Why the split with the media views?
This morning the “insiders and experts” who make up the PH100 gave their final verdict on today’s by election in Fife – and their view is that it’s very close but that Labour might just do it.
Interestingly PH reports a massive split in the panel between the politicians and the media representatives: “The media panellists are political editors, leading commentators and executives. A solid majority of them are forecasting a win for the Nationalists. That puts them at odds with the politicians on the panel. They are MPs and peers, among them senior Ministers and Opposition frontbenchers, from all the main parties. A heavy majority of the politicians are predicting that Labour will hold the seat.”
What we are seeing here, I suggest, is that the politicians, believe that the transformation in the confidence of Brown that they have witnessed in recent weeks will translate itself into real votes in this election. Certainly the mood amongst MPs is very different from the betting markets where the firm view is that the SNP will take the seat.
If the SNP do win tonight this will further confirm my view that you often get a better view of what is going on in the country away from Westminster. Those who work in Parliament sometimes overstate the importance of the place.
Our cartoon is an original by Marf from LondonSketchbook.com.