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The spreads move back to all-time Labour low

October 2nd, 2009


SportingIndex

Punters seem to be following the tracker

Before Gordon Brown’s conference speech began to affect YouGov’s daily tracker ratings the SportingIndex spead market on the number of seats the parties will win at the next election had moved to what I think was a record low of 198 – 203 seats.

Immediately after the the first poll to take the speech into account had Labour just seven points behind the market moved back up again a couple of notches.

Well it’s now all change and we are back where we were on Monday.

Spread-betting on commons seats is a high risk high reward activity where you can win and lose a lot of money. Thus a Labour sell at, say, £20 a seat, at the present level would incur you losses of more than £1,000 if Brown’s party ended up with 248 seats.

We should be getting a lot of polling in the next day or so which might impact further on the numbers. Then during the Tory conference we can expect further moves to Cameron’s party as, no doubt, the daily tracker starts to be influenced by all the coverage they will be getting during their conference.

I now have a small sell position on Labour taken at the 203 levels and a buy position on the Lib Dems at 51 seats. I’ve been impressed at the way the Lib Dem poll ratings have held up.

Mike Smithson