Are these Indy on Sunday “betting odds” an invention?
January 11th, 2009
So why not do the same with share prices?
Our genial host, Mike Smithson, is furious this morning because amidst a number of newspaper stories about who might return to Labour’s fold the Independent on Sunday is quoting what look like betting odds which he cannot find being publicly available anywhere. There is no source mentioned by the paper and nothing to suggest that these might have been created in the newsroom.
Mike writes: “The validity of betting odds is that they are offered by bookmakers or punters on betting exchanges who are prepared to risk hard cash by laying bets at those prices. If these “prices” have been invented then there’s no financial element, it’s misleading and could undermine those punters like me who are gambling on markets like this. The Indy on Sunday might have found a bookmaker prepared to lay at these price but a source is not quoted.”
One of Labour’s “big beasts” who is coming back is former Health Secretary and Blairite “outrider” Alan Milburn. The fact that he is making a return to government nevertheless keeps the “all hands to the pump” momentum going, alongside speculation as to what this might mean for the timing of the next election, and how many more “big beasts” can be persuaded to return to help Labour in its hour of need and maybe secure a fourth term.
The MP for Darlington will be heading a commission on social mobility, and Tuesday will see a White Paper issued on the subject. Milburn will lead a major push by the government to open up the professions, such as law and medicine, to people from disadvantaged backgrounds. With the return of Milburn and Mandelson, the Blairite-Brownite wars are increasingly irrelevant as Labour’s survival in government is now the overriding issue.
However, the Independent reports that Alastair Campbell is complicating Brown’s efforts to bring the “big beasts” back by refusing a peerage and thus formalise his role. Other names who have been mentioned as possible returners are David Blunkett (as outlined here in this piece by The Mole in early November) and also Charles Clarke.
As for the election timing, my feeling remains that it will be May 2010, no matter how many key figures from Labour’s past return in the meantime. 2009 looks set to have a steady drumbeat of job losses and companies collapsing, and it remains very uncertain that the polls will be good enough for long enough to go to the country. An election this year would also run the risk for the government of bad news during the campaign, a la Rover in 2005 but on a bigger scale.
Elsewhere, the Telegraph reports that Damian Green looks set for a return to the Shadow Cabinet once he has been cleared, with the Met expecting the case against Green to be thrown out in perhaps as little as a fortnight. Unless Caroline Spelman is cleared over “nannygate”, it’s thought that Hunt, Pickles, or Grayling might become the new Party Chairman, while Green could then take over the vacated role at Culture, Local Government, or Work & Pensions. It remains to be seen whether Ken Clarke will be a piece in the reshuffle jigsaw, although the Indy wonders whether he might be given a peerage and thus face off against Mandelson in the Lords.
Double Carpet
Later today on PB - the 2009 Forecast Competition
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Primus!
Nulli secundus…..er….
1 Congrats David - it’s good to see one of PB’s big hitters joining in such puerile fun, even if you just edged out yours truly.
A wide-ranging intro there from DC.
On Mike’s bane, he has a point, though not one to get incandescent about. It’s certainly bad form for the IoS to quote odds without either giving a source or stating it to be their own opinion. That said, bookmakers and punters will still consider the issues on their own merit as to whether the odds have any value. Personally, I’d be sticking a fiver on John Reid at those odds. Brown and he might hate each other, and Reid might have a new and more satisfying role for himself but never say never in politics; four figures for a former Home Secretary to return while still an MP and with his party is power is very overpriced. By the same token, 33/1 is probably a bit much for Byers. He’s been out of the game for a while and the Blairite-Brownite split has largely been healed so the problems on that score are much diminished compared with 18 months ago. That said, it’s difficult to see what he’d bring to the table. By contrast, the odds on Clarke and Blunkett look stingy to me.
The Indy on Sindy’s case isn’t strengthened by their speculation about the other Clarke going to the Lords to face off against Mandy. I’m quite sure Labour would be delighted to see Clarke in the Lords where he could do much less damage to the government both because of the style of that chamber and the number of issues he could weigh in on. Whether or not he returns to the front bench, the Commons is the only place for him. Apart from anything else, it would make a nice point about where Mandelson is and his lack of democratic mandate.
3. You’ve had a good run! TBH, I was amazed when I logged on and saw ‘No comments’ beneath the intro. Chances like that come around rarely for me (not being one who’s regularly awake at 3.45am), and I couldn’t pass it up!
Are they explicitly calling them betting odds? If not then odds are a legitimate way of representing probability, and these would presumably reflect the Indy’s opinion of what the odds should be.
I’m with corporeal on this - the article doesn’t seem to say anywhere that they’re betting odds that you can stake money on. And I can’t see why regular readers would jump to that conclusion. Even if we were trying to be pedantic, The Independent’s use of the word looks fine to me:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/odds
re 6 & 7. If the paper wanted simply to show their assessment of the likelihood of these people returning then why not just show a percentage? By expressing these in the common UK betting odds format and using the term ODDS they are suggesting that these are genuine.
“As for the election timing, my feeling remains that it will be May 2010″
You may be right - but I have no doubt that Labour’s election planners will be desperate to have some date in 2009 as an alternative option. Imagine the start of 2010: 2009 was a very bad year of statistics that even Tractors can’t counter; sharply higher unemployment; very low confidence levels with industry and consumers; house prices still falling, with mortgages still very hard to come by for the young and the poor. Then imagine a whole raft of household names who had struggled through tough trading in 2009 who get hit by very poor Christmas sales, and go under through January and February. Everything then will be framed in terms of “more bad news for the Govt. ahead of the upcoming election.
Let’s face it, Gordon has put all his eggs in the “Saviour” basket. The real killer for Labour would be if by 2010, the likes of the US and Germany are coming out of recession, but we are not. Going in 2009 leaves open the option for Labour to argue that things WILL be better in 2010 after a short, sharp recession that Britian WILL come out of in a better shape than its competitors. By 2010 the optimistic rhetoric will look as attractive to voters as a boarded-up high street…
Mike, I was rather disappointed by a detail, or rather ommission of a detail, in your post yesterday - ‘Boost for main parties in EU election poll’.
- “These are the figures with comparison on the 2004 EU election result:- CON 35 (+8): LAB 29 (+6): LD 15 (NC): UKIP 7 (-9): GRN 5 (-1): BNP 4: SNP/PC 4″
Is there any reason why you omitted the comparison with the 2004 EU election result in regard to the BNP or in regard to the combined SNP/Plaid finding? I find it hard to imagine what that reasoning must be, so I will assume it was simply a ’senior moment’. Even us (relatively) spring chickens have them.
So, for the sake of completeness here are the YouGov figures with comparison on the 2004 EU election result:
- BNP 4 (-1)
- SNP/PC 4 (+2)
Therefore, this survey finding hardly provides much support to the (seemingly widespread) theory of an impending BNP breakthrough in June. On the other hand, it will bring a lot of cheer to a lot of Scots and Welsh people.
Of course actual turnout on the day, and differential turnout, may make this YouGov survey look miles out in retrospect, but I for one am absolutely delighted with the SNP/PC at 4% at this early stage in the game.
What went wrong with the thread started on the subject of come-backs at around 4am this morning? If you’re trying to hit a million posts, you can’t afford to drop the odd dozen or so for no apparent reason.
Interesting piece from Rawnsley in the Observer.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/11/gordon-brown-recession-global-economy
Re 11. I made a cock-up. Sorry
9
I think this is nearer the truth!!
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-shh-weve-never-had-it-so-good-1299403.html
13. Cock-ups are one of my own specialities. I had been hoping to corner the market…
I’m surprised you haven’t mentioned this new site Mike.
http://www.labourlist.org/
Or have you?
14 Rentoul’s “never had it so good” piece misses the point that while mortgage holders are better off, those (often poorer families) with credit card and other loans are not benefiting from falling interest rates.
10. Rouding and margins of error can make a big difference to parties with small national shares (though the MoE may matter less when the vote is concentrated as it is with the nationalist parties). There’s always a reasonable chance that the PC+SNP figure will look good as their share was 2.4% last time which rounds down but doesn’t require too much more to make it round up.
Really, it would be handy to see the regional breakdown on the figures but you’re right - a 4% score for PC+SNP ought to be very satisfying for their supporters if it’s realised in June.
16. There were some comments about it late last night.
It will be interesting to see what happens. As far as I can tell the most successful blogs are independent grass roots efforts, perhaps with an agenda, but without party affiliation (e.g. this site and Guido). Labourlist seems to be following the traditional left wing obsession with centralised control. It might get the party faithful excited, but that does not guarantee success.
I think Mike’s hunch is right - it’s very strange no source is cited, and unprofessional, and certainly begs the question of whether they invented the figures, or improvised with some to complete the list. The Indy (like most papers) are now working under the barrel of a gun with a skeleton staff, and my guess is that it was quite likely this was cobbled together at the last minute, or blown up to fill a space and the figures pasted up hastily without any rigorous fact-checking, which is why there is no source cited. I’m afraid I’ve witnessed this where a story falls through and there’s a scramble to fill a space, and the Indy often does this typographically (which is also the cheapest way to go).
More help for long term jobless sounds like good news from the government and James Purnell but in practice will only mean more harrassment and hence fewer votes for Labour come polling day.
That Labour list is horrendous so far.
22
you mean the draper website, yes i looked yesterday, it looks poorly constructed.. Not sure people want to read lefty dogma anyway.
19
Its always going to be difficult for a political website generally supportive of the government in office, to establish itself.
Political websites by their very nature do best when they have a subversive quality about them, they’re much better in attack, than defence.
Quite a lot on KC’s ‘return’ in the papers.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jan/11/kenneth-clarke-lord-tebbit-conservatives
I reach for my revolver whenever a media person mentions ‘odds’.
As we speak,the hosts on Radio5Live are giving a free plug to Betfred’s offer of 5-2 on a Red Card in today’s game between Man Utd and Chelsea.29-10 or 3.9 digital is freely available on the ‘Fair and you will get bigger.
4 Morning David, and congratulations on winning today’s competition. I must admit I found it a rather irksome little contest at first but it now seems to have become a PB tradition and what’s to do but join in the fun?
This Site excels partly because anybody shooting the breeze can be brought up short by being asked to put up cash to back their opinion. Mike should do the same to the Independent. They are quoting odds. He should challenge them to lay those odds, or at least refer him to somebody who will.
The MSM is in trouble and this sort of rubbish from the Indy is a good indication of it. The article isn’t a patch on what you can read here any day of the week. The odds are fantasies, ‘compiled’ by somebody who understands even less about betting than they do about politics.
People who are interested in both know where to come.
Agree with CoffeeHouse comment that LabourList looks more a Labour version of the Conservative.com Blue Blog than ConservativeHome.
Don’t link to Labourlist (labour listing sounds like a sinking ship) - they don’t link to PB!
What! The Indy making up stories! Well I never!
I’ve often thought that the ‘reason d’etre’ of Independant editors was to make up stories. Lol..
8. Matter of style. As the dictionary link pointed out, they are technically completely within their rights to display probability as such.
16. We all saw it yesterday Colstone.
A right botch of Web Page Design. But that’s Draper all over; slovenly, ill kept, and in the end rather nasty.
31. The way the comments work is peculiar.
This is Draper. ” i am particularly proud of the way that comments link to threads which provides a much better user experience…”
And a user. “Your comments might line up nicely, but every time I load the page, they’re in a different f*****g order, so I have to read them all again and manually figure out which is the new one.”
[28] And when Dolly does, Icarus, will Our Genial Host be on the A-list or the Z-list?
8 Because odds are the way that probability is commonly represented, and therefore a way that their readers will understand?
10 The problem is that 4% across the board won’t translate to seats: but if they can concentrate on areas of strength and pile up votes in 2 or 3 constituencies, they may be able to. So a drop of 1% with a gain of a seat or two is quite possible, and will be touted as a victory.
Is that a fake fire in David Cameron’s hearth on the Andrew Marr show? Alas! what heavy symbolism.
Roger Harcourt
re 28 We must find a name like CONtinuityIDS to describe LabourList.
The tradition of the press making up odds to embellish articles long predates serious political betting, so I can’t get worked up about the Indy doing it. But challenging them to put up the money if a bookmaker will lay those odds seems a good wheeze for Mike. Gordon should appoint John Reid as Minister for Fisheries, say, and put £20,000 on at those odds - that’s Labour’s election budget sorted.
9/14: two interesting sides of the ‘economy’ coin. I’m sure MM is right that the press will highlight the ‘more bleak economic news’ - given a choice between good and bad news, they will always pick the bad as better copy. Thus “High street Xmas sales meltdown expected” was a widespread story, but “High street Xmas sales better than expected” (Sainsbury’s were the best in their history) wasn’t. On the other hand, it’s also true that most people are finding their own economic conditions pretty good right now, though they don’t like to say so out loud as it’s tempting fate and insensitive to others.
So what affects voting intentions most, what people read in the press or their own experience? Depends largely, I think, on their assessment of the *outlook* for their own experience.
Nice examples of gratuitous public sector waste here…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5489556.ece
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_play.php?game_id=6044
For those interested in the pb diplomacy game. Western Europe’s in turmoil and Turkey and Russia look like rolling east. Could get ugly fast.
Labouryou’reonmylist?
38. that Diplomacy link doesn’t link to the pb game
36 But we don’t have any retail sales figures for December yet. Sainsbury’s and John Lewis/Waitrose did well, Aldi and Lidl are doing well, M&S figures were quite poor, of course there are some notable retail casualties. I think BRC sales figures are out this week, and ONS’s will be the following week.
36. ‘it’s also true that most people are finding their own economic conditions pretty good right now’
Any evidence for that assertion? Consumer confidence indices remain at rock-bottom levels, with a more respondents to the December Nationwide survey expecting their household income to be lower in six months than expected it to be higher. A net 31% thought jobs were scarce versus jobs plentiful.
You are behind the curve Mr.Palmer - the impact of lower fuel prices and interest rates has already been superceded by fears about unemployment - and there is much worse to come on the latter front.
40. Sorry, this one maybe?
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/game_history.php?game_id=6044&phase=O&gdate=3
This is a bit OTT imho - newspapers run these stories from time to time, and they give ‘odds’ which are simply the writer’s thoughts about the chances of each suggestion they make.
It really isn’t sensible to start getting all purist about them not using published bookie figures!
36 Nick P: ‘it’s also true that most people are finding their own economic conditions pretty good right now’.
With house prices falling, negative equity, companies going bust, jobs being shed, viable businesses not being able to get finance, and household names disappearing from the high street I doubt people are feeling ‘pretty good’ about things.
Well my personal evidence is jolly good Runnymede (at 42 at time of writing). I’m self employed with a start up business being built in the background that will be my primary source of revenue in February. Savings on mortgages in particular goes a long way to balancing the books.
I’m something you find incomprehensible R’mede - self employed entrepreneur Labour Party supporter.
Anyone else watch Andrew Marr? I see for balance the paper reviewers were a male leftwinger and a female leftwinger. More than made up for by the delightful Sophie Raworth though.
Decent job by Cameron, Marr not at his absurdly obvious worst but still more antagonistic than he was his Brown.
46 You are not “most people” John. There may be quite a few people who have benefited from mortgage rate cuts, but “most people” are skint.
46. I find it incomprehensible that a supposedly intelligent person would generalise from their own personal circumstances in such an intellectually lazy fashion. Nick Palmer is paid to talk rubbish - what is your excuse?
Scotland’s town halls will agree to freeze council tax bills for the second year in a row, the Sunday Mail can reveal.
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2009/01/11/councils-axe-tax-hike-after-70m-pledge-from-snp-s-john-swinney-78057-21031416/
John Swinney has given his gloomiest assessment yet of the economic difficulties facing Scotland, claiming the country will remain in recession until 2010… Swinney’s forecast that the recession would last into 2010 is more pessimistic than the one made by Alistair Darling, who said the UK recovery should begin in the second half of this year… He said the Chancellor’s analysis was “a bit on the optimistic side for the UK”. Swinney said he based his prognosis on advice from the Scottish Government’s chief economic adviser, Andrew Goudie, and information from the Treasury.
Iain McMillan, director of CBI Scotland, said: “Our economic forecasts are showing that the whole of 2009 will be in recession. In the first quarter of 2010 we think there will be zero but not negative growth. There won’t be positive growth until the second quarter of 2010. John Swinney’s forecast that it could be 2010 before we are back into positive GDP territory – that is a credible forecast.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Recession-39until-201039.4863852.jp
Dolly’s Den seems to be off to a startling and expectedly rubbish start.
I’m looking forward to watching (and helping) that train wreck collapse in on itself in an amusing black hole of venom, bile and badly-written government shite.
47. Cameron did well. He sounded very husky - I assume he’s been down with this dreadful throaty virus everyone is getting? Anyway, his rough voice gave him a little more gravitas. He should start smoking again.
re 36. Nick - I cannot recall anything similar from a paper in the five years that PB has been operating. Where invented odds have been used these have been clearly described.
‘Tories deny deal with Salmond over SNP Budget’
Last year, Salmond threatened to resign and trigger an election if the SNP’s first Budget failed to get support. This year, finance secretary John Swinney has repeated the threat, but the idea of going to the country during an economic crisis appears an unrealistic scenario.
Last year, the Tories voted with the Government after securing a commitment for 1,000 extra police officers and an acceleration of business rates cuts. This year, they are demanding a £10m-a-year guarantee that every state school pupil will be given a week of “outdoor adventure education” during their studies. And it is understood that the Government is close to backing their plans for a new hospital bed-by-bed monitoring system to tackle hospital infections.
The Lib Dems appear to have already forced themselves to vote against the Government, having had their request for a 2p cut in income tax to stimulate the economy flatly turned down by the SNP.
Labour, the largest opposition party, has been keeping its cards close to its chest, but its shadow finance spokesman, Andy Kerr, has had two meetings with Swinney. Labour wants Swinney to place more emphasis on saving jobs and creating new ones. Sources within the party say that they are still far from satisfied with what is on offer, although they have been encouraged by the conciliatory language used by Swinney when he launched the Budget on Friday.
There will be room for manoeuvre right up until January 28 when the stage III version of the bill comes before Parliament for the last time.
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Tories-deny-deal–with.4863790.jp
51. So far, the primary activity seems to be Mr Draper deleting comments. How to win friends and influence people…
Renamed as Dr Raymond Cocteau
I am in the IT line, and my hobby is history - especially military history. It is nearly always the case that traditional news media will print/show stories thaat are fundementally wrong on any technical subject.
A recent example in the US was a story that Obama was considering binning NASA and handing the entire space program to the military - five seconds of conversation with any vaguely interested layman would have killed the story….
In part that is the problem. When asked, very often journalists shrug and say that it was a good story - if inaccurate.
In short, for a distrestingly large portion of the media, providing the story sells and can’t be *proven* to be rubbish, it is a good story.
Test
56: Did you think it would be any different?
58. Derek?
56 - Mais non!
59
Dolly’s going to be busy deleting comments. If you’re not on message… To me its one of those sites where you click occasionally to see the headline and then.. move along nothing of interest here.
BTW Martin Day has taken his blog down, its a pity, it was very funny if a bit loony.
“Our genial host”
Your irony, perhaps, Double Carpet? It sounds as if the last thing he is this am is “genial”!
Good article by DC, by the way, and reassuring to hear his confidence in a 2010 GE. He may be wrong but he’s a good judge and you know he puts his money behind his opinions.
64. Are you still nailing your colours to 09 Peter?
62. Am a bit worried for Martin,he has also removed a lot of posts, I’m wondering if there’s been some pressure put on him.
The Sunday Times David Smith rips apart Osborne.
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/000841.html
67. tim This was discussed last night.
FPT
4/4/08 - David Smith
“According to David Smith, The Sunday Times’ economics editor, there is strong evidence that the future is positive for UK manufacturing.”
http://www.ukinvest.gov.uk/OurWorld/4029388/en-GB.html
9/1/09 - David Smith
“This is a bad time to be making things. UK manufacturing output slumped by 2.9% in November and was down by more than 7% on a year earlier. Overall industrial production fell by 2.3% on the month. ”
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/000840.html
Pretty much sums up as to how much notice we should take of anyone who professes to know what they are talking about as regards the economy.
by ukpaul January 11th, 2009 at 12:17 am
Smith is a bit of a numpty.
65 Beg pardon, Woody? My colors have been nailed to 2010 for some while now. I was originally a 2009 man but switched a long time ago. Do try to keep up.
Seriously, you may be thinking of my gamble on Gordon going in 2009. I got good odds on that. At the moment that’s not looking likely but things can change swiftly, so I’m not tearing my ticket up yet. Note also that I was always of the view that the widely held assumption that dumping Gordon would mean an immediate GE was a complete non sequitur.
In short, I gambled on Gordon going in 2009 and a GE in 2010. The second half of that bet still looks good.
We must chat about racing some time. Did you know that I was offered a share in Little Shilling last August and turned it down?! I’ve just taken a tenth share in another horse with the same syndicate. It’s called No Supper and it can only improve on previous form! I’ll let you know when it runs.
This is why I sometimes cant stand Cameron; its when he gets pompous - as regards Prince Harry.
As for Clegg, he gets more idiotic and pompous every day.
What a fuss over very little. A BBC and Sky News lead, FGS. The whole establishment is going insane.
10:45 | 11/01/2009
Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrat leader
Live with Adam Boulton, Sky News
Mr Clegg added his voice to those criticising Prince Harry’s remarks, saying he would have sacked a member of his team for saying such things.
Asked about Prince Harry’s comments, he said: “He should not have used those words, it would have cause considerable offence.” And asked if he would have had to sack a member of his team for using such language, he added: “I would almost certainly have to, yes.”
Cameron: Harry’s remarks “completely unacceptable”
10:04 | 11/01/2009
David Cameron, Conservative leader
Andrew Marr programme, BBC One
Mr Cameron said Prince Harry’s use of the word “Paki” was “completely unacceptable but added his apology should be an end of the affair.
He refused to be drawn on reshuffle rumours but said he already had “big beasts” like Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine working for him and said he wished he had spotted Labour’s “unaffordable” spending plans earlier.
Asked about Prince Harry’s remarks, he said: “It is a completely unacceptable.thing to say and it is right he has apologised.”
Institutions, including the Tory party, had had to “root out attitudes like that and that has to go right across the institutions,” he added.
Asked about a possible shadow cabinet reshuffle and the return on Ken Clarke, he said: “As far as I am concerned he is back already. I have got the big beasts in my tent - like Ken Clarke, like Michael Heseltine working for me in one way or another. But I am always looking for ways of strengthening my team.”
Asked if he believed he had made mistakes, he said: “I can now see how unaffordable Labour’s spending plans are. Perhaps we could have seen that earlier.”
He repeated his opposition to Labour’s economic policies saying he would seek savings in Whitehall and spend less that Labour planned, but he ruled out major tax cuts saying if voters expected a Tory government to slash taxes: “That is not what they should be thinking.”
His Conservatism was about responsibility, he added. “Government have to be responsible, people have to be responsible, bankers have to be responsible. That is where we have gone wrong.”
What is your best GE result in the ‘likely’ area,PtP ?
If the Tories scrape a minimum Overall Majority in July-December 2009 I win ALL my eight remaining Open bets.
I win all five on Betfair’s ‘Next General Election’ and also my 5-2 a 2009 GE, a Seat bet with Coral’s and my Sell of the Tories at 334.0.
Barring Black Swans like Ming Campbell regaining the Lib Dem crown or the Tories getting 430+ Seat I am guaranteed a win courtesy of money already banked and about to be banked.
Rosa Prince has a go at the DC interview on 3 line whip. She is so catty (to put it politely)and so left of centre . Journos like her are why I don’t buy the Labourgraph any more.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/
“As far as I am concerned he is back already.”
Anyone fancy trying to persuade the bookies to pay out that basis?
I’ve just put this complaint into the BBC about the incredible shambles of their interview with Cameron:
I’m writing to complain about the extraordinary incompetence and lack of professionalism with which the interview with David Cameron on this morning’s Andrew Marr show was conducted. The interview inexplicably went off air at least three times apparently due to technical difficulties. Each time this occurred the BBC cut back to the studio to get reactions to Cameron from known Labour supporter David Aaronovich. When the BBC did return to the interview voices could be heard in the background and people in the room could be seen reflected in Cameron’s table lamp. The BBC in effect destroyed and sabotaged this interview and it was impossible to concentrate on what Cameron was saying. There was no apology at the end of the programme. If anything Marr seemed to treat it as a joke. This technical shambles (from an organisation that successfully broadcasts from all over the world including war zones) was compounded by the bias of the constant interjections of David Aaronovich’s opinion. The anti-Tory intent was unmistakeable. What is the explanation for this dereliction of BBC responsibilities? You are supposed to maintain democratic traditions properly representing Her Majesty’s opposition. In the event the entire handling of the interview (including the bizarre choice of singer at the end singing ‘Woops I did it again’) was reminiscent of government-backed media attempts to undermine the opposition in countries with no democratic traditions. Please provide a full explanation of why this shambles occurred and your proposals to remedy this travesty of democratic accountability on the part of our public service broadcaster.
The Indy is obviously running its own book! Someone should hold them to 1000-1 on John Reid.
71 It’s a bit complicated, URW, but basically I want a big Tory win, the bigger the better, OR, a NOM result, with preferably the Tories just failing to reach the magic 326.
A Lab overall majority would be a disaster but frankly I think that’s Black Swan territory.
73 Are you optimistic on the Euros in Wales.
Any NOM is very,very good for me,PtP and probably better than the full set as described above.
A tiny LAB Overall is my very worst result barring the Tories going over 400.
72. I used to be a Telegraph subscriber but cancelled about 18 months ago. Last month had a phone call from the DT wanting to know why a) I’d cancelled, and b) would I subscribe again.
Their representative seemed bemused when I opined that the DT was suffering from an epidemic of crania inserted in fundaments and that the only ways a total dead loss like Rosa Prince would be employed by a theoretically serious newspaper would be because she was either related to the owners or had some really nasty dirt on the editor.
Also got the impression that calls to other ex-subscribers had received even shorter shrift.
72, that piece just seems weird.
The line to his home went down about 3 times. So he repeated what he’d said in case viewers had missed it.
And this is something backfiring? Oh noes!
It’s a journalist looking for anything that could even slightly be considered a problem. She even stated that the substance/style of his attacks on the government were decent enough.
Apparently political coherence and a damning attack on government is outweighed by repeating himself when technical difficulties attack.
No wonder the print media are leagues behind certain internet discussion forums.
I have an impression this morning of a load of old colonels sitting in wing chairs at the back of the club library muttering about how these young folk wear soft collars and how standards are slipping. It wasn’t like it in their day.
Mike
I totally agree with you that May 2010 is the likely date for the General Election. Brown is simply not in a good enough position to risk everything on an earlier poll. It would also sit badly with his statements that he is entirely focussed on the economic situation!
80 Which regiment were you in Witan
80. I think standards at all the broadsheets have slipped notably over recent years. Mike’s headline story is a nice example of the sloppy rubbish that now features in many of them.
The Telegraph’s decline over the last couple of years has been particularly marked, however - it is now full of dross.
77 Sounds good, URW. Guess neither of us is laying awake nights worrying.
78 - idly curious about this post: do many people subscribe to newspapers in some centrally-registered way? I thought everyone either picked them up at newsagents or had a newsagent deliver them, and hadn’t got the impression that newsagents pass on the lists to the national papers. On the Continent, it’s common to subscribe, but I thought it wasn’t in Britain.
83 - tend to agree with runnymede about the decline in the broadsheets. They’ve all noticed the Mail’s success and have been edging towards the middle market. The Sundays are even worse - on the rare occasions that I buy one instead of reading online, I junk about three quarters of the supplements unread.
81. Being entirely focussed on the economic situation gives one hope that something else will bite him on the bum while he isn’t looking. Just because the economy monopolises the headlines doesn’t mean that all other political/social activity stops - although he’d probably feel a lot more comfortable if they did.
‘it’s misleading and could undermine those punters like me who are gambling on markets like this’ - do you really think newspapers owe punters a duty of care every time they proffer odds. How pompous. I am also surprised you are so furious - surely as a veteran punter you must know the difference between real prices and those that are added to give some extra spice to a story
85 - But the Mail success is a bit 2005. It has had a fairly big decline in readership this past 12 months
85
Nick, loads of people subcsribe by voucher. The pay quarterly and either get the vouchers sent to the newsagent or directly to their home. I get my elderly neighbour’s Times every day with a voucher. I used to get the Telegraph with vouchers till I gave up when the Telegraph lost its way. I suspect the numbers who do pay with vouchers is considerable. Its 30% or so less expensive (or used to be) to do so. That said I don’t buy any paper, I can’t afford to, and my natural paper isnt the paper it used to be..
69. Sorry Peter, I may have committed the unforgivable sin of mixing your view up with the other Peter. Profound apologies.
I’ll add your horse to the watch list. Hopefully he’ll be able to jump a fence. I’ll try and get along to the party in March so we can compare our Cheltenham success.
85. It was cheaper to subscribe and get a book of vouchers than pay cash - and since I picked up a copy every day while walking the hound anyway, why not save the price of a pint every week?
This is an excellent article:
http://www.debatableland.com/the_debatable_land/2009/01/the-limits-of-reaganism.html
13 & 15. If the correct plural of court-martial is courts-martial, is the plural of cock-up “cock-ups” or “cocks-up”?
88/90: I see - thanks. Learn something new every day.
85. re. the supplements, ditto. 95% of paper reading is online now. I occasionally buy a Saturday Telegraph just because it’s more sociable reading it with my family than poring over the online version in my study. But normally it feels like a waste of money afterwards.
I have now 600 positions @ 41.5 average on the Intrade Depression Contract.
It has reach 49.9 early this morning.
I really about reloading to buy 500 more… for it is still a bargain, considering the bad shape of the economy, and the very possibility that the US GDP of Q4/2008 will be around -5, or even -7…
A lot of money can be here, even if we plan to sell it before expiration — after the release, in late January, of the official number of Q4/2008…
85, makes you wonder why a broadsheet doesn’t become as stereotypically broadsheetish as possible, because it’ll stand out from the crowd and have the ’serious paper’ market virtually to itself.
New thread - “Will you be the PB Political Forecaster of 2009?”
“Black Swan territory”
I love this expression!
Re the Prince Harry row, whilst I accept that a senior Royal using the term “Paki” is obviously newsworthy, am I the only one finding myself saying “So what?” about the whole thing?
It was obviously said in jest rather than in malice, and presumably not something the soldier in question found particularly offensive. I actually find it quite encouraging that a senior member of the Royal family isn’t so aloof and totally detached from common folk that he can’t use a term that is actually quite commonly used by a large cross-section of society to this day - rightly or wrongly. I’m sure it’s quite commonly used in the services, like any other form of banter, just as it is by many ordinary people. I quite often referred to my “Paki mates” when I was at school, in their company, and they even used the term themselves. Although I no longer use the term myself, many members of my family, colleagues and friends will talk of “nipping out to the Paki shop” without giving it a moment’s thought, or risk admonishment for using such a term in public. Why is “Paki” unacceptable as a term, yet “Taff” or “Paddy” seemingly ok for most people? (I accept some would find those terms offensive)
Is this another example of the metropolitan political/media elite being out of touch with reality?
76. I’m out of the loop a bit. I’m not overly optimistic because we rarely do well in European.
List candidates were late in getting selected so a bit behind.
Alan Butt Phillip is from a political dynasty, from what I could tell would be a good MEP in multi-lingual and could take on the commission etc at their own game, very shrewd.
I’ve heard a couple of rumours flying around about him putting in a drawing in some extra funding/help but I don’t know if there was anything to them beyond talk.
There’s also the worry of election fatigue (local parties having to run elections every year drains funds and hampers recruiting drives etc) and the Euros are the ones that tend to suffer from that.
But even with all that there’s hope of taking a seat, with UKIP collapsing I don’t think we’re all that far off. I’d have to do some research to work out the swing needed what with d’hondt and how many Labour’d have to lose to lose the second seat (or if Plaid continue sliding).
So a fair bit of hope, but not overwhelming; if you didn’t want to read the speculative detail.
MTF I am the even older colonel complaining about softies who need wing chairs and can’t do with straight-backed wood as we had to in my day.
agreed
Alan Milburn? A big beast?
Er…