CONSERVATIVES 42% (-6)
LABOUR 32% (+4)
LIB DEMS 14% (-3)
How close are we to a hung parliament?
After the YouGov poll at the weekend reported a Conservative lead of just ten points the Ipsos-MORI Political Monitor for March, just out, has numbers in almost exactly the same region.
This comes after a period when the spotlight has been off the Tory leader, David Cameron, following his bereavement leave.
It should be said that MORI only include in their headline figures those who are certain to vote. This tends to create a lot of turbulence and you see much bigger movements with the pollster than with surveys from other firms. Amongst all those naming a party (without the turnout filter) the shares are compared with last time CON 39% (nc): LAB 33% (+2): LD 17% (-2)
My reading is that there has been very little change between the parties but the headline numbers have been driven by a big increase in the proportion of Labour supporters saying they are 100% certain to vote. This has increased the size of the overall “pool” on which the headline figures are based and this has impacted on the Tory share.
Having noted that the Labour share is just four points down on what the party got at the last general election. The Tories are nine points up.
MORI is the only pollster that does not use party ID or past vote weighting to ensure politically balanced samples. Instead it has its public sector worker weighting which has been having a significant impact reducing both the Labour and more particularly the Lib Dem share.
Whatever this is a good poll for Labour although the big trend is still with the Tories. In every single opinion poll during 2009 the party has been in the 40s.
Amongst the minor parties it was SNP/PC 4%: Green 3%: BNP 2%: UKIP 1%