CON 44(+2) LAB 31(+1) LD 18(-2)
Sunday Telegraph poll gives Cameron a boost
A new poll by ICM for tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph is just out and sees Cameron’s party edging up further from the last survey from the firm in the Guardian a week and a half ago.
The shares, incidentally, are almost exactly the mirror image of the 1997 general election result when Labour got 44% to the 31% for the Tories led by John Major. The Lib Dems are nearly the same as that election as well.
Alas the electoral system is far less friendly to the Tories and while this would point to a solid overall commons majority Cameron’s Tories would have an overall margin barely a half that of the Labour landslide.
A share of 44% from the pollster is the third best of modern times. We saw 45 point totals twice last year.
There’s little doubt that the survey, from the pollster that’s got the best record over a longer period than anybody else, will give a boost to Cameron as the party starts to get into gear from June’s Euro Elections. It also underlines the trouble that Labour is in.
Nick Clegg will be a touch disappointed because ICM has by far the best record with his party than any of the other firms and its surveys are most closely looked at.
Polls, of course, are subject to a margin of error but it’s worth underlining that every single survey that we have seen in 2009 has had the Tories in the 40s. You’ve got to go back to December, while Brown Bounce II was still going on, to find a poll with the party on less than that.