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Hold your 2009 election date bets!

November 22nd, 2008


CONSERVATIVES 42% (-1)
LABOUR 31% (+1)
LIB DEMS 19% (+1)

ICM reports an 11% Tory lead

After all the election speculation following the non-past voted weighted MORI poll on Tuesday reports are coming in of a new ICM poll which puts the Tories 11% ahead.

The main difference between ICM and MORI is that the former takes measures to ensure a politically balanced sample through past vote weighting. MORI doesn’t and as I was arguing on Wednesday the latest survey simply had far too few 2005 Lib Dem voters in it to make it representative.

What’s happening at the moment is that it’s the way the different firms are polling the Lib Dems that is driving the top-line numbers.

The Tories will be delighted to have a pollster reporting shares that suggests, once again, a general election majority.

My view, as I have argued here before, is that the ICM methodology is sounder than MORI’s.

Mike Smithson






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