Are punters starting to get cold feet?
As PB’s latest “The Money Says” Index – CON MAJ 54 (-2) – shows there’s been a slight move back against the Tories on the spread-betting markets where punters trade the number of seats the parties will get at the general election as though they were stocks and shares.
The slip back of just two seats in the projected Tory majority is not that great but it has taken place since the ComRes and ICM surveys meant that all the firms surveying UK political opinion now have double digit leads for Cameron’s party.
What’s interesting is that a Tory buy level of 356 seats seems to be the ceiling. This is where it got to last September when one poll had Labour 28% behind and the level beyond which the market did not move this time.
Much of the activity is be “traders” – gamblers who are not betting on the overall outcome to the election but are looking to short-term profits by guessing which way the levels will go. That’s certainly my approach to spread betting and I closed down my Labour sell position this morning.