnight till 6 AM slot had nothing to do with it showing an improvement of 9 points in Labour’s position since the last Sunday Times poll?
It reminds me of the well known golf course which was welcoming of women at week-ends as long as they were happy to play at night!
Credit Crunch “Myth Busting”
When you look upon the ruined crop fields of our financial system you are struck by the amazingly ponderous levels myths that have emerged to explain this poor harvest.
Let’s start with a truth about those people who invest in shares: these people have money and everyone is lying to them to get their money as cheaply as can be. Therefore, these people are unlike voters, who are easily misled by politicians and media organisations. When these people see politicians and media organisation lying (lying being the act of ignorant or guilty) about the financial system they will dump their stocks, which will cause crashes in share prices.
Myth 1: “the banks have been greedy causing the credit crunch”. An argument for people with IQ’s below 100. Moneylenders have always been greedy and this is something anyone who has read the bible or Shakespeare will know. I’d really like to know when this “Golden Age” of non-greedy moneylenders existed because I can find no evidence for it. Secondly, I’d always assumed “black market” moneylenders where the greedy ones because they beat and murdered the borrowers who failed to pay up!
Myth 2: “the banks have been remiss at ensuring borrowers have the means to repay”. Another argument for people with IQ’s below 100. Affordability is determined by the Bank of England guider interest rate and therefore the lower this goes the greater the numbers of people who can afford repay debts. Therefore, if interest rates fall to below 3.75% the vast or majority of British people can afford to repay their mortgages and only personal tragedies or inflation lead to defaults. Secondly, borrowers only begin dumping their debts on property when it becomes apparent property prices are falling, which leads to surge in bad debts (not something the banks can do anything about). Therefore, the Bank of England decides how many can borrow; an appendage of the government of the day who select its personal! Gordon Brown has chosen badly, as all but the most faithful will admit.
Myth 3: “in the old days the banks demanded proof of earnings, etc”. An argument for people who get easily confused by new fangled technologies! In the distant past computers where very expensive and very large, super-fast broadband connection did not exist and many complex software functions did not exist, which meant it was cheaper to employ people to manually check paperwork for mortgages. In fact: in distant past a mortgage approval was based on less evidence than it is today. Methinks there are too many people writing about the “Credit Crunch” who are closer to retiring or of pensionable age! Today the banks use powerful computers with complex software applications through super-fast broadband connections to check libraries stored by credit rating agencies about a person’s complete biography of borrowing, which is actually superior to the distant past and saves many thousands of pounds (a saving often past back to the borrower). Secondly, the banks lost many billions in previous property crashes in the good old days of pen and paper.
Myth 4: “all of these complex new debt packages led to a disaster”. An argument for those who hate the idea that there is stuff that proves their not that bright! The banks go out every year and physically hire brightest or the bright from our universities to work in the financial system. It is ridiculous to claim that these people have difficulty understanding the actual products that their profession is using. However, it is entirely plausible that some our politicians and economists, especially the elderly ones have had difficulty comprehending these products and have thrown their hands up in the air shouting “it’s all too difficult”. Hubris denies these individuals the modesty to admit to their weaknesses and they blame the tools of the debt markets for their woes. Secondly, these tools simply allow debts to move from the producer to the investor, which means these tools are not responsible for the scale of borrowing, which is again determined by the Bank of England’s interest rate. The committee who decide at what level interest rates are chosen by Mr G Brown; he has chosen badly.
Myth 5: “all those city bonuses have led to the Credit Crunch”. An argument for those people whose envious nature outweighs their rationale impulses! Bonuses inspire loyalty (not to act against something) and endeavour (to focus all life’s energies for something). Therefore, if men and women are looking after many billions of other people’s wealth bonuses must be sufficiently large to remove criminality from the markets and ensure the individual is at the top of their game, which means the bonuses are entirely appropriate for the task undertaken by these individuals. Secondly, City bonuses do not look excessive compared to historical standards. Everyone has seen “Braveheart” and how King of England sprinkled titles and lands to Scottish nobles for remaining loyal to him e.g. averting wars. Queen Elizabeth I gave large bonuses to her captains who raided Spanish Gallons for their endeavour and loyalty. In fact: the Royal Navy continued this practice right up to the Victorian Age. Therefore, large bonuses have been with us for many thousands of years and cannot possible be the cause of our current woes!
Myth 6: “this is a global crisis needing global solution”. An argument for those who have never successfully solved a problem and need others to solve their problems! The Credit Crunch occurred because every nation was copying every other nation and therefore a mistake of one became the mistake of all. The great weakness of large groups is that mistakes get copied with as much vigour as successes. This became a global crisis because politicians and economist went for blind copying of others’ policies. Gordon Brown solution for our woes is to copy the Swedish solution for their financial crisis, which simply a case of more of the above. Nations need to find the exact remedy for their woes because no two countries are exactly the same. Secondly, how does anyone know if the Swedish solution will not lead to an even greater woe in the long-term? Gordon Brown didn’t see the mistakes in the first place and neither did he hire the right people to see the mistake in the offing, hardly inspires any confidence for the future.
As a consequence: investors dumping shares in the stock markets around the world is to be expected when so many are lying to them.