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Labour move up to 23% in new YouGov poll

May 18th, 2009

CON 39 (-2) LAB 23(+1) LD 19 (nc)

But are the BNP gaining in the Euros?

There’s a new YouGov poll in the printed edition Daily Telegraph this morning which is not yet on their online pages which is why I missed it overnight.

The figures will provide a welcome relief for Labour and might cause a touch of concern for the Tories who are below 40% for the first time since 2007 in a survey from the pollster. The Lib Dems maintain their solid 19% from the firm that generally gives them the lowest shares.

The Euro voting intentions in the poll with comparisons on the previous YouGov poll taken just two days earlier are: CON 26%(-2): LAB 21(+2): LD 14(-5): UKIP 16(-3): BNP 7%(+4). The significant movement there is for the BNP which suggests that they might be doing best out of the expenses scandal.

The Tory Euro share of 26% is exactly the same as the party then led by Michael Howard achieved in 2004. This isn’t good news for David Cameron. He needs to be showing progress.

What’s striking in the Westminster figures is the continued rise of “others” – something that we’ve seen from all the pollsters in recent days and, as I have observed before, is a characteristic of polling every five years around the time of the Euro elections. But part of this might be being driven by the MP expenses exposes which have been dominating the news.

One factor that undermines the “other” parties in a general election campaign is the broadcasting coverage rules which favour the mainstream parties and SNP/PC in Scotland and Wales.

Mike Smithson






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