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Spread punters move back to the Tories

April 7th, 2009

PB Moneys says Index: CON MAJ 53: Up 8 seats

There’s been a sharp move back to the Tories on the Sporting Index Commons seats spread markets following the latest polls showing that Cameron’s party is retaining its position.

The latest figures with the SELL price first and the BUY price second are: CON 349 – 354: LAB 226 – 231: LD 43 – 46 seats. This represents a four seat shift since Saturday.

Here punters looking for high risk/high reward political bets are risking quite big sums on the general election outcome. The number of seats that the parties will get are traded like stocks and shares and the art is to anticipate movement and get in before the bookmakers adjust their prices.

In the immediate aftermath of the G20 meeting the mood amongst gamblers, as reflected in the spreads, was that Brown had done well and that could lead to an electoral benefit. Most of the Tory spread drop then has now been clawed back and we are within just a couple of seats of the previous high level.

As we get closer to the election the level of activity will increase considerably.

To give you an idea of the scale of cash that people are risking I know one former member of Blair’s team at Number 10 who bought Labour seats at £100 a unit just before the November 2007 election was called off. The price he went in at was 332. To close that bet down tonight he would have to sell at 226 seats or a loss of 106 times his unit stake. That equals £10,600. – ouch!

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