Majority of Scots think the release was wrong - YouGov
August 27th, 2009
Survey finds SNP Holyrood support down 5 points
Opinion polls confined to just Scotland are rare things indeed and according to UKPollingReport there have only been two this year - one by YouGov for the Sunday Times last January. UPDATE - the last Scottish YouGov poll was in June.
This morning the Daily Mail is carrying details of a new YouGov Scottish poll it commissioned following last week’s controversial release of Megrahi - the man convicted for the Lockerbie bombing.
On voting intention for the constituency element of the Holyrood parliament the poll shows the following with changes on the January June survey by the pollster: SNP 33 (-5): LAB 31 (-1): CON 16 (+3): LD 16 (+4). SNP 33 (-6): LAB 31 (+5): CON 16 (+2): LD 16 (+2).
Given the long time gap between the two YouGov polls it’s hard to conclude that the decline in the SNP’s share was down to Megrahi’s release. The Tory share is the highest that’s recorded from the pollster on the UKPollingReport table which goes back to the 2005 general election.
A Westminster voting intention was asked but the only figure I can find is the SNP on 25% which is down two on the January survey.
To the question “Do you think releasing Abdelbasset al –Megrahi was the right or wrong decision to make?” the sample split Right 42%, Wrong 51%. Like in the Angus-Reid GB poll reported here on Tuesday Lib Dem voters were much more likely to be supportive of the SNP-led government with 57% saying it was right. With Labour voters the proportion was 39% with Tories it was 30%.
Just 28% of those who took part backed Scottish independence. The Mail report says that this figure is down 8 points during the year but I have been unable to find that earlier poll. Before the last Scottish elections in 2007 YouGov reported that 42% were in favour.
Mike Smithson
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Od Dickson - whata mistaka to maka.
Therefore a majority of Scots are idiots.
There must be yet another Scottish centric Yougov due out as I’ve completed 2 this week. Very similar questions re Megrahi release and voting intentions, but if I remember correctly only the first one, which I presume is the one the thread is about, asked about independence. Both asked about regional list voting intention.
Mike, the latest Scottish YouGov was June 2009 (Sunday Times), not January. And there were Scottish YouGovs in March and April too. Not to mention two TNS System Three polls. I’m getting the links…
with changes on the January survey by the pollster: SNP 33 (-5): LAB 31 (-1): CON 16 (+3): LD 16 (+4).… Correct figures are:
… with changes on the June survey by the pollster: SNP 33 (-6): LAB 31 (+5): CON 16 (+2): LD 16 (+2).
2 Therefore a majority of Scots are sensible enough to know that you should not let those convicted of mass murder and terrorism out of prison.
June YouGov/Sunday Times Scotland link:
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/ST-scottish_June09.pdf
Note: all other 2009 survey links (both YouGov + Taylor Nelson Sofres) can be found here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011#Opinion_polls
So, there is a definite SNP to LAB swing there: small, but significant.
However, the change on both the CON and LD scores is within the MoE. PHEW!!
I would have been far more worried if it had been the other way round, with Labour flatlining and the Cons and LDs making the inroads into the SNP vote (as was the scenario with Mike’s original January comparison).
This we can cope with.
8. That’s all them cracks firmly papered over.
9 - Yep. 15% of the previous share of the vote lost but everything’s rosy because the movement is to Labour. (That’s 6/39 for those about to say “but it’s only down by 6%”.)
Actually, stopping to think a little bit more closely, that does make sense in a way as Labour is much more likely to lose it back again over the next 9 months due to their total and utter incompetence and being in government during what will be a worsening economy after the “oh so dead cat” bounce this quarter or next.
8 There is still one Scotsman in three who thinks that voting Labour is the right thing to do. Quite bizarre.
For the SNP not to be miles ahead (given that they are the government) is a very crap result. The apologia for terrorism ain’t gonna help much either, based on the above figures.
Mr Salmond - pull your bloody socks up man!
10 cont - Obviously the “being in government” line in 10 refers to the UK’s national government (as opposed to the over-egged county council sitting in Holyrood) as it is the only tier of government which will attract real ire for the economy’s weakness which makes it Labour’s problem.
To the question “Do you think releasing Abdelbasset al –Megrahi was the right or wrong decision to make?” the sample split Right 42%, Wrong 51%.
Oh dear. So much for the vast majority supporting it.
The interesting thing is that the “no opinion” share is very low.
Quite a big drop in the percentage vote for independence since we got an SNP administration at Holyrood. Must be the economy, can’t be the SNP administration, can it ?
********** Fantastic Bet Alert ! *****************
>>>>>> CORZINE vs CHRISTIE
Breaking News! A poll sponsored by Pollster Neighborhood (to which Pollster.com gives a Republican House Effect) gives Corzine (D) the lead over Christie (R) among likely voters… First time in months!
Among likely voters, Corzine leads Christie 37%-35%, with 6% for Daggett.
“If Corzine gets his liberal/urban/Democratic base together he’s going to open up a significant lead, forcing Christie to work the right,” Shaftan wrote in his analysis.
The poll was conducted between August 12-21 with a sample size of 319 and a margin of error of +/- 5.49%. The party breakout among respondents was 43% Democrat, 34% Republican, 23% unaffiliated.
http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/32543/poll-christie-leads-corzine-three-points
I know, I know: the lead is well inside the MoE. BUT - it’s pointing to a POTENTIAL reversal of the trend. Cf. Pollster’s Chart on the 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial General Election :
http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/09-nj-gov-ge-cvc.php
One of the best, safest bet right now is to buy Corzine at less than 50%, (or better than even) on intrade.
It’s safe coze it will not go down; it can only go up — so if one feels insecure about the eventual outcome of the race, one will surely be able to sell at more than 5$ what was bought for less.
15. Philippe Magnan: August 12-21 with a sample size of 319
I see two red flags there.
If it’s a trend not a rogue it’s certainly interesting.
13. LS - “So much for the vast majority supporting it.”
Dearie, dearie me. You just cannot help yourself, can you?
You are making things up, yet again.
The most optimistic SNP guesstimate I have seen is 50/50. No-one has said that “the vast majority” support it.
On the other hand, tim (and other, ahem, “less-scrupulous” posters) have gone on a lot about “only 11%” supporting it.
I think that you will find that the SNP posters (and other Scotland-based posters) were a heck of a lot nearer the truth than certain viciously anti-SNP commenters who self-evidently have not got a clue about Scottish civil society and Scottish public affairs. Eg you.
A couple of weeks ago you repeatedly called me a liar, without a scintilla of foundation. I will refrain from sinking to your level, but once again you have proved yourself to be an (ahem) “untrustworthy” source of commentary on Scottish politics.
10. Id - “Actually, stopping to think a little bit more closely, that does make sense in a way as Labour is much more likely to lose it back again over the next 9 months due to their total and utter incompetence and being in government during what will be a worsening economy… “
Id, there are actually several reasons why I am happier with a (hopefully temporary) swing to Labour, rather than a swing to Con/LD. And the reason you cite (incompetence at UK Govt level) is actually one of the less important reasons for my relief.
The biggest reason for the SNP to be less worried by a swing to Labour can be summed up in two words: Iain Gray.
Rarely have I wanted a big story to break to derail a thread so much.
LS — True enough. Red flags are waving.
It will be certainly very interesting anyway. NJ politics has the reputation of being very nasty! For me, it’s like watching a movie in slow motion. Or playing some kind of video game where I can win or lose…. money!
*popcorn noise*
Mike, you say “Opinion polls confined to just Scotland are rare things indeed and according to UKPollingReport there have only been two this year - one by YouGov for the Sunday Times last January.”
… but this is total pants!
Anthony Wells has really let UK Polling Report go, as a resource for politics junkies.
I have informed him several times of Scottish polls, but he never lists them.
Eg. he said not a peep about the huge ICM/BBC Scotland poll to mark the 10th anniversary of devolution. A really, really important piece of polling IMHO. Mind you, you did not mention it either. However, the BBC made a big thing of it north of the border, with several high-profile BBC stories over a whole week.
Go figure.
Christie vs Corzine : bullet recap of the last weeks
—————
“Christie says failure to report loan was “my mistake” Philadelphia Inquirer”
“Dem. chairman Cryan files election law complaint against Christie”
“Calling it an ‘oversight,’ Christie admits he failed to report a loan”
“New Jersey Prosecutor Who Got Loan From Christie Quits”
“Christie tries to link Corzine to Enron”
“It’s His Wall Street Way: Jon Corzine Fought for Tax Breaks for …”
“Webber wants Corzine to release Goldman Sachs lobbying records” [Corzine was GS's CEO IIRC]
“The Corzine campaign is skewering Mr. Christie in television commercials for awarding friends and allies lucrative no-bid contracts to monitor corrupt corporations.”
“Karl Rove says Chris Christie discussed NJ governor run while serving as U.S. Attorney…”
“‘Well Known’ Christie Was Planning To Run”
“Troubled by Christie’s ties to Rove, Ashcroft, Bush-Cheney politics”
“Christie was ticketed for driving unregistered, uninsured car in 2005″
“Report: Christie got lenient treatment during 2005 traffic stop”
“For Christie, another self-inflicted wound”
“GOP Uses Technicality to Oust Corzine Supporters from School Grounds”
Funny:
“NJ cockroach contest predicts Corzine will beat Christie in … “
Thinking about it - is this result very slightly bad news for Dave?
One key way for Labour to suffer an utter rout at the GE will be for them to lose badly in both Wales and Scotland. The Tories will get a handful of Scottish seats but its the SNP who ought to be inflicting the worst damage.
If the porridgenats are not crushing their enemies, seeing them driven before them and hearing the lamentation of their women - then maybe that implies that Labour won’t get quite so spectacularly thumped as we have all perhaps been assuming north of the border.
19. James - “Rarely have I wanted a big story to break to derail a thread so much.”
Scottish politics a bit tedious James? Don’t worry, you’ll be shot of us shortly and we’ll never bother you again.
Morning all.
Not a great poll for the SNP, but not disastrous either. I thought the unanimity of SNP supporters and the suggestion of most LibDems supporting the decision would give a majority in favour, but it seems not so.
In Westminster terms, and Stuart will forgive me if I ignore Holyrood 2011 elections for the moment, this suggests that the SNP should be looking at fewer gains than perhaps expected - the growth in Conservative support would have been worrying if greater than the MoE (because of Angus and Perth & North Perthshire), but the swing back to Labour compared to January will restrict gains when almost all the SNP targets are Labour-held seats.
The big thing in this poll, IMNSHO, is the low number saying “don’t know” to the release, as LondonStatto points out at 13. That suggests strngth of feeling, and (like the rest of the UK) Scotland seems split into two fairly ardent camps. That should be troubling for those wanting Independence. The SNP has done brilliantly at cultivating the centre-ground of Scottish politics and appealing across the spectrum - the release was always going to be contentious, and to force them to one side or another, and it was simply a question of whether they fell one side or another.
The 28% pro-Independence doesn’t surprise me. Irrespective of rational feelings about whether it would be good for Scotland, this week has seen Scotland in the full glare of international opinion, and much of it fierce. Under those circumstances, people are only going to say “yes, that was great” if they are true believers - it would be instinctive to be a little shaken by the experience, and to question whether you wanted more of the same “no safety net” decision-making at Holyrood governing your life. Emotionally, the realisation of quite how independent independence would be I think has scared off waverers in this poll - they’ll be back, I expect, but the 28% is back-to-bedrock
support.
15 - Phillipe, always good to see you back here. I am of the school that says New Jersey always flirts with the GOP before going home to the Dems, though for once I thought the Republican might win it. I think this is a junk poll designed to freak Christie into embracing the teabagger/deather/birther Republicans. If he falls for it, he doesn’t deserve to be Governor, but that’s not to say he won’t. Good bet.
17. Stuart Dickson: You just cannot help yourself, can you?
Takes one to know one. I might have known that my comment would provoke a diatribe from you.
You are making things up, yet again.
Actually, no. I’ll refer you to this risible post by malcolmG yesterday morning, in which he cited a blogger referring to an “overwhelming endorsement for MacAskill’s decision”.
It was to that “poll” that I was referring.
A couple of weeks ago you repeatedly called me a liar, without a scintilla of foundation.
Well, if you think that pointing out you have been repeatedly making a statement despite knowing it to be untrue makes you a liar does not constitute “a scintilla of foundation”, then you are deluded. Alternatively, you’re just lying again.
23. Patrick - … maybe that implies that Labour won’t get quite so spectacularly thumped as we have all perhaps been assuming north of the border.”
But Patrick, there is actually also a flip-side to this coin, that could be very positive for Dave:
* If the Labour Party are doing this well in Scotland, then they are artificially boosting Labour’s GB polling numbers. Considering that they are only about 25% GB-wide, if you assume they are doing a lot better in Scotland, then just how bad must Labour be doing in England and Wales?
24 - I don’t find Scottish politics any more or less tedious than any other form of politics. I just find it best when a debate hits the stage of trench warfare to move onto other things. Also I prefer not to waste valuable time with those of such pompous and arrogant certainty that they refuse even to compass that someone else is entitled to a different opinion.
I think Red Meteor owes me a fiver. Hah.
My first ever official pb wager, an easy win.
23. I don’t think this is more than microscopically bad news for Cameron. His party is up in Scotland, and most of his possible victories there will be unaffected by this. Labour may scrape back a few seats, but I’m guessing the damage done by this - to the SNP - will largely unwind after a few more months of Broon.
Where the damage has been done, though, I am sure, is to the cause of independence. The majority of Scots will have seen the SNP’s first performance on the international stage and thought: oh my f*cking god. No thanks.
And all that stuff about a “higher power”? Jeez.
Silly silly nats. Silly silly people on here telling us that all Scotland thought this was brilliant.
What a numptyfest.
Afternoon all
While I appreciate Stuart floundering around like many of the rest of us it’s a salient lesson that Government ain’t easy.
One of the features of local politics over the past decade or so is how long-established Conservative Councils got swept away in the early and mid-90s to be replaced by Labour, LD or coalition authorities with little or no experience of running a council.
The unpalatable truth is that not all of them did well and in many places the Tories are back after a spell in Opposition which will hopefully have been as informative for them.
When Labour won in 1997 they made mistakes from a lack of experience - the Conservatives will do the same once back in power. These won’t be terminal by any measure but they will and do occur.
The SNP are relatively new to Government and are on a learning curve. These decisions aren’t straightforward and it’s always worth remembering that you can’t please all the people all the time.
23. Patrick: is this result very slightly bad news for Dave?
Not sure it really matters. SNP gains from Labour don’t significantly affect the politics of the next Parliament, assuming that the Conservatives get a majority.
26 - lol! In that poll, how can they be so sure that everyone who expressed an opinion was from Scotland. A total farce..
27 Good point Stuart - hadn’t thought of that. So if the blue face paint mob can just make one big heave at the GE then we’ll really see this abomination exorcised.
As soon as David Steel spoke that there was overwhelming support for the action, something was wrong.
26. Oh dear.
So, 38 readers of an SNP blog support MacAskill, and the blogger says that is “an overwhelming endorsement for MacAskill’s decision”.
Yes, it was “an overwhelming endorsement for MacAskill’s decision” among the tiny readership of that particular blog. It told us nothing about how the Scottish people as a whole think. And neither the blogger, nor MalcolmG, claimed that it did.
30 Stodge. How blooming hard can it be for any politician that is not a total fuc*wit to determine that releasing convicted mass murdering terrorists from prison is, perhaps, a foolish thing to do?
34 I cant help it, but every time I See David Steel on the telly, I am immediately reminded of the Spitting Image charachterisation of him and David Owen.
They were the two stand out puppets on the programme.
FPT 184 No, 11% of 4.9 m is 540,000. 24% of 2.8m is just short of 700,000. Those are the government’s figures. You still haven’t given any sort of statistics for the level of Irish immigration over the period that Powell was referring to.
24. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if 2010-11 will be as disappointing for the SNP as 1978-9 was.
8. Whether those changes have happened in one big step or several little ones, they’ve still happened.
27. Scotland being less than one-tenth of GB, even a few percent overperformance for Labour Swing vis a vis the national swing would be only about a half percent underperformance in England / Wales. Of course, if the swings in England and Wales are not so evenly spread (and they won’t be), it could still lead to an appreciably different result from that which UNS predicts.
On topic, the SNP government’s been in place for over two years now. Governments take unpopular decisions; some because they have to; some because they miscalculate. I’m not too surprised at the changes in polling, particularly given the own-goal of the release. The SNP may well rebound a little from this but the overall trend is likely to be that of most govenments in a recession, particularly at the Westminster elections, where the prospect of a Tory government may well drive some back to Labour (and others to the Conservatives, in a few seats where they’ve a realistic chance of winning).
And of course this poll does not say how many of these people thought releasing him was OK but the Nats totally screwed it up - with Gadaffi humiliating them, MacAskill kowtowing on his prayer mat in Holyrood etc.
Nor does it say how many of those who thought releasing him was OK would have preferred releasing him to a SECURE MEDICAL FACILITY CLOSER TO HIS DEATH, which I am guessing would have been the favoured option for a large majority of Scots, Brits and possibly Americans too.
And yes Stuart there WERE Nats on here claiming this decision was broadly supported, widely welcomed, enthusiastically received, etc etc, all of which implies a majority in favour; some Nats even posted straw polls and internet polls proving a majority in favour.
You lost. You made yourselves look like chumps. You’ve set independence back by several years, not that it was ever gonna happen anyway. You made a stupid decision.
That’s politics. Get over it. Have a marmalade sandwich and cheer up. As you say I am sure Scottish Labour’s gain will be temporary, they are even more inept than Salmond and Macaskill.
And now can we PLEASE move on from f*cking McGrahi. Kapunkap.
37 …and Kinnock…
..my all time fave was Kinnock being asked if he supported something and replying: ‘Ohh, luvvly, luvvly, luvvly, luvvly, luvvly - in all manner of luvvliness’.
(it was this sketch that informed my characterisation of the Taffynats yesterday as: Leeks are loverly, isn’t it?)
25. Morus - “Not a great poll for the SNP, but not disastrous either.”
Indeed.
A very good summary Morus, and I would not disagree with your substantive points. (Although I think that you were a tad optimistic to think that SNP + some LD supporters would somehow come to over 50%.)
40. SeanT - “You’ve set independence back by several years, not that it was ever gonna happen anyway.”
That is oxymoronic. How can you set something back several years if it isn’t going to happen at all?
Morning all!
To me the most significant thing about this poll is , as Stuart points out above, the fact that Labour is flatlining. Gray has been an absolute disaster as Leader and his performance on Monday was widely regarded as abysmal. The SNP are fortunate that they are not facing a more substantial or articulate Labour opponent or they could be in for a rough ride.
The other interesting thing is the big pick up for the LibDems who have been floundering in Scotland since 2005. Tavish Scott was also supposed to have not had a good day on Monday so the big gain is surprising.
The Tories will be very pleased at this result, particularly if it is replicated in the Westminster figures. They do have some chances against the SNP next year, especially Perth and North Perthshire where Peter Wishart has a majority of just 1,200. Easteross has long said that this could be a big surprise on election night.
Overall, disappointing for the SNP but not fatal and certainly the Salmond Government is under no immediate threat.
41 It would make a great thread in its own right to discuss how Spitting Image would portray modern day politicians.
Rob D @ 32
Yougov asks for your postcode when you register, of course you could put in any old postcode, but as this is how they generate these localised polls you’d need to do that in advance. Not much point really.
Maybe Dave should have a big multi-Q referendum soon after he wins: EU, Scotland, English parliament, elected Lords, blood eagle or stake burning for Gordon - that sort of thing. Get all the shit on the table up front and clear the air.
The SNP would of course be desperate to avoid this, knowing the inevitable outcome. Dave would then be free to enjoy the lamentation of the Scottish women for a generation.
Four Labour ministers met Libyans before bomber’s release
Three ministers visited Libya in the months leading up to the release of the Lockerbie bomber, Abdelbaset Ali Mohamed al Megrahi, it has emerged.
A Cabinet minister also held talks with his Libyan counterpart in Geneva.
The disclosures will add to the pressure on Gordon Brown to explain exactly what trade or other deals have been negotiated with Libya. It is certain to lead to calls for an inquiry into the circumstances around the release.
48. link
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6094986/Four-Labour-ministers-met-Libyans-before-bombers-release.html
Under-fire Kenny MacAskill takes holiday as new row breaks out over Lockerbie bomber release
Aug 27 2009 Dave King
UNDER-PRESSURE justice secretary Kenny MacAskill went on holiday yesterday as a fresh row began over the government’s handling of the Megrahi affair.
A Scottish government spokesman confirmed that the minister was taking a short break.
He added: “The justice secretary is taking a few days’ leave - his first since the start of recess in June.
“Next Wednesday, he will lead a parliamentary debate on the Megrahi issue and once again be happy to answer any and all questions MSPs may have.”
But that drew little sympathy from Labour’s deputy justice spokesman Paul Martin.
He said: “Kenny MacAskill’s decision to disappear on holiday when there are still vital questions to be answered about Megrahi’s release is a snub to the Lockerbie victims.
“The justice secretary still needs to publish the documents that led him to order the release of Megrahi. Instead, when the going gets tough, MacAskill gets going.”
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2009/08/27/under-fire-kenny-macaskill-takes-holiday-as-new-row-breaks-out-over-lockerbie-bomber-release-86908-21627309/
LOCAL government and police chiefs drew up a plan to ensure the Lockerbie bomber could remain in Scotland if he was released from jail, placing further question marks over why SNP ministers agreed to allow him to return to Libya.
East Renfrewshire Council and Strathclyde police made the arrangements last year, in case Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi was released from Greenock Prison on appeal.
A temporary police station would have been built outside the home in Newton Mearns where the Megrahi family stayed. The plan also considered how to handle media interest and where the bomber’s children could go to school.
Justice secretary Kenny MacAskill was aware of the plan last week when he was deciding whether to allow Megrahi to return to Libya.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland/Plans–drawn-up-if.5592393.jp
Gordon Brown is under increasing pressure to reveal his view on the decision to free the Lockerbie bomber and to provide details of trade deals with Libya.
Gordon Brown met Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi at the G20 in Italy
The Prime Minister broke from his holiday to commend the England cricket team’s Ashes victory but chose not to comment on the release of convicted terrorist Abdelbaset al Megrahi.
Then from Downing Street yesterday Mr Brown said he was “shocked and replused” by the heroes welcome the bomber was given on his return to Libya.
But he refrained from commenting on Scotland’s Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill’s decision to release the man convicted of the 1988 terror attack on compassionate grounds.
Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s son, Saif, said al Megrahi’s release was tied to a trade deal.
Opposition parties said this raised “serious questions”.
They called for details of British trade with Libya after it emerged three ministers had visited the country in the 15 months leading up to the bomber’s release.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Gordon-Brown-Silence-Over-Lockerbie-Bombing-Slammed—PM-Asked-To-Give-Details-Of-Libya-Trade-Deals/Article/200908415369352?lpos=Politics_First_Poilitics_Article_Teaser_Regi_0&lid=ARTICLE_15369352_Gordon_Brown%3A_Silence_Over_Lockerbie_Bombing_Slammed_-_PM_Asked_To_Give_Details_Of_Libya_Trade_Deals
48. Does this mean that Brown will disapper for another week, or will he try to step up attacks on Gen Dannent, Dan Hannan or city bankers?
8. Stuart Dickson:
“So, there is a definite SNP to LAB swing there: small, but significant.
However, the change on both the CON and LD scores is within the MoE. PHEW!!
I would have been far more worried if it had been the other way round, with Labour flatlining and the Cons and LDs making the inroads into the SNP vote (as was the scenario with Mike’s original January comparison).
This we can cope with.”
But how do you know that there isn’t a swing from SNP to Conservative in Perth and Angus, a swing from SNP to LibDem in Inverness and Argyll, and a swing from SNP to Labour in Dundee and Kilmarnock? We could be seeing a small but vital shift to anti-SNP tactical voting.
As you well know UNS doesn’t work particularly well in Scotland.
Remember also that this is likely to be the high water mark for Megrahi’s release. The longer he lives from now on the greater the number of people who will think his release is wrong.
There might also be embarassing revelations of SNP incompetance and/or dubious dealings over the case.
52. When will the BBC catch up with that story about Rammel, Primarolo, Jones meeting Libyans?
55 The story in its entirety has the propensity to explode, the developments and the speed thereof will be interesting. I have this one down as a slow burner for now. Questions, more questions, evasiveness… the path is a well trodden one.
“A Cabinet minister also held talks with his Libyan counterpart in Geneva.”
Now who might that be?
Lockerbie probe call over ministers’ trips to Libya
Gordon Brown was facing calls for an independent inquiry last night as more evidence emerged of Labour’s close links to Libya in the wake of the release of the Lockerbie bomber.
Senior MPs said an official probe was needed into claims that the case of Abdelbaset Al Megrahi was on the table during trade deals and discussions with Colonel Gaddafi’s regime.
Cabinet Office papers last night revealed that three ministers made trips to Tripoli in the past 15 months.
Then business minister Lord Jones travelled to Libya in May last year to discuss trade and business links, health minister Dawn Primarolo conducted talks with senior figures in Tripoli last November, and foreign minister Bill Rammell held discussions on terrorism in February.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1209327/Lockerbie-probe-ministers-trips-Libya.html
There’s only so much one can say about releasing terrorists. So let’s have a quick PB 08:00 on a Thursday morning referendum. Votes please:
After he loses power in an unprecedented electoral humiliation should Gordon Brown, destroyer of the nation, suffer:
A. A blood eagle; or
B. Being burnt at the stake; or
C. Something more inventive - you choose please.
59
I vote C. He should be sat naked in the gorilla pen at London Zoo and made to beg for bananas (and hosed clean occasionally).
55 - Don’t hold your breath.
“The story in its entirety has the propensity to explode, the developments and the speed thereof will be interesting.”
And Gaddaffi having all the details must be very reassuring for all involved.
If Gaddaffi spills the beans then political detonation. It doesn’t even have to be the truth he tells as how could Labour disprove a lie?
59. any of the punishments outlined by the Mikardo, perhaps this one;
“The billiard sharp whom anyone catches, His doom is extremely hard— He’s made to dwell In a dungeon cell On a spot that’s always barred; And there he plays extravagant matches In fitless finger-stalls, On a cloth untrue With a twisted cue And elliptical billiard balls!”.
59. Patrick
I believe SeanT is the authority in this field.
64 The Genesis Secret is still not bloody available in the Philippines
(Sort your publisher out mate)
No doubt Sean would choose option C with something amusingly aposite.
47. Patrick - “The SNP would of course be desperate to avoid this, knowing the inevitable outcome.”
Au contraire. We back a referendom REGARDLESS of what the outcome might look like being.
The SNP want the Scottish people to be given the choice of voting for independence if they want to.
If they don’t want to, then fine. At least they will have been given the opportunity.
If Dave wants to allow an honest referendum on Scottish independence then great. We would back him 100%.
59 C
He should be made to stand on the plinth in Trafalgar Square apologising for anything anyone asks him to for a month after which time 3 children on each others shoulders in a comedy Judge outfit will appear in front of him and say ‘Not good enough’ through a Dalek helmet voice changer. He will then be sent to Sandhurst where he will do a number of live military exercises using the perfectly adequate equipment he has provided the army with before having all his goods and chattels confiscated by the state.
As the naked and destitute Brown wanders the streets asking for help he will be told the state has lost his data and he no longer exists and any benefits he might have been entitled to have been put towards paying down the debt that some unknown former PM left us with (no-one remembers his name but he was definitely not as good as Blair)
Something like that
28. Says the pompous ass to himself
I suppose this whole issue come down to, You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.
The decision taken by MacAskill was sadly based upon a tissue of lies, half-truths, political machinations, foreign interference, business interest etc etc rather than how MacAskill described it as a Quasi-Legal Process. If he had been up front and said he was releasing Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi as it was the least embarrassing way of sorting out the problem then this whole issue might have been over, blame could have been apportioned over all the different parties who had handled it badly over the years and life would go on.
c. forced to watch home video of Tony and Cherie cheering when BBC announce that Cameron has a majority and can form the next government.
66 Yeah right. I’m sure that’s what Mr Salmond has worked towards his whole career.
OT
This doesn’t apply to anyone posting on this thread, but the excerpts above reminded me.
Over the last few days I have seen a number of media stories cut & pasted whole into a comment. That’s not reasonable use of copyright material and may get OGH into trouble. Excepts & links are much better.
28. And that from a pompous ass no less
59
Definitely C
Brown should be forced to go round the country apologising to each and every person by name for the horrendous balls up he’s made of this country over the last 12 years.
This is what a character out of Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy did.
72 - I am afraid playground insults do not cut it.
by malcolmG August 26th, 2009 at 8:20 am
73 I seem to recall something out of Braveheart when Mel tells all those nasty English to go back south to London and kiss every Jock’s arse on the way - or words to that effect.
46. They must be selective however, I did not get invited to the poll despite local postcode, maybe fact that I am down as an SNP supporter had a factor. Anybody know how they do their selection.
59 Another pointless post,at odds with a number of interesting posts on the latest opinion polls in Scotland.
On the poll itself, if I can be forgiven for putting a labour point of view,the poll does bring some relief amongst the gloom and I just wonder if this improvement in Labour fortunes may be mirrored in future UK wide polls.
Personally, I find Scotland the hardest part of the UK to predict the next general election results in.
I think it’s fairly clear that there is going to be a swing to the Tories and away from Labour and the LibDems in England and Wales although this is not necessarily the case in Scotland.
Like it or not, there are not going to be massive Tory gains in Scotland. You would expect them to win a few seats, mainly in the south, although you would think any beneficiary of a decline in Labour support would be the SNP or the LibDems. The LibDems have already done very well in the 2005 election and the SNP vote is very difficult to predict with Scottish Government issues coming into play. Perhaps there won’t be much change to the 2005 Scottish results after all.
Patrick @ 59
He should be forced to wear a Gimp mask become Cherie Blair’s personal dogsbody.
Or perhaps he should be given a job with citizens advice, specialising in helping pensioners with money problems.
“John Prescott, the party’s former Deputy Prime Minister, backed Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill’s releasing of the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing.”
Ergo, Kenny MacAskill’s decision was wrong.
QED
77. valleyboy
I doubt a swing from SNP to Labour is going to be replicated in England.
40.”And of course this poll does not say how many of these people thought releasing him was OK but the Nats totally screwed it up - with Gadaffi humiliating them, MacAskill kowtowing on his prayer mat in Holyrood etc.”
Seant, it was disappointing not to have then had the further break down of those who agreed with Megrahi’s release. Straight release back to Libya, release under supervision in Scotland, or release to a Libyan prison/medical facility.
That, I think would have further compounded the unpopularity of this decision by the SNP.
We are now being fed the line that this was not only the decision that all right minded folk would agree with, but also it was a very ‘brave’ decision as if that makes it alright. Governments make tough decisions all the time, that is what they are elected to do.
We have been fed the religion and the saltire, I will throw up if I have to take Braveheart as well.
71. Serf: That’s not reasonable use of copyright material
In your opinion; I’m not aware of any applicable case law (though am willing to read any judgements I might have missed if someone can point me to them), and legislation does not restrict the amount of a copyrighted work that can be quoted, provided that the quotation is fair dealing.
mirthos @ 80
Prescott just has sympathy for anyone who hasn’t had a bit of tail or a slap up meal in a while. His judgement is clouded somewhat.
59. C, but I’m kind. He should just have to go on the game until he has paid back all of the debt that he has lumbered onto the country. It should only take the next million years or so.
LondonStatto
I bow to your superior knowledge on that detail.
However, I do worry that with the current bad feeling about blogs in the MSM, I am sure that many publications might be willing to try it on against relatively defenceless bloggers.
#59, by Patrick August 27th, 2009 at 8:18 am
There’s only so much one can say about releasing terrorists. So let’s have a quick PB 08:00 on a Thursday morning referendum. Votes please:
After he loses power in an unprecedented electoral humiliation should Gordon Brown, destroyer of the nation, suffer:
A. A blood eagle; or
B. Being burnt at the stake; or
C. Something more inventive - you choose please.
C: Stick the cabinet in the Cube!
re 3 & 4. Thanks Stuart. I’ve now updated the post.
My fault for relying on Anthony Wells’s UKPolling Report which is usually spot on.
I’ll be seeing Anthony on Saturday - we are both speaking to the same conference in, appropriately, Glasgow!
We should get the YouGov/Telegraph poll this evening I think?
re 77. There has been some improvement in Labour’s YouGov national figure since June. Just before the Euro elections it was down to 21%. It’s now at 28%.
YouGov tends to show the extremes. The other pollsters have Labour at 24 - 25%.
59- see 86. Brown the hooker would be hilarious.
90. No probs Mike!
As you know, I am a big fan of both PB and UK Polling Report, but I must admit that Anthony’s recent disinterest in Scottish polling (and especially in keeping his database of polls up to date) has been a huge disappointment.
ConHom Frontpage - “Talking of T-shirts, I saw one recently on a most un-Tory-looking youth: across its front I’M NOT INTERESTED IN POLITICS BUT I DON’T LIKE LABOUR. Polling experts emphasise the importance of what they call DA (differential abstention: meaning more stay-at-homes among one party’s declared supporters than another’s) but this looks more serious. For Labour, GA (or galvanised apathy) could prove a lethal force. I’d recommend the Tories have a million of these T-shirts produced — anonymously.” - Matthew Parris in The Times“
Are we likely to get the Westminster voting intention figures?
96. Bob - “Are we likely to get the Westminster voting intention figures?”
Yes, usually within two working days, so probably up on YouGov’s website on Monday. (Might be tomorrow, but I doubt it.)
95.Also in the Times article by Matthew Parris - Gordon Brown has resigned. Did you know?
“The Prime Minister’s odd behaviour over Lockerbie can have only one explanation
Weird-sounding to say this, I realise, but I have the strongest of impressions that Mr Brown has already resigned. I’m not sure on what level I mean that — whether perhaps I just mean he is resigned; or that he has taken a mental step still to be followed up by action; or that an agreement has been reached but has yet to be disclosed. But of one thing I’m strangely sure: that in some way, and on some level, Mr Brown has gone.”
I got the same feeling earlier this week.
522.”By my reckoning by then he’ll have had a continuous holiday stretching over at least 6 weeks. Surely this is unprecedented for a Prime Minister in recent times.”
PfP, as far as I am aware, its certainly completely unprecedented for Gordon Brown, totally out of charactor in fact. Little snippets abound about Darling and Johnson. Harman, Darling and Mandelson standing in for him in a very ad hock manner, as if they were simple on call rather than running the country. David Miliband popping up to slip on another banana skin. I think he has finally decided to go, its just the timing of it.
Far too quiet on the government side in fact.
by ChristinaD August 26th, 2009 at 12:30 am
O/T
Does this article in the Grauniad put a mockers on Mike’s Mandleson bet for PM?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/aug/27/straw-mandelson-commons-lords
Oh give me strength-I have just read about police in London actually taking stuff from cars that are left unlocked or windows open and making the owner have to go through the rigmorole of claiming them back FFS.
First of all have police the actual right in law to do this? It sounds unlawful to me taking stuff without the owners permission and when did it become a crime to actually have a bit of TRUST in people not to steal and not be an obsessive about alarms and locks etc
Memo to police -its the car thieves that are responsible for car crime not car owners .
This country is finished with this thinking
95- there’s a US website selling t shirts with conservative inclined slogans, some are very funny, some others could get you in trouble if worn over here.
http://www.thoseshirts.com/
morning all and thanks to MTF for alerting me to this thread.
A very interesting poll indeed and worthy of decent analysis. Stuart is correct that the main threat to the SNP will be losing votes to the Tories and LibDems, both in seats it hopes to win/risks losing and also where it is the clear alternative to Labour and needs Tories and LibDems to “lend” their votes to the SNP to kick out Labour incumbents.
Given the torrid week the SNP has received at the hands of the media, to register such a small fall does indeed seem to confirm that there is a substantial minority who agreed with the Megrahi release, whether on compassionate grounds or because they believed, as I do, that ultimately he would be found to be an innocent man.
The Labour poll number is not good. After 2 and a half years of Alex Salmond, Scottish Labour should have been ahead of the SNP. I suspect it will ultimately poll at around 30% if it is lucky at the GE.
It is a good poll for both the Tories and LibDems in Scotland. It is the highest SLD poll I think since 2005 so Tavish Scott is clearly appealing to his own support and if he can keep most of the 500,000 who voted SLD in 2005 then on election night he will be celebrating keeping his Westminster Group in double figures.
For the Tories it is good because traditionally all pollsters in Scottish only polls have understated the Tory support by 3-5% from what actually happens at the following election.
Pre 2005 and 2007 the polls had us down in single figures fairly often and rarely above 12%. We scored 15.7 and 16.6% in the actual elections respectively. I have said I expect the Scottish Tories to top 20% at the GE and all the evidence thus far points to this happening.
The one thing this poll confirms is that with 8 months to go, all 4 major parties in Scotland have lots to play for.
Pleased to see the figure for Independence at 28%.
Wee Alex should have got a referendum before he and his overpromoted local councillors let people have a look over the ledge.
98 - I agree.
My betting positions maximise with Brown resigning on New Years Day.
I’m yet to be persuaded that this is incorrect.
(although I’m prepared to accept New Years Eve)
28% for independence is a great poll.
101 - Some of those are quite good. I like the ”Meat is Murder….Tasty, tasty murder” one.
105. astateofdenmark.
Agreed. I also liked the one that simply says “FBO” - quite clever.
Anthony still floundering around over at UKPR:
- “Voting intention questions were asked, but so far I can only find the Holyrood constituency figures, which are CON 16%(+1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 16%(+3), SNP 33%(-4). Changes are from the last YouGov poll I can find in Scotland, which was conducted back in April.”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2228
And check out the girls modelling this t-shirt:
http://www.thoseshirts.com/hippies.html
101 http://www.redmolotov.com also has some very amusing ones.
108: Ding dong!
74. Do you ever post any proper comments, it was a response in kind, if you can understand that.
103, 105 - Now, how does Alex Salmond get out of his commitment to hold a referendum next year? Surely one of the three main opposition parties is going to break ranks and call his bluff?
Sadly, they don’t do this in Martin Day’s size, or I would have suggested a whip round for one:
http://www.thoseshirts.com/imaginekid.html
111 Shurely you mean propah comments?
111. should have been to 75.
102. Easterross, excellent summation as ever.
98 Christina - I think Gordon Brown has been hard at work on one thing to exclusion of all else “The Autumn 2008 Re-Launch”. Doubtless Ed Balls and Mandelson have been on hand/blackberry as Gordon prepares.
Evidence:
The Hidden Face of The Tory Party - not only Mandelson & Burnham bigging up Hannan but an interesting slant in the Guardian on Gove’s proposals by Ed Ball’s just emerged himself from Summer hibernation “By dressing up his policy in Swedish clothes in the hope it looks progressive and socially democratic, Michael Gove is trying to hide the true nature of his deeply conservative, unprogressive and laissez-faire approach to education.” Expect a great deal of the Demon Eyes behind David Cameron’s smile.
“Backing Young Britain” - expect a big push on tackling youth unemployment, with special schemes, campaigns, trying to bring in corporations (incl BBC). The title has patriotic overtones, not as blatant as BJFBW. We will get tired of hearing about it.
“Real Help Now” - a flurry of announcements about building on the green shoots of recovery.
“Compassionate Spending Cuts” - trailed this week, recognition that the Labour Investment/Tory Cuts stuff doesn’t work so while no Public Spending Review there will be cherry picked cuts and increased efficiency savings announced. Additionally expect ramp up in lines like Balls uses “when the Tories are already committed to cutting frontline spending on schools” - a lie as the Conservatives have said the opposite and that they will protect frontline services but one that will be repeated with more and more regularity.
102 Edinburgh Southwest?
97- thanks for that
105- that’s my favourite too
109- I’m loving the Maggie Thatcher as Che shirt, I may have to get one
Westminster intentions be damned. Any sign of the real deal - the list scores?
102 - Both Stuart Dickson and you have described the SNP’s fall in support as a small drop. A 6% drop doesn’t seem small to me in absolute terms and represents more than 1/7th of the previously-stated support for the SNP. Or am I missing something?
109 This just has to be bought:
http://www.redmolotov.com/catalogue/tshirts/funny-tshirts/gordon-brown-end-is-nigh-tshirt.html
Thank you for your kind word, Morus. And good luck with that book to come!
***
I agree with Tim and ChristinaD. Gordon Brown will probably go before the next GE. I wish he will do it fast, however. With my winnings, I will buy a big powerful motorcyle. I’ve bought recently a Honda Wave 125, and riding across Thailand is simply fantastic. It’s the first time I’m riding and I’ve quickly became a junky! So I’m dreaming bigger now — it’s faster and way safer. So Gordon, please go as quickly as you can without losing too much face! I want to download that green money on betfair !
30 - Interesting, but I am not sure the local government analogy quite works. The strong swing back to the Tories has much more to do with an extended period in opposition than “inexperienced” councillors getting elected.
I think the reality is that a small minority of Councils are clearly awful, a small minority are brilliantly run, and the large majority are controlled by the party which is well organised locally and has a fair wind behind them nationally.
If you look at those Councils where Labour unexpectedly picked up control or largest party status out of nowhere in 1994/5 when Labour could walk on water, these include a lot of fairly small district councils. It is not, frankly, rocket science running these things. Existing council officers are highly experienced and do most things, the level of strategic vision required from the political leadership is not high and in most cases Labour did adequately in power. But they simply lacked the local organisation to back up their shock gains and fell back (often being almost totally eliminated) in the subsequent years. Nothing to do with disasters in office or lack of experience - just they lacked the firepower to fight back when the national approach to Labour was still quite positive but not the absurd euphoria of early-Blair.
These account for Tory gains under Hague, IDS, Howard and maybe even a year or two of Cameron. More recently, however, Labour’s losses have primarily being in strongholds where they have ample experience in power. These losses don’t tell us much about how hard it is to run Lancashire County Council - they tell us Labour is so unpopular that they are losing some extraordinary council seats.
117.Ted, if Brown goes, those left behind in his government still have to fight the next GE. I think that the same old Tories strategy we are seeing from Mandelson&Co is aimed at getting the core vote out, and an attempt to claw back some of the Labour switchers since 2005.
Brown can disappear for weeks while others start to emerge with these attacks, but the PM is such a key factor in a GE campaign, its has become as much about them as their party. He has been irreparable weakened even further since the Euro’s/Local elections and that disastrous reshuffle.
His last throw of the dice was the hope of real green shoots of recovery from this recession, but now we are all focused on debt and unemployment.
Stuart, I see you are still claiming that the Scottish Nits didn’t ever claim to have majority support on the Mick McGrahi issue.
What’s this weird post I just found then:
“The indicative Radio Scotland phone-in after the Parliamentary debate – monitored by all the parties – was instructive. Callers were overwhelmingly in favour of MacAskill, and they were definitely not all SNP. Vote of confidence next week? No chance.
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Martin-Hannan-US-has-no.5584214.jp
by Stuart Dickson August 25th, 2009 at 4:47 pm”
122 - In terms of political shock horror clothing stories that generate a response, the photoshoots of Israeli Defence forces women in bikinis is by far the best.
Strapline - They’re drop-dead gorgeous and can take apart an Uzi in seconds.,/i>
http://www.maxim.com/girls/girls-of-maxim/38282/israeli-defense-forces-.html?thumbnails=true
Upsetting Clare Short and Sheikh Qaradawi in equal measure.
125 - and today’s stuff on the NHS leaving the elderly to starve/sit in their own waste won’t help the ‘welovetheNHS’ meme.
Claire Rayner always sounds like she’s about to cry - on this story, it seems completely warranted.
7 The most relevant question at present is voting intnetion for Westminster not Holyrood.The Sunday Times poll link gives the following Party shares with change from 2005 GE shares in Scotland.
SNP 31(+13%),Lab 28(-11%), Con 17(+1%),Lib 16(-7%),Oth 8(+3%).
Mike sys that he can find only one Westminster voting figure at present which is 25% for the SNP.This is -6% on the Jun Westminster figures.This is the same as the Holyrood change change for SNP.
If w eapply the Holyrood changes to the June Westminster voting w get, SNP 25%(-6),Lab 33%(+5)CON 19%(+2),Lib 18%(+2),0th 5%(-3.
In turn this gives the following changes since GE:
SNP + 7%,lAB-7%,CON +3%,LIB -5%.
WHAT DOES THIS PRODUCE IN TERMS OF seat GAINS AND LOSSES BETWEEN THE PARTIES?
127, got a tracking cookie from that link, so I’d advise not clicking. Running a full virus scan just to be sure.
127, got a tracking cookie from that link, so I’d advise not clicking. Running a full v1rus scan just to be sure.
123 I took my CBT and full test in a week and went same day as the test to get a 950 (Moto Guzzi). Happy days. I miss that bike. (Very scary for first week, though!)
102. Easterross - “Given the torrid week the SNP has received at the hands of the media, to register such a small fall… “
Indeed.
This is a key point.
Up against the combined power of the mighty BBC (Mark Thompson’s team played a total blinder), ably aided and abetted by CNN, Sky, Fox ets. (nearly everyone can get a US 24 hour news channel nowadays), STV, + the rabidly anti-SNP press… and still the SNP only drops 6 points!!
Now THAT is noteworthy.
129 rogerh has produced a nice fag packet set of numbers which feel in the right territory from my point of view here in Edinburgh. The problem with his question is that because of the very patchy nature of Scottish politics and the wide regional differences in the success of the Tories and Lib Dems and the large Labour majorities over the SNP in the rest of the country the only real answer is - ‘no idea, but probably not as excitiing as Stuart or Easterross hope!’
130 - I didn’t, but Mike please delete the link if its a problem.
Its just soldiers.
******WARNING********
127 130
I’ve got Kaspersky and there’s no problem but the link flashed up an automatic ’scan’ this is a hoax
Good Morning Strictly Come Dancing With Nick Palmer Voters Worldwide.
Meanwhile …. Pedant Point …. Stewart D @ 94 …. “As you know, I am a big fan of both PB and UK Polling Report, but I must admit that Anthony’s recent disinterest in Scottish polling (and especially in keeping his database of polls up to date) has been a huge disappointment.”
Me thinks you mean “uninterested” not “disinterested” , the latter meaning impartial, which we would of course expect of Anthony Wells !!
“MacAskill giving a good fist of himself now that he’s into the questions. Pretty desperate stuff from SeanT at the start of the thread trying to spin a UK-wide poll - which frankly I was astonished showed more than a third in favour of MacAskill’s decision - as some kind of disaster for the SNP. Scots would have been 9% of the respondents of that poll - let’s wait to see the first full-scale Scottish poll. I haven’t got a clue what it will show and neither has Sean, but I do know what my gut feeling suggests.
by Red Meteor August 24th, 2009 at 3:17 pm”
Funnily enough I DID have a clue what the Scottish people thought, and Red Meteor didn’t. Which is why he lost our bet.
Red Meteor, can I have my five English pahnds please, there’s a good man.
Can I suggest that from henceforth, those of use who can scarcely bear to say or type the word “Labour” refer to the party, pace that giant Sion Simon, as “The Young Princes”?
Eg new poll -
Conservative 53%
BNP 18%
Young Princes 16%
LibDhimm - 14%
and so on.
“TYP” is OK too, for short.
127, 120, 135. Quarantine for tim until he scrubs all his bookmarks with carbolic!
133 More than one in seven of your supporters walking away is noteworthy in my book. If the Tories went down in a poll to say 35%, and Labour up to 32%, there would be uproar on here…
138 Young Princes –> “Towered”….
129 - If I’ve used Baxter’s regional predictor properly, your hypothetical shares would indicate a princely 2 SNP gains from Labour (Dundee West, Ochil & South Perthshire), 3 Conservative gains from Labour (Edinburgh South, Stirling, Dumfries & Galloway) and no other seat changes.
131 — Yes, it is sometimes scary, even on a small moto. I’ve been training in small country roads, until I hit the road big… and entered a big city. (I learned the counter-steering technique from youtube videos. I knew nothing about bike!)
Holy crap, I was feeling small when entering Bangkok… And those massive winds after a huge truck passes you full speed ahead on the highways! And those punctual pot-holes that makes you jump and might as well break your bike! And those crazy cows sleeping in the middle of the road without any warnings in the night! And those smalll kids suddenly running across the streets when you’re flying at 90 km/h! And those brown cops barking in an unknown language until you slip them 100 baht! Scary but fun as hell!
129: Yeah, but Scottish politics does not work smooth and baxter like…
102. Easterross - “The Labour poll number is not good. After 2 and a half years of Alex Salmond, Scottish Labour should have been ahead of the SNP. I suspect it will ultimately poll at around 30% if it is lucky at the GE.”
Spot on.
What many observers (especially non-Scottish observers) seem to forget is that Alex Salmond’s govt is bang in the middle of MID-TERM!! Normally, nearly all governments dip mid-term, and the main Opposition party (ie. Labour) ought to be well ahead if they aspire to toppling the govt at the next election.
UK-wide the Labour Party are tearing their hair out over the appallingly weak leadership provided by Gordon Brown. However, the Scottish labour Party are in an even worse state over the totally incompetent Iain Gray.
(Sorry I am replying in little bits. i am at work and cannot follow this thread as thoroughly as I would like.)
132
Stuart,with less than a third of voters in Scotland now wanting independence,will the planned referendum next year will be scrapped?
144 - I would not suggest otherwise. Still interesting though. What as an Englishman I have no great feel for is how tactical voting will work in Scotland and who at the moment is seen as the baddest bad guy. In England, Labour are going to get stuffed everywhere. Is the same true in Scotland or do the Conservatives remain the chief villains?
“Post show, the politics chat continued and I was delighted that a straw poll of 7 people showed that all 7 thought Kenny MacAskill made the right decision this week and that I can assure you is from a distinctly non-SNP population. Six of the seven may have thought the delivery was woeful but still, it was nice to see real people make a mockery of headlines
by Red meteor”
Red Meteor, can I have my five English nicker please, there’s a good sport.
139 - Al Jazeera had so many issues with that story I’m surprised the station didn’t blow up.
126. SeanT
Err… Martin Hannan is a journalist who writes for the Johnston Press group (Scotsman, Evening News, SoS - hardly SNP-papers!!) and the New Statesman (also decidedly anti-SNP). I can find no evidence that Martin Hannan is a “Scottish Nit”.
Can you?
Nope, I didn’t think so.
SeanT, Cocky as evah!
Can someone, anyone, please find that succulently pompous comment from Stuart Dickson, where he said that David Cameron - by having the temerity to oppose an SNP decision - the release of the mass murderer - “has proved he is not fit to be prime minister”.
I think the Scottish Nits need to see quite how asinine and absurd their posturing has been - they need to have their noses rubbed in it, so they will learn their lesson.
At least in pb terms, more damage has been done to the SNP by their hysterical, juvenile, insecure overrreaction to criticism, than by the original bad decision itself. If they’d just admitted the error and apologised, that would have been way better.
But we really need to find the Dickson comment so we can enjoy this truth at leisure. And I can’t find it.
Maybe Stuart can recite it from memory.
150. Whoops-a-daisy, I take that back!!
Honest mistake Guv!!
I’ve just been ToffeeWombled… (retires to lick wounds… )
152 - You mean this one?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/08/21/has-browns-response-been-like-the-lisbon-treaty-signing/#comment-1185181
130 My antivirus software picked it up and is scanning my pc right now.
Full v1rus scan just completed, there was 1 high risk issue which has been resolved. I’d advise others to carry out scans just to be on the safe side if they clicked that link.
150 - Into the fringes.
28% of Scots support Independence.
28% of Republicans believe Obama is not an American.
A quick scan shows there are literally dozens of comments from Scots Nits (I’ll get bored of this *joke* in a minute) implying or claiming that most Scots supported Macaskill’s decision.
Here’s just one more to prove my point, then I must go and do some real work, and figure out how to spend the five quid Red Meteor is about to send me.
“9. “Some Nats (take the applause, Red Meteor) were on here the other day happily pointing to a straw poll that supported the SNP. The size of the straw poll?
Seven.”
Whereas other Nats (take the applause, Brit Nat SeanT) were on here the other day happily drawing damning conclusions based on a poll consisting of…well, how many people?
Zero.
A sub-sample of 100 is further progress on Jeff’s straw poll of seven, but falls rather short of the full-scale poll of 1000 we need to draw firm conclusions (as Mike himself indicated). However, encouragingly this does show that 48% of respondents in Scotland were in favour of returning Megrahi to Libya under one of the two options, with 47% opposed.
Sean must indeed be dismayed that his faith in the Scottish people has been blown apart by this poll, which indicates the nation is (albeit by a slender majority) composed of terrorist-repatriating surrender monkeys.
(Except of course that Megrahi isn’t actually guilty, but let’s not allow inconvenient details get in the way of Sean’s hysteria).
by Red Meteor August 25th, 2009 at 2:43 pm”
Toodles.
154 Indeed you do. Smile happy smile at Nat brought low. Though seriously I can hardly complain when Stuart and Easterross put in all the effort if they run lines from Scotland I disagree with.
147 My view is that Labour is now very very unpopular in Scotland and that is mainly due to the UK Government and not Iain Gray (who hardly registers), but that the Tories remain untrusted just not quite as hated as before.
157. SeanT, Surely this spat with S, Dickson is boring us all.
1. Dickson is an SNP fanatic.
2. You are opposed to the SNP.
‘Nuff already.
154: Superb, well done (how do you find these things so quick?!)
I believe that comment is worthy of the full cut n paste, so it can be pickled in the whisky of derision, then served with humble pie and tatties at the next pb Burns Night Supper.
Here we go, ladydeez and gennulmen, Mister Stuart Dickson’s Famous Pronunciamento on the Great Megrahi Fandangle:
*clears throat*
“Yesterday was a pivotal day in the careers of two politicians, for they proved themselves unfit for the high offices they aspire to one day hold.
Iain Gray is unfit to hold the office of Her Majesty’s First Minister of Scotland.
David Cameron is unfit to hold the office of Her Majesty’s Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Both men have sunk into the gutter, and have no concept of the dignity and wisdom that those offices demand.
by Stuart Dickson August 21st, 2009 at 6:24 am”
Och aye. And, indeed, the Noo.
158 - I guess my question is geared towards the relatively few Labour/Tory marginals - Renfrewshire East or Edinburgh South West springing to mind. Would your average SNP or Lib Dem voter cast a tactical vote for either party or would they cast an untactical vote for their first preference? Or is there no such thing as an average SNP or Lib Dem voter? [INSERT JOKE HERE]
For five quids, you can get a 1-hour foot massage on lower suk!
159. Please, allow me to revel with tedious and disgusting glee in my triumph. That’s all I ask.
Anyway you’ll be glad to hear I HAVE to bog off and do some work. These my exaltations are at an end. For now.
Easterross I reckon that it takes 10-14 days for an issue to have its full initial effects on the polls, and then it is only the first flush as long running stories can, of course, make waves for much longer.
On that basis next week will be the best time for a poll. Doubly so as the parliamentary debate on Wednesday may make more noise than some expect.
MacAskill has gone on holiday and will only come back for the debate.
Has he gone to ground?
Certainly the story has a long way to go if only because of the Westminster connection. But it also looks as if the minister’s statement was less than surely based on proper due diligence: the police denying his claim on security, the prison doctor’s so different prognostication to that of an earlier specialist panel on the bomber’s health, the now ever more apparent rush to release Magrahi.
If the whole issue has been spun then it will not only damage trust in the SNP but doubly annoy people who might feel they have been taken in. No-one likes to be taken for a fool.
Trust in the Brown mob can hardly go any lower so the biggest impact will be north of the border.
Will the Scottish electorate look well upon a government which may have been humbugged by Libya and Brown?
if as expected and planned an snp msp confirms under parliamentary privilege that the bomber was not megrahi but someone else, whom they name, and that the uk and us governments are fully aware of this but choose not to release the information to confirm this, whilst bribing witnesses 2 mill or more to say it was megrahi then i think it might get interesting.
be sure of the facts though; no wonder brown is crapping himself and wants it to go away. anything he says contradicts what has happened.
timing on this is everything, and if he is innocent and shown to be the snp will annihilate the opposition. so media sources need to be fully aware. this will be a doozy.
I somehow think the Nat ‘delight’ in ‘only’ dropping 6 points is a spin worthy of Comical Ali.
Is this a misprint? 91 people? Now I know it was the first year, but 91, surely they got more than that to do it, no?
“The first results of the new diploma qualification, however, were disappointing. At the higher level, designed to be equivalent to an A level, none of the 91 students who took it got an A* or A grade, more than half were awarded a C and over a quarter failed.
The diploma qualification is designed to bridge the gap between academic and vocational skills. Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, wants it to replace A levels but universities have concerns that it is not sufficiently rigorous.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/school_league_tables/article6811898.ece
166 Merely a flesh wound
169 So that’s about one large sixth form? Or maybe half a dozen pupils across several of them?
Mortgage Rescue Scheme anyone? I gather that this is being relaunched next week too - because of course it has been an overwhelming success…
Just to stir things up a bit, Gerry Adams has wrote a piece on that yank politician who didn’t support the IRA:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/aug/27/ted-kennedy-northern-ireland
167 “Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, wants it”
and consequently, no-one else does…
165. - redcliffe62 - “if as expected and planned an snp msp confirms under parliamentary privilege… “
Source please?
Who, exactly, “expects” this?
Must pop out for a bit. Hope you are all having fun.
Toodle pip!
re 6 Patrick you obviously know nothing about margin of error then.
*** Betting Post ***Paddy Power have put up what I think is a new market on Gordon Brown’s Approval Rating in September:
Gordon Brown September Approval Rating
Applies to the first poll with an end date in September published in the Sunday Times. Applies to the Yes side of the question Are you satisfied or disatisfied with Gordon Brown as Prime Minister for YouGov/Sunday Times.
21% - 25% 11/8
26% - 30% 3/1
16% - 20% 4/1
Over 30% 9/2
11% - 15% 6/1
10% or Less 8/1
According to UK Polling, the last few monthly polls have shown the following percentages for Yes:
14/08/09 26%
17/07/09 24%
12/06/09 23%
08/05/09 25%
04/04/09 41% [Amazing to recall this!]
13/03/09 36%
13/02/09 31%
As you can see, it has been pretty stable for the last few months at around 25%. Given this, the 11/8 on 21%-25%, with a small saver on 26%-30% to cover your stake, looks very good value IMO.
———————-
Also PP have restored the Irish Referendum percentage market. ‘Less than 50%’ now matches their odds on ‘No’ winning!
170 - Indeed, he never met Adams until after the IRA ceasefire and he was “firmly against political violence”. The b@stard.
174 - “Also PP have restored the Irish Referendum percentage market. ‘Less than 50%’ now matches their odds on ‘No’ winning!”
Phew - I was slightly paranoid there may be something in the wording that actually differentiated the bets but it seems from this that there definitely wasnt.
Another Scottish business doing well
STV profits fall 84%
Scotland’s ITV licensee hit by ad slump as profits tumble from £4.5m to £700,000
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/aug/27/stv-profits-fall-84-per-cent
176. Surely there are three voting options:
Yes
No
That would be an ecumenical matter
Hence the difference in the odds!
Terry Christian leading the way in Manchester Evening News voodoo poll for Mayor:
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/1133710_karney_heads_race_for_mayor
Completely off topic, but I feel that I must put in a shameless plug for Henry G Manson’s betting service. For a fixed monthly fee (currently £20), Henry gives access to his tips and while past performance is no guide to the future, his past performance speaks for itself.
Henry’s tips are always concisely presented but with full reasoning and are usually same-day bets. He is taking new subscribers and anyone wanting access to his tips for the US Open, about which he is sounding confident, should email him at henrygmanson at the dot com suffix of hotmail (with the obvious adjustments made to make that into a normal looking email address).
[167] - Is this a misprint? 91 people? Now I know it was the first year, but 91, surely they got more than that to do it, no?
Well, that’s 91 people at the higher level - the Times don’t tell us how many countless thousands no doubt took the diploma at the other levels…
I can’t find the statistics on the DCSF website. Not even for the GCSEs, for which there doesn’t appear to even be a press release.
Paging Martin Day, Paging Martin Day
Is this Shagger dog?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zflwJ4Tu-N0
98 Christina - Hmm ….. that’s interesting, especially coming from Matthew Parris who is very well connected and is right far more often than he’s wrong.
I remain doubtful however and New Year’s Day seems the most unlikely time for Brown to go, but you’ll be a big star on PB if proved right and I’ll be a big star with my bank manager should he go in Sept-Oct 2009! Sadly, I’m not holding my breath.
178- Brilliant Ted reference
165- that’s an extraordinary statement to make, do you have any evidence for that?
179 With Karney on 3%. And with Bez on 13%!!
Gotta love Mancs. In a world of their own…
183- I am convinced he will stick it out to the GE and then quit as leader as soon as he possibly can. He’s gone through too much to quit now and it is too late for the PLP to force him out. The only way I can possibly see him going is if he is caught in Downing Street with his underpants on his head, two pencils up his nose and saying “bewibble”.
186, surely ‘wibble’?
186 “The only way I can possibly see him going is if he is caught in Downing Street with his underpants on his head, two pencils up his nose and saying “bewibble”.”
* Mandelson scribbling that one down *
183 Have there been any sightings of Gordon on his voluntary work these last few weeks?
Re Brown going.
Do we think he might do a Jose Maria Aznar?
He announces he wont contest the next election, but remains PM until then, allowing the party to choose someone else, to fight the election.
187- perhaps, it’s been a long time since I’ve seen it. As thanks for that correction perhaps you’d like a cup of my special coffee…
Pfp — thou of little faith!
183.PfP, and if I am wrong, I will have egg all over my face.
But I don’t plan on emigrating from PB.com to spare my blushes.
190- I think that’s what Blair did, it just made him a dead duck leader, everyone was busy grovelling to the next leader, Brown. Of course this wouldn’t be a problem for Brown, his has been a leadership of the living dead duck for about 2 years now.
191, no thanks. I don’t want any liquorice allsorts, either
I usually listen to the Blackadder audiotapes when exercising (which I’ve been slacking off lately), so I know the scripts fairly well. Except season 1, which they omitted from the boxset.
195- I’ve got the audio version of series one on CD. The first episode of the first series is probably my favourite, except for Goodbyeee.
In order to win the GE Gordon Brown would have to come up with a plan as cunning as a fox, which has just been made professor of cunning at Oxford University.
[167,181,diplomas] - The Guardian say there were 213 awards in total of diplomas, and there is some explanation that one reason for the low number is that is only those students who completed the diploma in one year at 17.
Presumably there will be more who will have done it over two years by next summer [though there should be figures of the numbers of students who have started a diploma somewhere].
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2009/aug/27/gcse-results-pass-rate-up
180. antifrank. I am plesed to hear HenryG’s tipping service is doing well. What is the current percentage profit on recommended stakes?
An analysis on the lines of:
30 recommended bets so far, 60 points staked, 20 points net profit, percentage profit on recommended stakes 20/60 = 33%, would be very useful.
196, I considered getting the CDs but they’re a bit expensive. The first series had some good moments (Blackadder killing Richard III particularly) but the Blackadder character wasn’t great.
Brown is about as cunning as stinky little peasant called Baldrick though. Even Captain/Chancellor Darling is far more cunning.
193 Christina - Ensure you get in a good supply over the Christmas holiday …. eggs that is!
Is it just me, or does it seem that every time New Labour comes up with a whizzo new scheme to introduce “A Bright Idea” (diplomas, home security schemes, war in Iraq, voting in Helmand), everybody concerned votes with their feet that it was actually “A Sh1te Idea”…
New Labour = “Bright” Ideas That Nobody Wants
98. Regarding the Times article by Matthew Parris - ‘Gordon Brown has resigned. Did you know?’
Oh Lord, please, please, please let Chris and Matthew be right on this.
Brown going, and the Labour Party being led into a general election by an Englishman (or even better an Englishwoman) for the first time since Michael Foot, would be Deliverance for the Scottish National Party.
BBC - Tough cure for China web addicts
193. Christina. We won’t be able to see your blushes if you have egg on your face!
199- to be fair they are facing a crises, in fact if you’ve got a moment, a 12 story crisis with a magnificent marble reception and a big sign saying “this is a crisis”.
Do we know if the independence question was a “straight fist” ie Yes/No, or a woolly Yes/More powers/Maybe/No/Never multiple choice crusade so beloved by the likes of the Daily Mail, Telegraph etc? My suspicion is that it is the latter, in which case it doesn’t really tell us much.
But the SNP should be quite pleased with their standing so far, after such a difficult week - especially with regard to the Holyrood voting intention where they still lead. After all, the dynamic will be completely changed after next year and the likelihood of a Tory UK Government in power, but rejected by the electorate in Scotland.
This doesn’t seem to have gone the way some of the anti-SNPers the other day would have liked. And that is goooooood
Exam results improve.
No news there as we know that folowing the rise in immigrants and their children we expect that.
(Imagine if anyone had listened to Powell!)
One interesting stat is that boys have overtaken girls in maths.
206- if you are pleased with a 6% fall in support, you have very low standards
104. tim - “although I’m prepared to accept New Years Eve”
Oh Goody!
Gordon Brown resigning on Alex Salmond’s birthday. How appropriate!!
200.Peter,
I admit it, I have been so convinced he wouldn’t fight the next GE, I virtually get down on hands and knees to check under the bed for crumbs every time there is a story that might indicate him going. I put it down to the terrifying thought of Brown being beamed into our living rooms every day for four weeks during the GE campaign.
202. “would be Deliverance for the Scottish National Party.”
Alex Salmond taken out into the woods and molested by yokels with banjos?
209 - Does Alex claim expenses for food in London on his Birthday?
210 - But Christina, imagine the kind of things he will be doing when beamed into our living rooms?
- Punching a member of the public in the mouth
- Breaking down in tears when under questioning
- Impaling himself on an autocue
- Being run over by his own battlebus
etc
The entertainment possibilities are endless
Those punters who are confident Brown will not lead Labour at the next general Election should avail themselves of the 6/4 William Hill are laying on this outcome. Those who feel sure that he will, should take the 4/6 on this outcome offered by vc.bet.
Quite remarkable that the Bookies rate the chances of Brown leading Labour at the next GE at only 60%. I would guess that Mike would agree with that assessment too?
206. A 6% fall “intra-poll” directly after a particularly unique set of circumstances? Sorry, but I’m not really moved…..
Blackadder, re-imagined for our times:
Brown: I haven’t got it.
Mandelson: What?
Brown: I spent it.
Mandelson: You spent it? What could you possibly spend £400 000 on?
[Mandelson notices the massive turnip on the table]
Mandelson: Oh, no… oh God, don’t tell me.
Brown: My dream turnip.
Mandelson: Brown, how did you manage to find a turnip that cost £400 000?
Brown: Well, I had to haggle.
[Mandelson slams the turnip over Brown's head]
Mandelson: This is the worst moment of my entire life. I’ve spent my last penny on a cat-skin windcheater, I’ve just broken a priceless turnip…
[there is a knock at the door followed by shouting]
Mandelson: …and now I’m about to be viciously slaughtered by a naked Tunisian sock merchant. Well, all I can say, Brown, is that’s the last time I dabble in politics…
208.
Bob, I think that if Unionists were really, really honest with themselves, they would admit that they are a bit disappointed with this YouGov poll.
I do not expect any of you to admit it publicly on PB (precedent speaks against Unionist candidness), but at least have the honesty to admit the truth in your own mind.
OT Obama to do Ted Kennedy’s eulogy. Wonder if this will get uninterrupted coverage on the BBC?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1209107/Ted-Kennedy-Heartbroken-Obama-leads-tributes-greatest-U-S-senator-time.html?ITO=1490
206 - from recollection it was a straight yes / no
189.
He was spotted serving cold porridge to tramps on the streets of Fife - when asked why the porridge was cold he repied “its happening all over the world”.
211. AndrewG - “Alex Salmond taken out into the woods and molested by yokels with banjos?”
Err… no… that was not quite what I had in mind.
217 How many on this site are ‘Unionists’?
I can’t say I’ve noticed anyone with strong feelings about it, just a few like SeanT who think independence won’t happen but aren’t that fagged either way.
212 only following the example of Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, Geoff Hoon, David Miliband, Margaret Beckett, Paul Murphy, John Prescott and in past times Peter Mandelson.
198 - I don’t always take Henry’s tennis tips (sometimes I don’t have the time to place the bets and sometimes I look at them and decide that they’re not for me), nor do I place even stakes. Set against that, I don’t always manage to get the odds that Henry has secured. I have been lucky in the ones that I have not taken, so my own experience has probably been unusually good. I am well in profit since Henry started his paying service in mid July, but when I have a spare moment I shall see what I can do to provide useful analysis that is less anecdotal.
220.
- “… when asked why the porridge was cold he repied…”
… it was cooked up in America.
From Guido via MarkReckons
“When Enoch Powell died Tony Blair led the tributes:
“He was one of the great figures of 20th-century British politics, gifted with a brilliant mind.”
February 9, 1998″
217 - I’d imagine “Unionists” are delighted with a 28% support for Independence.
217 - “I do not expect any of you to admit it publicly on PB (precedent speaks against Unionist candidness), but at least have the honesty to admit the truth in your own mind.”
Physician, heal thyself.
Just been keeping a lazy eye on the F1 title markets. Brawn and Button are both drifting upwards slightly. I’m most green on Barrichello, and contemplating putting another £2 on him at 12.5. Over 11/1 for the chap ranked second when the 3rd and 4th placed chaps (one of whom is an inferior driver to Barrichello and the other of whom has a barely 50% race finishing rate) are significantly shorter seems odd to me.
Then again, an 18 point lead with 6 races only requires a couple of good performances from Button. I’m beginning to think he just doesn’t have it in him though.
[206] - This doesn’t seem to have gone the way some of the anti-SNPers the other day would have liked.
Er, I don’t recall any specific predictions from anti-SNPers, though some did suspect/hope for a fall in SNP support. Um, which we’ve seen.
There was one hypothesis yesterday that the SNP would see an increase in support. It’s nice to test hypotheses with data. As far as I can see that’s the only prediction that has failed.
224. antifrank. Thanks for that.
217- yes Stuart I am disappointed with the poll, heart broken in fact. I was particularly devastated by the 6% fall in support for the SNP while the 2% rise in support for the Scots Tories left me wailing and nashing my teeth, begging the Lord for forgiveness. I was almost in tears over the 28% who support independence.I have now donned sack cloth and ashes and am beating my chest while wailing “woe is me, woe is me! If only I had listened to the wisdom of the cyber nats!”. My colleagues are looking at me a little askance, but I am past caring.
By the time that I noticed that this was a Yougov poll and therfore reliable, I was rolling on the ground crying and tearing my own hair out.
Yes Stuart. I was indeed dissapointed.
Morning all!
196. I have the Comic Relief book with all the four series scripts in one volume!
“As cunning as a fox who’s just been appointed Professor of Cunning at Oxford?”
In other news, in case anyone missed my bad joke from a couple of days ago:
Q. What’s Libya’s only native dog-breed?
A. The Abdel-Basset Hound!
I’ll get me coat….
214 - That 4/6 with vc.bet looks like a steal to me. To oust Gordon Brown, Peter Mandelson must be persuaded or overcome. Since Peter Mandelson holds more power than he could ever hope to hold under any successor to Gordon Brown, I don’t see him being persuaded and I don’t see anyone else strong enough to take him on, with the possible exception of Alistair Darling who has shown no signs to date of wanting to do so.
If I am right about this, Gordon Brown would only step down before the next election if he voluntarily resigned. I rate that no higher than 1 in 6.
233- Yes I have the same book
174 Richard - a good spot by you, Brown’s approval rating looks very likely to be between 21%-30%, based on recent polls.
I’ve followed you in on this one. To use the 26%-30% band at 3/1 purely as a saver, one needs to invest 25% of the total wager on this band and the remaining 75% on the 21%-25% band at 11/8 to return either 0.78/1 or break-even provided one or the other band proves correct.
Those of a nervous disposition might wish to equalise the prospective return on these two bands by wagering 62.7% on 21%-25% and the remaining 37.3% on 26%-30% to return a rather more modest return of 0.48/1, should either band prove correct.
Not one to bet the farm on, but an intersting little bet.
234. antifrank. It does look great value. I keep wondering though…?
I doubt vc.bet would allow a chunky bet anyway.
219. From recollection? I thought the data sheets hadn’t yet been published? From my own recollection any polls commissioned by the Daily Mail in the past have not tested independence in the straight YES/NO bracket. I’m happy to be proven wrong, but at the same time I’ll wait and see, but again there is no trend here, so we can’t make much from it.
180. Many thanks Antifrank. Very kind. Looking forward to the US Open.
For what it is worth my view is there is indeed a swing from the SNP to Labour in Scotland. Why? It’s the economy stupid.
Not true to say in Scotland this will all be laid at UK Labour doors. In the unionised public sector the cuts now beginning are being blamed on the SNP who are making (or percieved to be making) budget choices at both Holyrood or the council levels - aka Glenrothes. There is talk of a five year wage freeze which Unison has really worked people up about. Recent job losses in the unionised Scottish private sector have also been greater than in England. The SNP call themselves a “government”, so its simply starting to back-fire - its not anti-SNP per se, its just anti government.
This is why I think the SNP are making such an effort over The Kilmarnock whisky jobs. They (or rather Swinney) seem to be handling this rather impressively, and actually personally I fully support them in this. Interesting to see whether this will have an impact on Glasgow NE (either way depending on final outcome) but think job insecurity etc. plays much higher than the Libya issue. So watch the Kilmarnock outcome is my tip for Glasgow NE.
Just remember the SNP have 15,000 members (with only a token sub) yearning to be free out of a population of 5 million, so clearly a hard desire for independence is not the issue with most of us. The fact that most of the SNP membership seem to spend a lot of time posting on blogs can sometimes give a rather misleading impression?
239, on that front I’d add that it’s quite helpful when you include a minimum odds to be taken snippet after citing the odds of a specific bookmaker to take. As I only have accounts with Betfair and Ladbrokes it’s quite handy.
22 If Corzine did manage to beat Christie it would be a boost for Obama. Since Carter every party which lost the presidency the previous year has gone on to win the Virginia and New Jersey governorships the subsequent year.
232. Bob
Good. Thank for that. Glad we cleared that up.
237. I think the 4/6 is value, and certainly if Brown is still standing after party conference. I’m still a believer that there’s a fair chance he won’t be there, but 4/6 is much, much too big. Sadly the swines at Chandlers shut my account last month.
226 - None of which involves anything like citing him as a political hero or influence. Strikes me as a the typical tribute you give to somebody who you don’t like - it sounds magnanimous but all it says is 1. He was a big political figure in his day - undeniably true; and 2. He was clever - again clearly true for a gifted scholar of Classics.
Mind you, I think the new Hannan row is rather whipped up (although it again shows Hannan never got beyond being a bar room bore at the Oxford Union and shouldn’t be let loose on serious politics - much better leave him as an MEP).
Powell was essentially a man with a lot of ahead of its time thinking about economic matters (which Hannan admires) and some of its time thinking on other issues. But he decided he needed something else to make him the standard bearer of the right and picked on race. It was a disastrous miscalculation. I honestly doubt race was ever high on his list of concerns, but vanity prevented him from ever backing down, even years later, and he became a somewhat tragic figure.
Incidentally, reading Blair’s tribute reminded me of that great Not The Nine O’Clock News sketch where two politicians are ripping chunks out of each other in a TV studio. One drops dead in the middle of the slagging match leading to a dramatic change of tone - “[shouting] This is the kind of man who… [opponent drops dead]… who will be sadly missed - a great Parliamentarian and close personal friend…”
122. Will this t shirt be McKaskill’s shirt of choice?
http://www.redmolotov.com/catalogue/tshirts/political-tshirts/gadaffi.html
Now that the dust has settled, only somewhat and perhaps only for now, over the return of the Lockerbie bomber, we can see some things with a little more clarity — but much remains murky in the extreme.
For a start, despite the speculation, nobody has produced clinching evidence to show the British government did a backstairs’ deal with Colonel Gaddafi for the bomber’s return. On the other hand, it is now quite clear that London was anxious to normalise relations with Tripoli as quickly and as best it could — and that Gaddafi had made it clear that could not happen unless the bomber was sent back.
As a result, attention has moved away from the Scottish government’s decision to free the bomber on controversial “compassionate” grounds to London and the role the British government might have played in facilitating the Lockerbie bomber’s release. And here we enter very murky waters indeed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitics/andrewneil/2009/08/very_murky_waters_indeed.html
241. I’m glad. It was a member of the service that suggested that move.
180,224 I agree, Henry’s commentaries on each bet are interesting, logical and well-argued pieces.
What I also like about his betting strategy is that he is always looking for the odd nuance which might tip the odds in balance in favour of the Punter, using for example, set betting, handicaps, etc. He also expresses his own opinion on what he considers to be the true value of each bet.
Unlike some in this field, he follows up on every bet, including losers and issues regular reviews of his performance. What he doesn’t do is to include any staking plan, believing that’s up to each punter to decide.
He had a great Wimbledon, so a similar outcome at the US open would be great.
214 StJohn (and Antifrank)
Interesting.
A few weeks back I conferred with that fount of betting wisdom, HenryG, and we estimated the chances of AJ replacing GB early next year at about 33%. That’s consistent with the odds you quote and an indication that there is value in some of the markets, notably Betfair’s Leader Exit.
Have I missed tim bigging this one up? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8223664.stm
244 Ah, I see the great man is here.
I’ll shut up.
244. Henry. You’ve persuaded me. I’m on!
Are you able to provide the analysis of your tipping service I suggested at 198?
Good to see the punters out in force today!
249. I’ve been thinking of the staking plan Peter from Putney. Maybe something for 2010!
250. I think it’s about 20-25% that Johnson will replace him now Peter the Punter.
253. I’ll send it to you at the weekend when I do my next review to members St John.
stjohn, i was able to get CAD 1000 (about) at an average of 3.5 on betfair that B will go in the last month!
ptp, r u still going to Montreal?
Further to my post 240.
Should have added that Scotland is even less homogeneous politically than England, so talk of a national Scottish swing is somewhat misleading.
I think the swing from SNP to Labour is largely a Glasgow and Fife swing. In Edinburgh I think the Tories will do rather well because of the bank isssue, and the poor performance of the Lib/SNP coalition on the Council. I think the Tories will also do very well in the Borders because there is very strong feelings against wind farms which are seen as SNP/Lib impositions.
sorry, i meant post 243
The Not The Nine O’Clock News Moseley song had a cut and paste from the newspaper obituries after Moseley’s death.
“Genuinely eager to champion the unemployed and other underdogs… dynamic and handsome, popular… gifted and a natural leader”
CAPTION ADDS FOOTNOTE ‘The Guardian’
STEPHENSON
“Brilliant man in the Commons… compassionate and humane… a man of genuine courage and inspiring leadership”
CAPTION ADDS FOOTNOTE ‘- The Daily Telegraph’
SMITH
“Thought to have been the most handsome and gifted British political leader of the twentieth century …brilliant debater, gifted, lucid and compassionate…”
217. Spot on Stuart.
It is only one poll but all the ‘howling at the moon’ the other day about how this was a “disaster” of epic proportions for the SNP, that they’d take a “huge” hit and that the Tories were going to romp to victory on the back of this seems well out of kilter. I mean, Auntie Annabel’s soft lilting tones proferring suggestions about Megrahi’s release to a nice house in upmarket Newton Mearns or first class medical care in a hospice somewhere in Scotland, lavishing public money on such an outcome, would seal the deal for the Scottish Tories.
Er….no.
255. Off for lunch with a fairly well connected non-aligned Labour MP now and will put my estimation of Brown’s survival chances to him and feedback later if you like.
254 - I don’t think its a big story.
The fact that Hannan lacks judgement isn’t news.
The thing I do find strange is that some on the right of the party wish to pretend Powell was campaigning on immigration and numbers rather than race.
As he never had anything to say about white immingrants and was operating at a time of net emigration then this is unsustainable.
255. HenryG. If we take the mid point of that range, then that implies a 77.5% chance of Brown leading Labour at the next General Election. vc.bet’s odds of 4/6 = 60% chance. So the “St.John Value” (SV) in this bet is 77.5/60 = 1.29 or 29%.
Depending on the time frame for the bet, I think this is the best way of analysing value. I like a bet to be at least 25% SV.
243. Mark, Edinburgh - “the SNP have 15,000 members (with only a token sub)”
Mark, what makes you think that the SNP membership fee is only “token”? As far as I am aware it is much the same cost as any other political party.
If you have info to the contrary, then I’m sure we’d love to hear it!
266. But could you see any of the Labour MPs crossing the world to fight an odious dicatorship?
hyufd, i think that Christie will lose coze he basically sucks. Corzine will win by default. Nothing 4 Obama to brag about!
261 Philippe
Yes, but we don’t have fixed date. It’s sure to be this autumn some time and I reckon we’ll be there a couple of weeks, so should be plenty of time to meet up.
Do I have your email address? Might be as well to swap now, in case I forget. arklebar@talktalk.net
A bientot.
A Tip here!
Gordon looks for someone to fill his place:
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/2009/08/gordon-looks-for-ed-balls-to-fill.html
264 - 6% is a pretty big hit to take, Grandstander, with the bulk going to your main opponent.
Just suppose, for example, the next ICM poll were to show Tories 35 (-6), Labour 31 (+5), LD 21 (+2). The first reaction would probably be “rogue” from many here. But, if corroborated by further polls, it would very much be game on.
I don’t really think this “minor issue” schtick from you and Stuart is at all credible. It’s recoverable of course, and the SNP still has a lead. But it’s undeniably a big hit.
259. Thanks Henry and good luck!
260. Philippe. 3.5 = 28.6%. If we assume Henry G’s assessment is correct that the chance of Brown being replaced is 22.%, then the SV of your bet is 28.6/22.5 = 1.27 or 27% SV.
So yes, that’s a play. And taking the 3.5 with Betfair and the 4/6 with vc.bet, to appropriate stakes, ensures a profit.
268 - What percentage of SNP voters do you think are against independence?
stjohn, why dont u bet on the Leader market on betfair? Last time I checked I got something around 3.3 on Brown not leading L on the next GE!
273. Sir Norfolk Passmore - “… this “minor issue” schtick…”
Err… in all fairness Sir Norfolk, I don’t think any of us said that this was a “minor issue”.
ok!
It shows Labour are desperate when the only ammunition they have left is raising the spectre of Enoch Powell and the Nasty Tories every time someone mentions his name.
Despite Cameron’s insistance on disassociating himself from anyone agreeing with the ROB speech (which he has to do to reposition), I would be willing to suggest that there’s a sizeable chunk of opinion out there who broadly agree with the argument Powell put forward, even if they disagree with the tone and the way in which it was articulated.
#268
Stuart, the information you (if not others) would love to hear;
Min annual sub for a standard member according to the parties’ respective sites;
SNP £12, Tories £25, Labour £38
Can’t be bothered to look up the Lib Dems, UKIP or the Greens. Why don’t you if you are so interested?
Personally I wouldn’t waste my money on any of them, and nor do most Scots it appears. I think the Tories have the biggest “mass membership” in Scotland at all of 19,000 don’t they?
As you cybernats always say the Tories have no mandate in Scotland and are deeply unpopular (true), They just have about 20% more members than the SNP at double the sub. (Probably do a better cheese and wine?).
273. I never said it was a “minor issue”. I said that this poll was conducted in the midst of the most unique set of political circumstances that I think any of us in Scotland can remember. Where the bile and vitriol thrown at the Scottish Government has been unprecedented over a decision that has split opinion down the middle.
There is one hoped for consequence of Megrahi’s release and demise, that we can find out what really happened and who really was responsible. I am sure that there are people in power who know more than they have said, all it needs is for it to be in someone’s interest to release this information.
266 “The thing I do find strange is that some on the right of the party wish to pretend Powell was campaigning on immigration and numbers rather than race…As he never had anything to say about white immingrants and was operating at a time of net emigration then this is unsustainable.”
From my Boys Bumper Book of Enoch Powell (transcript of BBC debate, 9/9/69):
“Trevor Huddleston: …and what I want to know from you, really, is why the presence of a coloured immigrant group is objectionable when the presence of a non-coloured immigrant is not objectionable.
Powell: Oh no! Oh no! on the contrary, I have often said that if we saw the prospect of five million Germans in this country by the end of the century, the risks of disruption and violence would probably be greater … the reason why the whole debate in this country on immigration is related to coloured immigration is because there has been no net immigration of white Comonwealth citizens, and there could be no migration of aliens. This is merely an automatic consequence of the facts of the case; it is not because there is anything different, because there is anything necessarily more dangerous, about the alienness of a community from Asia, than about the alienness of a community from Turkey or from Germany, that we discuss this inevitably in terms of colour. It is because it is that problem.”
I note GCSE results have risen again. This is of course because the standard of teaching and the ability of students magically rises year on year.
vc bet now 4/7 Brown leads Labour at next GE. 4/7 = 63.63%. Based on henryG’s assessment the 4/7 represents 77.5/63.63 = 1.22 or 22% SV.
Of course if antifrank is right that there is only a 1/6 chance of Brown not leading Labour at the next GE then there is a 5/6 or 83.33 % chance that he will. Then the 4/7 is still good SV. 83.33/63.63 = 1.31 or 31% SV.
SV = Punters % assessment of outcome/ Bookies % odds available on outcome.
279 - I doubt whether there are that many anymore.
Only the fringe nuts believe Alesha Dixon should be repatriated.
And I suspect most people fancy a bit of post Powellite race mixing on the quiet, even in the Monday Club.
284 - No.
Its because there are more immigrants whose children do better.
248 - Powell was vastly overrated as a speaker, his oratory often obscured his message by being needlessly florid (maybe on purpose) and his vocal delivery was, even for the time, pedestrian.
I’m not sure where this myth grew, I wouldn’t doubt his intellect but intelligence doesn’t automatically transfer itself into verbal communication.
287.
Once again I find myself agreeing with Tim, twice in two days.
He is right on this, its because they have in most cases better values on the issue if education.
Come on Tim … Vote conservative you know you want too. Just think how lonely and isolated you are going to feel when NewLabour have been incinerated next year !
280. “Min annual sub for a standard member according to the parties’ respective sites;
SNP £12, Tories £25, Labour £38
Very interesting Mark!
I can remember years ago suggesting that we raised our memb fee. It was only about £12 then too, and that was about 10 years ago!!
(Note: I personally pay a lot more than that if you add up my monthly Direct Debit. I assume that I am not alone.)
283 - Around 10 Million Brits have Irish ancestry, and at the time Powell was speakin Irish immigrants were by far the biggest group of people who had moved to Britain.
His quote is nonsense.
Notice also how he groups all “coloured immigration” together but singles out one “white” country Germany as a comparison.
Powell used race, the idea it was about numbers is a nonsense.
284. Quite.
Balls was quick out of the gate with this
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/aug/26/ed-balls-education-policy-gcse?showallcomments=true
The comments are devastating.
A surprisingly reasonable analysis from Michael White here
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/aug/27/balls-gcse-results-michael-white
and an expectedly brutal fisking here
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5290363/exam-result-shock-balls-fails.thtml
Mark, I cannot see this £12 figure anywhere on the Memb Appl Form:
https://my.snp.org/join
Minimum monthly payment i 3 quid, which is £36 per year
The SNP are struggling as their plans for a local income tax have greatly worried middle class voters. In addition, the 33% of Scots who live alone would lose their 25% council tax discount under SNP plans - a large amount of money to a large slice of the electorate.
Sub 30% is bad news for the SNP. If replicated in a GE they would make minimal gains…
Christie now comparing Corzine to Gordon Gekko in dramatic TV ad!
291 - sorry Tim, it was just offered as evidence that your assertion that “he never had anything to say about white immingrants” was incorrect.
[290] - Note that, for example, membership of the National Trust is £47.50 per year.
I think it would be fair to say that the minimum membership rates for all political parties were deliberately set at a token level.
287 That argument was debunked the other day.
291 What does that prove? Most of us can trace ancestors from different parts of the British Isles. That doesnt alter the fact that net immigration on a large scale from New Commonwealth countries was unprecedented in the Sixties.
Some good news on the soldiering front:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6098074/Kidnapped-British-soldier-leaps-off-balcony-to-freedom.html
And of course, several thousand immigrants from Ireland or Australia to the UK are far more likely to assimilate with the pre-existing population than the same number from S*malia or the North West frontier.
298 - Why group the New Commonwealth countries together?
Of course we know why Powell did it, but why are you.
162. Sean, You should reflect now and again, you are not half as funny as you think you are. You do become very tedious.
291. A goodly proportion of those with Irish forebears living here in the ’60s were not descended from immigrants since many would simply have been moving from one part (southern Ireland pre-Independence) to another (the mainland) of the country.
300 - Perhaps, but Kenyan Asians who Powell used as a launching pad for his race campaign as likely to be much more successful economically and educationally that immigrants from the Republic of Ireland.
Who should Powellite want to repatriate?
272.A Tip here!
Gordon looks for someone to fill his place:
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/2009/08/gordon-looks-for-ed-balls-to-fill.html
293: Click on the annual fee rather than the monthly one…
163. Antifrank, That may well be a key factor in this election , re whether the non Tory voters in these marginals can bring themselves to vote Tory to get Labour out. One thing for sure is it will be hard to call what is going to happen.
297. Timothy (zebra-liover)
Membership of the Scottish National Trust is only £36 per year:
http://www.nts.org.uk/Join/
308, why’s the English one higher?
Because we’re worth it
306. Slackbladder
Thanks! Now I see it.
Can our Scottish posters enlightenment me on something.
The SNP calls the referendum on Independence in 2010, and loses it.
Will they do an Ireland and keep having referendii until the great unwashed give the right result
Or will the SNP have to wait until a General Election/Holyrood elections where the SNP get a majority of votes/seats?
I do find Mandelson’s hysterics over Dan Hannan’s comments rather amusing.
He is becoming more and more like Donald Sutherland at the end of Bodysnatchers by the day.
The Tories should definitely keep baiting him, he is getting really snippy in his dotage.
And people still think his is a ‘brilliant’ operator.
306 Mark, from Edinburgh
Is it possible that you clicked on the prospective votes shares of the parties at the GE and that Stuart Dickson clicked on the membership fees?
305 - Martin, have you checked out the link at 185?
312: you can smell the desperation can’t you….
Sorry if I am being thick, but where does it say on the Labour memb appl form that it cost £38 per year?
http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/join
233. Timothy, We will see when we get the election results.
315 yep. Especially as he had to tie his ‘outrage’ to a reminder of the NHS battle they have already lost.
They shoot horses don’t they?
Found it:
https://secure2.labour.org.uk/uploads/5fcddb46-fa90-a194-c929-aa6ff5d000b9.pdf
300 - Sean Fear is way to the right of Dan Hannan.
Here’s Dan
For what it’s worth, I think Enoch Powell was wrong on immigration. The civil unrest that he forecast, and that many feared in 1968, didn’t materialise. Britain assimilated a large population with an ease that few countries have matched. Being an immigrant myself, I have particular cause to be grateful for Britain’s understated cosmopolitanism.
312: ‘The Tories should definitely keep baiting him, he is getting really snippy in his dotage. And people still think his is a “brilliant” operator.’
Absolutely! Mandelson now comes across as a tired old rent-a-quote and nothing like the devious manipulator of legend. He’s just Stephen Pound without the gags.
309.Maybe they have more properties to maintain?
311.For the SNP membership, holding a referendum the minute they got their hands on power was nonnegotiable, hence Salmond’s desire to kick it into the end of a first term in office. He will put on an Oscar winning performance if they do not win a vote, but quietly be relieved. Ideally, he is smart enough to have wanted to kick it that bit further into the next one at least, and at a time where the polls showed they had a good chance of winning it.
[308] - Oh well, another fine argument down the pan.
320 bit of an overreaction from the Snake Prince really, and the other non-entities that have been fed a line by central office.
312.A political Victor Meldrew in the making, and looking the part with every day that passes with that woolly waistcoat.
320 Tsk, tsk - you didn’t credit Guido for that Hannan quote…
http://order-order.com/
243. Mark, I think most people understand that the SNP have limited power over budgets, they are not as thick as you believe. The polls vary a lot even under normal circumstances and at mid point you would expect some Labour people to be thinking of going back. If anyone in Scotland thinks Labour or the Tories will do any better on the budget then they need therapy.
321 totally. I expect to see hm resigning in disgrace again soon with George Osborne just visible in the shadows laughing uncontrollably.
“I do find Mandelson’s hysterics over Dan Hannan’s comments rather amusing.”
The really amusing thing is what would happen if the press actually bother to look into Hannan’s views on immigration. The BBC wouldn’t know which way to turn……
320 - Correct.
This would never fly.
Particularly as Hannan is an immigrant.
(OK a white one so Powell wouldn’t be interested,but you get my point)
322.That should be if they do not win a vote ‘to hold one’
and Jack Straw has made sure the Dark Lord can’t be leader - a 5 year quarantine for Lords that resign from HoL before they can stand for HoC.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/aug/27/straw-mandelson-commons-lords
So, Tim, is Hannan showing how Tories are evil racists wanting to stop immigration or what?
Ouch - Brookes on Ted Kennedy
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
329 All getting a little bit last chance saloon isn’t it?
Opposition is cathartic. Labour need to relax and let it happen. Learn the lessons of 1995-2005, the lost Tory decade.
280. Mark, Reckon the Tories just have more money to burn, though they probably do have better social events as well.
328 The BBC are even more Donald Sutherland/Bodysnatched than Mandelson.
At the very mention of Enoch Powell they gather up their skirts and flee the scene shrieking for the constable.
221 - the Mail article says that all the 9 kids are dead - Jean is still very much alive.
332- harsh!
301 Because immigration from the New Commonwealth is both recent, and the scale (within such a short time frame) has been unprecedented in our country’s history.
The Irish who were here in the Sixties had in many cases, just been moving from one part of the United Kingdom to another, and the net annual inflow from Ireland at the time would have been far less than from the New Commonwealth.
332 - That’s hillarious.
331 - No.
Theres very little difference between the parties on immigration.
About 20,000 per annumon the points systems, and that will be ironed out by the market.
Thos who support Powells views on race now tend to be outside the Tory party or at least on the irrelevant fringes.
15- Philippe, setting aside the obvious criticisms of the poll you cite, the interesting thing is that just about every poll of the NJ governor’s race this year has shown Corzine anywhere from about 35% to 42%. He never seems to go above that. What DOES change is Christie’s score and the share of undecideds.
Ordinarily, in a race involving an incumbent governor, the most important number is the incumbent’s percentage, since they normally don’t do much better than that number on election day.
I’m not saying that Christie has it wrapped up (as I told you yesterday) and Christie definitely had a bad week last week. The big question is how much voters cared or will care about this news vs. how they already feel about Corzine. I think it would be good to have one or two normal polls on the race before we come to any excited conclusions about how it’s going.
329-And not even from a Commonwealth country!
Is it just me or has the rise in GCSE grades gone almost without comment this year?
I’m glad it has as it was only marginally more tedious than Tory Euro splits based on the semantic use of an adjective.
332 - The scores of US cartoonists as seen here would seem to suggest that the British have as much understanding of Kennedy, and his place in politics, as the Americans do of which bits of the UK go where.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/8/26/772954/-UpDated-x-2A-Special-Tribute-by-Editorial-Cartoonists:-The-Dream-Lives-On-
311 TSE, not sure there is anything stop them having more than one, but I would imagine it would be a long time before they would, if they lost it and then tried to hold another one quickly it would not be looked on favourably by the voters. Salmond has to date always said a generation.
340 - No.
Right, so what’s the point of this latest attack then?
439 - Although if we were to judge repatriation by success rather than Melanin, you Irish (because Powell believed the children born here should also go) would be back off to Ireland and we’d go and get some more lovely East African Asians…..
343- “the semantic use of an adjective”, pardon? Some of us were educated under Labour you know!
OT two snooker players arrested for game fixing
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8224650.stm
Didn’t the BBC show a quite “pro” program about Powell a few months ago?
347 Like Kamlesh Bahl, for example?
350 Yes, on reflection they did show something about his speech. The officer in charge of hysteria and hyperbolae must have been on leave that week.
That or the Beeb have ceased to care about anything other than Strictly a Load of old Tat for idiots and Doctor Who.
334. Talking of SNP funding, where’s me bloody five quid from that ScotNit loser Red Meteor?
Every minute that passes that five quid is worth a tiny bit less on the foreign exchange market, thanks to G Brown Esq.
Hurry up and cough, you pathetic nationalist windbags.
It’s good to see that a majority of Scots stand with virtually all Americans in believing that the release of Megrahi was wrong. Certainly there should be no rush to lump in all Scots with the actions of their minority government, and this poll provides further defense for that proposition.
353 its soaring against the $$ - it was 1.618 earlier, now its 1.622
££££££££ up up and away
That or sub 1.60 soon enough
353- is the arc of prosperity not quite so prosperous?
[352] - Or perhaps the BBC isn’t biased in the way that some paranoids think it is?
“Hurry up and cough, you pathetic nationalist windbags.”
Patience, Sean. They’ve got to arrange a union with their English counterparts in order to pay off their debts…….
354. Good morning Stars & Stripes.
OK, here’s my impression of the German prisoner in Saving Private Ryan:
“Pleeeeease, I like America!”
There. How was that? Any good?
351 - Don’t be like that Sean.
If you want someone to blame, blame the White Australia policy.
As you know, all the time Powell was operating Britain was suffering net emigration.
The Australians were recruiting about 55,000 a year from the UK.
So we went and got some Imigrants to replace them.Some were white, lots weren’t.
344 - I’m no Kennedy fan, but love him or hate him his legislative record was remarkable.
He was particularly good at reaching out to Republicans to get bills passed. He said that today’s enemy was tomorrow’s ally.
357 there is also that possibility.
It does however show Stirctly Come Dancing which earns it eternal ridicule for pandering to goggle-eyed numpties and their reality-drug, it-ain’t-worth-a-thing-if-you-can’t-blow-your-housekeeping-voting-for-it obsession.
Unbiased but crap.
355. When I went to Santa Fe for a conference in February it was only $1.35 or thereabouts, so had to seriously had to watch how much I spent!
360 I’m not blaming anybody.
Immigration between the UK and other wealthy countries tends to balance out. Immigration between this country and third world countries tends to be a one-way street. In general, I don’t regard the latter as being in our interests.
363 Perhaps we can break that record in the next few months - Labour’s last gift to the nation, sterling/dollar parity.
(the above is not a prediction)
Tory tanks on manoeuvres in Rainbowland
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6099142/Tory-logo-goes-rainbow-for-gay-conference-event.html
The UK population increased by 408,000 in 2008.
To give some context, the population of Liverpool was estimated at 435,500 by the mid-2007 ONS estimate.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8224520.stm
Birthrates are twice those of the 1990’s, three times those of the 1980’s.
And 2% of the population are over 85.
366 Funky.
Watch for ConHome to explode in Tunbridge Wells-esque horror.
364 - Rubbish.
Immigration between the UK and Australia, Canada and New Zealand hasn’t balanced out.
We suffered net emigration.
And needed people.
Although your theory works with Ireland if you are describing it as a third world country ( I would never do such a thing).Thats certainly a one way street.
#313 SOL
No
#316. Stuart
Labour national party website, standard monthly member fee times 12, rounded to nearest pound.
#293 stuart.
There is a minimum £1 monthly sub option bottom on the SNP site. I agree the site tries to con you out of more if you don’t read it very carefully - very much like Easyjet or BMI, but thats the SNP for you!
~326 Malcolm G
The SNP have limited power over the total budget but a lot of power over allocation of this budget. Unison spokesman on BBC Scotland this morning attacked SNP on its spending priorities - I think this will resonate with Unison members. You may not like it becuase you genuinely believe everything will be better in an Independent Scotland, and so can’t understand why everybody doesn’t understand this. However unfortunately most people are a bit more cynical than that when it comes to politicians and that includes the SNP.
#309 Morris
The National Trust for Scotland is an entirely seperate organisation to that in England (its a long story). Like the RSPB and the Scottish equivalent of the RSPCA (another seperate organisation) it has more that 5 times the SNP or Tory membership (thank goodness)
Alas the SNT is in severe financial difficulties at present (another long story) and is looking to merge (be taken over) by the English organisation. A real quandry for the ENT management because of the financial liabilities and legalities.
In summary, a Scottish organisation with 5 times the SNP membership and doing something really worthwhile for our precious common heritage needs English help desperately.
Of course most of the ordinary Trust members north and south of the Border probably aren’t even aware they are different organisations. Somewhat of a metaphor?
“Excited conclusions” — Ah! I’m always lil’ excited when I enter a market with big bullets on my gun! For me, it’s like a video game, so sure, I’ll be always somewhat on tilt! I was excited by that poll coze it kinda confirmed the feeling I expressed yesterday; I feel like Clint Eastwood on a horse!
Tim,
Hannan was born in Peru! I didn’t know until i looked him up on Wiki just now!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Hannan
Further to my 370 comment
should have added that the reason why ordinary NT menbers don’t realise there is a difference is that the membership/entry cards work in both countries and the logo is the same
367 MM. What proportion are over 106 ??
369 It depends what period you’re talking about. These days, immigration between this country and other wealthy countries does balance out. There may be a difference of a few tens of thousands between the two in any one year, but nothing significant.
Of course, when there was a large natural increase in the British population, much of that natural increase emigrated to places that needed labour.
369 tim
In recent years, the English cricket team has been full of immigrants from Autralia, the Pacific Islands and South Africa.
If tim’s theory that there has been net emigration to Australia is correct, then shouldn’t we have seen Poms playing for the Aussies?
372 - I know they come over here, they take our jobs…
He’s with you, Boris and Cliff Richard on Fraser Nelsons graphs.
376 - Like Andrew Symonds?
357 I like zebras myself (I saw 4 day old Grevy zebra foals at Marwell Zoo near Eastleigh in 2002-they were so-o-o cute ).
One question;why do all zebras support Newcastle United?
376 - “then shouldn’t we have seen Poms playing for the Aussies?”
There is an obvious explanation for this one …
338. etc: wasn’t a lot of Irish immigration linked to late- and post-WWII construction? Not in Liverpool/Glasgow but certainly in London and elsewhere.
361- Ted Kennedy, as gruff and boisterous and crotchety as he was, also knew how Washington worked and how to work with colleagues to get what he wanted. You have to admire him for that.
Also, take a look at this remarkable photo from today’s NY Post:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08272009/photos/young_ted.jpg
Unfortunately this link doesn’t show the pic as large as it is in the actual newspaper. Anyway, there you see Jack, Mom and Dad, Robert, and then there’s Teddy in front of them all with a football. It is quite impressive to see them all together like that, young and smiling, knowing what they would go on to do.
369 - Clearly I was talking about the period Powell was speaking.
Although now I doubt whether the UK and Spain balances.
I’m not too bothered myself.
Irish people came over to do canal work.
Sri Lankans come over to do root canal work.
Lots of £10 Poms left.
No big deal.
Don’t know if this has been mentioned,
Jack Straw is to amend plans allowing life peers to resign from the House of Lords, to stop them standing as an MP for up to five years, it is reported.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8223953.stm
376 Aussie legend fast bowler Dennis Lillee was a quarter English (one of his grandads),I am sure there are numerous more examples,and not just twixt England and Australia
381 - No, most Irish immigration has historically been linked to economic conditions in Ireland.
378 ukpaul
Partly conceded but it is still a minority. Now if we excluded drunks…..
Why do you speak of Daniel Hannan (MEP, Con) as an immigrant?
370 - Interestingly, the (Scottish) Faculty of Actuaries recently voted in favour of merging with the (English) Institute of Actuaries. Both organisations polled at similar levels, but because of the differential thresholds, the merger proposal failed - fewer than 75% of voting Institute members voted for the merger.
http://www.actuaries.org.uk/media_centre/press_releases/pr-rels/2009/merger_vote_outcome
It appears that the trend outside politics is for unionism rather than for separatism. But no doubt others will give cogent explanations to the contrary.
388 - He was born and raised in Lima, Peru.
389 - There has never been *anything* interesting about the actuarial profession.
370. Mark, Edinburgh - “Alas the SNT is in severe financial difficulties at present (another long story) and is looking to merge (be taken over) by the English organisation.”
Have you got a link to this story?
349 That’s very interesting, Plato.
Personally I stopped betting on snooker when I saw Steve Davis miss the final black in his World Championship final against Denis Taylor. I was also kind of suspicious of the way Joe Johnson leapt from obscurity to become World Champion, only to return rapidly to obscurity thereafter. Both incidents brought to mind the old adage that one should not, generally speaking, bet on animals that can talk.
I saw the game that your post refers to. Hmmmmmm……let’s just say it did nothing to rekindle my interest in snooker as a betting medium.
Born in Peru? Fair enough. Lots of people are.
Does that make him a foreigner, and therefore an immigrant?
In his case, I would have thought not.
Spurious argument. Evidently not a foreigner. QED.
391 Presumably, actuaries find it interesting.
391 - There are a few mildly amusing jokes. But be fair, no one would have read a post that began “Dully,…”.
392 - It was an option they looked at but I believe they have drawn back from it since then due to pressure from the (Scottish) government.
392 - Stuart, here it is.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland/Fear-of-English-takeover-of.5115331.jp
I just noticed that Google has a Blog Search function : http://blogsearch.google.ca/
391 Neil
Just wait ’til Richard Curtis releases “Love actuarially”. It will be set in an around Berwick-on-Tweed.
395 - Absolutely not! If I read one more article about it I will cry.
385 - Enoch Powells British 4 by 100m relay team would be fun.
Hannan in his own words:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/3677651/Journalists_magic_word/
390 It’s a common phenomenon that during periods of uncertainty or fear that groups club together - from everything such as an increase in the use of social networking sites to what may seem more abstract such as your point.
Prof James Woudhusen http://www.woudhuysen.com/index.php [who I used to deal with a lot] had some cracking analysis about this behaviour dating right back to 9/11.
He specialises in future trends and is a fascinating/risque speaker.
401- actuaries are accountants who can’t handle the highs
S&S : Pollster “Neighborhood Research” is “run by conservative strategist Rick Shaften, who was a consultant to Christie’s GOP primary opponent”.
http://www.mainjustice.com/2009/08/26/poll-shows-christies-lead-sliding/
Is there a legal definition of a Scot?
[379] - One question;why do all zebras support Newcastle United?
I’m sure Jack W will confirm that Notts County were there first!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notts_County_F.C.
Somewhat bizarre article by Nick Palmer in his local paper
http://www.beeston-express.co.uk/images/beestonexpress/Aug7pdfs/Aug7p3.pdf
Can’t see how that is going to help his cause!
401 Really? I thought that actuaries, like auditors, did the job because they really enjoyed it.
393 Hi,Peter! I am SURE Steve Davis did not intentioanlly miss that red -its scary to think that epic final is now nearly a quarter of a century ago!
P.S Do you ,or anyone else recall the BBC snooker song ‘Boss of The Black’,sung by professional country singer Jed Ford,whose video ended with a shot of Dennis taylor joyously waggling his finger- a very kind middle-aged ticket clerk from London Underground has posted this on youtube,and he has my cyber assurance if we ever meet the drinks are on me
399- Philippe, here’s the article I mentioned yesterday talking about the ballot design issue and how it isn’t good for the independent candidate in the NJ governor’s race:
http://www.governing.com/blog/nj-governor-will-ballot-design-hurt-chris-daggett
408 Good point! (Also Exeter City fans never tire of reminding you their ground is called St.James Park)
411. Not that song, but “Snooker Loopy” is still there in my memory.
369: How can you say we needed people when we’re one of the most densely populated countries in europe.
France and Germany seem to be getting along ok with lower relative populations.
Patrick.
The real St. James’s Park is here!
406- I’m not suggesting it’s a pro-Democrat poll. It just seems a bit hokey given the tiny sample size and high percentage of undecideds. I don’t know if this pollster has any track record of polling in New Jersey, either. I’d like to see another Quinnipiac, Monmouth, or other big-name poll.
410 - Like nearly everyone else, actuaries only do it because they are paid to
The Screaming Eagles August 27th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
Shagger dog was worse that!
Shagger Dog clinged on like Gordon Brown to Office!
413 - Which is technically not the same as Newcastle, which is St James’ Park (nor is it the same as the London park, St James’s Park).
415 - we’re talking about the post war period and a labour shortage.
Plus large scale emigration.
409. I think Nick’s a little demob happy at the moment…
414 Put bbc snooker new in youtube,about 7-8 down you will get a piccy of the late david vine on a podcast 5mins 43 secs long-the first 3 1/2 mins is a song ‘Memories ‘,looking back over the 1977-86 epoch at the Crucible-then they play ‘Boss of the Black’,which never fails to make me smile from ear to ear! (I still live in the same house,where as a 14 year old boy in 1985 I recall the epic climax of the Taylor-Davis final!
P.S Commiserations on recalling ‘Snooker Loopy ‘
The MP I had lunch with was pretty clear that Brown is ‘clinging on’, but one more gaffe or one more dip in the polls before Christmas will have him in difficulty again. She thinks that Alan Johnson has impressed the PLP in the short-time he’s been Home Secretary and is still the default replacement if Brown goes. But he will have to really shine at conference to give a good reason to ‘go through the pain’ of getting rid of Gordon.
She thinks the mood at Westminister among her colleagues is dreadful and one of ‘resigned defeat’. The expenses scandal has hit them particularly badly. This depression is actually Brown’s best hope for carrying on. She knows a number of people that would have been open to signing up for shoving him out in previous months, but now are of the view that it would make little difference to the party’s standing and are loathe to sign up for a challenge.
So make of that what you will.
416 Well spotted,I’d forgotton Notts County!
Must rush to work,ciao for now,all
Afternoon all and sorry I have missed much of this morning’s blog.
I have just published on PB2 my set on the 4 way marginals in the North-East and East of Scotland. I hope you enjoy them.
Patrick
25 years ago and the memory dims…..I am sure it was a black, not a red! No, obviously I cannot know whether it was intentional but the mere suspicion that it might be was enough from to put me off betting in such events. The Maguire incident reinforces my view.
Snooker ’songs’ live very fleetingly in the memory.
Are there any more detailed stats on the birthrate rise than the likes of the Telegraph and Daily Rant are using i.e,
“However, immigration is still having an impact on population growth because more than half of the increase in births last year was due to non-UK born mothers. ”
As I’m sure Smearbot will get on his crazy horse about female equivalents of Boris’ and Hannan’s of this world. I would be interested to know of recent arrivals, and recent arrivals by region.
The reason I ask if that we are led to believe that the vast majority of immigrations from non-EU are here to stay, and thus the kids are too. So tick all that lot off as extremely likely to be population growth.
However, in comparison we are also told that many from the A8 countries are far more likely to return home after x years (and the flow of new migrants from those countries is drying up, at least for the moment). This obviously an interesting consideration when looking at population numbers / possible growth.
424- thanks for the info, but we’ve heard it all before. I seem to remember that the 2008 local elections were his last chance, then he was going to get sacked if he didn’t reverse their polling deficits over the summer, then it was the party conference. This year we’ve only had one event that Gordon “must win if he is to survive” as they say in the news, it was the local and European elections, which he lost. I’m sure his conference speech will be hyped as his latest last chance.
” no candidate for Governor of New Jersey, other than a Democrat or a Republican, has polled as much as 5% since 1913.” Mmmmm’k.
409 beeston boy - Actually an interesting if somewhat self-serving article by Nick P (I would hazard a guess that the anonymous minister is Prescott).
382 - Looking at that photo you have to ponder the driving ambition, born of his exclusion from Boston society, and you have to wonder if he ever regretted driving his children so hard to achieve greatness once he experienced the terrible price it would exact on his family?
431. Yes that were my thoughts - Prescott. Nick’s story was very Mullinesque. If you are an MP and your successes are behind closed doors, who is going to share them with your constituents other that you? Well done Nick I reckon.
I would have thought that the need for people post WW2 had something to do with the loss of men in that conflict. I’m sure someone can google it, but IIRC the UK lost nearly 400,000 men
new thread
424 - Henry, Thank you for the information.
Regarding the office of Prime Minister, Gordon Brown isn’t ‘clinging on’ to anything. He is securely in place.
He doesn’t have a problem with it. The Labour Party has a problem.
They either have to wait until he goes, of which there is no sign at present, or topple him, of which there is even less of a sign. To get rid of Brown they need a volunteer who is willing to become prime minister for less than six months, lead the party to defeat, and sacrifice his / her political career for no real purpose.
Who would want to volunteer for that?
403 - there is a comment on that article by “madasafish” the same one as from this parish I wonder?