And now the first exclusive PB Angus Reid Strategies poll..
October 20th, 200940% 23% 20%
A third pollster reports a 17 point Labour deficit
Tonight sees the launch of the exclusive new monthly poll by the leading Canadian firm, Angus Reid Strategies for Politicalbetting.com - and the timing could nor be more apt.
The main party figures are above. The “others” are UKIP 5%: GRN 3%: BNP 3%: SNP 3%: PC 1%.
Extraordinarily the findings, like the ones from Ipsos-MORI and ICM earlier tonight show exactly the same Labour deficit - seventeen points.
Like YouGov polling is carried out online from a polling panel but unlike YouGov the sample is past voted weighted to what those questioned said they they did at the last election. YouGov weights by party ID.
The voting intention question has been designed to get respondents to focus more on what they will actually be doing in their particular seats in the hope of picking up any tactical intent. It reads “If a General Election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?”
Angus Reid Strategies is applying for membership of the British Polling Council and is following its transparency requirements immediately. I am hoping to get a link up tonight so that the detailed tables can be down-loaded.
The sample size was 2.077 which is in line with most YouGov polls but is about double that which we see from the telephone pollsters.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
first?
Well done to PB.com and Angus Reid.
A milestone in British blogging history.
On a serious note 17% lead with 3 polsters…..
brings a smile to my face.
Crash and burn Labour, you deserve it
Christ - I’m stunned.
A 17 point lead again again again.
And URW thought it was a rogue
17% lead, 17% for ‘others’
What a thoroughly comprehensive thwacking.
Great work, Mr. Smithson, and thanks also to the canny pollsters you’re working with.
17 point lead all round, can’t really argue with it.
Three 17% leads in one night?
WELL THAT ABOUT WRAPS IT UP FOR ANOTHER NOKIA.
5, I think I said one of the polls was a rogue, in response to Macrory’s tweeting
Well done Mike,
And its more bad news for labour, what does 40-23-20 look like on seats?
When do we see the crosstabs, learn about the weightings and generally give their methodology the baptism of fire it so clearly craves?
Is there any correction for false memory of past voting?
Well done Mike and everyone involved.. here’s to many more of these!
Well done also for not ruining my evening too, what a polling day!!
Congrats on getting the figures out. The first time round is always harder than you expect.
Isn’t the LibDem figure surprisingly high given that voting intention question? Does it imply that few “LibDem sympathisers” are thinking of tactical voting to keep out Tory, or Labour, where they live?
what is the MOE on a 2000 sample poll - i think its 3% on a 1000, my guess is 2% but anyone know better?
Congratulations Mike on the launch of this “exclusive new monthly poll” lets hope it becomes the new bench-mark.
A feather in your cap Sir.
I’ve always liked the number seventeen.
I’m also willing to admit that my earlier assertion that 17% was a bit on the high side was, erm, a load of complete rubbish.
And I wonder what they’re doing different that means Yougov are overstating Labour by 7 pts?
And let’s not talk about ComedyResult.
Excellent to have another pollster - well done, Mike.
How do they adjust for sampling bias and certainty to vote?
14 - It is in line the other pollsters tonight have had them at 18 and 19 respectively.
17 - hooray, comment #17 on this night of 17s!
And where are my manners? A huge well done to Team PB.com
23%! 23%!! 23%!!!
I don’t think I’ll stop smiling for a week!
Thanks Mike and Angus - you really know how to give me pleasure.
Now, what was Mike’s rule about the worst Labour poll finding again?
10. Around 120 seat majority for the Tories I reckon, because of the high “Others” count.
134 (FPT):
before I start this rant I want to state that I’m not a BNP supporter and never have been. (I probably sound a tad naieve too)
I’ve had enough of the media and politicians saying that ‘you can’t vote for the BNP their bad people’ (or things to similar affect). It just makes them sound like 8 year olds.
I’ve not got round to reading much of the BNP literature that comes though the door (maybe I should sometime) but it strikes me that if they’d actually said or done something illegal enough for the main parties to not want them in any election then action would have been taken to ban them. While they have had a go at the BNP constitution they’re not banning them.
the problem is that the main parties currently do not have enough positive policies that can counteract the BNP. The 8 year old act is not making poeple turn away from them.
Was it only voting intention which was asked - or are there supplementary goodies in store for later?
Congrats Mike.
When did 4 pollsters come in with the same result 3x ?!?!?!
Listening out for the sound of flying Nokias (even from down here in Brizzle).
Well done at bringing this to fruition Mike.
Congrats Mike.
When did 3 pollsters come in with the same result 3x ?!?!?!
BAXTERED:
National Prediction: CON majority 110
23 - I plugged the results into UK-Elect and it came up with a majority of 92.
Nothing like a bit of consistency !!!
Surely this must have Lord Mandelson going ‘Eeny Meenie Minie..’
29.
100+ Tory maj looks about right Martin.
Chuffed for you Mike. A lot of time no doubt has gone into bringing this to fruition. Interesting that the LD’s do better…
@30:
Surely, in the interests of completeness, each PBAR poll should have an accompanying VIPA?
It must be the local candidates effect…
Congratulations Mike. A small step for Mike, a giant leap for Bloggerkind.
24, we’re in an area of some BNP strength where I live.
Their last electoral literature was very smart, and better to read than the mainstream parties. Were it not for the fact it was BNP stuff it may’ve swayed my vote.
I’ve also known at least two people who voted BNP, one of whom was racist, and the other of whom was a nice middle class girl.
So, have we found Labour’s core vote yet?
http://FTP.94
The first regular monthly survey by the leading Canadian firm, Angus Reid Strategies exclusively for Politicalbetting, which is working with us as part of its effort to introduce a second substantial online pollster to the UK market. This is due out later tonight. M. Smithson.
This will be great mike if your poll can tell us if the good people of GB are beginning to fall in love with the Tories, as opposed to simply hating the guts of Nu Labour.
Something tells me not yet; the Conservative lead is more a symptom of the Labour failure in every aspect of their rule.
I still think that although the Conservatives will get a majority at the GE, it wont be big and that voters will fragment their vote towards the smaller parties. Which will make for an interesting parliament.
I’m still forcasting a loss of +30 seats for the Lib?dems.
And still Populus have not published the detailed datasheets from their last Times poll. How many days is that now? 12?
The British Polling Council should kick Populus to make room for Angus Reid.
http://www.populuslimited.com/politics-category.html
Do you have regional breakdowns?? If so, given the wording of the question, this survey type could be very useful for regional seat predictions as it should account for tactical voting.
24 Peter Hain is a prat for attempting to ‘no-platform’ the BNP.
1m voters chose them back in the summer so something is very wrong for the first time ever in British politics.
IMO White, males need to challenge their views and say Nope. ‘I’m like you and I say no’.
Sticking female, BME totems on QT plays right into their hands as identity politics.
I’ve just realised, we’ve got a name conflict.
PB-ARS and ARSE.
38: remember…
you can eat all of an apple core…
39. So the minor parties getting some cred on PB’s poll
17 is beginning to be a favorite number tonight.
Does this mean that OGH is off Kellner’s Christmas card list?
Thanks for your work in making this possible.
Are the headline figures weighted at all in respect of likelihood to vote?
42, I concur, although your first sentence is unnecessarily long.
Hague/Gove would’ve been better than Warsi. But, we’ll see how it goes.
re 19. Richard - when I’ve got the detailed data I’ll do another post about their methodology and the other findings from the poll.
When I first got the draft figures I had not seen MORI or ICM and I was concerned that this was out of line.
Angus Reid is a big name in Canadian and international polling and they bring a lot to the table.
39. When you fall in love and then fall out - it is very difficult to fall in love again,
39 - The proble with falling madly in love is that the breakup is usually worse. The electorate are taking a much more sensible approach with the Conservatives than they did with New Labour. Plus I think that the idea that U. K. Voter was gagging for Labour in 1997 is stretching things a little.
UKpollingreport seems to be down.
Has Mike’s/PB’s new pollster caused a Wells-melt-down?
@49:
Well, it looks like they’re having a good first day. That 23%’s gonna get them some attention!
Mike, congratulations to all involved, this is a fantastic and innovative idea for PB.com.
And as for the findings, well to see that three different pollsters have all come up with a delicious 17% lead is great news.
Now what impact will this have on Gordon Brown’s plans for the future?
42: you mention BNP to any mainstream politician and they say they’re bad people like a wimpy 8 year old (hain especially). but with well researched and intellegent arguments you should be able to make mincemeat out of them. It’s a shame that very rarely happens.
So this is the swingback certain people have been talking about?
As a known Tory leaner I’m pleased. As a punter I cant see Labour that low and unless this is constantly reinforced I will be buying Labour if they slip below 200 on the spreads having dipped in to fixed odds on Labour in the above 200 category about a week or so ago.
I had a smallish covering bet on Labour below 200 a while ago on the back of the sage postings of a few well known characters on here but its something Im not over-confident about. Whilst I expect some Tory spectaculars in the Midlands region for example, in other areas I just dont think there is enough possible Tory voters to deliver such a big swing to win seats as polls like these would suggest.
Interesting poll.
Anyone who thinks UKIP will get 5% of the national vote or the BNP 3% is clinically insane
That rich farmer fellow tim is going to have a hard time explaining these numbers away…
54. Gordon Brown has plans? For anything?
17 it has a ring to it don’t you think
One danger to watch out for: given the low Lab share, expect the loyalists to try to vigorously rubbish PB-ARS over the next day or two.
OGH DEFENCE FORCE — ASSEMBLE!
FPT Richard Nabavi “Indeed, this is an argument I’ve repeatedly made; for all his faults, and incredible though it seems, Gordon has some credibility amongst Labour voters on the economic front”
People are brought up to believe the BBC is honest and impartial and a lot of people don’t pay attention to politics except when they think there’s a crisis on. So when people who normally don’t pay attention start to pay attention because they see there’s a crisis on they start to pay attention to the BBC six and ten o’ clock news.
Anyone here could do an experiment - only watch the BBC six and ten o’clock news for two weeks with no other source of info - no internet, no documentaries, only the Mirror or the Sun and if the Sun just read the sport. Then see after those two weeks how your view of McDoom’s economic skill has changed.
Three outliers in one evening! What are the odds against that?
49 Mike - Excellent, I look forward to the detail.
One observation: I like the wording of the question, which is not as much a leading question as in Marginals poll, but which does sensibly specify in your constituency. However, wouldn’t it be better to ask:
“which one of the following parties would you be most likely to vote for in your constituency?”
rather than:
“which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?”
58.Yokel, I was thinking more of when he intends to retire from front line politics. Still think he will leave them up the creek with out a canoe never mind a paddle before the next GE.
57,you have to love tim
57 - I dunno, it rather depends on the size of the total poll. It probably will be lower but this may still be picking up residual expenses issues.
Never too sure of the terminology, but is this poll an outlier or a rogue..?
A good day to bury bad Prime Ministers?
With seat totals (Electoral Calculus):
Angus Reid/pb.com
Con 40% Lab 23% LD 20%
Con 380 Lab 184 LD 55 Nat 10 Min 3
Con maj 110
ICM/Guardian
Con 44% Lab 27% LD 18%
Con 395 Lab 192 LD 33 Nat 9 Min 3
Con maj 140
IPSOS-MORI
Con 43% Lab 26% LD 19%
Con 390 Lab 189 LD 41 Nat 9 Min 3
Con maj 130
Congratulations Mike on the launch.
Time for a bottle of Poll Roger Cuvée Sir Winston Churchill.
66
For Tim ,Both., Its all because local electors are choosing local candidates. Its skewing the real picture.
64 And he’s still ignoring my John Major local seat and prominent parliamentarian response.
@57:
I presume you’re happy with tonight’s polls, tim? Things must be sour in the Fuhrerbunker.
Congratulations, Mike. You must be very proud.
Mike,
might I suggest this is a good thread on which to place one of your paypal donate buttons. I am damn sure there are a fair few people here who are very happy to make a conroibution towards costs for this (and not just because they like the result
).
Wow!!!
Congratulations! It’s a bouncing baby… POLL!
Martin- “So, have we found Labour’s core vote yet?”
Remind me: what vote-share did Labour get at the Euros?
57 Why?
Pollsters can’t take into account that minor parties don’t field full slates of candidates. If the BNP and UKIP did field full slates, then those figures would be entirely plausible.
23% Labour? 23%? OMG! :O
@75:
Ooh, now we’re talking. You’re a bad man.
76 IIRC UKIP are planning on 500 candidates at the GE, no idea about BNP.
37 - the person I report to at work votes BNP, not your average BNP supporter you would think.
I know several people who have voted BNP, a few of them are people on their 60’s, lifelong Labour supporters who feel betrayed.
All I can say Mike is two things:
1) Congratulations on this major achievement for British political blogging.
2) Thank goodness the poll showed a mega Tory lead, or I suspect the natives around here would have become a little restless…
What is going on at LabourHome? I know Alex H has left, but it’s gone completely crap in the last month or so.
No mention at all on any of these polls.
75. Labour headed back not to 1931, as I have joked about in the past, but 1906…
It’s weird seeing a poll with no + or - next to it
81. Are you implying us Herd Boys are neurotic when it comes to polls showing small Tory leads?
Evening all
A real promulgation of polls today and all of them good news for the Conservatives though the degree to which we are still in the post-Conference afterglow reamins to be seen.
The ICM poll is particularly good for the Conservatives suggesting the kind of vote share they haven’t seen since the heady days of 1983. For the LDs 19% doesn’t look too clever and those of use who still expect 35-40 LD seats after the next election aren’t too worried yet. Nonetheless, in the context of Tory election victories after periods of Labour Government, it wouldn’t be that bad.
For Labour, there’s nothing. 25% or so of the vote which would eclipse the 1983 nadir. If the SNP can pick up some Labour seats in Scotland, a total of 180 or so Labour MPs looks conceivable.
As a contest, the ref would be stopping it, the towel would be thrown in - the only question now, as it was for the Tories at this time in 1996, is how bad is it going to be and who will survive the onslaught to take over the wreckage.
69 - What was your point about John Major, I missed that.
78. “You’re a bad man.”
Yupp. This bad man is currently in Schadenfreude heaven.
Labour: you are about to learn the true meaning of the word “thumping”.
69 Plato
I think he has just gone all djanogly.
79 If they can fund the deposits!
80 My builder - 43 WWC with aspirations and two kids - voted BNP last time and will do again.
There is no visible immigration here or lack of work per se - he’s effed off at being ignored by Labour/Muslim burkha/Sharia stuff.
83 runnymede
The party of Keir Hardie, Aneurin Bevan, and Clement Attlee is now led by Gordon Brown.
That alone says it all.
@86:
“For Labour, there’s nothing.”
Trying to cheer ‘em up, are you?
Congratulations Mike.
It’s like pb.com just had its first day at the big school.
Mike
Re 49. If you believe you have got the methodology right then you have to stick with the results when they come out, whatever they are. There is no logic to thinking about changing the methodology because the results are different to the results of other companies.
Keep up the good work.
83 - Strange you mention 1906. Every time I look at polls of late in terms of seats one A.Darling is a casualty. I cannot find a Chancellor losing his seat in an election, ever. So I was looking for someon of equal prestige and the last person on a par to lose their seat was Arthur Balfour leader of the opposition who was swept away in the Liberal landslide of 1906.
75. And in 1906 they got most of their seats by dint of a secret pact with the Liberals. Now about those Miliband rumours …
Mervin King on Sky News
87 Check the last thread.
Curious that you missed it twice
Mike congratulations on such a major step forward for PB.
Well I for one dont care if we Tories never have the electorate falling in “love with us” if they return David Cameron with a majority north of 50.
Just goes to show the mega marginals this year was a rogue because it was done during the LibDem conference.
Wonder if the BBC will cover any of these polls this evening?
Interesting vote share percentages have emerged in this historic first PB poll. As it happens I would not be surprised if they aren’t closer to the actual GE figures than the other polls. This is because I am expecting a Lib Dem boost and a Labour collapse if Brown is still in charge at polling date. Differential voter turnouts between the 3 main parties will see to the rest.
Lord Rennard cleared by the Parliamentary authorities of fiddling his allowances
http://www.libdemvoice.org/?p=16593
98- OK OK, it’s a “y”, not an “i”!
79 Was that before or after the Court ruling this week?
69 - Plato.
I have.
John Major wasn’t local to Huntingdon, you seem to have overstretched again.
What point were you trying to make?
@100:
People have never voted Tory because they want to *love* us. They just want us to be RIGHT.
We’re not like lefties, we don’t have this desperate, tragic emptiness in our souls that we’re constantly trying to fill with the ovation of others.
I’d rather be right than happy any day.
Poll needs expert commentary and analysis from Roger, Gabble, coldstone etc.
Congratualtions, Mike.
It must be helpful to have the results of this 1st PB poll echoed by 2 others published today.
99 - he has a habit of missing things he doesn’t want to see.
whilst following other posters around demanding answers to his questions
Mervyn King not being very upbeat.
“fewer resources for consumption”
Forget Dearling’s growth rates
Great news on the PB poll - what a great innovation for this site.
Wow, three rogues in a row! What are the odds? Hmmmm… I guess about 5% x 5% x 5%, which equals 0.0125% chance, or once in 8,000 such occurrences. We are witnessing a once in 8,000 event here, folks. Brown in 2010!
Labour scoring 23% in a national UK opinion poll just six months before we’ll be in the middle of a general election campaign is completely extraordinay. The Tories hardly ever went this low throughout the whole of 92-97 Parliament nevermind in the final six months. Astonishing. If another poll comes out soon and back up Angus Reid surely Labour will plunge into meltdown in an attempt to get rid of the Clunking One?
96. Didn’t the Conservative government resign in December 1905 - just before the landslide in January 1906? Just wondering if there might be more parallels!
No post-conference bounce then.It would seem that only”events” stand between Cameron and Downing Street.
This type of finding will dispirit the activists so much that they will lose heart and it will become self-fulfilling.I’m beginning to believe it will be worse than 1983 for them.
79. The critical figures will be the 17% going to others (up from 15% a couple of months back) and the second 100% going to non-voters. If ‘others’ continue to surge, by May they could be 20% plus.
If a minor party (or parties) can mobilise the previous non-voter, you could find that Labour and Lib Dem fall to third and fourth as they did in the European elections.
Or if Cameron’s response to a ratified Lisbon is strong enough, he could pull in UKIP’s vote and go to 45-47% overnight,or even 50% if previous non-voters felt engaged by a promise of a referendum on the EU.
Or if he flunks it, he could haemmorrhage votes rapidly.
79. Plato - “IIRC UKIP are planning on 500 candidates at the GE, no idea about BNP.”
The EDP are going to have several hundred candidates too by the looks of things:
- The English democrats will be looking to put a full board of candidates for the upcoming General Election.
http://www.englishdemocrats.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=313&Itemid=107
102 Scarface
Mervyn King
OK OK, it’s a “y”, not an “i”!
More likely it’s a “why?” not an “I”
105 So being the PPC since 1976 and elected in 1979 does not make John Major a local candidate after 20 yrs when he became PM in 1999?
Pfft.
Listening to Mervyn, is he trying to undermine Labour?
58 Gordon Brown has plans? For anything?
Oh yes. He told the diversity select committee meeting today, live on t’telly, that he expects between 120 and 140 female Labour MPs after the next GE. So will we be seeing the first ever all-woman PLP?
Maybe not “hundreds” then, but still an awful lot:
‘Target of 120 English Democrat General Election Candidates in 2010′
http://www.englishdemocrats.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=373:target-120-english-democrat-general-election-candidatesin-2010&catid=1:latest&Itemid=2
109 - I love the way central bankers can make even terrifying things sound bland.
Just a thought as I retire to watching the boxing on Eurosport, Glasgow NE, another Labour case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
116 Stuart Dickson
In Scottish constituencies?
You should be worried.
Another excellent poll for the tories, but where does this new pollster get it’s respondents from????
119 - Well Labour did try to undermine him so it would only be fair to repay the compliment.
82 Plato. On LabourHome, Alex Hilton is suggesting Mr Brown for EU President
http://www.labourhome.org/?p=7957
125: read post 49 of this thread (by OGH himself)
111…a 5% chance is 19/1 or 20 for those who chose decimal odds.
118 - We were talking about the selection of MPs and whether they were local when selected.
But thanks for the laugh.
I think the big historical thing for this poll is not the figures or the lead etc but the way the internet and blogsphere is setting new boundaries for itself and constantly challenging the mainstream.
Congratulations Mike and Angus Ried.
Very entrepreneurial. Very Tory
‘Fleet Street’ will be sick of you chaps!
114, Labour’s post conference ‘bounce’ was a retrospective confection of the punditry, bored with a slow news weekend. The cold hard evidence of these polls must be like a freezing shower waking them from their reverie.
86. stodge - “… who will survive the onslaught to take over the wreckage.”
That is a crucial question stodge, and the answer will make tremendously uncomfortable reading for Labour loyalists.
Very few non-dinosaurs will survive the slaughter.
128
Cheers. So we find out later.
127
unhelpful headline from BBC report on King’s speech.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8317200.stm
127: would the general populace of this country accept ANY of the mainstream politicians in the role of EuroPres given the current expenses fallout?
120 Harriet a shoe in for next leader then?
92. wibbler - “The party of Keir Hardie…”
Why do Labourites look back so fondly on Keir Hardie?
His biography makes for pretty gobsmacking reading. Eg. his anti-immigrant campaigns make the BNP look like shrinking violets.
136. Hmmm - a delusion? Like most of Labour’s policy ideas.
127 - Might not be such a bad plan, if he could do to Europe what he has done to the UK might actually be worthwhile.
130 tim
Tim, YOU provide the biggest laugh on a daily basis with your anger and bitterness and delusion. So thank YOU for the laughs. Excellent to see you so frustrated. When envious, twisted, bitter left wingers show as much frustration and desperation as you, it shows things are heading in the right direction.
Regards.
136 dr spyn
Distracting and unhelpful, but not irrelevant.
“Anyone who proposed giving government guarantees to retail depositors and other creditors, and then suggested that such funding could be used to finance highly risky and speculative activities, would be thought rather unworldly. But that is where we now are.”
That is bang on the mark.
136 - listening to him is even worse.
“we will be paying for this for a generation”
As Gordon would say “no more boom and bust”
96. James Burdett - “Every time I look at polls of late in terms of seats one A. Darling is a casualty. I cannot find a Chancellor losing his seat in an election, ever.”
Cllr Jason Rust is about to make a wee bit of history.
143 - follow up
“unemployment will remain high”
“inflation will remain volatile”
“Economy SHOULD return to growth this year”
Waugh has been looking at the BNP gifts.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/10/bnps-flagging-patriotic-credentials.html
Upside down Union Jacks, the naval sign of distress.
When did Michael Crick become interested in anything remotely close to the truth?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2009/10/spot_the_differences.html
Congratulations Mike!
111. “Wow, three rogues in a row! What are the odds? Hmmmm… I guess about 5% x 5% x 5%, which equals 0.0125% chance, or once in 8,000 such occurrences. We are witnessing a once in 8,000 event here, folks. Brown in 2010!”
“The cold truth is that the Labour members have utterly failed to impress the House of Commons and the constituencies as a live force, and have lost confidence in themselves and each other … there is little leadership but a great deal of anti-leadership”
That was Beatrice Webb’s view of Labour MPs in 1914. Plus ca change.
UK polling is back on line, but no mention so far of the PB poll. It will be interesting to see what AW says.
145: how much will the SNP have on that prediction?
I’m not keen on using national polls on scotland or wales for looking at individual seats
Re: 133 - Indeed, Stuart, and the SNP performance against Labour will be critical. Were a number of Scottish Labour seats to fall, it would deprive Labour of not only numbers in the HoC but also some potential, if not leadership contenders, then Shadow Cabinet members.
Mike,
Congratulations. PB will go from strength to strength. Hope you are celebrating.
147 was an upside down Union Jack ever a naval sign of distress? It would be very dificult to spot from any sort of distance. And only work after the Union with Ireland as before that the flag was the same either way up. It would make more sense to fly the Ensign upside down.
127. “82 Plato. On LabourHome, Alex Hilton is suggesting Mr Brown for EU President
http://www.labourhome.org/?p=7957”
Is Alex Hilton a UKIP supporter?
I wonder -IF [big big IF, I ain't counting any chickens ] Cameron got a lead anthing like this at a GE, would those who keep saying there was ‘no enthusiasm for him like there was for Blair’ shut up considering, Blair didn’t do aswell.
146 - That’s Mervyn King’s way of saying “We are in the Brown stuff”
147 Oh dear - shurely anyone with a passing knowledge of the UJ knows which way it goes up.
Not exactly hard is it
142 Tim does seem a bit cross this evening, for some reason. Not his usual laid-back, genial, witty self.
To those decent Labour activists out there, who are no doubt working damned hard and getting nothing but abuse - keep your chins up, its all cyclical in the end and your time will come again (eventually). My grandmother canvassed for the Labour party in a staunch Tory village for years. She was Labour because she believed in fairness and the underdog and she was as loyal a patriot as anyone I have ever met.
I thought of her a a great deal when canvassing in the nadir years 94-97 and tried to do “my bit” as she had done hers. I respect you (people like NPMP) for fighting on now, even though I hope you are soundly defeated.
If I, as a Tory can offer you one peice of genuine advice it is this. You have nothing to lose long term by campaigning for what you really believe, not what the pollsters (no disrespect Mike) tell you might appeal to xyz demographic.
We Tories were in the political short term mad to eschew Ken Clarke over Haugue & IDS. It helped lose us seats in the short term BUT we won the big battle over keeping the UK out of the Euro as a result.
You would have won in 1997 even without abandoning quite so many old Labour principles. You should be more confident about saying what you really believe in and hold out for those values.
Congratulations on getting your own poll Mike. That’s very impressive.
Terrible move by Cameron on all women shortlists. Blotted his copy book that one.
145 - I think the unfortunate thing is that by all accounts, Darling is an effective constituency MP.
That said, I am looking forward to watching the big wigs roll come election night.
158 - given up posting the rest, we really, really are in for a rough ride aren’t we.
It’s ok folks Nazi Nick was just having a laugh.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2009/10/bnps_hang_gener.html
Can see him being a big hit at Jongleurs.
“I am looking forward to watching the big wigs roll come election night…”
Ah, yes.
I think if Lembit Opik and Peter Hain were to lose their seats, I would have no more ambitions left.
OT
Has anyone noticed ghow the price of fuel has been creeping up 108.9/109.09 petrol/diesel in most places round our way, and thats before the vat increase…
167 - It’s a double whammy of an appreciating oil price and a declining pound.
150. “there is little leadership but a great deal of anti-leadership”
Visions of Labour disintegrating after Cameron’s landslide
139 Stuart Dickson
I’m by no means an expert, but I have great admiration for Keir Hardie. Founding an enduring political movement is no small task.
People have to be set in the context of their times. According to his Wikipedia page, he campaigned against sectarianism in America, for Indian home-rule, and an end to segregation in South Africa.
The government has announced an addition to it’s Asset Sale - 300 broken KitKats !
FPT
Yes that democracy is a terrible thing isn’t it Constan. Tell you what, why not go all the way and just get the glorious leader to impose our MPs on us without all that nasty general election stuff. After all we clearly can’t be trusted to make the right decisions for the good of the country.
Hogwash. (1) It costs 25 quid, no questions asked except credit card number, to join the conservative party, hence to buy a vote for the PPC. Not actually very democratic selling votes. (2) IDS as leader = right decision for the good of the country? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha (etc).
170. But he did have a problem with his temper apparently.
166 - Any other big names susceptible to a fall on these figures?
Is there anywhere you can see this put into context? Who’d be looking for a job on Friday morning?
169:
As i said earlier on the previous post. They’ll go beck to thier roots (ultra left) and not be electable for a couple of parliaments rather than tearing themselves apart.
This poll seems more than a bit odd to be frank. Others on 17%? Labour on 23%? I don’t believe either.
168 But around here (S. Gloucestershire/N. Bristol) lowest is 101.9 unleaded, eg at Sainsbury’s or Shell stations.
132. The media did their level best to ruin the Tory Party Conference with speculation about Europe.
I am not being paranoid - it was bound to happen; the party on top can do without an upset and so when something looks like its going to provide one, the inevitable happens.
As Mike said, they were sent out to find a story.
I suspect Labour closed the gap on the back of the Tories being under attack from one quarter or another throughout the conference season ending with the Tories themselves delivering bad news.
Now the public have forgotten what all the fuss was about and remembered what is happening in the country.
Congratulations Mike. PB winning here!
Sadly for Alistair Darling (and stjohn) I just heard that another member of the shadow cabinet will be campaigning with Jason Rust in the constituency this week.
176 What about the other two?
164. Worse even than all of that because of all the millions of foreign young men ZNL let into the country. If you mix that in with 20 years of cold porridge and mass unemployment the big cities turn into a Heironymous Bosch painting.
Labour have ticked down 3 seats on SPIN.
Well done to the Conservatives.
Haven’t posted for a long time, but had to comment on these impressive leads so close to the election. This is political momentum of a profound kind. The British people are shifting to the right, and the public mood for reform grows.
It gives David Cameron and the Conservatives a thumbs up following their conference, which combined honesty, with rare detail and the first serious challenge to ‘big government’ in the post-war period. Labour’s dinosaur state monolith needs to dismantled.
But let’s not get complacent. The hard work is just beginning. A destroyed and damaged nation needs to be rebuilt.
‘Government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem.’
Isn’t it funny what a difference a few polls make? Only yesterday the prospect was a hung parliament - today it’s Labour wipeout.
174: you’ll probably see the last of jacqui smith (more than likely) and charles clarke (good chance)
178 Andrew Neil said [in an edition of the DP last week] that the EU row was a media driven desire for a story that didn’t go anywhere.
180 .The other two are less puzzling - though I have never taken MORI’s 100% certainty to vote headline figures that seriously. I recall at the beginning of the 2005 election campaign this gave the Tories a 5% lead in a MORI survey for the FT.
186 He was correct. We all laughed about it at Conference [whilst drinking our still wine!]
172
“(1) It costs 25 quid, no questions asked except credit card number, to join the conservative party”
As opposed to costing nothing at all to be on the electoral register and so have a vote. Your point being?
” (2) IDS as leader = right decision for the good of the country?”
Thats democracy for you. After all 12 years of Labour has not been good for the country but unlike you I am not suggesting that we should get rid of democracy because sometimes the voters get it wrong.
186 id est, Tim = “the media”
187 But didn’t Labour win with about 2.5% so its not THAT far out weeks ahead.
Congratulations on the new poll Mike.
Three in a row isn’t bad at all.
Conhome have mentione the new poll here..
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/10/new-icm-poll-also-has-tory-lead-at-17.html
191. Labour won by 3% - but no other poll gave the Tories a lead throughout the campaign
190. Poor old Tim - Latvian fascists, schmuttergate, M&Sgate - and yet still the voters are backing Cameron!
Glasgow Rangers 1 Unirea Urziceni (Romania) 4
I would love to be a fly on the wall in No.10 right now, Nokia’s flying, KitKats breaking, photocopiers being kicked, aides hiding in rooms in fear of physco Brown…
I bet the scene and atmosphere is like the film “the shining” …
Physco wielding an axe as he trolls from room to room looking for someone to blame/murder !
Mandelson banging on the front door and shouting “calm down Gordon” through the letterbox.
195 Had to smile at Conad’s report to ConHome of the Pb.com poll
The new PB poll has a 17 point lead too!
Us=40%
Them=23%
Dem=20%
191 Why is it that Labour posters are arguing about much they may lose by rather than putting forward reasons to vote for them?
I feel like a stuck record on this as I simply don’t feel warm and fuzzy about a party that smears and lies about their opponents and the state we’re in.
175 Is your argument, then, that people shouldn’t be entitled to any say over who leads them, in case they get it wrong?
Congratulations Mike (and the chaps and chapesses at Angus Reid) for this.
Will be fun to see the detail behind it.
An I apologise to IPSOS/MORI for calling a poll showing a Tory lead of 17% as a rogue.
The biggest danger to the Tories is if these 3 polls become the tipping point for Labour to get rid of Brown.
My reading of this is that people really are sick to the back teeth of this government and ironically 2 or 3 days of gordon brown saying 50 days to save the planet and laughably calling people statesmanlike(as if he would have a clue about statesmanlike behaviour), or mandelson lying for fun or balls being bullying and deceitful or the milibands being the millibands or straw criticising prison governors or whatever, the list seems to be endless over the last few days. Five or six weeks of these people is going to literally destroy the Labour party. Their best plan is to be invisible for the next six months.
If I were coordinating the election campaign for the Conservatives I’d start thinking about taking big risks - and switching the focus from trying to secure a majority to attempting to cripple the Labour Party’s ability to act as an effective, nationwide fighting force in the future.
Congratulations to Political Betting, this really is a massive step forward for Political Betting.
Anyway it’s always nice to see good Lib Dem results in the polls prior to an election, and this is one of those occasions.
I will write a congratulation blog post on my blog tomorrow and will unveil a plan that I have to fund the future of Political Betting.
203: the labour party will give gordo the gopher until the PBR surely?
204.
Sounds like a plan.
Phone it in.
We might all be a lot better of if they stopped ‘doing stuff’.
205 - Too risky Neil, danger is that you take your eye of the ball on the main targets.
Bit like the Lib Dems decapatation strategy of 2005.
201 Because it is shouting backwards in a raucous crowd, Plato.
I did post a few reasons yesterday (or the day before) that some might consider it when you mentioned how little positivity there was.
Perhaps it is shell shock?
203 - I am not concerned about Labour ditching Brown. It will look like what it is, a cynical and desperate move motivated by fear. I think that any move against Brown will do more harm than good. I think if they ditched Brown they would long for mere 17 point deficits.
Do we have the fieldwork dates for this new survey?
206 Do you have any idea how silly/pompous you sound?
196 I thought it was less than 3.
Either way - no poll is taken on its own and statistically, they are all bound to throw up an outliner some time ot other.
I think taking issue with MORI over one poll is a bit like piddling in ther wind tonight.
192 My point being that the party sells the right to vote on a matter which concerns everyone and in which voting should be free. The way things are going this seems to be a won battle.
And sorry: there are “we all make mistakes” mistakes, and “we must leave no stone unturned to see that this never, ever, ever happens again” mistakes. IDS was in the latter category.
211 - The Danger for me is that, whatever leader they chose, will get a bounce, bit like the bounce Brown got, when he became PM.
The whole country will be giddy, thinking yes, we’ve gotten rid of Brown.
For Labour, a win at the next General Election is to deny the Tories an overall majority.
206.
As users of the site we should support the site financially, that can be done by many different ways and I shall outline some of my ideas tomorrow and run them past PBers.
210 Do point me to the post as I’m crap at Googling PB
212: see post 49
217 - Some of us do support the site financially already.
Mervyn King expects this quarter’s change in GDP to be positive
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Bank-Of-England-Governor-Mervyn-King-Signals-Signs-Of-British-Economy-Recovery/Article/200910315410007
Well done. This is a big day for the blog/net world.
The LD fig is interesting. Can’t help thinking it will rise once the party gets more publicity during a campaign. (last couple of elections have seen LDs support rise during the campaign as they get mentioned on the TV news because of broadcasting rules etc)
Maybe the 17 per cent figure will sharpen Lab MPs’ minds. But then again they have so far been unable to pluck up the courage.
216 - That ship is weighing anchor though.
206: simple method - click on some of the ads occasionally.
24. Isn’t the Labour/Commie ranting over the BNP one of the most spectacular own goals in British politics?
It is unprecedented for a government to overtly interfer with an independent media in the way that Labour’s Commies have sought to do over the last week.
Labour and the Commies say ‘don’t let the BNP express their views’.
The only people that usually attempt this sort of ban are those that fear the debate, because they think they’ll lose it!
It is Commie sour grapes syndrome. They can’t win the debate so they try and ban it. What begins with banning free speech, ends up with enslaving us all under a Commie dictatorship.
No doubt Labour would cancel the election, if the BNP were to look like winning it as well! If they can harass the BBC and attack free speech, it is a small step to banning elections.
The Lib Dems are saying bring it on. They look impressive by contrast. They convey a party that think they will win the debate. The Conservative are saying bring it on. They are riding high.
All that the Commie huha has done is cede about £10 million of free publicity to the BNP and gurantee BBC Question Time the highest ratings in the history of the programme.
Labour’s Commies (and I didn’t realise Alan Johnson was a Commie until last week) have been humiliated.
‘Government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem.’
220.
That’s good but we should always do a little more. I will start supporting the site and will put some ideas forward that will give you ideas that you could use if you like.
218 me too. You thanked me at the time if that is any help.
Trouble is, you think you can see what is coming, you are worried about it, but you can also see why they will come in and do it. It isn’t what you want in your heart of hearts and yet the best option for stopping it is utterly mired in a death spiral of ineptitude and spite.
Relax, let it happen, hope you were wrong. Labour turnout is heading south, fast.
226 - Well I promise when the Lib Dems get wiped out next year, the profits I make, I’ll be donating 50% of my winnings to Mike for the upkeep of this site.
The PB/Angus Reid poll, although in line with the other two firms announcing their findings today as regards the 17% Tory lead, is nevertheless seriously awry in terms of reporting such a high figure of 17% in the level of level of support for “Others”.
We have seen a steady decline in this figure from all the other pollsters since the European elections. Indeed the two polls earlier today show “Others” as being 11% and 12% respectively. These are very large differences and way outside any margins of error.
Perhaps the key question asked of the respondents varied in some detail or other, for example by mentioning even obliquely, the main “Other” parties by name. It must be difficult to get the balance right as respondents will tend to remember best the names of the last named parties, to the detriment of the 3 major parties. Having said that, come the General Election, voters will be presented with a list of each and every one of the candidates and the parties for which they are standing.
The three polls announced today are bound to have an effect on the betting markets. Surely the ones most affected are those concerning Brown either remaining or not remaining in office until the GE. Trying to consider things from his perspective, it’s difficult to come up with any compelling reasons for him to continue.
He must know that his Premiership has failed irreparably and that by not retiring, in whatever way it might need to be dressed up, he is in danger of causing serious long-lasting damage to his party, resulting in it losing many more seats than might otherwise be the case.
Mike, I’m curious as to whether the field-work for your Angus Reid poll was earlier than for the other polls unveiled tonight. Otherwise I expect we’ll have to look for methodological reasons to explain the large 17% others score in this poll, 5 points higher than in Mori or ICM.
17% would represent about a doubling of the 2005 score for Others.
In 2005, UKIP fielded 475 candidates and the Greens 182. I’d expect both to be a bit higher next time.
225: as I said… they just end up looking foolish.
223 The PB poll might encourage the LD’s to attack Labour. Its what they should have been doing all the time if they had any sense.
163 roygbiv
The “effectiveness” of a Cabinet Minister as a constituency MP is not a measure of them but their constituency staff, who actually do the work.
152 spudgfsh
Not sure whether you mean that UK polls or the national ones for these countries are inappropriate for predicting seats in Scotland/Wales. However, I think there is probably agreement of all the Scots posting here that there is a different political dynamic between England and Scotland (though they overlap to an extent for a UK GE).
The difference between the GB and England only figures in the Ipsos-Mori poll for example are partially explained by the fact that the Scots/Welsh formed 25% of those likely to vote.
150, 158, 162. Although we learned the correct way to fly the flag at Scouts (or Guides in Plato’s case) the asymmetry didn’t necessarily begin with the union of Britain and Ireland. At least one flag hoist at Trafalgar was the same all round, and therefore a useless distress signal if flown upside down:
Trafalgar union jack up for sale
It’s possible, of course, that this was an unauthorised version, stitched together by the bored jack tars.
214 The key point re this MORI survey is that if all voters expressing a certainty to vote of over 60% are included the figures change a bit to Con 41 Lab 29 LibDem 19 - much more in line with YouGov , Comres and Populus.
Has anyone got a list/info on the seats the Lib Dems could realistically take from Labour next year?
228.
That will happen in your dreams but not reality pal!
I’m sceptical about the 17% for Others, but notwithstanding that many congrats to OGH for getting this up and running!
The first PB poll! Congratulations Mike.
226 “That’s good but we should always do a little more”
O’Rly?
The royal ‘we’
’should’ do a little more
Pfft.
And I thought teenagers were meant to be for free thought and rebellion rather than command and control
232 Maggie Thatcher Fan
In order to win over disillusioned Old Labour voters, the Lib Dems have to attack the Tories as well as pointing out the utter failure of Labour.
The trick is to frame the attack in Old Labour language. That’s why the mansion tax was an excellent (electoral) idea, however ill-considered the reality might be.
233: I was just saying that changes in national opinion polls are not a good indicator for regions that are affected by extra dynamics like the snp
[229] - Perhaps the key question asked of the respondents varied in some detail or other, for example by mentioning even obliquely, the main “Other” parties by name. It must be difficult to get the balance right as respondents will tend to remember best the names of the last named parties…
Remember that the Angus Reid poll, like Yougov, is an internet based poll, so the respondents are not asked questions verbally, but have a list of parties to select from.
This is in many respects more realistic - since voters will have a list on the ballot - but there’s a bit of difficulty with, say, the Greens, who stood in less than 3-in-10 seats in 2005. Even though they will choose what they think are their strongest areas, and will probably have more candidates, this is bound to reduce the Green vote, perhaps by about one-third.
Were there supplementary questions asked in this poll, perhaps suggested by Mike himself? I guess all will be revealed when the full details are published later.
240 - Well he really is a commie
http://tinyurl.com/ShockALibDemIsASocialist
Interesting - this poll has pushed down labour and conservatives and bumped up LDs (and others).
Who pays the piper?
Ah I am an old cynic. And we have to keep Mr S on his toes.
PS
Good to have a new poll. Well done.
The results of these three polls look very bad for labour, the implication to me is that after the conference season Tories have 17 point lead and the electorate have made its mind up.
What does looking at real polls tell us ….
In 1997 Blair had 43% - can we expect Tories to go any higher? Possible but unlikely. Tories had 31%, could Labour go any lower - possible.
In 2005 Labour had 35% - Could they go any higher? Unlikely. Tories had 32% Could Labour go any higher than this? Unlikely.
In 2001 Labour got 41% and Tories 32%.
I would normally say that LDs must fall below 2005 (22%), but yet again we have an unpopular war for them to exploit - but is it likely they will go better than 2005 - unlikely.
In 2001 they got 18%; in 1997 they got 17%.
If LDs are to get to 22%+ again (and bring Labour down below 30) it must surely be at the expense of labour but they seem incapable of mounting an attack in that direction.
So
Simply looking at recent electoral history tells me that the Tories are unlikely to get more than 43 and Labour are unlikely to go below 30.
A squeeze on others might well push up both and leave the margin at 13%.
LDs 18.
It also seems to me that the big risk is for labour to under perform - maybe down to 28% as in ‘83.
My prediction is 43-30-18. Baxtered =82. Plausible.
177 - ‘Vulnerable seats list?’ etc.
Go here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
Check the left column, ‘Make your own prediction’, then see the vulnerable seats. Huge fun. Usual caveats apply.
245 - Top Libdem aged 17?? Actually, probably yes….
James Burdett is probably quite right, changing leader again will smack of desperation and will likely have a minus poll effect !
Basically Labour it’s you and not your leader. We are all absolutely sick to the back teeth of your useless corrupt party, that has morally, socially and financially bankrupt this country…
As a loyal Cameroon I am delighted with tonight’s 17 point leads. But what the PB poll really seems to indicate is a collapse of confidence in the main parties and flight to others. It’s definitely a post expenses poll. The public are obviously in revolt. The last thing we need is more negative politics of sneer, smear and spin.
If this story is remotely true the the US is effectively demanding we come under the governance of France and Germany for the convenience of American foreign policy.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/20/tories-eu-allies-us-pressure
This is wrong on so many levels and just shows how far the left in this country have sunk that the problem they see is not international interference but that the Tories might just not subjugate the British people to Obama’s whim.
245. TSE.
From the comments:
Anonymous said…
Irfan is only a top Lib Dem in the sense that a lot of Lib Dems want to top him.
236
See 247. The party change also shows.
Usual caveats apply.
250 I think thats Labour’s policy, to attempt to drag politics so far into the gutter as to deny the Conservatives a majority. Difficult to explain Brown’s expenses strategy otherwise, unless of course Brown is a complete donut. It could easily be either or a combination of the two.
252 - Yes, that one amused me too.
251. How can I out this politely? The Yanks should but the hell out of our affairs!
251 - As someone once (sorry can’t remember whom) No, No, No!
251 this quote is frankly astonishing
“European diplomats said Clinton believed it would be unwise to try to overturn the Lisbon treaty in the unlikely event that it has not been ratified by the time the Tories come to power. She is also understood to believe that it would also be unwise for a Tory government to try to undo earlier EU treaties”.
This kind of nonsense might have worked with Blair and Brown but Cameron needs to start distancing us from the “special relationship” as the only way it appears to be special is in the they are the masters and we are the slaves type way.
[251] - …the US is effectively demanding we come under the governance of France and Germany for the convenience of American foreign policy.
That’s one way of reading it. An alternative would cast the UK as American fifth columnists, sent to infiltrate the EU and undermine it from within. We’re not supposed to go off and throw a sulk!
258 - Are we sure these sources arent the same as the ones who said Obama thought Cameron was a lightweight?
255 - Is that Benitez’s last game?
258 - Cameron isn’t going to unpick anything
257 - Perhaps not the best analogy, bearing in mind what happend a few days later (but we’ll let you off being but a nipper then).
254. Agree. Brown would rather destroy all confidence in politics that witness a victory for Cameron.
This should be interesting
The BBC is to include BNP supporters in the audience for Thursday’scontroversial edition of Question Time when the party’s leader, Nick Griffin, will become the first far-right politician to appear on the programme.
Hundreds of party members are understood to have applied to watch the edition when it is filmed at BBC Television Centre in west London. A source said a number would be vetted and allowed to take part.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/20/bnp-question-time-studio-audience
I do find the US State Department an odd institution in recommending things to other countries that would have most of the states of the Union up in arms.
261 - “Cameron isn’t going to unpick anything”
Well done, you’ve learnt his name at last, there’s a clever boy.
261 - No, not Benitez’s last game. The Rafatollah stays.
258. Special Relationship is a load of cr*p. Has been for years.
232 The Lib Dems don’t have any sense.
In British Westminster politics we have no form of PR unlike most countries which have coalitions; governments are nearly always minority governments. As time has gone by Labour, and indeed the Tories, have built their majorities on the support of an increasingly small number of votes. If a government is in power for a long time, the majority turn on the government and eject them in a mighty spasm; this happened to Major in 1997 of course. But Labour is in a far more perilous situation; since 2005 they have governed Britain with only 35% of the votes - given the turnout only 22% of the whole electorate; both the lowest on record. There is a more than 50% chance that Labour will be fatally wounded in 2010 and completely destroyed in 2014. Anyone with any feel for history would understand the huge opportunity the Lib Dems have. But they won’t. Labour will be back. If there was a film about the Lib Dems it would be called ‘Dumb and Dumber and Lib Dems’.
251. Most Americans have a very hazy idea of European political geography.
Hillary Clinton likes the idea of herself, Cherie, Bill and Tony sorting the world out over a dinner, the two royalties of the two continents. Democracy is all that stands in her way.
262 - Yes, not the best analogy. But my sentiments still stand.
Not to convinced by this poll. Anyway.
If and when Labour are routed next year, I think people will look back and conclude that it was Brown’s long Chancellorship that did for them. NOT because of the mistakes that were made, of which there were surely many, but because with Brown’s credibility as PM was so dependent on maintaining the fiction of his previous job.
Contrary to many i think the Govt has a good story to tell about the recession. I don’t think that it is impossible that Alistair Darling (no sniggering at the back) could go down as one of the greatest Chancellors of all time. I think many people don’t realise how lucky we were to have him at the height of the banking crisis.
But whereas they had a chance to align themselves with the British people in recognising that mistakes were made and they got carried away in a world of cheap credit, and that a new rhetoric of belt-tightening was appropriate, Brown presented an impassable obstacle. So the language of spend, spend, spend remained (even when the reality was slightly different) and their future economic plans just sounded uncredible.
271 - And most laudible sentiments they are too.
261 Back Liverpool on Sunday. They will pull one out against Utd to keep the fans happy for a few months and save Benitez’s neck!
268 GIN
I don’t think the Special Relationship is a load of cr*p.
The amount we get out in intelligence alone is probably worth its weight. It is the special relationship that enables Britain to punch above its economic weight on the world stage.
The US position on the EU is perfectly rational. The Conservative position on the EU is perfectly rational too.
Afghanistan should have hammered home to Obama just how important Britain is to NATO and to America. If he doesn’t understand this, it reflects badly on him. That importance will not diminish in the slightest if Britain elects a Conservative government - regardless of whether the Conservatives are in the EPP or not.
272. I broadly agree. Labour could have gained some advantage from the 2007/ ongoing economic collapse if they’d shown some willingness to admit to mistakes.
But of course those mistakes would have been Gordon Brown’s mistakes, and therefore, under the present regime, they can’t have happened.
Christ on a bike. Two weeks in a row, and I agree with Simon Heffer. I’ll be back shortly, to make sure the world hasn’t ended
Tories must be wary of replacing Labour’s cronies with their own
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/6390265/Tories-must-be-wary-of-replacing-Labours-cronies-with-their-own.html
The only think thats “special” about the “special relationship” is that one partner behaves like a needy stalker, whilst the other partner treats their so called friend more like a dockside hooker!
Its about time our politicians woke up and smelt the coffee.
259 and all others commenting on the Guardian Clinton/Hague/EU piece
Don’t get your knickers in such a twist. This is just the normal tenor of political debate over here. The US interest is, as Tim who like zebras said, is for a strong UK inside Europe as its fifth column. So long as the Tories can present their policies as strengthening the EU as an institution by walking it back from the worst idiocies of Lisbon, and strengthening the UK’s role within it (they want out money), then the US will chill.
The Jewish lobby is not monolithic in the US, and it does not represent US policy
Uk polling has a commentary on the PB poll
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk
268 sure in fact it was Churchill’s total invention from day one.
279 Sure that is in the US’s interest, not in the UK’s, and as everyone knows it is Britain’s job to be a fifth column in the EU Britain also gets screwed by the EU. Now much as I Love yanks I fail to see why the British should be constantly screwed just to serve your national interest.
275. And we want to punch above our weight on the world stage because….???
I mean, I understand what arrogant politicians get out of strutting the world stage, but my life is made better by this because…???
279 - The Jewish lobby is not monolithic in the US, and it does not represent US policy
Of course that is correct.
However Hague will struggle to find any groups that support his accomodation with the extreme right in Europe.
And for the Tories, well what have they to gain by their new group?
As the article says
An American official, asked about the consequences for the US and about the far-right links, said: “I do not see any upsides in the new grouping. I can only see downsides. In life it is normally best to do things when they have an upside.”
You have to wonder at the gall of Liam Byrne
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6388083/Liam-Byrne-David-Cameron-should-apologise-for-describing-Britain-as-broken.html
But, he went on, the project for the next government was to reduce inequality, which continued to persist, adding: “Britain isn’t broken. But it is still unequal.
Inequality has risen under this government and not just in the recession.
285 - Further to that point, if British society isn’t broken why has the number of applications to take children into care risen by 47% in three months?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8317361.stm
Louis Susman, the US Ambassador to London, is also understood to have expressed alarm about the “direction of travel” of a party widely expected to take power after the next election.
Privately, he has suggested that the new alliance in the European Parliament forged by Mr Cameron with right-wing parties linked to anti-Semitism will diminish any Conservative Government’s ability to wield influence in Brussels.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6883075.ece
284 The absolute best reason to not be Euro and US submissives is because Tim wants us to. In his loony Internationalist world he is sacrificing the British people on the wonderful alter of internattionalism. In fact in reality we have been getting screwed by both the US and the EU for years.
284. I’ve said it before. The EU Parlaiment is full of nutters on all sides. If we pulled out of this mad idea we wouldn’t have to sit with any of these fruitcakes - And all those odd British MEP’s could be thrown out of their respective party’s as well.
286 - Baby P.
287 Good point Tim the US doesn’t want us to do something as it is not in their national interest, well I am sold.
286 - As a response to the BabyP and Birmingham cases I’d have thought.
A swing of the pendulum.
205 “If I were coordinating the election campaign for the Conservatives I’d start thinking about taking big risks”
I’d say the exact opposite. The best chance Tories have got of crippling ZNL for a long time is if they hold onto their own voters and centre-floaters while keeping the working classes lulled into staying at home.
Norman Baker has tabled a Parliamentary Question about the cost of Sir Thomas Legg’s review
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6388523/MPs-expenses-Sir-Thomas-Leggs-own-spending-questioned.html
This is going to end in disaster.
284. Tedious tim: And for the Tories, well what have they to gain by their new group?
Answered many times before.
287
What influence would this be?
To be stitched up to funding the CAP, have our fishing rights auctioned and to have a bureaucracy steamroller over our national interest ?
We can happily have less ” influence ” on that basis
’sent to infiltrate the EU and undermine it from within’
We haven’t done a very good job, then. Since we joined it has got bigger, more powerful, more anti-American.
The US authorities should be careful what they wish for re. the EU.
286 James Burdett
If you are talking about Britain, why are you referring data that applies only to England?
286 - that’s easy - it’s because social sevices depts have been panicked into excessive caution By BabyP.
296 - The Tories new far right allies are against reforming the CAP.
283. “I mean, I understand what arrogant politicians get out of strutting the world stage, but my life is made better by this because…???”
The political side is just fluff, forget about Obama and Brown. The deeper more important side is military, technology and intelligence cooperation that goes beyond NATO or other US bilateral relationships. There is no other country that the US shares such things with to the degree they do with Britain. The UK’s relationship with Europe is not about to change that.
290, 292 - Would seem a bizarre thing to do in those circumstances.
296 Exactly, the Guardian, Tim, Labour, Obama/clinton’s argument appears to be that we will lose influence in Brussell’s most normal Beritish people will just laugh at that statement.
284 You missed a bit out.
An American official, known to be an arse, asked about the consequences for the US and about the far-right links, said: “I do not see any upsides in the new grouping. I can only see downsides. In life it is normally best to do things when they have an upside.”
297 Another arse.
Why you think the opinions of two American office holders are worth diddly squat on this issue is beyond me.
299 - Its a difficult call at the best of times and judging whether it is excessive now is a bit hasty.
Getting kids out of abusive families and adopted quickly is surely correct.
301. Well thats fine. But how does “military, technology and intelligence cooperation” improve my life or that of the majority of normal British people?
294… but this was Gordon’s idea and his appointment. He’s wasted another million quid has he?
303. It’s just a repetition of the same tedious mantra the FO comes out with over and over again. An empty and meaningless formulation masking self-interested motives.
300
so what most europeans are. They can fund it themselves instead of sending us the bill.
‘Church Disunited’
- The Vatican’s new structure by which Anglicans may enter into communion with Rome undermines the authority of the Archbishop of Canterbury
The Church of England’s witness to the life of the nation is a valued and historic civic resource. Its position has been dangerously weakened.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6882968.ece
302. There are adoption targets to meet, you know.
310. Stuart what has this theological burbling got to do with politics or betting?
287 - do you really not remember Britain getting stiched up over our rebate?
Actually, your not dim, you do remember but it doesn’t suit you to mention it
311 - can’t they just fiddle the figures?
Seems to be the way it works in NHS, Schooling and now prisons.
Lets not even go near the crime figures……
306. You aren’t writing in German or Russian.
This is a great polling development, Mike. Exciting stuff. Congratulations!
If a regular Angus Reid Strategies poll is to become a true feature, it must be abbreviated.
An unfortunate shortening is of course ‘Ars’, which just won’t do! Should it do a ComRes/YouGov and be ‘AngusRead’, or maybe just ‘Read’? Or, like ICM, ‘ARS’?
314. Well you could consider this a kind of fiddling of the figures, couldn’t you?
317 - ah, normal Liebour service is resumed then
You have to wonder what the rest of the world is being told about Britain - when you have Miliband meeting them…
The Guardian seems to have become infected with the same Euromonomania as we see from multiple Ukippers on blogs. Daily articles for weeks on an issue of minor interest to most and from an extremist standpoint, and just as monotonous.
As for comments from the US Ambassador, Democrat appointed US envoys are famously ill informed especially when it comes to the Conservative Party and its direction.
Ah, doesn’t it look good?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
Angus Reid/Political Betting 2009-10-16 40 23 20 17
ANECDOTE ALERT
Drinks with lefty friends (again! why don’t I know any Tories!??). Last week, when I detected a certain F*ck Tory Boy Osborne chutzpah, tonight it was different: just shamefaced defeatism.
My lefty friends were whingeing about the Royal Mail, then they got onto Thatch, and all her Terrible Works, and then I pointed out that the Left has now been in power for twelve years, and they have FCKED everything up, and now it was the turn of the right, maybe?
They did not demur. Indeed they blushed, and looked at the ground.
Verdict: the left has lost the Will to win. They know and accept this government has been a disaster. They anticipate the verdict of history.
Endex.
319 Politics Home Insider has a nice quote highlighted in their insider view of the Milibands
Contempt for David?
“David should run Ed’s campaign”, said one left-aligned panellist, whilst one insider added, “You have no idea what contempt is felt for David, not least in the foreign diplomatic corps in London.”
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/the_brotherhood_eds_ahead.html
‘Tory anger at Cameron’s all-women shortlists’
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23758828-cameron-well-have-women-only-shortlists-before-election.do
Right chaps and lady chaps we need a decent acronym for Mike’s new tool. Didn’t he have an operation recently ??? …. hhmmm …. beside the point. We can’t have Angus Reid Strategies - ARS - far too close to own my dear ARSE.
How’s about Smithson Angus Reid Strategies - SARS - lethal polling for political anoraks
WRT the Obama administration’s dismay at the prospect of a British government standing up for British interests - well, my heart bleeds purple piss.
316 seth.
325 - How about, Mike’s Angus Reid’s Strategies - MARS’s - Polling that’s literally out of this world!
Well, we could use PARS - sets the standard for others to meet?
Not a murmur on sky about any of these 3 polls!
AngRie Betty?
328/329. POlitical Betting Angus Reid - POBAR - Mike Smithson - The Lord High Everything Else !!
SeanT
“My lefty friends were whingeing about the Royal Mail”
In what way?
Blaming the union, blaming the management, blaming Mandelson?
The Royal Mail seesm to be a sort of totem for many Labour supporters, HenryG for example, I wonder what damage will be done in a union v government scenario with Mandelson authorising the recruitment of strikebreakers.
324 - I do wonder how much of this is a threat to get a move on and how seriously he intends to go through with it. There are safe seats, and indeed marginals, which are dragging their feet. Surely if they have picked a candidate by the end of January that’s fine and dandy? And it’s not a broad thing even if it does happen - it’s a minority of seats.
I was a member of an association which didn’t pick its candidate for 2 years because the Chairman wanted to pack the selection board with sufficient people to vote for his nephew. It wouldn’t surprise me if that sort of thing happens elsewhere.
I’m thinking it will eventually end up as ‘Reid’.
Angus Reid Strategies - is too long.
Angus Reid - could be mistaken as a person.
AngusReid - too pretentious
ARS - unfortunate and too obscure.
‘Reid’ I reckon will prevail!
ARBS = Angus Reid Betting Strategies?
Angus Reid Mike Smithson - ARMS - Reaches the parts other polls cannot find ??
‘The lonely Tory in the village’
It appears that the blue-rinse brigade are already looking at ways of making sure the man fellow party members know as Fluffy DOESN’T become their voice north of the border.
Many leading Tories are said not to rate Mundell as ministerial material. Others disagree and reckon he’s not even curtain material.
Their argument is that he wouldn’t be sharp enough to take on wee Alex Salmond.
And the word is that they’re already thinking about promoting one of their 16 MSPs into the Lords and making them Scottish Secretary instead. Mundell’s laughing off these claims, naturally. But inside, he must be screaming - and little wonder.
I mean, imagine being the only Tory in the village and STILL not being thought of highly enough to be named as its idiot.
A real left hook to the chin, that one. If they had chins.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/billleckie/2690294/Bill-Leckie-column.html
Gusset?
Mike’s Gusset to be a precise.
Let’s examine the implications of the deficit in Mike’s Gusset.
Something pithy like
The Angus Reid Strategies Monthly Polling Report In Conjunction
322. SeanT.
You don’t know any Tories because you are not really one yourself. You’re really a liberati, literati, liberal elitist, semi-intellectual who enjoys winding your slightly more conventional liberati, literati, liberal elitist, semi-intellectual mates up by going off on one and delivering half baked, politically incorrect bon mots with a certain panache. You gave yourself away on Iraq - the underlying liberal in you was horrified. Your swinging commitment to Cameron is not because you suspect him of being a ‘Gaylording Ponceyboots’ (i.e. liberal), but really that you secretly worry, like all liberals, that he is at heart a kneejerk rightwing nutter, with too many links to strange far right parties. You always have protested just a bit too hard Sean
334 Its about time the position for the next GE was clear. I am sorting out District Election in 2011 now.
Newsnight: Gabble McShane on sex slaves…
341.Something pithy like
The Angus Reid Strategies Monthly Polling Report In Conjunction With The Non-Affiliated Betting Site Of Mike Smithson, Political Betting
hit enter too soon
335. It can’t be ARS - Jack W might sue.
345 dyed. Should have hit delete first !!
If they all show a Tory lead, then Angus Herd.
Are there any stirrings of good news to be found in Mike’s Gusset?
AveIT-Ars
Would seem appropriate for bloggers, geeks and watford fans
Denis McShane. RIP.
I see that no one has gone for the obvious combination name - The Mike Reid Poll.
272 Alex. How can “one of the greatest chancellors of all time” allow his name to be associated with “future economic plans that just sound incredible”? Talk sense - he either believes them himself(stupid)or cannot bring himself to tell the truth(cowardly), hardly attributes of a great chancellor.
345 Angus Reid Strategies Excellent Monthly Poll
ARSE MP
348 If?
Night all
Dennis McShane being battered now on Newsnight. Nice.
347 quiet, Old man
354 - That might lead to confusion with all those MP’s that are ARSE’s.
And with Jack W’s Arse too
Frankly, if the US are so concerned about having a voice in the EU, they can just apply to join themselves.
I’ve migrated from a strongly pro-EU position (around early nineties to about 2001-ish) to agnostic (2001-ish to 2004-ish) to EU-sceptic-but-pro-reform. With the hysteria over the ECR and the Lisbon Treaty shenanigans, I’m not far off of joining the Better-Off-Out camp.
And having spoken to family and friends who’ve raised the same issue again and again (referendums not given, the Irish being made to vote again to get it right and the rumours of President Blair), I wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t an increasing tendency in that to the population. My Mum never gets worked up over politics, but she was downright angry over the EU issue when she visited this weekend.
The EU-philes are generating an awful lot of resistance with their forcing the pace over the wishes of the populace (and if they don’t think they’re forcing it over the wishes of the populace, they’re free to offer a referendum).
BTW, congrats on the poll Mike. More of the same please…
Gus Reid’s Lubba Lotta Dave-O-Meter
who is picking on gabble?
358 Yes, it could be a social comment as well as a measure of opinion
the look of that woman at mcshane
I see Anthony Wells has already included the new pollster in his list of results - fast work! What does the new logo represent?
364 And Paxo too! Classic scrap…
362. Paxman and the Happy Hooker.
A proper spanking for Gabble-McShane. Nasty.
One thing I need to ask, these 3 polls showing a 17% means we’re heading for a hung parliament?
338 Why not appoint Alec Salmond Secretary of State for Scotland?
Surely it’s about time the Scottish and Welsh departments were wound up, anyway.
#99 Every chance Darling will lose his seat. Labour came third in the Euros. SNP won with Tories close second. Both SNP and Tories fighting hard with no sign of Labour. SNP will push this on a stop the Tories ticket and Tories are running with only they can form the next government. Both parties obviously think Darling is going out.
ARPR
Why was Gabble ranting and raving at the end of the Newsnight interview? Was he in a mood because of todays terrible polls? Or was it something else?
369 elagabalus
I’ll take transferring the remaining powers of the SoS for Scotland to whoever is First Minister, as part of the process. It’s difficult to see why the taxpayer should fund what are simply propaganda posts any longer. Cameron wants to roll back the state - seems a reasonable place to start.
Gabble is obviously in some difficulty; he can happily ignore polls in the papers, because we all know we shouldn’t trust what we read in the papers - but what about a new internet-produced poll? He hasn’t got a line on that yet…
Without insulting OGH too much I hope, I always kind of imagine Gabble as a ‘mini-me’ version of the great Smithson.
Time for bed…
372. I agree. Make the SoS for Scotland constitutionally the same as the First Minister. Saves money, makes it more logical. Done.
This also folds Scotland affectionately but not smotheringly into the Union.
On topic, congratulations to Mike for this major step not just for his site but for online politics in the UK. Also for Angus Reid Strategies polling.
As for the figures, the 17% for Others is obviously out of line with the other pollsters - that doesn’t make it wrong, especially having just had another bout of expenses in the papers. Having said that, I suspect it probably is a bit on the high side, especially UKIP at 5%. The point about their coverage mentioned earlier is very valid. That won’t affect the SNP or Plaid at all and might not affect UKIP or the BNP much (if UKIP can afford to stand 500 candidates; the BNP will stand in areas where they’re already strong so don’t need so many), the Greens on the other hand could be more badly affected.
Three high-teen scores on the same night from different pollsters is a heck of a good result for the Tories and the absolute figures are not at all bad for the Lib Dems. High teens or twenty isn’t going to break the mould but nor is it the precursor of meltdown.
374 - No, that’s Wage Slave
SKY referrring to two polls giving Labour 17% leads tonight.
Get with the news, SKY!!!!
I wonder which poor sap had the task of informing dear old Gordon of tonight’s proceedings…?
I mean, how do you sandwich a 17 point deficit between two other 17 point deficits and get away with it?
378 nice, 17% Labour leads????!
Would be a different mood in here were that the case…
Labour 17% leads? Really?
Lefites up and down the country will be having heart attacks in the excitment!
378 Marquee Mark
I don’t think Murdoch and his minions have huge affection for blogs…
375 Sean T
LOL. That’s been tried and failed. We’ll have the affection of good friends for each other, but your more intimate desires we’ll gently repulse.
Two Labour luvvies doing the SKY Newspaper review.
378 There’s evidently a good deal of electoral volatility, out there.
371. And to think this man McShane was a Minister not so long ago. Most likely he will be amongst the rump of Labour MPs remaining on which to build the Party’s future. A truly pathetic performance summarised by the prostitutes’ representative saying: “I thought you had come onto the programme to apologise for using inaccurate figures.”
MPs are to be offered a pay rise to make up for a loss of income from expenses claims under plans drawn up by Gordon Brown to quell a growing back-bench rebellion.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6391262/MPs-expenses-pay-rise-for-MPs-to-stop-rebellion.html
Wonderful
384. Give that a miss then.
381. Gordon would be round the palace, banging on the door to wake the Queen.
386. I didn’t see the interview except for about the last minute when Gabble Mcshane was ranting and raving and looking like he was about to burst a blood vessel. Clearly he’s upset about something…
Sounds like we have missed tonight’s entertainment having skipped Newsnight.
I’d forgotten McShane existed.
378 etc: Er yes…you spotted the deliferate mistale then!
384 Baroness Billingham on SKY paper review. Life is probably too short…but the temptation to hear what the mad bat will say is quite strong.
392 When she is on with Davies it is hard to know who is playing the straight men.
Since I live by Guardain ICM I must die by it.I think the latest figures are very poor for the lib dems.Compared to the last Guardian ICM the figures are Con -1,Lab +1.Lib -1,oth +1.
The Lib Dems have gaineded nothing from their confernce,and you might have expected some of the flak from expenses to help them a little.They are not making an impact in the air war and need to develop a compelling narrative.
The chance of ovetaking labour is fading with a gap of 9% now.
I expect by end late November th etorie sto fall back towards 42,So, Lib dems might get back to 19% but need to get back in the picture.
One word, swingback
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Front-Pages-Of-The-National-Newspapers-On-Wednesday-October-21-2009/Media-Gallery/200910315410096?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15410096_The_Front_Pages_Of_The_National_Newspapers_On_Wednesday%2C_October_21%2C_2009
I notice the Mirror’s front page.
Was the ’slur’ on our Generals tyo call tthem ‘Tory’?
394 - Their anti-Tory rhetoric is killing them. They should be attacking the dying government rather than the next one.
one word,clegg
387. From that piece this is a lovely angle
‘Labour MPs are angry that they will be forced to sack wives or husbands, who work for as little as £16,000 a year, in order to comply with the new rules.’
Erm I thought Lady Smith’s popular hubby trousered circa 40k a year working for her?
394 Perhaps it was a mistake to spend their entire conference attacking the Tories and dreaming up ‘mansion’ taxes to appeal to Labour’s core vote: George’s speech has sent them home again never to return.
Laurel and Hardy on SKY News in a minute.
396. Re The Sun’s headline. What I’d like to know about these hugely obese people that are confined to bed is where they are getting the grotesque amounts of food from that they eat? Clearly someone must be going out to get their food and bringing it back to them/or making if for them? Should these people not be charged with some form of neglect? I mean, everyone has free will, but if I had someone sitting in front of me that was so fat they couldn’t get out of bed I’d go and make them a salad, not go and buy a bag of chips for them….
Telegraph: 7p tax rise and VAT on food needed to balance the books.
403. Saw that. VAT on food. Can you imagine the fun a Labour opposition will have with that!
402 - On sky news, they showed the man receivingt the food via asda’s home delivery.
And that he lives alone. But has some carers.
404 - The tories would be able to blame Labour surely?
404 - It’s probably in response to the man on The Sun’s front page
Gabble? McShane? Prostitutes? Have I missed something?
405. Oh, bang goes my theory then.
407.
408 - Yes, it’ll be on the BBC iplayer by tomorrow morning
408 Yes. Sex slaves and Jacqui Smith.
I see davies trying to smear the tories and can some one tell me why they have baroness billingham on,she got a relation working at sky.
I was lobbied this evening by a senior Tory (not a grandee) who suggested a cross-party rebellion if Kelly proposes drastic changes without a long transition.
Without wanting to fatist. How on earth do you find clothes if you weigh 70stones?
402 Salad? I don’t think it’s in some people’s vocabulary.
Some friends of mine expressed surprise that I often had salad for my supper rather than a “proper” meal like lasagna, pizza or curry.
408. We suspect arch Labour spinner Gabble of being Denis Mcshane. But we’ve never been able to prove it (the big give away for me was those 5 lap tops in three years that he claimed for, but anyway I digress) Anyway, he was on Newsnight tonight having a debate with Paxman and a hooker. I only saw the final minute where he was ranting and raving and looking VERY upset about something. Thats all I can tell you.
413 Nick, you obviously have “Trouble” written all over you!
415 Apologies, that should be lasagne (one lasagna wouldn’t make much of a meal, much as one spaghetto wouldn’t either).
412. Its not a representative panel but then I think they have ywo right wingers sometimes.
Isn’t the UK Parliament a wonderful place?
http://order-order.com/2009/10/20/rennard-flipped-main-residence-2007-clerk-no-definition-of-main-address/
413. What did you say NPMP?
414 I think he stays in bed.
I assume somebody must make his clothes?
422 - Poor sod.
Anyone in a rebellion to protect troughing might as well stand down.
414 “How on earth do you find clothes if you weigh 70stones?”
He obviously has some serious clout at M&S - and gets them to tailor the limited edition range to fit…
Or maybe it has the £3,500 suits…
Now this seems a good idea. To stop MPs stealing money - we’ll just give it to them. Broken Britain indeed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6391262/MPs-expenses-pay-rise-for-MPs-to-stop-rebellion.html
426 - As someone who has bought a very expensive suit today, I got to tell you buying clothes when you’re putting on weight is no fun.
Is it sad, that my only erotic experience in the last 3months was todays trouser fitting?
Re 416. Oh and as has already been noted as Paxman closed the interview the look the hooker gave him was brilliant. If looks could kill poor Gab’s would be stone dead!
399 ‘Labour MPs are angry that they will be forced to sack wives or husbands, who work for as little as £16,000 a year, in order to comply with the new rules.’
Indeed, from experience I really would be interested to see how many are on the 16k pay scale…
376 David H - Certainly right about the ‘Others’.
It could be that we are seeing fallout from the expenses scandal which hasn’t (for some reason) been picked up by the other polls. Or could it be that the point I raised at 65 has distorted things? The party you ’support’ is not necessarily the party you’ll vote for.
If it has over-estimated Others, then the most striking thing about the new poll is how good it is for the LibDems, once you reallocate Others to the main parties.
Apparently the fieldwork for this poll was essentially the same as for the Sunday Times YouGov poll. Which is the rogue?
431 - The Yougov one, more than likely, as you have 2 other polls showing 17% leads.
27 Maybe we should pay MP’s nothing - just have a massive room full of cash at The Treasury, and let them just wander off with big wodges of cash. No questions asked. I mean, given the monstrous numbers for the national debt, who would ever know??
428. I’ve gone the other way this summer. Dropped from a size 36 to a 32. Had a bout of illness earlier in the year and have *so far* managed to keep the weight off with exercise and healthy eating.
434 - I’ve had to buy my first ever size 34 trouser today.
My wait has gone up around the same time as the other half got pregnant. She’s making me eat more than she does.
435 = Wait = Weight.
432 But ComRes showed a 12% lead - as did MORI when account is taken of all voters who are 60+% likely to vote.
Billingham and Davies smearing for Labour.
433 Marquee Mark
I see you are a Conservative. You want no change to previous practice.
435. Fattening you up for the arrival? Interesting. Maybe she wants you to put on some size and have plenty of reserve energy for all those night feeds you be doing?
439 I’d actually be saving the cost of having the Fees Office!
436 The Screaming Eagles
You were right the first time. Freud will out!
437. Basically we need more polls! I don’t think they’ll be many more this month though, unfortunately.
437 But Mori don’t weight by past vote which tends to strongly favour Labour - hence the voting certainty strictness which pulls it back a bit; it is their way of adjusting.
You are trying to cherry pick parts of polls and apply them to to others.
Wouldn’t pass the BPC tests!
415 “Salad? I don’t think it’s in some people’s vocabulary.”
Lettuce is green water.
443 - I think we’ll have the YouGov in the Telegraph at the end of next week, will be interesting to see what that shows.
I expect tomorrow to be fun, I think we’ll have a PMQ’s dominated by the economy.
“If a General Election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?”
Surely this key question is not precisely the same as the corresponding question asked by the other pollsters. Presumably it could be the case that this would result in “Others” being overstated, since the likes of UKIP, BNP, Greens and Nationalists would not be represented in every constituency. Is it possible to re-phrase the question in such a way so as to eliminate or at least reduce what appears to be an error factor?
437 - I think, if take apart every polling methodology, we’ll find flaws.
The way to look at it, even under the best circumstances, Labour still trail the Tories by around 12%.
445 Some of it has flavour (Little Gem for example) and then there are the tastier salad greens such as watercress and rocket.
446. Yes, we’ve still got that one. And one more ComRes, I think?
At some point soon, I imagine we’ll get an ICM/Sunday Telegraph as well?
446 The Screaming Eagles
I doubt it. The economic numbers don’t come out till Friday.
I expect Cameron to lead on the postal strike. Possibly questions on expenses too.
Don’t forget the Sheerman/Balls show as an aperitif at 9:30 either…
444 No - I have never trusted MORI’s headline 100% certainty to vote figures and have said so on earlier threads. Did not believe last month’s 36 - 24 -25 figures - and find this months data equally unconvincing.
I love salads. My dad always grew lettuce, tomaotes, cucumbers, etc…. so I was brought up with that kind of food. And fresh veg like peas, runner beans, cabbages, potatoes etc…. You can’t beat healthy fruit and veg.
450 - Looking at UK polling report the last ICM/SUnday Telegraph poll was in May! Surely not
I think we’re also due a ComRes/Indy one next week too.
451 - I think Cameron may well use the PSBR figures that were released today
446 I think we’ll have a PMQ’s dominated by the economy.
Frankly it’s not before time. Cameron really needs to lift his game. He hasn’t had an outright win against Brown at PMQs for a very long time and he appears to studiously avoid asking questions about the economy, it’s as if he knows he can’t cope against Brown. He badly needs to show that he can.
453 It does however fit with two other polls tonight including ICM which has a great track record.
I suspect you are nursing a broken heart.
453 justin
I agree to some extent - I think MORI is a respectable pollster, with headline intention figures usually within the MoE - but they have deliberately designed their weighting in such a way as to accentuate swings. This gives them more media play.
Nevertheless, they are more useful than the other pollsters in determining momentum. Trends and changes are clearer with Ipsos-MORI than with any other pollster.
457. The onyl returned back to the Commons last week?
Spellings going, my signal to get some sleep.
Night all.
458 Not at all! Last voted Labour at a General Election in 1992. Will certainly not do so next time.
457. Surely it’s not that long since one of those tonkings? The 3 months PMQs holiday might mean it just feels like a v long time?
453 - My biggest qualm is, any pollster that can show a swing of 7% in a month, must surely have some flaws, which is what the IPSOS/MORI had today.
457. I disagree Peter. Polling gives Cameron and Osborne a lead on the economy, especially in the latest ICM.
457 - Cameron has often rattled Brown into making ludicrus statements when he’s questioned Brown on the economy at PMQ’s
Have you forgotten
“We not only saved the world”
And the “0% increase”
464 The Screaming Eagles
But remember that the first poll was taken in conference season.
We’ve had wall to wall Tories on this thread - it would have been interesting to hear the views of a few Labour supporters.
468 … especially as regards whether or not Brown will be forced out/will carry on.
459 Wibbler,
I don’t think MORI’s September figures gave us a trend at all. No other pollster put the Tories as low as 36% or placed Labour in 3rd place!
468 - They only come on when Brown has ‘narrowed the gap’ to about ten points.
467 - That’s true.
I think, Mike was right, the most accurate polls will be the ones a couple of weeks after the end of the conference season.
So will be interesting to see what the YouGov in the Telegraph will show.
And boo to Liverpool for conceding a second when I looked like collecting on a very nice draw bet
The Guardian article on the Clinton-Hague meeting and US attitudes to Tory alliances and policies in the EU is a typical piece of special interest pleading rather than an objective assessment of US foreign policy.
Obama and Clinton want to distance themselves from the Bush administration’s attitude to ‘old Europe’ and to repair some of bridges damaged in the Iraq war. This may involve demonstrating to Sarkozy and Merkel that France and Germany are as important to Obama and Clinton as Britain, whoever occupies Downing Street.
However, the State Department and CIA are not deluded. They know that a single European state with one voice on foreign policy and defence is a long-term goal rather than a current reality. Supporting the aspirations of the EU may bring Obama closer to continental Europe, but it should be seen as both a short term tactic and a very long term goal. In the medium term the US will understand that Europe is divided and divisible and that its strongest allies have not changed from those of the twentieth century.
The main continuing interest of the US in Europe is the political stability of Central and Eastern Europe: the consolidation and stabilisation of the territories gained through the end of the cold war and expansion of these gains eastwards. The EU will be seen as a major but not the only instrument of this policy. A military solution was need in the Balkans and may yet be needed elsewhere.
Courting Russia will be as important to the US in achieving its goals. America will also want to cover its options by not only relying on the EU. If it sees the central European countries forming political alliances with Britain within the EU it will listen very carefully behind closed doors.
In this context, ‘public opposition’ to the Cameron-Hague position on Europe is merely a short-term device for the US to demonstrate its pro EU sympathies and accelerate a rapprochement with Sarkozy and Merkel.
Cameron and Hague have taken a risk and have made compromises by allying with the ECR in the EU parliament. So far it is a fragile, young and small alliance and may not grow to maturity. But it is an alliance based on solid democratic principles with real geo-political support. Central and Eastern Europe have been squeezed by its two big neighbours, Germany and Russia, too often in their histories. Allying with Anglo-Saxon interests and power is a sensible strategy. This is understood by Obama as much as it is by Cameron and Klaus.
Anti-semitism and Nazi apologism is not the issue. An irritant maybe, but anyone who has travelled or worked in Central and Eastern Europe will know that the expression of extreme political views is rife through all parts of society of all political persuasions. Wherever it raises it head it will be condemned but it will not shift the major powers one inch.
457 Peter from Putney
Last week PMQs was sombre, not one to “win” or “lose”. The famous “zero per cent rise” was only 4 PMQs ago - and that includes one where Harman was deputizing.
465 Sally, I wasn’t referring to Osborne at all and only to Cameron as regards PMQs, although I might also add that he’s been virtually invisible throughout the summer recess.
I expect to see my man out there, battling…. we’ve a GE in just over 7 months’ time!
475 wibbler - I fully accept that was the case last week. I was really looking back over the 3 months before the recess - Cameron has lost the habit of regularly beating Brown at PMQs. Phil Silvers told us so week after week.
476. But I think you are mistaken as to the right strategy. Cameron has been in place along time. He doesn’t want to pass his sell by date and have people switch off before an election and unlike us he is not obsessed by every poll.
Its the Labour Party who try to be in the press everyday and it isn’t working for them.
I sincerely hope a Cameron Govt, if elected, will turn the clock back a little and say what needs to be said when it needs to be said rather than finding excuses to be seen all day every day ‘fighting the good fight’.
B*gger *ff the TV and run the country!
Looks like it’s down to me to turn the light out tonight.
Goodnight all.
It’s a double whammy of an appreciating oil price and a declining pound.
by James Burdett October 20th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
But the depreciation does not apply to the Euro area where petrol is €1.20- 1.34 a litre in Iberia and about the same in France and Germany. The pain of buying the stuff travelling through those countries to the Baltic recently is burnt into my soul.
So UK petrol is cheap comparatively.
Sally - you may be right, I keep thinking about Mike’s 3rd or whatever rule it is, whereby the Tories’ ratings go up/down in direct proportion to Dave’s exposure in the media. In truth, I also blamed their apparent dip in the polls earlier this month on his recent invisibility and mediocre conference speech.
Why is it that Labour posters are arguing about much they may lose by rather than putting forward reasons to vote for them?
by Plato October 20th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
Plato, they have run out of steam, collectively. There is no direction from the top, too much deadwood down below.
It happens to all parties and governments in the end. It happened to the Tories in the early 60;s and again at the end of the 80’s which is why Major’s resuscitation was so remarkable.
Labour have the Millibands instead.
No-one, even here, noticed - but Jose Manuel Barrosso held his first “EC President’s Question Time” yesterday:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8316354.stm
http://blogs.euobserver.com/mahony/2009/10/20/barrosos-question-time/
453 It does however fit with two other polls tonight including ICM which has a great track record.
I suspect you are nursing a broken heart.
Actually Mike’s is statistically a very different poll from the other two. Neither of the results for the Conservatives or Labour on ICM or Mori are within the confidence interval (technically it is a panel so does not have one, but we’ll overlook that)of Mike’s poll.
People focusing on the 17% gap are overlooking how different the game is if Mike’s poll is right compared to the others. If Mike is right the Lib Dems are a) significantly more likely to hold out against the Tories in their marginals and b) more likely to beat Labour in contests where they are second. Mike’s poll would herald the potential of a more seismic shift in British politics as Labour’s vote is down to levels it has not experienced since World War 1. At those levels anything can happen.
Southgate sacked.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/middlesbrough/8317621.stm
474. Yes, but…
a united Europe of some sort is now inevitable. Indeed, in a world of massive powerblocs - China, India, USA, etc - arguably desirable.
I’m bored of being a eurosceptic. We were morally right, but we lost. The EU is the only future, and I very much doubt any British referendum would ever take us to the exit door.
The only acceptable future is to stay inside, but fight like buggery to make it way more democratic, and more amenable to the interests of the British people.
This seems to directly contradict the Telegraph story
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1221859/MPs-WONT-pay-rise-sweetener-expenses-crackdown-rules-watchdog.html
But the Telegraph has better contacts inside No 10…
413 NPMP
It would be wrong and deserving of a cross-party rebellion.
486. Sean - there you go again. Bleedin’ (heart) liberal
486 Jeez. Somethings you just never think you’ll live to see.
The smearing against Legg has started, beginning with Ephraim Hardcastle in the Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1221807/EPHRAIM-HARDCASTLE-MPs-hatching-smear-Sir-Thomas-Legg-QC-expenses.html
Louis Susman, the US Ambassador to London, is also understood to have expressed alarm about the “direction of travel”
by tim October 20th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Is he related to Jo Kennedy the elder?
That US ambassador did a great deal of harm to the Is/UK relationship with his defeatism and negative assessments of the UK’s capabilities. And he was proved wrong on so many levels.
490. Don’t get me wrong!
I still despise europhiles for their cant and hypocrisy, and if I ever meet one in real life - especially one who denied us a referendum - I will kick their f*cking lungs in if I get half the chance.
The EU is built on lies and deceit. Nonetheless it is now built, and it provides an answer to a geopolitical poser that otherwise is very difficult to solve - how do medium-size but ambitious European powers exercise their will in a larger world.
So there we are. The answer now is to make the EU parliament and the EU commission and the EU presidency live as democratic entities, problems which seem to be beyond the wit of europhiles, probably because they are lying scum.
They need us eurosceptics to make this damn thing work.
486 SeanT
The only acceptable future is to stay inside, but fight like buggery to make it way more democratic, and more amenable to the interests of the British people.
Agreed. Fully.
495 Me too.
Whilst we are all hissing with one Eurosceptic voice, I will call it a night.
One final thought, Mervin can’t deliver a gag.
495 SallyC
Mervin can’t deliver a gag.
How deflating!
Jose Manuel Barrosso held his first “EC President’s Question Time” yesterday:
by wibbler October 21st, 2009 at 12:41 am
Much of Southern Europe will not even think that even slightly odd when PMs are ‘presidents of the government’ and there are presidents of the parliament.
In Spain Zapatero is is the ‘president’ but the King is the Head of State.
We tend to think of President in US or French terms and that makes it much more evocative and provocative as a term.
493. The EU is built on lies and deceit. Nonetheless it is now built.
SeanT October 21st, 2009 at 12:56 am
True Sean, Hitlers vision of Europe but without the thuggery (we hope) has come to fruition.
Bugger! Bugger! Bugger!
it would appear that the libs and the bnp are the only parties in england against playing more war games in afghanistan.
and the snp of course in scotland.
fighting wars on behalf of criminals like “glenrothes” karzai when the money should be spent helping people here should be an election issue.
all the old retired army guys are well into it, even if the squaddies sadly get more of them blown up than they should due to too much money being spent in admin rather than on equipment.
what a choice, the bland libs and the blind bnp.
413.”I was lobbied this evening by a senior Tory (not a grandee) who suggested a cross-party rebellion if Kelly proposes drastic changes without a long transition.”
NickP, and there is no one in your own party with a similar view? Oh, I forgot, despite all reports to the contrary there was no real dissent about the Legg letters at the last PLP meeting.
285. James Burdett
Also, UNEQUAL is not the same as UNFAIR. I wonder if envious, bitter, idiot left wingers will ever figure that one out.
It is right and just that I have more than people like tim. Its not equal, but it is very fair.
I’ve just seen some of the excellent videos made by the “Nothing British about the BNP”.
It’s an excellent set of attacks on the BNP from the Conservative factions in British politics - even if Griffin did well against Jon Snow and the founder of NothingBritish on Channel 4 news earlier today.
But it needs more media time otherwise it won’t get through to the target audience. There are only a few thousand views of these videos. A web campaign is a good way of mobilising supporters but isn’t very much in isolation.
Why couldn’t the BBC have put Andy McNab on Question Time, instead of Bonnie Greer?
And why are Labour so pathetic in their response to the BNP? They should look and learn from the NothingBritish movement. Really hard campaigns, hitting the BNP right where it hurts - and rattling their cages.
Labour need to find something equally effective. Shouting “racism” by itself, or taking the quixotic Peter Hain stance, isn’t going to work. The likes of Cruddas need to communicate their approach far more openly, for a start.
http://www.youtube.com/user/NothingBritish
418.”Sally - you may be right, I keep thinking about Mike’s 3rd or whatever rule it is, whereby the Tories’ ratings go up/down in direct proportion to Dave’s exposure in the media. In truth, I also blamed their apparent dip in the polls earlier this month on his recent invisibility and mediocre conference speech.”
Peter, its not often I take issue with you, but I think that you are totally wrong to dismiss Cameron’s speech as mediocre! And I say that as someone who knows that you put your money where your mouth is. That speech was about the most clever political speech we have heard in a while. It was different from his previous outing, but it was aimed at doing the job it need to do in the last Conference season before the next GE. He systematically ticked off the boxes in the list of very voter not already nailed onto to vote Tory/Libdem or Labour.
It was also written with Osborne his Shadow Chancellor sitting at this elbow. Remember the Blair/Brown years?
486. “The only acceptable future is to stay inside, but fight like buggery to make it way more democratic, and more amenable to the interests of the British people.”
Good grief, I actually sort of agree with a SeanT pronouncement on Europe. Not sure about the last bit (Europe ought to be serving the interests of all the people of Europe equally) but other than that, well said, Sean. The EU could certainly do with a lot more democracy (and, no, I don’t mean FPTP for the European Parliament).
I fear this consensus will not last, though. Not that I’d want to accuse Sean of being as flighty as a girl, but past history does kind of speak for itself…
wibbler, hard for labour to go overboard against the bnp, as they are taking more votes from the tories and a vote for the bnp is not a threat to labour in any constituency seat.
so lots of rhetoric but labour cannot be seen merely as the immigrant apologist party but also needs to remain relevant to the white working class so it picks up enough areas outside the big urban conurbations. a fine balancing act.
calling bnp voters dumb for example would not be the best way to get people to vote labour at an election.
negative campaigning will still be the labour approach, it has to be after 12 years of failed policies.
506 redcliffe62
The BNP is most successful amongst disaffected ex-Labour voters.
BBC Scotland - Red kite numbers hit record high
Been desperately hoping to spot on in Aberdeenshire this summer, not been lucky so far. A bird that will always remind me of SBS.
508 Christina
I googled SBS and found the lead story to be “Liberal leader agrees to be tasered” (Oz site).
Did you mean Clegg or Scott?
509. Oldnat, SBS was a regular PB.com poster who died a few months ago at a tragically young age.
509. oldnat.
SBS was a poster here.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/07/12/the-7388-posts-of-samuel-best-shaw/
486
You do go through these phases when you speak complete garbage don’t you Sean.
There is nothing either inevitable nor necessary about us being part of the EU. Nor have we ‘lost’ as Eurosceptics. In fact the events of the last couple of years have helped to strengthen the anti-EU opinion in the UK and Lisbon will only help in making people feel even more disaffected from the whole project and make our departure more likely.
We are helped in this by the fact that you are also entirely wrong if you believe the EU will ever be changed in such a way as to be more amenable to the British. The structures and philosphies that underpin the EU are so fundamentally at odds with British systems of justice and classical liberal politics as to make the whole project unsellable to the British now or at any time in the future. Those philosophies are also the reason that the EU will never change in the way you hope. Because you fail to recognise the intrinsic nature of the EU you persist in the misconception that it can ever be changed to suit British sensibilities.
If you wish to give up becaue you are tired of fighting then that is entirely your affair. But it is not a position that will find much support amongst the great mass of people who are still dedicated to ending Britain’s involvement in this debased and corrupt project.
372. There is a FM in Scotland. Just get rid of the useless SoS and be done with it. It would make the FM of Scotland a minister of Westminster appointed by a party not in power in Scotland? That makes no sense and would certainly not “fold Scotland affectionately but not smotheringly into the Union.”
It would cause outrage.
Not to mention it is hard to “fold Scotland affectionately into the union” when Scotland is so obviously hated by the English. Or have you missed the bile that is so regularly poured out toward it?
Pardon the error. That was in response to 375 not 372.
Just watched the C$ Nick Griffin interview. As articulate as the man is, he didn’t half look a fool when he said to Jon Snow - “why are you so obsessed with race, Peter?”
I watched a significant portion of tonight’s final debate between the candidates for governor of Virginia, and…
It’s over. McDonnell will win. Deeds is a dismal candidate by all appearances and seems to be out of options. If you have a house, bet it on McDonnell.
I know absolutely nothing about the Virginia governor race, but I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that McDonnell is the Republican and Deeds is the Democrat. Can’t imagine what would make me think that…
Some signs of optimism in the postal strike negotiations
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8317628.stm
Now, now, James. Prejudice is a sin whatever its source.
McDonnell sounds like he is a good Celt: why he may even be a fluffy little Liberal who supports the cause of the Commonwealth of Virginia’s secession from the Union.
519. “Now, now, James. Prejudice is a sin whatever its source.”
Aye, but I was right, though, wasn’t I?
All polls are good for the Tories.
Especially real ones like the Bedford Mayoral Election.
If the Tories don’t have a majority of at least 300 at the next General Election it will be devastating for them. With Brown being hated as much as Hilda was, NuLabour deserves no seats at all. The Libdems are useless under The Man who Never Was, and Never Will Be and should have about 3 MPs.
So there we go. Cameron becomes PM and destroys UK Ltd within ten days of being elected and we all live happily ever after; well those of us who spend more time abroad and only visit the UK for the NHS. Unless the Tories destroy that, and then we’ll have to go to Canada.
520 James
I’ve just googled it:
“A new poll shows Republican Bob McDonnell with an 8-point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia race for governor.”
So you were right!
Now I just tossed a two pence piece. Heads or Tails?
re SBS Sorry - before my time.
522. “Now I just tossed a two pence piece. Heads or Tails?”
Oh, I think know this game - it’s an old favourite of S&S. It’s called “Heads I win, tails the Democrats lose”.
OK. Enough!
Malcolm has just persuaded me to give up my resolution to be politically correct.
Why are all you James, Stuarts, Malcolms and Colins so nasty about Maggie and Dave.
There is not enough love in the air.
P.S. and ‘olds’
James
You are so untrusting!
My offer was as unsullied as the odds on the Bedford Mayoralty election!
525. Not a bit of it, Seth! We regularly toast Maggie up here as the ‘unwitting midwife of devolution’. Dave may have a similarly constructive part to play in Scottish history…
PS. Could you explain your PS?
oldnat who appeared just after I had written the comment
I guess Redcliffe should have been in there too, but there is a doubt both as to its provenance as a first name and his loyalty to the cause. He has sunned too much in a contented dominion.
527 James
You’ve forgotten a whole lot of other Brits whose increasing intervention into Scottish domestic affairs brought about the whole process of returning political power to Scotland - starting with the resurrection of the post of Scottish Secretary in 1885.
However, you are almost right, but Maggie wasn’t the midwife - more the witch - the consequence of whose evil spells scared the UK into giving a rebirth to Scotland.
Goodnight all
“Also, UNEQUAL is not the same as UNFAIR. I wonder if envious, bitter, idiot left wingers will ever figure that one out.”
There’s nothing to figure out - it’s dumb Conservatives who don’t get it.
1) How sellable to the poor is the line “we want an authoritarian totalitarian state with us in charge so we can live like kings”?
2) How can you enforce equality without a totalitarian state?
3) How sellable to the poor is the line “we want equality for all!”?
Not complicated.
530 oldnat
I have the solution. It came to me in the middle of the night as I was typing the comment on Redcliffe*.
Global warming.
More sun in the northern latitudes and there would be no need for witchhunters or exorcists. Just eternal harmony between nations.
*Redcliffe should be the hero of a Sir Walter Scott novel with that name, although I think it is less romantic and just his location in Oz.
533. A seductive theory, Seth, until you consider that the Australians have not exactly been renowned recently for the warmth of their welcome to their fellow man (ie. immigrants). And of course the sun-starved Swedes are notorious warmongers!
532 MrJones
I am a conservative and you are right: I don’t get it.
My untutored and ignorant answers are:
1) Completely
2) You can’t
3) Moderately
Where is this going?
the dominion seth is indeed a tad too warm, rather sick of 70F overnight and 90F in the daytime. one can get too much of a good thing.
on my regular return, normally to shrew, and normally in summer so i do not freeze totally after acclimatisation, i find wearing anything more than a t shirt and actually feeling COLD is a rare luxury.
i do get cold occasionally, as i go to the snowfields once every couple of years, which is great and reminds me of my youth in edinburgh, as i learned to ski on an artifical slope there.
i see some positive aspects about conservatives outside greater lanarkshire, a bulwark against conservatism, but the brand needs to be cleaned up with an apology for what thatcherism did to the economies of bathgate, ravenscraig and linwood.
off for a swim now at the lagoon, happy days…….
534 James
The Swedes were but not for 150 odd years.
As for being sun-starved, I think this is only partly true. I can think of no other city that lights up in response to the sun with such joy as Stockholm.
It is all that yellow stucco. You should try it in Lanarkshire instead of all that grey granite.
seth*
you were right, i am named after a character in a less well known and unfinished sir walter scott novel.
537. You’re preaching to the converted there, Seth, I’m a great admirer of the Scandinavian countries.
I think we have rather a lot to learn from those small, independent northern European countries with a strong social democratic tradition.
538 Redcliffe
I shall get to work on a libretto for an opera. Lucia isn’t enough.
539 James
I love them all too, but I wouldn’t be caught wanting a drink on a Sunday evening in Oslo.
The Stockholm archipelago is one of the natural wonders of the world.
As for social democratic tradition, this seems to be on the wane. Co-payment for medical services? The threat is enough to bring hospital car parking fees back!
seth coincidence* i saw lucia recently, at a full private cast dress rehearsal sung in italian at qpac. very good.
she that need to be obeyed has more interest having sung opera professionally when younger, as did her mum.
541. Well, according to Stuart (who speaks Swedish and seems to utterly loathe the Swedish Social Democratic party for some unspecified reason) the Moderate Party’s masterplan for clinging on to power is to essentially turn themselves into the Social Democrats Mark II. Kind of New Labour in reverse. And of course the Norwegian Labour party have just won re-election, the Icelandic left are in power for the first time since Bruce Forsyth was a lad, and the Danish social democrats are (the last time I checked, anyway) the favourites for the forthcoming elections there.
So the social democratic tradition isn’t looking as peaky as all that.
535. I wasn’t clear.
1) How sellable to the poor is the line “we want an authoritarian totalitarian state with us in charge so we can live like kings”?
The “we” is the marxist party trying to sell the line.
542 Redcliffe
You are a lucky man.
The opera will be called:
“Ruperossa e la liberazione dei nazionalisti”.
I have booked Anna Netrebko (Soprano), Elina Garanca (Mezzo) and Dmitri Hvorostovsky (Bass-Baritone).
You can choose the tenor.
543 James
You are much better informed on Nordic politics than I am, especially as my close association with the countries dates back some years now.
Curiously I found the countries to be comparatively unpoliticised, though this may just be that most of my contacts were bankers.
I bow therefore to your better judgement and knowledge. I know Stuart is married to a Swede: what is your personal connection?
544 MrJones
I can’t think why I answered Q1 “completely”.
I am going mad though for different reasons from Lucia.
I think it is time for sleep.
546. No connection at all really, apart from a couple of very nice holidays, and an even nicer pen-friend!
548 James
If you haven’t already try Iceland.
I’m hitting the sack! Good night!
547. Fair enough.
549. Night, Seth. I’ll hopefully take your advice one day!
seth, the tenor should be an aussie who is over there now, julian gavin, sings italian well and has played in an earlier lucia version. perfect.
I see that Colin Challen is no longer a resident of planet earth.
http://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/news/Leeds-MP39s-plan-to-ditch.5747650.jp
534. Sorry James, but I can’t let that one go. Australia unwelcome to immigrants? Modern Australia is the very essence of welcoming immigration! One in twenty Australians is a migrant from the UK. Half the country was either born overseas or has a parent that was. Wave after wave. First fleeters, free settlers, gold rush seekers, Ten Pound Poms, “New Australians” from the continent to build the Snowy Hydroelectric scheme, refugees from every continent, etc etc. Come and visit James - you’d see the cliche was nonsense.
But redcliffe is right about the heat. Plus the humidity in Brisbane (my home town). We’ve only got another six months of it to go before we have some sort of identifiable “autumn”…
387. It is not an overall pay rise for MPs, but a £3,000 pay rise for all MPs, and a £20,000 reduction in ministers pay resulting in the same total wage bill. If Labour lose the next election and the Conservatives win, the reduced salaries for ministers will mainly affect the Conservatives.
Just ordered my copy of The Political Punter from Amazon. SBS has the only customer review of it up there.
554. Yes, I should have been more specific, but I can assure that I didn’t have white immigrants in mind when I made that comment. There’s no doubt Australian has very successfully assimiliated UK immigrants.
I was thinking rather more of this -
http://www.amnesty.org.au/action/action/21112/
555. It’s funny, I spotted that earlier as well - I think we were all doing the same Google search!
468 Peter. “Wall to wall Tories - would be interesting to have the views of Labour supporters”. Wrong - NPMP was on site, on a historic thread, with a powerful set of numbers confirmed by two other pollsters. Mike has been very supportive of him in the past when he certainly didn’t deserve it. He commented in detail on previous polls suggesting Labour could be on the verge of a recovery, Mike deserved at least some reference to a remarkable achievement.What did we get? A futile anonymous one-liner about MP’s expenses.Not that I was surprised, par for the course.
NEW THREAD
Interesting comment on Dave’s Uturn (does anyone else in the party agree with it?) from Nadine.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/10/nadine-dorries-mp-explains-her-fear-that-allwomen-shortlists-will-create-two-classes-of-conservative.html
The last paragraph is a hoot!