PB Angus Reid poll has Labour down to 22pc
November 23rd, 2009
CON 39%(38)
LAB 22%(25 24)
LD 21%(20)
OTHERS 18% (18)
Labour only one point ahead of the Lib Dems
There’s a new Angus Reid Strategies poll exclusively for PB and it shows a very different picture from the Ipsos-MORI survey that was published in the Observer yesterday.
The fieldwork for this 2,000 sample online poll started on Friday and only finished today. It had not been the plan to release it early but given all the attention there is being given to polling at the moment we have decided to publish it tonight.
The detailed data will not be available until later on tomorrow.
In common with all the other UK pollsters apart from MORI Angus Reid takes steps to ensure a politically balanced sample by asking respondents what they did last time.
A anotrher difference between this and MORI is the timing - the survey closed only a few hours ago.
Yet again there is a high figure for “others” - something that has been seen in a lot of recent polls.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Hahahahahahahahahaha!
Oh thank f*ck for that, I thought Labour were going to be in the lead or something.
Ouch!
SENSATIONAL
Bob Wooster crying into his Chateau Latour.
So can we officially call MORI a rogue?
Good grief. Labour on the up, Labour on the down. My nerves can’t take this! Tories movement within MOE.
Thanks to OGH and Angus Reid. Complete narrative change again!
BOOOOORRINGGGG!
WOW!
Baxter gives a Con majority of 96.
LD 1 point behind…
Oh dear - Mr McIntyre’s prediction didn’t last 24 hrs
Mike - what a tease - i thought Labour had gone ahead after reading something today about their internal polling which I hasten to say I didn’t believe.
Wow. That would make for a very interesting general election.
Roger was about right:
“Parameters of what I would describe as “Sensational” Tory lead above 17 points”
Oh, that’s OK!
I take it the BBC, Sky and ITN will diligently report in their bulletins tonight that “What we said all weekend about Labour closing the gap has been seriously undermined this evening by a new poll showing Labour 17 points behind, and only 1 ahead of the Lib Dems”?
Or perhaps not..
BTW I think Angus Reid are rubbish.
Sorry Mike.
Tell them to cut others by six and hide it in the detail.
HA HA HA HA HA!
Bloody Nora I was worried though!
How many times [if ever] has Labour been in 3rd in a GE poll?
wow
hahahahahaha……AR vs Mori…can’t both be right!
Mike do you have a breakdown for the others? I’m really keen to see the position of UKIP post Cameron’s decision on a post ratified Lisbon agreement.
9 - In the unlikely event that these results were replicated at a general election, I’d see the Tories with a majority of about 150 and I’d be in danger of paying URW £500 of my hard-earned money.
Think Sky and BBC will report this?
I’ve always said Angus Reid/PB are the pollster’s of choice….
Time for a replay of the 9-1 with dinner.
16 Why? I thought their questions were really perceptive and attitude probing then anything I’ve seen from the usual crowd.
Wow…Roger was right for once..just not in the way he was hoping!
BTW - If you cut a large chunk off the unrealistic “others” score and give most of it to Labour, then you might just be within the MoE of the Mori poll
Ha Ha! Sensational for Tories! Fair description under the circumstances.
OT How to win a Tory open primary
http://thenewblue.ning.com/profiles/blogs/the-esher-amp-walton-open
16- Angus Reid do often have funny little articles accompanying the polls posted at their site, http://www.angus-reid.com/
They may be great pollsters as far as I know, but somebody needs to help them with their commentary sometimes.
Also thanks to OGH and Angus Reid for getting this poll out.
Are we also due a COMRES for the Independent tonight?
14. “Roger was about right:
“Parameters of what I would describe as “Sensational” Tory lead above 17 points”
The final sign of the Apocalypse.
Well done Roger, although I assume you’d rather have been wrong.
25 - yeah bit harsh. Just feel it’s going to need some more tweaking before it can be properly established.
It’s all very well asking lots of “perceptive” questions, but whereas most pollsters are too blunt, being too perceptive might just be going a bit too far in assessing people’s actual voting intentions.
There is a danger that you end up being a bit “leading”, in the sense that you force people to go through thought processes that they might not do in reality.
‘Ave it ready,antifrank ! Polls,schmolls. They make the world go round and more importantly they make the money go round.
Money isn’t everything. Health is 5% at least.
In all seriousness and now I’ve made myself a cup of tea to sooth the jitters, I wonder if the polls are picking up some real fluctuations in the political mood. We’ve had an austerity conference from the Tories, the change in European Policy, the recession not ending, yet confidence increasing. I wonder if we’re seeing shuffling between the parties on a scale that we haven’t had since the autumn 2008 financial crisis.
FPT 362.Tory lead 22%?
At least I got the right direction of “sensational”. There aren’t half some faint-hearts out there! Labour level indeed - pah!!!
As I said at the time - the IPSOS poll was the work of Roguey McRogue from Rogueseville. No way had 1 in 7 Tories walked away from the party.
But excellent news that OGH was able to nail it as such just a few days after the poll came out. Well done, sir!
Gordon back in the pooh.
MORI = big joke!
Please, can this stop the hung Parliament rhetoric! If there were 3 or 4 polls in a row showing a 6 point lead, fair enough, but after leads of 12 points, the lead back up to 13 shows that it must have been a dodgy MORI poll.
LOL! 17% lead again? Maybe this is a Rogue Poll instead?
34 - If the markets take this poll seriously, Lib Dem seats will tick up.
33 I guess tim is currently on the telephone to his Tory voting weekend hosts for some more anecdotal evidence to support this poll?
The only ‘others’ figure I have is 6pc for UKIP.
I’ve not even see the data yet but we wanted to get it ASAP
28 - Roger, I think it’s more that it’s “anti-sensational” for Labour
Mike - do you make a point of letting Sky and the BBC know about your polls please/ I eally think you should.
Wonderful news !!!!Wonder what Macintyre makes of it.
This does then mean that all the issues raised about the MORI poll in the past 48 hours or so do need to be addressed.
LDs ahead of Labour in England - SURELY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
40 - Thanks Mike, this poll (and all the hard work involved) is really appreciated.
40 only 6% for UKIP? Whats the other 12% then?
Mike, who IS paying for these polls? Coz Angus Reid could presumably have made a tidy sum selling this to someone?
“In common with all the other UK pollsters apart from MORI Angus Reid takes steps to ensure a politically balanced sample by asking respondents what they did last time.”
Key issue.
Every Mori poll really needs adjusting for past voting behaviour.
Does anyone know what it was on the 52-24-12 Mori poll from last year? I suspect it heavily overpolled previous Conservative voters.
This poll is an obvious rogue. The Ipsos-MORI survey is in line with the current political climate I have been sensing of late, namely that Labour have, at last, developed a beautifully crafted two-pronged strategy: on the one hand portray Brown as a risible, ham-fisted individual worthy of our pity; on the other, portray Cameron and Osborne as politically corrupt. It seems to be working well. I hate to say it - and it will be the final nail in our nation’s coffin - but we should now be preparing ourselves for five more years of the strange, reckless, amoral Gordon.
37 - I do wonder if we have actually had two outliers. What is interesting is that the movement in the Tory vote is still around the 38-42 mark and it is Labour that is shifting up and down like a yo-yo. The big event in the last few days was the Queens Speech. We have anecdotal evidence across the blogosphere that some of it is resonating but lots isn’t. I can’t believe that this will have induced a huge chunk of the Labour core-vote to suddenly vanish which is what this would induce, but we do seem to be in suddenly volatile times politically.
45 Very interesting point. Can the LibDems yet poll more votes than Labour? Some people who piled onto Labour might just be getting a sqeaky bum about now!
29 - I was there and wouldn’t disagree with a word of that comprehensive article. Before the meeting I spent much of an evening with Raab at a local hostelry (Councillor’s privilege!!), and was mightily impressed. I’d expect at least 6,000 added to the majority next year.
29. They missed out, bus in all your friends and relations to vote for you.
At this rate, are there any predictions as to when LAB go sub 20% in a poll?
51 - Does that mean that interviewers should start asking Brown which party he would go with in a Hung Parliament scenario?
*** BETTING POST ***
I have put this one up before and it is more technical than from the heart. I think that Skybet’s 4-5 Lib Dem Over 50.5 Seats is absolutely marked.
The bet is totally sound on pure technical grounds and this poll gives it extra ooomph.
Mike:
According to UKPR the Lab %-age for the last ARS poll was 24, not 25.
ARS maintaining its trend of ridiculously high Others scores.
Instant 3 point slide in the Labour price on SPIN
24 - If you fancy nine goals to be scored again this season (in the PL), Ladbrokes are offering 25/1. It’s one of those bets that you instinctively think must be poor value, but a bit of thought suggests that it’s actually more than fair.
Ditto Others far too high - just says there is still a game to be played for
I’ve got so say the Lib-Dems being only one point behind Labour looks as weird as Labour being 6 points behind the Conservatives. What are the changes on last time? I would guess like many gamblers I have dismissed Ipsos-MORI as a rogue because of the massive change in the numbers without any reason for it.
22 to 21, second place could still be up for grabs you know. All it needs is differential turnout.
Its the OTHERS stupid!
Let’s see, 18% = UKIP 5%, BNP 5%, Greens 2%, SNP 6%
62. Chris:
Con +1, Lab -2, Lib +1
Can’t be right, Downing st internal polling puts Labour ahead.
James McIntyre must have fallen into the new Universe created by the Large Hadron Collider.
Electoral Calculus - CON 68 Majority
60 Aaron. That post amply demonstrates why you are the sharpest tool in the pb.com box.
Bet that price doesn’t last 24 hours.
Should be a stamede for seats Re-arrangement now.
URW and PtP lead the charge; Oh and OGH of course.
If the Lib Dems are on 21% then I’m the Pope.
URW
IIRC a ‘political guru’ told you recently that the LibDems would win only 47 seats next year.
Are you able to reveal the identity of this individual?
Also, if you’re looking at possible Labour gains from LibDems - Oxford East is now a notioanl LibDem seat after boundary changes but Labour have been doing well at local elections. Chesterfield is another but smaller possiblity with a good and internet friendly Labour candidate.
Online poll…
LOL! FAIL!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Pardon me whilst I laugh.
HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAaaaaahahah
Now right wingers, you are supposed to look at the undertlying figures, twist them, be selective and try to make it sound even worse that it is.
Or you can just decide not to be like our Labour supporting friends.
CORRECTION:
Electoral Calculus - CON 96 Majority
Sorry about earlier post.
How much swingback for a hung parliament;)?
Shame this poll won’t get much of a ‘pubic’ airing!
Telegraph reporting they expect none of the people they named last week to escape,
“As The Daily Telegraph disclosed last week, those facing prosecution are Labour MPs Elliot Morley, David Chaytor and Jim Devine, and peers Baroness Uddin, Lord Hanningfield and Lord Clarke of Hampstead.
Four of the case files have been passed to the CPS, with a further two expected to follow within weeks.”
I do hope that Toenails Robinson comments on this the same way as he commented on the MORI poll.
Pictures of Maggie in no 10 actually might not help the Tories as it reminds the electorate of the Conservative past
71 another richard. No , I can’t reveal my sources. That is why I posted that a Buy of LD is just a technical bet. My heart isn’t in it even though it is a moneymaker.
Wells: CON 86 Majority
CON 368 seats (+170)
LAB: 191 seats (-165)
LIB: 61 seats (-1)
OTHERS: 12 seats (nc)
Northern Ireland: 18 seats (nc)
54 - Labour have been sub 20% in a poll this year.
On the 31st May MORI said 40-18-18
35 “In all seriousness and now I’ve made myself a cup of tea to sooth the jitters, I wonder if the polls are picking up some real fluctuations in the political mood.”
Taking this poll at face value and assuming an original Labour core of say 35% then there’s about 13% ex-Labour to be accounted for. Say a solid 2-3% each for BNP, UKIP and Green then there’s 4-7% left to bounce all over the place on a daily basis (including occasionally going partially back to Labour for a day or two).
Not saying the numbers are exactly right but i think that gives an indication of what’s going on.
This poll is much more like it! Seriously though,the Angus Reid surveys consistently show a very low level of Labour support and I’m curious as to why that might be.
78 - What with a grinning Gordo next to her?
“Bugger I remember her, evil Tories, what, what’s this, a Labour man doing PR shots with her…..”
56 - The other Lib Dem bet that looks generous on this poll is Lib Dem seats 70-79 at 9/1 with Ladbrokes.
70. Good to know that your Holiness takes an interest in UK politics
82 - “Labour core of 35%”
Think you are over-estimating that a tad there son, 30% is more like it.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/06/boosts-for-ukip-and-the-bnp-in-latest-pb-angus-reid-poll/
Previous ARS poll apparently: 38 24 20
Just got home and saw this. Made my evening! That’s more like it and fits with the general anecdotal information I’m picking up.
Incidentally now that Jedward really are Deadward (shortly after Gordon had a change of heart about them) the Conservatives have brought out their own Jedward Brown/Darling poster which is splashed over tonight’s ES. I think it’s all pretty silly, but at least the Tories got their timing right.
I think Mori were just unlucky that their sample picked up a disproportionate number of Labour voters, they’ve nothing to be ashamed of.
In contrast Macintyre is just a gimp!
Ashcroft buys Chavasse VC* medal for £1.5 million
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6624138/Lord-Ashcroft-pays-record-price-for-ultimate-Victoria-Cross.html
I wonder if Nick Palmer has seen this poll.
91 and………………….
83 - true Benji but its level of Tory support has also been consistently lower than other polling Orgs.
91 - Yes I read that on my chip wrapper this evening….In other 3 day old news…
I will be interested to hear Anthony’s and Mike’s breakdown.
All hail Anthony, whose advice should be sent to all pollsters on the eve of grand splashes.
Sarcasm apart, I will be interested because I don’t think Labour are that close to the LibDems. Its not reflected in other polls.
[note to left wingers and journos - that's what you do when polls throw up results you don't quite get].
On R5L - more revelations on Andrew Dismore in Telegraph tonight.
97 - Ohhhhhhh, not the BBC will be interested though, they weren’t last night. Unlike when Tory shagger was on the front page, 10.01pm Front and centre on the website….
85 tim. I generally agree with most of your observations and once again you are correct in a *technical* sense, but all my doings and all my findings suggest that this is a mere punt.
Peter the Punter should like it though !
83. Maybe because they are extremely unpopular?
Not a peep out of Politics Home yet.
Just had a look at the polls, and out of the 125 polls this year, in only 15 out of those 125, have Labour had a poll rating of 31% or more, and only 2 of those have been since the 4th of April.
They are buggered arent they?
82 - Apart from you core vote value for Labour, I don’t disagree with you…
Twitter is lighting up like a Christmas Tree. Henry is already on the case!
Thank you Sunil. So the Angus Reid numbers are still a little odd but are at least part of a trend. Unlike the weird as those Ipsos-MORI numbers which came out of nowhere.
I wonder how far away from the bunker the screams will be audible when Gordo finds out? This kind of poll variation would cause anybody to turn to the happy pills!
91 A fair few politicians would do well to learn from Captain Chavasse’s story. “Duty called and duty must be obeyed.”
90. ‘I think Mori were just unlucky that their sample picked up a disproportionate number of Labour voters, they’ve nothing to be ashamed of.’
Agreed.
But then it was clear from their figures [49% didn't vote Labour/29% Tory at the last GE] and that’s not what they toted, very publically, round town.
There are obvious commercial pressures to do just just that [and I'm not unsympathic to a private business, being a Tory that] but there are obvious pitfalls too.
In fact, Bob could still be saved his blushes by another poll. Anything to support it will be jumped on by the MSN.
I have to say that this poll seems no more credible than MORI.In fact all 3 of the Angus Reid polls to date seem highly suspect .
I thing Rod has put this up because of the Liverpool connection. It would be nice if the medal could be displayed for a while at Liverpool Cathedral.
I’ve just amended the previous poll figure for Labour - it was actually 24%.
68 - much obliged, URW. BTW, Skybet have insulted us both with their refusal to move that LD price
I don’t much like backing it either, fwiw.
87. Well maybe so. I’d have thought there’s easily still 35% of the population who used to be “vote Labour or not at all” types.
91. I like how much value he puts on VCs.
83. Iirc their question is crafted to pick up local considerations much more, and that tends to benefit the LDs and harm Labour.
104 - Who is Henry?
These are the tables from the last risible Mori:
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-september-2008-tables.pdf
Am I blind or is there no “previous vote” listed there to compare whether that one oversampled previous C voters?
Has Lord Michael White of Kneepads passed wind on this poll yet?
115 - Henry Macrory who works for the Conservative Party…
http://twitter.com/henrymacrory
O/T for fans of the new EU dream team, here are their salaries:
Van Rompuy: 320 000 pounds a year
Ashton: 240 000 pounds a year
(tax free, of course)
113. (cont) Does sound a bit high now i think on it more.
Some Tories on here are going to be very angry with Newsnight tonight.
119 - So more than the Prime Minister then.
I must admit i find it rather surprising that the TPA haven’t seriously turned their attention to the Gravy train in Brussels.
121 its a dead issue tim.
“Tonight we have a film about controversial Polish MEP, Michal Kaminski, leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) that the British Conservative Party are now aligned to.
Mr Kaminski has been called a homophobe, an anti-Semite and a neo-Nazi - all claims he staunchly denies. So what’s the truth about him? Tim Whewell has been finding out.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/fromthewebteam/2009/11/monday_23_november_2009.html
121 - Depends what the slant is really, isn’t it?
121 - You mean the impending hatchet job on Kam1sk1. I hope tomorrw they’ll be doing a piece on Labour’s moonbat allies in Europe
re 109. They said that in Canada before the last elections there when ARS was totally out on line with the others. In fact the firm “won” by a significant margin
I’ve been looking through oddschecker.com odds comparison site, and on 9 out of 10 LD / Labour seats that I was looking at Paddy Power came up with the best odds.
Can anyone advise on how Paddy Power and others would go about setting their prices? Fundamentally they must just have to take a view and then see how punters respond. They are out of line with other book makers in their expectations of Labour and LD outcomes.
re: 44. LDs > Labour in England would be something indeed!
110. Yes I attended the unveiling of his statue in Abercromby Square last year…
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1252386&op=1&o=global&view=global&subj=5810697828&id=586392999#/photo.php?pid=1252420&op=1&o=global&view=global&subj=5810697828&id=586392999&fbid=31365627999
121. Nothing new there Timmy. It’s usually a bit of anti climax.
The pee-takers have taken over the BBC’s comment pages re CRU
This is the latest one to get passed the mods
“18. At 6:38pm on 23 Nov 2009, Andydaws wrote:
Another allegation allegedly from a site which alleges it has alleged posters who allege they have the alleged files.
One poster, alleges that he’s worked through the alleged code (allegedly FORTRAN) used allegedly in one of the allegedly major allegedly dendrochronological alleged reconstructions. He alledges that this alledged code (from an allegedly major figure) not only shows the alleged manipulationg of alleged post 1960 alleged divergence between alleged dendro records and alleged instrumental temperatures (allegedly “hiding the (alleged) decline”), but also (allegedly) a manual adjustment to allegedly avoid showing allegedly high temperatures in the alleged 1930s.
…(takes a deep breath)…
Which, if true, would be a “smoking gun” for scientific fraud.
Allegedly”
122. “Some Tories on here are going to be very angry with Newsnight tonight.”
Labour 22%.
123 - You said that 6 months ago.
Everyone keep quiet about this poll. Do not tell the BBC or indeed any other media outlets.
The election for Chairman of the PLP is later this week - we don’t want this to lead to Sheerman or anyone else mounting a challenge.
121 TIMBOT, another one of your ‘Mummy, Mummy, look at me’ posts! Is that the sound of a dead horse being flogged?
119 O/T But is the French national Rugby team the perfect metaphor for the French in everything from war to eonomics and sport? That when they are of one mind there is almost nothing that can stop them but being prone to divisions they are just as likely to start fighting amongst themselves. Thus no one ever beats the French except themelves.
133 And in that six months it has moved precisely six votes.
108. SallyC
If you adjust the Mori poll by the ICM weighting it changes to:
Con 42.1
Lab 26.4
LD 23.4
Or if you use the 6-10 votes I think it becomes:
Con 39.8
Lab 27.3
LD 23.4
Oh look very similar to other polls.
Mori, good for talking points but bad for basing your betting on.
Tim, Its a dead issue because nobody cares,
Good poll for the Tories.
Mike, will this be our last Angus poll of 2009?
140 - I realise you don’t care how squalid and extreme the leader of the Tory Euro group is.
I realise that fully.
130. Ace statue.
139 Thanks for that Richard.
Labour and the Lib dems look closer than I would expect.
142 Why don’t you set the right wing plebs a good example and get interested in your own extremists.
It would enhance your authority.
Newsnight also seems to be covering the CRU hacker story. It’ll be interesting to see what slant they put on it as up till now the BBC has just had it as a hacker story and nothing more.
Following this poll, do I stick some money on the Lib Dems at 3/1 getting more votes than Labour at the next election?
I don’t think the Yogurtski thing is about the voters it’s about trying to rattle Hague.
133 Is that two twos or two fingers.
136. I would have thought tim would be more upset with the BBC about this…
…the kind of w*nker that would be walking around in this day and f*cking age with a name like f*cking tim.
Malcolm Tucker
147 - No, you take the 4/5 bet highlighted by URW.
And have a bit of a speculative one on the 70-79 seat band at Ladbrokes.
Surely the Newsnight/Kaminski programme will just conclude that he had some dodgy associations in his youth, and doesn’t now. With a few quotes from prominent Jews in Poland?
How is it going to do the Tories any harm?
142 Tim read what is written, nobody cares, not even about Labour’s questionable “friends” in Europe.
Hmm on Paddy Power, odds on Labour getting a Majority at the next election
Labour Majority
Event was suspended.
Do they know something we don’t?
151 - It was Mr Nabavi that spotted that, and I filled my boots that day. Thanks Mr Nabavi.
tim, furiously spreading more ground bait in the desperate search of a nibble. Hopefully the fish in this pond are now wily enough to ignore it.
137- Punter
On the more general point, I am not an objective witness so I will pass.
On the rugby team, in many ways it has become more “normal”these last few years, mostly disciplined and strong on defense, often a bit boring too… The game against the Springboks was a good example: extremely good play by the front eight, crushing the Boks into submission, but not many flashy plays by the other seven…
With a great number 10 it would have a very good chance to win a world cup. As it is, I’ll reserve my judgement for after the game against NZ.
Evening all, so have we decided that Mori was officially a rogue?
TSE. I would stick to the *breeding* side of the sport if I were you and leave the *betting* side alone.
I’m hoping that we’ll have at least one more ARS poll before Christmas.
All pollsters with the exception of ICM are also becoming up high figures for the minor parties Yougov 14-15% Populus 14% Comres 19% and Mori 15% , in this respect ICM are the odd one out . Ant iseas why this should be , Mike ?
I’m concerned that Nick P may be ill - 150 posts and he as yet to explain this poll - on staurday he responded to the mori poll almost instantly. funny.
159 - Why, I’ve made some tasty profits?
162 - If I were a Labour MP and I saw this poll, I’d be feeling a bit queasy too.
ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss
Heard that?
That’s the MORI bonfire being p!$$3d on
13 TSE. I just wish Betfair were betting on this. I would Lay you three ranches to one in the blink of an eye.
157- Chris, what do you make of these figures from Ifop showing Sarkozy scoring only 28% in a hypothetical first round of presidential voting?:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/34547/sarkozy_leads_rivals_in_next_french_ballot/
Also, it looks like the right is going to be slaughered again in regional elections this spring, n’est-ce pas?
160. Thats good news Mike.
157. I say this as a huge fan (and player) of rugby that the autumn internationals have been terrible so far.
With South Africa’s recent success everyone seems to want to kick deep, play physical, and force mistakes. Even Wales and France are playing more like England generally do. It’s a sad sight to see (as a welshman I’d rather have a fairly successful team playing attractive rugby than a very successful one playing boring rugby).
I always remember the quote (I think from Pelous) about the French, ’sometimes we play like birds flying in the sky, and sometimes we’re just crap’
So ICM had a what, 13%? lead, then a day late Mori get a 6% lead, then a week later it’s 17% on ARS.
Think I’ll stick with ICM and their 10% for others.
158 - Mori seem to be more swingy than other pollsters. ARS produce the most startlingly unhelpful results for Labour. I guess we’ll have to wait for the election to see how reliable ARS is. At present, who knows?
The most I draw from this poll is that ARS at least detect no swing to Labour and in fact seem to see a swing away from Labour.
167 - 28% is pretty big for a first round French Presidential poll, isn’t it?
One swallow and all that …
However, IF we get a poll where the Lib Dems overtake Labour, and IF that trend starts to be sustained, then we enter very interesting territory ….
This poll shows, quite clearly, why the Ezio Partay is best placed to come through the middle and win this General Election.
Vote Ezio - For an Ave It free Europe.
83. “taking a labour core of say 35″
Sorry it’s taken me ages to answer your post, I had to go and shower and change my clothes, because I wet myself laughing. Labour only got 35.6 at the last election. What you mean is a core of 25 !
Please pour yourself a long stiff drink, put your feet up and watch “Alice in Wonderland” . You will feel at home with your deluded expectations!
ComRes have a recession poll:
The poll commissioned by R3 shows that during 2009:
o One in three workers have worked overtime or longer hours without extra pay;
o One in ten have deliberately not asked for a pay rise in view of the recession;
o One in ten have taken unpaid leave;
o One in ten accepted a pay freeze;
o One in ten did not receive a bonus that they expected to receive;
o One in two people who work have taken at least one of these actions.
Is it surprising that large numbers of people have more faith in Cameron’s policy of tackling the deficit ASAP?
Its polls like this that highlight the problems with seat calculators, IMO. According to Baxter this poll would give a Conservative majority of 96, but with Labour dipping to such an appallingly low vote share I don’t believe any seat calculator could realistically assess the kinds of seats that would fall if such an outcome actually happened.
176 - I can’t get Baxter to open.
Wayne at 174.You are a horrible little man but I find myself in agreement with your postings more and more.
You showed great composure over the weekend.
ANYTHING UP ON THE SKY NEWS YET?
Don’t be silly Wayne!
178. “You are a horrible little man”
Charming!
167 Well Stars after 12 years victory for the GOP in New Jersey. Not a total surpise as a lot of the Democratic machine was otherwise engaged. I think it was pointed out that one place a Democratic stronghold where a lot of officials were arrested turnout was just 39%.
BTW Are you worried by the split in NY. Seems a hugely dangerous precedent. Upset with the Presidential nominee? Run against him anyway.
178
Thank you,
I am waiting for a few weeks and 2-3 more polls before I draw any conclusions and provide a measured response!
176. GIN
There’s a lot of uncertainty about the next election.
Con 300-400 ?
Lab 150-250 ?
LibDem 50-75 ?
Provides betting opportunites though!
171 Its not only unhelpful to Labour , it’s more than helpful to others. Presume its the way the questions are asked as that does seem to have a major impact but also wonder if the recurrence of Expenses, the lack of that in Queens Speech, has boosted the reaction again.
Oh Mike, Yesterday Rod Liddle called you (and us)
“penniless dumbo nerds at Political Betting who cannot see the wood for the trees”
Apparently the MORI poll proved him right, and us wrong
http://www.spectator.co.uk/rodliddle/5562548/whys-it-unravelling-for-dave.thtml
175 - Particularly when the IMF chief has today effectively warned of a double dip Armagideon recession.
177
Trying using a tin opener !
Love soup lol
185 - OOOOOhhh
It’s WAR
188 - It’s fighting talk.
185 TSE. That’s fighting talk from Rod Liddle.
The last time anyone challenged the pockets of pb.com was the blowhard PPC for Torbay.
We sent the halfwit on his way with a flea in his ear.
189 - Can we sue?
186 - Anywhere we can get together and publicly ridicule Mr Liddle’s pathetic attempts at poll prediction?
191 - We can.
Haven’t see a link to this before.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Interactive-Graphics/Poll-Tracker
This is part of the blurb from the linking page.
This is why we compile the Sky Poll Tracker which calculates a weighted monthly average of the national polls.
Before this latest poll is added to the November polls support for the two main parties is Conservative 40.3% and Labour 27.5% - a Tory lead of 12.8 percentage points.
Adding the Ipsos MORI poll to the mix changes the figures but only slightly.
185 - Liddle’s wife found v–gra in his pocket rather than a betting slip.
Yet she hadn’t seen the wood for months.
Am I allowed to be cautious about both of the last two polls?
Lets look at them together, IPSOS MORI on left and Angus on right:
Con 37 39
Lab 31 22
Lib 17 21
Oth 15 18
The question is why the massive variation in Labour.
The Con figure is + /- 2 points
LibDem are + / - 4 points - the edge of a margin of error.
Others are + / - 3 points, so within a reasonable margin.
Labour are + / - 9 points. Why????
When the others are all just about within expectations this one rogue figire for labour is perplexing. Either or niether could be right!
185
Oh I sent him a four page email today and took him apart bit by bit, he’s gone back down the hole in the ground in search of Alice and the rabbits!
188, 9 - its good to be insulted by someone with such scruples isn’t it.
WOW, climategate gets a slot on C4 News. Would like some polling on this in a week or so.
185. Rod Liddles an old media hack. And when its pointed out to him that he doesn’t know half as much as he thinks he does, he just writes insults! But the world is changing. There was a time when he’d have wrote this nonsense in a newspaper somewhere and it would have all gone unchallenged. Not any more. Blogs like this one are actually making people like Liddle redundant.
Rod Liddle = LOL
Liddle = The Past
Ezio and Smithson combo = The Future
181- Re: the NJ race… The result really did surprise me. With all of Corzine’s financial advantages, incumbency, union GOTV muscle, and blue state terrain advantages, it was tough to see how a solid yet bland candidate like Christie could win. Right to the end, I expected Corzine to eke out a win and was pleasantly surprised that it didn’t happen. As I’ve said before, though, I don’t have very high hopes for much “hope ‘n change” in Trenton. I hope Christie will surprise me again.
Re: the NY race. We have yet to see just how much of a precedent it proves to be. On the one hand, you could argue that it will plant a seed in the minds of conservative populists all over the country that the time is ripe to run third-party insurgent candidacies. On the other hand, this would only materialize or matter if their candidacies can catch fire. Hoffman was able to trounce the official GOP candidate because he was able to successfully argue to mainstream GOP voters that she was at least as far to the left as the Democrat in the race. After all, why do you think that Kos and ACORN endorsed the Republican? My hunch is that you won’t see little Hoffmans springing up all across the electoral map because the circumstances present in NY-23 are unlikely to rematerialize elsewhere (candidate selection by a committee rather than by primary, GOP selects a candidate who is a down-the-line social and fiscal Obama-supporting liberal, etc.). Still, the race will serve as a cautionary tale about the dangers of third party candidacies, both for the Republican Party and for their would-be conservative third-party opponents. As for a third-party conservative candidacy in 2012, well, it’s just way too soon to say (Lou Dobbs is making noises, but that’s a far cry from a campaign).
I conclude from these polls that the Conservative vote share has dropped a few % compared to the period leading into the summer.
What has got worse for Labour is that their vote has declined even more.
The question is where are some of the Others going to vote at the GE? Anti Labour or Anti the large parties?
192. It seems the Speccie thread is still open. Let the games begin
‘Penniless’, moi ! I turned over more money in 110 minutes one night in Nov 2007 than Rod Liddle would turn over in nine lifetimes, unless inflation takes over in a big way.
Bring ‘im on !
200 - Indeed, it’s interesting from my own experience, I’ve stopped reading the articles that accompany polling info in newspapers. I just look at the headline figures, and when the fieldwork dates.
The analysis on the polls, by Anthony Wells, OGH and the rest of you on here, provides a lot better insight than let’s say Andrew Porter’s take on an opinion poll in the telegraph.
Labour have virtually no chance of matching Major’s 1997 share of 31.4% (GB).
It’s funny how we’re brainwashed into believing the Tories were so unpopular in 2001 when in fact Hague’s share in 2001 of 32.7% was only 3.5% less than Blair’s “historic third-term” winning share in 2005.
201. How much support do you think Lou Dobbs could get? His followers seem very enthusiastic, but I’ve yet to actually meet one. Democrats think he’s a racist right-winger, and Republicans think he’s a big spending liberal.
174. “Core” was the wrong word to use seeing as i’m actually talking about what’s happening with people who *used to be* Labour’s core vote. Point being there’s a percentage of people who used to be core Labour and now there’s a significant chunk of them who haven’t settled anywhere and bounce all over the place. I think this is behind a lot of the volatility.
That’s the way to do it!
201 That is true but a lot of GOPers had to take a deep breath and back McCain despite strong reservations. They were rewarded by the highest number of votes for a beaten nomineee ever and a base to rebuild from. Now imagine a 3rd party runner? It still must be a concern for the GOP that a crowded field and another McCain type nominee as a result could lead to that. After all how is Pawlenty or any other senior GOPer going to plausibly call for party unity under such circumstances with the NY precedent.
206 - I still think that the scale of the decline in turnout from ‘92 to ‘97 to ‘01/’05 hasn’t been satisfactorily explained. The reasons for that, and whether it is a permanent switch or just reflective of the one sided nature of the elections, is the great unknown at the next election.
Because whilst one can still see UNS hanging on as a reasonable predictor on a 60% turnout, all bets really are off if there is any sort of a serious rise.
Mike, I think you should do a thread replying to Rod Liddle’s slurs that we’re
“penniless dumbo nerds at Political Betting who cannot see the wood for the trees”
The comments will be interesting and fun.
207- I must admit I haven’t really followed Lou Dobbs’ career, and I don’t watch his program. However, on the brief occasions that I have seen him, he looks pretty boring and angry, not to mention a bit old. At least Ross Perot was engaging and folksy, while Jesse Ventura was charisma personified. So, apart from his ideas (on which I can’t claim to be an expert), he doesn’t exactly seem ideal presidential candidate material.
I think turnout will probably rise by at least 5% in most Tory seats at the next election, whereas it may not rise at all or only slightly in Labour’s safe seats. That will once again mean a greater disparity between votes and seats.
Early swing from Nutcase Independent to Tory…
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2009/11/cameron_and_iai.html
Eagles do not strain at gnats. Even Screaming Eagles.
167 I thought the general view is that the right will gain ground in the Regionals.
181 I had thought that being “otherwise engaged” in New Jersey was not necessarily a disadvantage, when it came to being re-elected.
206 That’s an interesting point. Between 1997-2005 there were big swathes of the country that loathed New Labour.
Mike. I will personally spot the halfwitted Liddle 30 Seats to Labour for 10k and lodge the stake if he does the same.
That is to say if CON get 300 Seats and Labour 271 he wins. If CON get 300 and Labour 269 I win…….and the Speaker doesn’t count as a Tory !
210 - A recent poll showed that McCain has a strong challenger to his senate seat, JD Hayworth, who appears to be more in tune with the Republicans on immigration.
McCain 45% Hayworth 43%
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/20/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5725304.shtml
The precedent of not having supported your party’s candidate, however much they weren’t liked, is a pretty big one to break. When such loyalty goes then the principle of not standing against your party is weakened. And when you party’s recent presidential candidate is seen as too liberal…
As well as Rod Liddle and James Macintyre’s spectacular displays of idiocy today, “Mad” Mel Phillips also jumped on the MORI poll bandwagon with a ridiculous Mail article and follow-up blog http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/5563086/tories-wake-up.thtml
I particularly love how she quotes a reader email (from someone who sounds like he’s out of the 19th century) as if that proves her point. Ancedote is not the singular of data Melanie…
216 - Very true. I just feel the honour of OGH and this site has been sullied by Mr Liddle, and that’s just not on.
And I’ve remembered, I’m going to the spectator’s carol concert in a couple of weeks time. Where Mr Liddle will be. I’ll be happy to pass on some messages to him.
FWIW I’ve thought Labour are at about 25/26 in reality - I think both these polls are at each extreme.
Staggering today at the CBI that GB, Cameron and Clegg from the reports I’ve read, didn’t have a word to say about the biggest problem in the economy - private debt. Like Obama, they’re all so deluded to think that just giving the banks a wodge of cash is going to stimulate the economy. It’s just sitting there as reserves on the banks balance sheets because they can’t lend it out - no one wants to borrow, because they’re up to their eyeballs in debt. Getting the money direct into peoples pockets would be far more stimulative - see Steve Keen of University of Western Sydney for an explanation - one of the few sane economists around that foresaw the crash. Just shows how out of touch all our political masters are!
199 - fantastic news - what did they say about Climategate?
202 “Anti Labour or Anti the large parties?”
I think that’s precisely what it will boil down to on the day.
Having seen these two polls, I’d imagine the ‘true’ picture is somewhere in between : Labour in the mid to high 20s, and the Tories in the high 30s to low 40s.
So roughly that 13-or-so point lead that a number of pollsters have been projecting for a little while now.
208,
your excused for now, but do enjoy your adventure!
211 I think the era of mega Labour polling dominance allied to utterly certain results as opposed to 92 explains a lot. AS for earlier landslides 83 and 87 are explained by first the Falklands effect and second in 87 highly fluctuating polls of that era bringing some uncertainty leading to greater turnout. Remember Clement Freud ascribed his surpise result to concern that just maybe Kinnock could do something after all in 87. By contrast no one had doubts 97 onwards.
Well this is really more like the sort of polling one would expect.
Seems Mori was just a single rouge poll. So all of those poor labour types who hoped it was real will be feelin rather sad today.
poor saps
224. Remember though, the most accurate poll is always the one that shows Labour doing the worst.
218 - LOL, that’s tight of you, URW, though of course he might accept
I was going to let him have Tory majorities under Major’s on his side, though admittedly to somewhat smaller stakes!
222 - That it was ludicrously trumped up by people who don’t understand what they are reading.
How are internet polls conducted?
210. The GOP won’t have a problem in 2012 with these right-wing candidates as they are almost certainly to have somebody that at least professes to support those principles. I doubt they will be harmed too much by it in 2010 either, albeit with a couple of exceptions in the Senate. That year is likely to be a base election and motivating the angry right and the centre staying home will probably achieve a better result than the reverse. The harm to the GOP will happen in the longer term as young people who have come to politics in the last eight years cement their Democrat-leaning views, and new voters increasingly lean towards the party coming across as more moderate.
185: ‘…MORI poll proved him right, and us wrong’
I hate to say it but Liddle may be correct. I’m detecting worrying signs that the public at large are starting to warm to Gordon Brown, albeit as a figure of condescension and pity. I’m hearing that he has ’suffered enough’ and that there’s something ‘dour but dependable’ about this ‘Son of Manse’. Labour needs to get Brown on the TV every waking minute, those saggy jowls wobbling, rolling those big, round, puppy-dog eyes. We could be in for another five years of Gordon. Frightening, yes, but not out of the question.
217 Did you see that reply re Wales?
230 - They have a panel, which they email to say there is a poll that needs filling in, and you fill it in.
They then weight it appropriately.
186 I saw that on Channel 4 news, but they also mentioned that Gordon had secured the IMF 100 millions of pounds. Also they showed Adair “Gordon’s poodle” Turner (who clearly the Tories will put out of a job) trying to appear neutral in a support the government type way.
I wonder how much of the deficit will be cut by removing Gordon’s place men you know the ACPO bloke and the DPP bloke Adair, Lambert and I am sure many more.
The sad thing about Rod Liddle is that he seems to have read pb but learnt nothing.
Perhaps he is a bit thick.
233 - Yet, the latest opinion shows a Tory lead of 17% and Labour just one point ahead of the Lib Dems
210- I doubt the GOP will run a candidate in 2012 who has as many problems with the base as McCain did. That’s part of the reason that I think Romney is overrated for 2012. Another note: although it’s impossible to predict the form that any serious third-party presidential bids may take in 2012, I will add that, historically, major third-party candidacies almost always spring from divisions or dissention within the incumbent party, as in 1948, 1968, 1980, 1992, and 2000 (John Anderson in 1980 was a Republican before he ran for president, but he ran a center-left campaign that attracted more support from the left than it did from the right).
o/t Strange turn of phrase from Brogan describing Thatcher’s reception at No 10 today:
“[Brown] recalled the visit she made to No10 two years ago at the height of the 2007 election scare.”
Makes the election sound like swine flu.
Suffolk West MP is stepping down - could be a nice opportunity for Iain Dale?
well, the Labour excitment lasted a long time then.
normal service is resumed, Labour resume their death dive.
Oh well, what a shame…. NOT
185. What a prat Liddle is.
Here’s the Tory group leader,in all his finery.
The herd must be proud
Newsnight has discovered that when Mr K#minski attended a public meeting in Jedwabne in 2001 to oppose the idea of an apology, he encouraged local people to blame the Jews for the deportations to Russia between 1939 and 1941.
Maria Mazurczyk, a member in 2001 of the Committee to Defend the Good Name of Jedwabne, said of Mr K~minski:
“I remember at the meeting he invited older people who remembered those times, those who had been driven out to Siberia, to say that they had not just been driven out because of the Russians, but above all because of their neighbours, the Jews.”
Some fun comments starting to appear here;
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2009/11/160-labour-fight-poll-begins
233 “I’m hearing that he has ’suffered enough’”
But that sentiment is usually followed by a trip to the vets. Maybe it’s a plea to the Labour Party to do the decent thing.
Or as it said in a Larsen cartoon, with a guy who had a pet ginat beetle, “take the old fella out into the back yard - and squish him…”
238. Odds on this poll, which shows Labour in danger of third place, featuring on the BBC news at ten?
243. Tim, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, what all of this Latvian nazi stuff reveals is that we shouldn’t be in the EU at all. Then we wouldn’t need to have anything to do with any of these weirdo’s.
Nice result, unfortunate the Tories slipped below 40 though. Tasty for the Lib Dems.
Have to see more, but I still think the 6pt lead was a rogue.
Also, does Macintyre have a nickname yet?
233. I quite like these reverse Adrian Harper efforts, Stark. Keep it up.
245. MM - I was just about to post the same thing. Surely this is ‘put him out of his misery’ stuff, not ‘give him five more years’.
244 - I see Morus of this parish is offering Mr MacIntyre a wager.
248 - “unfortunate the Tories slipped below 40 though”
They were on 38% in the last poll from this organisation, thus +1.
239. “I doubt the GOP will run a candidate in 2012 who has as many problems with the base as McCain did.”
True, but I also doubt they’ll run a candidate who has anything like as much potential appeal to centrists as McCain did.
242 He’s the left’s Jeremy Clarkson [ie. poor man's version].
Career based on being controverial and thinking himself amusing.
252, my mistake, thought it was -1. Still marginally unfortunate to be below a psychological threshold though.
246 - I’m sure it’s not newsworthy enough.
251 - I’ve just offered Liddle one, though I doubt the Speccie will publish it:
Picking and choosing your polls, Liddle? There’s been one showing a lead of 10% and one of 6%, interspersed with lots of 14s. And today’s politicalbetting-commissioned poll has a 17% Tory lead once more.
Since I’m not penniless or a dumbo [willing to plead no contest to the nerd part], you can have £1000 at evens that Cameron doesn’t do as well as Major - i.e. he doesn’t get a majority of 21 seats or more.
Let me know if you accept and I’ll arrange to lodge the money with your indulgent publishers.
Did the MORI poll feature on BBC News? If it did, this one should too. Not holding my breath though.
228. GIN: Remember though, the most accurate poll is always the one that shows Labour doing the worst.
Well, OGH is certainly putting all his eggs in one basket!
251. Totally brill. Go Morus.
I love my betters.
255 - And all F1 Fans, some good news
Silverstone Holdings’ managing director says a deal for the track to host next year’s British Grand Prix is imminent.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/8374911.stm
Of course Rod Liddle is the man who, despite living in London, said he didn’t know of anyone who’d voted Labour in the 2005 election.
Important are the movements from the last Angus poll from the 5th of November: Cons plus 1, Lab minus 2, Lib Dems plus 1.
NOTE: on the 5th of November Yougov released a poll showing Con 41, Lab 27, Lib Dems 17.
If we apply these movements to the Yougov poll it would show Con 42, Lab 25, Lib Dems 18. This I suspect this is very near the real position.
The ICM poll for the 15th of Nov showed Con 42 Lab 29, Lib Dems 19. This suggests that the flucuations are due to indecisive ‘other’ supporters. They are indeed a very indecisive bunch of who have changed minds 9 times in the past 18 months. I suspect that in the end they will divide fairly equally between the 3 main parties ultimately making little difference to the end result.
254. But Clarkson can occasionally be likeable, self-deprecating and funny. I think the left can do a bit better on that score than Rod Liddle. (Always assuming Liddle can even be defined as left - as others have pointed out, he’s always going on about ‘political correctness’).
271. Thank goodness for that. I thought the British Grand Prix was slipping away.
oh sweet Tony Lloyd re elected unopposed - Gordo at the election pleeeease!!!
Details of Morus’ wager please.
259. I recall Mike saying a few months ago that he thought his golden rule might be broken at the next GE due to the changes in polling methodology.
257 I wonder if Rod ever comments on here, among us penniless nerds? Obviously reads the comments because he picked up on the “is it a rogue?” flavour.
225. There’s no adventure and no Alice in Wonderland. In terms of what the people i’m talking about will do on the day it matters that they are ex-core Labour voters but not ex-core Labour people.
267 -
“Forgive my not offering you a wager - I’m abroad, and it’s illegal here. If you’re still offering when I visit the UK in January, there’ll be a four-figure offer on the table…
Best,
Morus”
261, hurrah!
266, almost as if the PLP are a gang of limpwristed bedwetters.
“We’ll oust you, Gordon, we will!”
Pathetic. Even the Lib Dems can shaft leaders when they want to.
Who will be first to helpfully point out that “David Cameron still hasn’t sealed the deal”
Funny how this new poll hasnt been mentioned on the BBC or SKY or doesnt it fit thier news agenda !
272. The Libs are more ruthless than anybody! They knifed two leaders within two years! That quite something.
Yay, Polly’s latest column, on how to deal with the deficit. Not to cut spending, but increase taxation.
Cool the cutting fisticuffs – take a long, hard look at tax
As Brown and Cameron clash on how to slash the deficit, a new blueprint spells out how tax reform could curb it fairly
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/23/cuts-tax-deficit-brown-cameron
Proper poll!
ARS rules!
Labour =
266 I’d reckon there’s quite a few Labour backbenchers wish they’d known about OGH’s poll first! They have all been caught on the hop by the “hung Parliament” narrative that took hold for about an hour and a half…
273. “Who will be first to helpfully point out that “David Cameron still hasn’t sealed the deal””
The Tories do remain below 40% - if they can’t even break the 40% barrier when Labour are in the low 20s it does seem to indicate a lack of, well, overwhelming enthusiasm for Cameron.
The more I see and hear about the floods in Cumbria and the effects of the flood in Cockermouth, the more I despair of modern Britain
Here we have the village of Cockermouth cut off from its hinterland by the destruction of 2 bridges. The closure of Calva Bridge in Workington, which has been condemned to demolition, has made things worse for the folk of the area.
The authorities in the area have been saying that it will take months, if not years for all the bridges can be restored. In the meantime school children and shoppers will have a 40 or 90 mile diversion, (take your pick) to get to their respective destinations.
What the hell is going on?
During the war the British Army put up Baily Bridges within 24/48 hrs to cross rivers far wider and as fast flowing as the small river going through these villages. Why cannot they do now?
Or have the Army too lost engineering expertise as well as their equipment?
- “Labour only one point ahead of the Lib Dems”
HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HAAAAAAAA
Love it Mike!
I wish I’d bought those Nokia shares…
I was disbelieving of the lead being 6%, because I don’t want to believe that.
I daren’t believe it’s 17%, mind. I just don’t quite *feel* it.
These are interesting polling days.
And there concludes possibly the rubbishest “analysis” of any poll in the history of the universe.
Apart from Rod Liddle’s, naturally.
103 - “They are buggered arent they?
Yep
269. Judging by the number of times I have seen comments made on here echoed eerily in newspaper columns, I would guess we have a fair few hacks regularly trawling the site.
280 or as wwe say in England,
“penniless dumbo nerds at Political Betting who cannot see the wood for the trees”
I’m penniless (in relative terms compared to Mr Liddle) and I’m cetainly a nerd (and proud of it) - but I do resent the “dumbo” bit…
Are we expecting a ComRes poll tonight?
If these results happened at an election, oldrightie would become rich and Clegg’s lot could share a taxi with labour!
279 At very least footbridges across the rivers and bus services to key centres with perhaps shuttle buses to stores, or maybe secure parking so residents across the river can drive round once leave their cars then go home by walk over footbridge or go across by boat.
244 Macintyre could soon compete with Tim and Sion Simon for comedy delusional labour supporter of the year.
279, a few weeks ago I was talking to my uncle, who went to Sicily on holiday. Apparently the bailey bridges [capitalised?] lasted for decades after the war.
It is pathetic.
I can see that Rod Liddle post becoming as much of pb legend as this one.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
289, unfair. tim is ultra persistent and Sion Simon wrote epic verse. Macintyre has a long way to go, but I admit he’d made a good start.
Where’s “Tin and Gag him” probably running around with a big clock on a chain around their necks with The Mad Brown Hatter altogether in wonderland !
Oh I do love watching a soppy film now and then!
and before anyone considers sueing (the other) Rod.
…over to Dimbleby…
“well, with thirteen results in, the PB returning officers suggest we are heading for the first hung parliament since 1974..”
Forecast
Con 301
Lab 266
LD 52
Nats 10
Oth 3
NI 18
Tories 22 seats short of a majority
http://tinyurl.com/4p3mwq
292 Perhaps we need more categories of delusional Comedy Labour supporter.
Michael Schumacher’s prospective return to Formula One with the new Mercedes team was merely a media fantasy, according to team principal Ross Brawn.
“The issue now haunts the media, I know,” Brawn told German publication Bild, “but there is nothing in it. The media are trying to put together a dream. Michael would have returned to the cockpit for Ferrari, but only temporarily. He has no ambitions to start a new career.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/nov/23/mercedes-brawn-nico-rosberg-schumacher
243 I think you’ve flogged that dead horse, long enough. Even the Guardian seem to have given up, now.
291 It’s very good of the New Statesman to collect their writings in one place… Perhaps they should do an annual supplement, “to collect and cherish for always”.
290 - Looks like it’s going to happen
My gut instinct says we should treat this poll with caution, just as with the MORI one - the Labour figure just looks too low. I have more faith in the Conservative figure.
Yes, Labour are in almost permanent crisis mode, but they are starting to form a moderately cohesive, though crazy, anti-Tory narrative.
I suspect the real lead is around 12-14%.
Lib Dems? Who knows?
287. oldrightie: If these results happened at an election, oldrightie would become rich and Clegg’s lot could share a taxi with labour!
Electoral Calculus gives LD 67 (no change)…
300, I agree, but I think this closer to the truth than the 6pt effort.
Be fun to see the next ICM.
301
Agreed. Lead is about 12-14%.
294 - Who’s predicting no anti-Labour swing in Dorset South???
295 But why no early declaration from Sunderland, Rod? Recount??
People, we need more results, to see how Rod’s software holds up to the rigours of election night.
More results!
167 - Stars and Stripes
Indeed the current polling numbers for Sarkozy are not very good.
Regional elections seem set to be bad for the UMP. However, starting from a disastrous base (2 of 26 regions), the UMP will almost certainly do no worse than in 2004.
You also have to factor in the fact that in most regions Greens and the communists will have their own lists in the first round (not united with socialists like in 2004), creating possible divisions before the 2d round of voting.
On current polling , it seems difficult to see how the UMP can win back more than a handful of regions. The most probable are
-Champagne (only 2% plurality in 2004, with the FN taking 19.7% in a 3-way second round)
- Ile de France, Lorraine, Basse Normandie, Auvergne, Provence, if the FN’s decline is confirmed.
As for the presidential poll numbers, 28% is not very good base for a second round. However, this poll included Villepin as a candidate and credited him of 8%, coming for a good part from the same centre-right electorate. Caution is necessary regarding Villepin before the end of the Clearstream trial (in January).
Polling in France in general is quite rare so far from elections, except for general approval polling. In these, Sarkozy maintain mediocre but not awful numbers. LH2 poll published today 23 Nov: 42 positive / 54 negative
The LHC makes its first big step:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8375486.stm
243 tim. Just ignore Sean Fear at 298. On this issue he is ignorant.
I have never thought for a moment that you were not totally correct on this issue.
What you have to realise is that for these people it is a mere Party Political issue and they are defending their Party.
They are mere Sunday drivers….day trippers, and of little consequence in the bigger picture.
309 - So you think it has betting implications?
The reason i am certain the is about right is that frankly everyone i’ve spoken too is so pissed off at the Labour stitch up to the EU lisbon treaty being signed off, its so fresh in our minds.
305 Re Dorset South-as a Bournemouth East resident I visited Weymouth this summer- Weymouth and Portland make up over half of dorset South.
Work is going ahead apace for the yachting of 2012 Olympics-facilities,a new by-pass road leading to Weymouth.
Whilst I would still expect Jim Knight to lose when the GE comes,I firmly believe the swing will be well below the national average
309 - If the Tory group in Europe implodes through it Leaders extremism being exposed then it has implications for Hagues career and the credibility of Camerons foreign policy judgement.
I doubt the Tories are fussed at the extremists, they have to defend them now wnd cover up for Hagues laziness and lack of due diligence.
The Czech ODS have this in their hands.
Besides that, K#aminski is scum.
End of story.
Early to declare marginal seats at the next election are likely to be in places like Battersea, Birmingham Edgbaston, Torbay, Vale of Clwyd, Cleethorpes, Tamworth.
310 alex. Nothing to do with betting whatsoever and everything to do with Polish anti-semitism.
In no way does this reflect badly on the stupid Tories, it merely reflects upon their poor judgement.
I will be voting Tory notwithstanding, because they are the only major Party not shamelessly courting the Muslim vote to the detriment of the Jewish people.
307. “As for the presidential poll numbers, 28% is not very good base for a second round.”
That wouldn’t be very far short of what he got in 2007, would it? Not that I really want to be talking up Sarkozy’s chances of re-election, but I dare say there aren’t many French people around.
Re Climate Change
There was a good climate change debate on the Daily Politics between two professors today see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/8374523.stm
One was saying that there was no obserable link between the CO2 level and the temperature level. The other said there was but was also fronm the University of East Anglia whose work is suspect following the recent hacking of its data and emails.
309 URW. I see… so Tim highlighting it isnt a party politcal issue for him?. Interesting “newspeak”…. tim will still be talking about it on election day. King Canute springs to mind.
313 - so Sean is not “ignorant”. He is expressing a view that this issue will make no material difference to UK politics/voting intentions. Do you disagree?
313. If that’s a serious comment, I’d be very interested to know how New Labour’s foreign policy has in any way prioritised the interests of ‘Muslims’ over ‘Jews’ (I take it ‘Jews’ = ‘Israel’).
300. Maybe it is.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6636515/Floods-in-Cumbria-Army-could-build-WW2-Bailey-bridges.html
And about time. If, and it’s a big if, they actually do it.
TSE’s new car unveiled:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8374491.stm
Scientists are working on where to fit the twin baby seats…
316 MTF. This may come as a major shock to you but I have infinitely more respect for tim than I have for the Tory herd.
Of course he is making a political point but I am sure he is making other more serious points as well.
318. Sorry James but you can be very thick at times.
URW, who ordinarily I deplore, did’t mention Labour FP. And in this case Jews=Jews. So stop fishing.
316 - If I was a Tory I’d be as ashamed at their links with Kaminski as I was about Livingstones links with Qaradawi.
In fairness to Rod Liddle, I am a penniless nerd. Still, if he read the right thread, he will have hopefully read that I accused him of reckless twattery. Hurrah.
321. URW: I am sure he is making other more serious points as well.
Hardly.
He exists to troll, and his betting persona “to fit in” is a sham.
And you continue to fall for it and defend him.
Shame on you.
315. That sounds like the most ridiculous guilt by association.
321 its no a shock URW, you have said as much many times, but tim is flogging a dead horse. He never mentions Labours rather unpleasant allies in Europe . I wonder why?.
280. Instead of promissing £1m of headline grabbing money for Cumbria, Brown ought to have been ordering Royal Engineers to move bridging equipment up to Cumbria to practise emergency bridge building. What use were 25 artillerymen sent up there this morning?
Unless of course the Brown has decided to send the stuff to Afghanistan or sell it to a third world country. If the gaps aren’t filled quickly Brown’s credibility will suffer.
Gracie Fields calls me. Goodnight.
323 So would I, if didn’t believe the Rabbi of Poland more than Labour Party spinners.
322. “URW, who ordinarily I deplore, did’t mention Labour FP. And in this case Jews=Jews. So stop fishing.”
Not fishing at all, it’s difficult to see how else those words could have been interpreted. How else could Labour “court Muslim votes to the detrminent of the Jewish people” is it didn’t puruse a foreign policy that favoured the Arabs over the Israelis? the opposite has been the case. If URW wasn’t talking about Israel his comment was even more wide of the mark.
By the way, does ‘thick’ mean ‘not a Tory’? In that case, I’m a thickie ’til I die.
Laboru are extremely unlikely to poll anywhere near as low at 22%. To do so would be eating very deep into their core support.
The only way such circumstances would occur is via an unprecedented stay at home.
London Statto at 325.For all your studiousness, tim gives you running lessons when it comes to betting.
I didn’t get where I am today by falling for anything.
332. It’s not going to happen, is it?
There is a “permamnent” Bailey bridge at the Imperial War Museum Duxford. Properly maintained they could last for decades
http://s110605900.websitehome.co.uk/dx-field/bailey-bridge1.htm
…dimbleby…
“we’ve just heard a rumour that the Tories have taken Bootle. What’s that you say? ‘a mistake’ I thought so too. That’s definitely a mistake. We’ll just have to wait until we get the next real result…Over to Peter Kellner”
334 - It may.
333. URW: I didn’t get where I am today by falling for anything.
Where you are today? Oh, yes, completely full of your own self-importance.
327. “He never mentions Labours rather unpleasant allies in Europe . I wonder why?”
Apart from the obvious answer that he’s a Labour supporter, there is actually a big difference in that the Tories actively sought out all of their unpleasant allies. Labour are simply long-standing members of an established European political family (as are the Lib Dems and nationalist parties).
Tim is a Labour-supporting leftie. Because he is an unpleasant character, he naturally gravitates towards bitter partisanship and smears: it’s the aspect of politics with which he feels most at home.
His torment and rage on election night will be something to behold.
314- James Kelly
He go 31.18% in 2007. The 30% mark was important psychologically (no one had reached it since Mitterrand in 1988). it would also be bad symbolically for him to have a decreased share as an incumbent.
However, 28% in the polling was where Sarko was in a lot of polls during the campaign. Most pollsters gave him lower shares than the real result because they were overstating Le Pen and the small candidates of the left.
Here was the last average of polls before voting in 2007
sarkozy 28.17 royal 23.92 bayrou 18.08 le pen 13.83
the real result, compared to the polls, was the following:
sarkozy 31.18 (+3.01) royal 25.87 (+1.95) bayrou 18.57 (+0.49) le pen 10.44 (-3.39)
CSA for Le Parisien
sarko 27(=) royal 26(+1) bayrou 17(-2) le pen 16(+1)
2nd round NS 50 / SR 50 (=)
I
Yes,Statto, I had a Reggie Perrin moment. I appraise you to a tee, but I will bet you don’t even begin to fathom me.
You are a decent psephologist with a deep dislike of me for no good reason and you are a very poor judge of the betting prowess of others.
339 There’s also the point that the marxist mass murder in eastern europe from 1917 to 1941 has been so swept under the carpet for the last 60 years that people who deny or minimize or even justify it barely raise an eyebrow.
339
Are you serious?
92- my great grandfather served with Chavasse, I believe he was one of two stretcher bearers who worked with him. I’m told that he would have been mentioned in despatches but the officers got killed. Obviously I can’t testify to that myself, I’m not as old as Jack W. I’ve always thought that Liverpool should have made more of Chavasse, but there’s a new statue at Abercrombie square which looks really good. When I hear people like Beckham and Michael Jackson being described as heroes it really annoys me, Chavasse was a hero because he died saving other people. Being a singer or footballer doesn’t quite match up to that.
336. RodCrosby: “we’ve just heard a rumour that the Tories have taken Bootle. What’s that you say? ‘a mistake’ I thought so too. That’s definitely a mistake. We’ll just have to wait until we get the next real result…Over to Peter Kellner”
Wonder what Ave it would make of that…
339 What an incredible cop out.
We didn’t seek them out, they found us????Better still we are related?
Principles running deep there James.
339 - And the Tories made one of the extremists leader of their group.
342. URW: a deep dislike of me for no good reason
I have a deep dislike of you because you think you’re better than us - and because you think you’re better than our genial host.
I wouldn’t call that “no good reason”, but YMMV.
If you missed Clarkeson’s column the other day - it is spot on and as ever provocative
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/jeremy_clarkson/article6926731.ece
“Call me a spoilsport but I’m glad my dad wasn’t a lesb!an”
309/11/13 Choosing between who is the more raving, Tim or URW is a close call when it comes to the Kam$nsk$ affair. There are Jewish posters on this site (me for one) as well as non-Jewish posters who are not ‘Sunday drivers’ not ‘indifferent’ to anti-semitism and not ‘ignorant’. The idea that Sean Fear is ignorant on this subject is frankly absurd. I recommend you get over this over inflated fixation on a topic that has been ramped out of all perspective. Why not go and see A Serious Man and try to gain a sense of Jewish normality?
344. Er, yes!
347. I don’t know what the criteria is for entry to the socialist group, but I doubt if every single national party can exercise an absolute veto. (That would mean, for instance, that Mark Durkan could have singlehandedly put the kybosh on the Polish Social Democrats - not very likely). For you to pretend that there is no difference between a few undesirables on the fringes of the Socialist group, and the Tories actively seeking out undesirables because they were absolutely essential for the formation of a new group is, I would suggest, the true cop-out here.
348. Kaminski may be a terrible man tim, but does he have as much blood on his hands as Tony Blair?
So tim and James’s position is that they are really bad but we are worse and therefore they can occupy the moral high ground with authority.
Except that we don’t accept your version of their nutterdom but you seem to accept that your’s are loons.
So at worst we are niave or ill informed whereas you are weigh up and measure your cynicism like bags of sugar.
351 YMMV?
357 http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=YMMV
357. SallyC.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=YMMV
Literally, “Your Mileage May Vary,” coming from the small print in (American?) automobile commercials in the 70’s and 80’s. It has come to mean an acknowledgement that the opinion of the poster may not be shared by everyone.
349 LondonStatto
I agree, I’m a very tolerant sort of person so don’t tend to respond to belittling interwebbery. I posted the other day that I find the ‘my bets are bigger than your bets’ willy waving pretty demeaning and frankly bizarre.
If PB was populated only by professional punters who had little insight or feedback from Mr and Mrs Average - I suspect that a) it would have a vanishingly small readership/influence and b) would be a crap sounding board for those looking for an early inside edge.
To make any participant here feel like some lower form of life is counter-productive for all concerned - losing traffic for Mike, loses insight for punters and loses useful/fun debate by the most politically engaged.
*back to AWG thriller following*
354. “actively seeking out undesirables because they were absolutely essential for the formation of a new group”
I am curious what process was followed during the formation of the socialist group. New members were not sought out? They just turned up? And if some of them are “undesirable”, that’s life?
Which of course rather puts a spoke through the lefties argument. The Tories sought out other parties to form a group. The implicit assertion they went looking for “undesirables” is crass.
That’s one hell of a “prison” that Andrews bitch was kept in - stately home would be a better description.
Also, can you imagine a man who’d stabbed and beaten his girlfriend to death being given bail to attend his murder trial? That other bitch called Andrews (Tracey - remember her? - the “road-rage victim”) also got bailed after stabbing her bloke thirty-seven times.
351 Excellent. Tx for that.
As a matter of interest, is there any real advantage to belonging to any kind of group in the European Parliament?
364. MichaelK.
Money.
Interesting take by the economics editor of the Guardian
Don’t despair – Gordon Brown may be on a winner
Labour has good progressive policies but they need to be delivered with conviction
“It’s 10pm on 6 May 2010 and the polls have just closed on election night.
The news begins with a sensational item. Nick Robinson says that a BBC exit poll shows that a last-minute surge by Labour has left the result in the balance. If the exit poll is accurate, Britain is heading for its first hung parliament in 36 years.
Fanciful? Despite yesterday’s Observer poll showing Labour only six points adrift of the Conservatives, that remains the case. It is only one poll and the government has been trailing badly for so long that David Cameron remains a strong favourite to win next spring.
Even so, the Observer findings suggest that Labour supporters already resigned to defeat next spring are being unduly negative. The economy, at last, is on the turn. The threatened rise in the unemployment total will not materialise this side of polling day (if at all) and consumers feel a lot more cheerful about the state of their personal finances than they did six months ago. Traditionally, that sort of economic backdrop would mean a tightening of the political race, and we now may be seeing the start of that happening.
Rogue poll or not, it is still good news for Gordon Brown”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/23/labour-economic-policy-general-eelction
364. Yes, you are entitled to seats on committees.
364 I think they get loads of dosh if there’s enough members from enough countries (not 100% sure).
348 Con gain everything!!!!!
Buh buh?
URW’s still going to vote Tory, everyone. He just doesn’t like Michael Kaminski. That’s ok, right? Did I miss the part where he killed a man?
Meant 357 not 351.
Plato, The fact that money talks makes pb what it is. Even those who don’t bet are reigned in from making outlandish claims because you will be asked to back it up or b off.
Further to my 365, of course I’m oversimplifying, but funding is a big part of it.
But the biggest reason for the formation of ECR was to set the principle of having a parliamentary group opposed to the lazy consensus of the past 30 years.
Tories to pay people to recycle in green revolution
Householders will be rewarded with cash incentives for recycling at home under radical new Conservative plans aimed at tackling global warming.
People will accumulate points for the household waste they recycle and be able to use the points to claim up to £130 a year in vouchers from major retailers like Marks & Spencer and Tesco.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/businessandecology/recycling/6638002/Tories-to-pay-people-to-recycle-in-green-revolution.html
343 How significant for France socially was Sarkozy’s rise? I’m just thinking for all Liberte Egalite and Fraternite the Presidents of the 5th Republic were from the same narrow area. Yet here the French were electing someone whose father arrived in France penniless and started off sleeping rough at the Paris Metro.
369 Leeds are winning Ave it. Hope we can get far enough ahead before Gordon does an election visit.
Gordon’s presence in London is sucking the life out of Charlton.
373 - So how long do we give it until Gordo the Photostat machine copies the idea?
371 Eh? I’m a better and a disappointed shareholder in the three legged PB Mr Smithson donkey.
I’m missing your point - would you expand?
365/7/8. Thanks. I wonder if the money and very slight influence gained is worth it, especially for the Tories.
Btw, in case anyone wondered, I’m not Michal Kaminski.
373 - Seems like a perfectly sensible policy.
Those who don’t recycle pay more, some could call it an upfront fine for everyone, redeemable at M&S.
And the ID chips in the bin plus a database seem vaguely familiar.
At least Osborne doesn’t believe its all a Norwich based conspiracy.
Wells on tonight’s poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2355?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PollingReport+%28UK+Polling+Report%29
Well fuck my old sea boots!
Ipsos-Mori - what a disgrace.
Will Nick Robinson, Combover Crick and the rest of the media be reporting this poll then?!!
309, 315 et al, it is entirely party political. Neither British nor Polish Jews seem to be bothered by K*minski, but left wing activists want to be bothered on their behalf. Fair enough; hurling any bit of mud that they can find is the only tactic that remains for them. They can hardly fight the next election on the basis of their record in government.
As humiliations go, telling a reluctant prime minister to get off stage to make way for the opposition parties must rank high up anybody’s list. But today’s CBI conference was an unforgiving place for politicians of all colours. Telling Gordon Brown his question time was up because the business crowd had a schedule to keep, caught the mood rather nicely.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/23/cbi-brown-cameron-clegg-economic-recovery
377. I would Plato but I suspect I misunderstood your earlier post. :-O
375 you will be up by the time the GE comes!
And then you can play us next season - perhaps in the play off final 2011!
For all of those waiting for a ComRes, from Wells,
“UPDATE: Forgot to say, we are also due a ComRes poll for the Independent… but not tonight.”
376 The drill is to send Liam Byrne out to slag them off tomorrow and then adopt them in two weeks time with Alistair Darling.
Wells in summary.
‘The bottom line is that on the short track record and methodology details we have I’d expect Angus Reid to show Labour a bit lower than companies like ICM and YouGov, so this poll is pretty much in line with the average Conservative lead still being somewhere around 13 or 14 points.’
This poll used 2 000 people.
Ipshit-Morbid asked about 450 people and a greyhound sportng a red rosette.
I rest my case.
381. Exactly right Sean.
383 No worries
386 - Just in time for the PBR then…
381. I think thats the problem for the Kaminski bashers, the fact that the jews arne’t bothered by him. The chief rabbi of Poland has come out and said he see’s Kaminski as a friend of Israel and of the jews of Poland, however he’s somehow extremist and anti-semitic.
360 - Couldn’t agree more. If only these feline paws could master (or even vaguely understand) the betting, I would join in. Till then, I join PB for some entertainment and insight, not cattery. (And what sort of a moniker is LondonStatto anyway)
389 I forgot to mention that Israeli Jews don’t seem to be bothered either.
Perhaps, they’re all suffering from a form of false consciousness.
388 They were canvassing round my area and were handing out sausage rolls to all the local greyhounds - luckily they didn’t have a biro between them
394.
394 Last try. Did you have an opinion on the reply re Tories and why they didn’t end up in Wales as they did in Scotland?
This off Political Betting.com
After the six point lead from Ipsos MORI, we now have a 17 point lead from Angus Reid. The topline figures, as I mentioned in my brief post below, are CON 39%(+1), LAB 22%(-2), LDEM 21%(+1). Others are unchanged on 18%. The poll was conducted over the weekend, so it is the first proper post-Queens speech poll.
The changes from Angus Reid’s last poll are all quite minor, showing a small shift away from Labour but nothing to get excited about. It does, of course, contrast sharply with MORI’s poll, particularly in terms of the level of Labour support.
Angus Reid are just entering UK polling so we don’t have a long track record to judge them by, but looking at their methodology I would expect them to have a tendency to show higher levels of Conservative and Lib Dem support and lower Labour support. I mentioned in my posts on MORI about “false recall”, people’s tendency to inaccurately report how they actually voted in 2005, and that ICM, Populus and ComRes all factor this into their weighting targets. AngusReid do not, implying no false recall at all, and the effect of this is that they weight the Conservatives and Lib Dems slightly higher and Labour slightly lower (though before people get carried away, it is pretty minor). From their three UK polls so far, they also seem to have a tendency to report significantly higher levels of support for minor parties than any of the other pollsters (though ComRes showed a similar figure in their last poll) – I can see no obvious methodological reason to explain the difference.
The bottom line is that on the short track record and methodology details we have I’d expect Angus Reid to show Labour a bit lower than companies like ICM and YouGov, so this poll is pretty much in line with the average Conservative lead still being somewhere around 13 or 14 points.
UPDATE: Forgot to say, we are also due a ComRes poll for the Independent… but not tonight. Presumably we can expect it later in the week.
393 Feline inscrutability is the key
394 I think Mr Blair used ton sup withhim too - but perhaps that doesn’t add/help much.
400. used to sup with him…..
397. Sorry. I’ve forgotten what the original comment was. Could you repost it?
381: ‘They can hardly fight the next election on the basis of their record in government.’
Indeed. The Left will go with personality at the General Election - massively. On one side Brown will be presented as a moth-eaten but lovable teddy bear whom one just can’t bring oneself to chuck in the skip; Cameron and Ozzy, one the other hand, will be slammed as corrupt (Gordon Brown’s assertion) and allies of ‘borderline neo-fascist parties’ (to use Mr Nick Palmer MP’s phrase). The assault from the Left will be brutal and horrifying.
307- Thanks Chris, it’s always good to have your take on the French scene! Maybe the UMP will do no worse in the regionals than they did in 2004, but that isn’t saying much. Sarkozy really seems to have hit upon the toughest part of his presidency so far.
I mentioned in my posts on MORI about “false recall”, people’s tendency to inaccurately report how they actually voted in 2005,
Blimey - do some people really not remember how they voted in 2005? ‘False recall’ huh? Isn’t that usually called lying?
402. Some people will be turned off voting tory, most won’t, and I can see a lot of Labour voters just not showing up in disgust.
Gordon Brown is trying to speak to this cat - but it has a defence mechanism…
http://www.kittyfield.com/fold2.jpg
402. Brutal, horrifying and entirely ineffectual I suspect.
406.Ave it, so does this one
407 It’s all they have….
Tee hee
Labour = LOL
This is a game of Cat’s Cradle alright. You twirl the strings until it comes up with the pattern ‘Tories good,Labour bad’.
For me this has nothing to do with Party politics whatsoever.
It is a question of who I believe. The Chief Rabbi of Poland said bad things about K*minski and then unsaid them.
I believe what the rabbi said.I don’t believe what he unsaid.The fact that the anti-semite supported Israel could well be true and Tories play that as a get out of jail free card and gave the pressurised rabbi a form of words to backtrack on what he said originally. It doesn’t get K*minski out of jail in my book.
404 Labour have a lot voting trollops
Once they have done it, they can’t remember when or where or who.
PB nerds will express it differently, but basically, that’s the theory.
401 - “336 First Plaid. Two main issues the biggest being Language. They have belatedly woken up to what their surveys tell them that they are seen as being a party of and for Welsh speakers and that’s it. Generally speaking it is not a good idea if circa 70% of your in theory target voters thinks even to a tiny degree that you may despise them in reality and doubt their patriotism. They are now frantically running campaigns to say that is not the case party for all whatever your language and so on and senior figures are even daring to make major speeches in English, but as Cameron shows it takes years to change perception and this should have started years ago. Second they lacked the ideological broad front of the SNP. They are very left wing and solidly so and Salmond for instance would never have been elected Leader in PC. As a result Welsh speakers in rural Wales outside their heartlands eg PP and Clwyd West do not support them as you might expect.
The Lib Dems well timing and Leadership. Had they had the Scottish Lib Dem’s leadership of Campbell and Kennedy in the early 90’s the Tories would have been up against it. But until recently their best known symbol was err Lembit who is currently working inadvertently hard to to turn his seat blue. Ironically they have now rising figures in Willott and Williams but it is too late the Tories are now back. The Tories in Wales were most fortunate in their non Labour opponents.”
I mentioned in my posts on MORI about “false recall”, people’s tendency to inaccurately report how they actually voted in 2005,
Blimey - do some people really not remember how they voted in 2005? ‘False recall’ huh? Isn’t that usually called lying?
by PollyB November 23rd, 2009 at 10:01 pm
They were nearly spot on
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2425
http://www.spectator.co.uk/alexmassie/5564371/gordon-brown-is-a-rescue-donkey.thtml
Can’t really argue with this. Cameron needs to spend more time talking about his vision of Britain after the hard times. There also needs to be a cheap or free truly popular policy, like for example the right to request Home working for office workers. i.e something that won’t cost the Government anything and won’t cost business anything(in fact will probably save them money)
For you cat fans. Now this is what i call proper cat pics
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2742259/Big-cats-pose-for-purr-fect-pics.html
393 - What a strange idea, that all Jews think the same, and those who dissent from your view of K~aminski somehow cease to be Jews and become lefties.
It remains to be seen how much more of this stuff will emerge about K~minski
“I remember at the meeting he invited older people who remembered those times, those who had been driven out to Siberia, to say that they had not just been driven out because of the Russians, but above all because of their neighbours, the Jews.”
Oooh, Monbiot has an article on climategate. I had to read the first four paragraphs twice, not believing Monbiot would write them.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cif-green/2009/nov/23/global-warming-leaked-email-climate-scientists?showallcomments=true#end-of-comments
Enjoy
416 those two cats at the top are not believed to be labour voters…
@414:
Most people take at best only a vague interest in politics. Why would they remember something (to them) so trivial half a decade later?
Lloyds axes 800 jobs on Equitable contract loss
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6928239.ece
419 Does Elton own Watford these days?
On the subject of the forthcoming election campaign, I’ve heard a rumour from a friend that Labour will run a poster with the caption ‘Don’t make the same mistake as the Afghans’ and beneath it will be a picture of Hamid Karzai. The blurb will then state how Cameron corruptly intends to fix the taxation laws for the financial betterment of himself and his acquaintances in the ‘posh’ part of London. My friend has a reasonable record on such things, but it would be interesting if a poster with Labour connections - tim, Mr Nick Palmer MP - could vouch for this rumour’s veracity.
415. Good grief, the nonsense thats been written off the back of one bloomin’ opinion poll!
417. What jews or jewish groups have called Kaminski anti-semitic?
Thats for 419, sorry.
426 Random!!
417. tim, please explain again why atrocities committed in the early 1940s are the burning political issue of the day, but atrocities committed in and since 2003 leading to the killing of an absolute minimum 100 000 Iraqi civilians are something to laugh about (but not funny enough to have any form of inquiry about if it can possibly be avoided).
426 i dont think so anymore - he is life chairman or something like it
Ashcroft has - or has had - some interest in watford…
415. How exactly would the tories be able to pressurise the chief rabbi of Poland? You appear to be just making stuff up now.
Ooops I have nearly let it out of the bag!
Part of the secret Ave it operation to infiltrate the north west and bite tim…
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/38/74203550_7c37e1d8c7.jpg
430 Yeah the media are desperate for a narrative change, but massie has a point.
417 Plaid etc. You have posted that at least 3 times over the last couple of days.I think I got your drift the first time, though I guess its not meant for me.
419.Ave it, we went to get one of these, and came home with one like this instead.
429 Tim doesn’t answer questions, he smears, you can’t really expect him to make a coherent case out of such complete rubbish. Milliband almost cried when Poland’s Chief Rabbi said he was telling Porkies on this very subject.
437 Err no. The numbers seem to have altered. Now for 405.
433 Is Watford is a tax haven, Ave It?
@429:
URW?
Though presumably you meant “somebody who matters”.
Good grief! I’ve just stummbled upon this website averring that David Cameron is a Nazi!
http://thedeadsheepofquentindavies.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html
http://thedeadsheepofquentindavies.blogspot.com/2008/02/cameron-is-nazi-part-ii.html
438.Oops, and came home with one like this instead.
Look where we have come from since Sept 2007.
YouGov poll, David Cameron, Mr. Brown, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell
——————————————————————————–
Former Conservative candidate Iain Dale wrote on his blog late last night (brief edited extracts) “The YouGov poll (in the Telegraph) puts Labour on 39 points, the Conservatives on 33 and the Liberal Democrats on 16. It means Labour has dropped just one point and the Tories and the Liberal Democrats stay on the same level as last month. The Telegraph poll asked who would make the best Prime Minister. Forty two per cent said Mr. Brown and only 20 per cent David Cameron. Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell impressed only six per cent. When asked who would run the economy better Labour polls 36 per cent to the Tories’ 28.”
http://www.democracyforum.co.uk/general-election-2009-2010/41730-labour-would-win-landslide-says-new-yougov-poll-telegraph.html
I’m bored of Labour vs Tories. A far more fundamental and important question must first be settled.
Namely, we hold this truth to be self-evident:
CATS ≥ DOGS
Discuss.
433 We could do with some of Ashcroft’s money down at the City, to save our faltering season.
Oops that should obviously read
CATS > DOGS
Looks like the Telegraph are running with the Daily Rant story of civilians being used to “solve” murder cases.
446.wibbler, cats will vote Tory, and the dogs will go Labour.
438/444 mew!
441 it will be, like the rest of Britain, when CAMO wins!!!!
415, 421 That’s very moving of you, but in the absence of any apparent Jewish objection to Kaminski, I think the issue is closed.
442 Now, Now you know URW has an ego bigger than the national debt, this belittling of our greatest ever gambler will cost you you know. He might even start calling you a member of the herd and praising tim and stuff like that.
451
If you put this poll into UKPR’s swingometer you get Labour winning 191 seats. That’s almost the same number of seats as the Tories won in 2005 with 33% of the vote, 11% higher than this poll!!!
I think that the poll is fairly near where a GE tomorrow would be. My bet would be 39-24-21. I still think that the Tory majority will be less than the straight figures predict. They have a monumental mountain to climb in the North of England where I suspect the time for a change vote will favour the LDs. Why would you wish to vote Tory in Newcastle or Liverpool?
452 - Its always been closed for you, as opinion of Jews who disagree with your stance is rejected.
447 not taking the p**s - its always the same with cardiff - good start can’t keep it going!
456. I haven’t heard any Jews calling Kaminski anti-semitic, just Milliband and his buddies.
447 not taking the p**s - its always the same with cardiff - good start can’t keep it going!
by Ave it November 23rd, 2009 at 10:35 pm
Sounds a bit like my wife speaking !!!!!
446. Wibbler - at primary school we had two big gangs, the Cool Cats and the Hot Dogs.
Did Pb’s Tim get his own report on Newsnight?
Watch Tim Whewell’s report
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8374686.stm
456. tim, please explain again why atrocities committed in the early 1940s are the burning political issue of the day, but atrocities committed in and since 2003 leading to the killing of an absolute minimum 100 000 Iraqi civilians are something to laugh about (but not funny enough to have any form of inquiry about if it can possibly be avoided).
“There is no evidence that Mr Kaminski has ever espoused fascist or Nazi ideology.”
“One well-known political scientist, Rafal Pankowski, author of a forthcoming book on the Polish radical right, believes it is fair to call Mr Kaminski an extreme right-winger, but not an anti-Semite.”
457/459
Touche!
My missus says I’m like the City, can’t keep it up.
459/464
tim =
456 timmy, give it up. Mummy can’t hear you. Shout and stamp your feet louder next time. BTW When did you become the Jews best friend? Is it just for point scoring political reasons?
So we have had R4 do the Waffen SS and find very little, now Newsnight seem to be scraping unable to find very much concrete on the Polish guy….what is next on the list?
459/464 - May i suggest you two google “Blue diamond pill”
This is why Labour are so scared of Osborne he is a pragmatist in touch with today and it scares the hell out of them.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article6928872.ece
467 Pickles in lederhosen, yodelling.
470.
470 - That would be a cracking job for Martin Day, a younger picture of Pickles, lederhosen, Karl Marx text in hand….
Arrests are being made ‘to expand DNA files’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article6929017.ece
I have to say that Tom Harris is one of the best blogging MPs out there,,,
http://www.tomharris.org.uk/2009/11/23/of-false-dawns-and-dashed-hopes
A boy of two was allowed to remain in the care of a blind 82-year-old widow by the council involved in the tragedy of Baby P.
Social workers from Haringey said the child was ‘thriving’ with the frail pensioner, who had once fostered his mother.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230306/The-Baby-P-council-child-left-care-blind-82-year-old.html#ixzz0Xj5ejGMi
Rebels: Now For Plan B
The “Brown must go” camp among Labour MPs have backed off. For now.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:73390350-9384-486a-8e02-4da387b7d4ff
Sir Stuart Rose on Newsnight. Future minister ?
I predict this will happen. He was not saying I’m supporting Cameron, but he said getting down the debt is the priority (Tories priority)
Response to 282
“The more I see and hear about the floods in Cumbria and the effects of the flood in Cockermouth, the more I despair of modern Britain”
I couldn’t disagree more strongly.
I don’t know if Weathercock has been to Cockermouth or Keswick since the floods but I have and I was immensely impressed. The efforts made by the emergency services, other public services, and the voluntary sector to help people caught up in the flooding disaster has been nothing short of wonderful, with paid and unpaid people alike putting in efforts well beyond the call of duty.
To see their efforts in very difficult circumstances made me proud to be a resident of Cumbria.
It’s a bit early to be deciding what sort of bridge may be the best solution, both in the long term and on a temporary basis.
477 - He steps down in the New year doesn’t he? Then part time for another year or so. Very convenient timing.
The Conservative Party would scrap home information packs (Hips) “in a matter of weeks” after coming to power, the Shadow Housing Minister said yesterday.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article6928974.ece
Cartoon about Thatcher & Gordo photoshoot,
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00649/TTM242701CC_RGB_ONL_649493a.jpg
476 Realistically, there is no time left to implement a Plan C (stalking horse candidate against Brown). And as Boulton says, the Plan B round robin letter asking Gordon to leave came and went in the summer - so why wouldn’t he know just screw up a letter and throw it in the bin?
Looks like Labour MP’s don’t want Gordon, but don’t want to do anything that brings about his departure either.
Gab’s on newsnight!
Is anyone else subjecting themselves to this dreadfully slewed, and pretty disgraceful Newsnight report? Is it the first in a series examining the political allies of all the UK’s parties in Europe, or a just a handy one off? And look Gabble’s on TV!
483 - Let me guess going with a Tory EU partners smear?
485. Yep.
473. Or even better, for someone with a basic understanding of Photoshop …
OGH, considering you beat Denis MacShane, in an election back in 1977 I think. Any chance of you standing in Rotherham next year and maintaining your 100% record of beating MacShane again?
Dan Hannan hammering Manshame.
480. Oracle - excellent. How about the Office of the Public Guardian?
490 - ?
489 Good. He’s got a point. The odious McShane and friends scoring cheap political points on the back of the Holocaust is disgraceful.
A Conservative government would cut funding to Whitehall departments that do not reduce their carbon emissions 10 per cent within a year, said George Osborne, the shadow chancellor.
As the opposition party recalibrates its economic message from one of austerity to recovery, Mr Osborne was due to announce on Tuesday a swathe of environmental initiatives designed to ensure “the green revolution is a growth revolution”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e909268a-d876-11de-b63a-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
How long do we give it until MacGabble is frantically posting on here then about Newsnight?
Its no surprise that Hague and Francois refuse to defend Kaminski.
The best that can be said about him is that he is an extreme right winger with an anti semitic past.
And put Hannan up again please.
Hannan is right, that Newsnight film was pretty disgraceful. Splicing long tear-jerker scenes of historical film, with short, vague, semi-accusations against someone is more than partial. It’s propaganda.
It’s quite clever, there is no direct accusations, just hints and suggestions of opportunism. If it was a Labour PPB you would just shrug your shoulders.
It was the BBC.
Looks like tomorrow’s Daily Mirror has a report on
“Tory Cash, The Truth”
494
It would be better to link honours to cuts a la Yes Minister
456. madprof
You evidentally subscribe to the BBC view that northern England consists solely of Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle.
For your information there are 158 constituencies in northern England only 10 of which contain the words ‘Manchester’, ‘Liverpool’ or ‘Newcastle’.
Hannan 9 - Gabble 1
Gabble is not as clever as tim. He has made it very clear that the Labour Party’s primary goal is to destabilise the Tory Grouping in the EU Parliament and not to attack anti-semitism in its own right.
tim’s goal is identical but he prefers readers to deduce his message from the subtext.
As to the URW, any taste of anti-semitism - imagined or real - is valid reason for rejecting the carrier.
Frankly, I have more intellectual and moral sympathy with URW.
Oh and Paxman never asked Macshane one question about Labour’s dodgy allies.
The BBC will not be doing video reports about Labour’s dodgy allies.
Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war incapable of deciding on legality – judges
Panel members criticised for lacking legal expertise to tackle key issue
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/nov/23/chilcot-inquiry-iraq-war
“Britons Like Labour Proposals, But Tories Have the Edge on Immigration ”
This is the Angus Reid commentary with full table links…
http://www.visioncritical.com/2009/11/britons-like-labour-proposals-but-tories-have-the-edge-on-immigration/
498 - It is such a big story, erhhh, that it isn’t the headline on the Front Page….So I guess it is probably just rehashing where the Tories get their dosh from.
A couple of things that should be noted about this poll
1) Tories again getting below 40% - this has become the norm rather than the exception for the past couple of weeks.
2) Who do we believe on the Lib Dems vis a vis Labour. If Angus Reid are right then the political landscape of the next election is possibly going to change far more radically than any normal change of government.
If the Lib Dems can go into an election neck and neck, if not slightly ahead, they have the possibility of beating them in the popular vote - and what kind of bandwagon effect that can have would be anyone’s guess. There are points in the FPTP system where the usual assumptions literally are turned on their heads.
I was disappointed with MacShane on Newsnight, who just droned on in a beseeching tone and added nothing to the debate. They should have had tim on, who a least approaches this matter with a degree of élan.
Quietzapple on Tom Harris’ blog not impressed with the poll…
Quietzapple
Monday 23 November 2009 at 10:14 pm
It is an internet poll.
The apparently US based company have rushed out out within hours of completion of the fieldwork, apparently for propaganda reasons, which calls them into question.
And the Ipsos/MORI one has greater credibility than the others at the moment, because it does not rely on peoples’ recall of how they voted last time for its sampling technique.
At the moment many people are rather annoyed with The Sun’s methods of attacking Gordon Brown – even tory voters – perhaps also with the ratting on the EU Referendum, and so many who did vote Tory last time will recall that they did something else.
I thought the Newsnight report tonight very poor, but then it was obvious that Paxman was going through the motions which was even more telling.
501 - The only disagreement on Kaminski from the Poles interviewed was whether, when he sought to blame the Jews for the Soviet expulsions, he was an anti semite, or whether he was an opportunist prepared to use anti semitism.
Whichever it is you shouldn’t be involved with him, and particularly as leader of your group.
510 - Sounds a bit like the Polish version of,
British Jobs for British Workers
The Newsnight report had some interesting moments.
“There were a number of anti-semitic meetings; that Kam-nski did NOT attend”
It’s yachtgate all over again.
McShane does play the part of a pompass(sic) douche bag well.
Actually a very good episode of Newsnight for the Tories.
Sir Stuart Rose appeared endorse Ozzy.
Michael Crick reported that some politicians might be facing prosecution over expenses, but he could only mention Labour ones and so looked glum.
MacShane was pointless.
God this Kaminski stuff is boring; no sane person gives a monkey’s. Even if they’d done so before then they’ve been beaten into stupified slumber by now.
Next…
510 tim, give it a rest. Political point scoring on the backs of the dead, is to be quite frank, cheap and disgraceful. You’re becoming quite offensive now.
507.Starkey, I am no fan of Hannan, but I wouldn’t have blamed him if he just took off his mike and left them to it in the Newsnight studio tonight. Paxman’s heart wasn’t in it, and even he was contemptuous of McShane whining tone. When I see articles like this, I understand why this is so distressing for Poland and Latvia.
512.“There were a number of anti-semitic meetings; that Kam-nski did NOT attend”
Yep, it was interesting to hear about the meetings that he did not attend.
508. “And the Ipsos/MORI one has greater credibility than the others at the moment, because it does not rely on peoples’ recall of how they voted last time for its sampling technique.”
An interesting view, I’m not sure many here will agree with it.
510
Like this you mean.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4223091.stm
511 (cont) Sounds like Gordo and Kaminski are peas in a pod. Both willing to use the language of the far right in an opportunistic way for political gain.
514,agree,tim boring
Will Newsnight be doing any indepth investigating of the EU groupings of the other main parties in the UK, or are they just going to focus on the Tory party and one particular MEP?
Right - time to roll out the timbot smear buzzword list
Smears about Poland ***Post 510 - plus some from earlier***
Smears about Latvia
Smears about drug use
Smears about Bullingdon
Smears about George Osborne
Smears about William Hague
Smears about not having policies
Smears about having policies but hiding them
Quoting something irrelevant from 10+ years ago
Smears about Eurosceptics running the tories
Smears about Eurosceptics splitting the tories
Smears about people with ‘posh’ names
Inane waffling about the FTSE on days it is up
Smearing a PB poster instead of replying to a question
Smearing about Ashcroft
Inane mumbling about Cameron having a red face
Smearing about private education
Smearing about photo-opportunities
Thats points to me
Labour really missed a trick putting MacShane against Hannan. MacShane just looked like a big fat frog beseeching Hannan to stand as an independent. I couldn’t see the point.
523 - Maybe MacGabble is the best they got?
517. You mean the “penniless dumbo nerds at Political Betting” might take issue with it?
I notice a “herd” of PBers have taken over the comments on the Speccie piece.
Tim, your inside sources on Coulson, will this mean he’s resigning soon?
A News of the World reporter who suffered from a culture of bullying led by former editor Andy Coulson, who is now David Cameron’s head of communications, has been awarded almost £800,000 for unfair dismissal and disability discrimination.
Matt Driscoll, a sports reporter sacked in April 2007 while on long-term sick leave for stress-related depression, was awarded £792,736 by the east London employment tribunal. It is believed to be the highest payout of its kind in the media, and legal costs could take News International’s total bill well over the £1m mark.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/nov/23/andy-coulson-now-bullying-payout
506. Indeed with a bit of luck we will have the Lib Dems beating Labour in the popular vote but still losing net seats and winning fewer than Labour, with the combined left wing total swamped by 400 or so Tories. A recipe for years of dispute and division on the left…
517. I guess we need a poll somewhere between MORI and ARS to keep everyone happy, say 40/28/19?
The BBC has a duty to cover the Kaminski/Waffen SS etc stories, because Labour have made it a political issue.
That said, that film was pretty smeary. Tim Whewell’s political sympathies aren’t hard to fathom
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2007/aug/18/work.workandcareers3
525. That Labour supporters are apparently dismissive of internet polling and past vote weighting cheers me up.
Well AR and Mori can’t both be right. One of them is going to be looking very foolish.
529 - Obviously fits in well with the likes of Wark, Crick and Mason. Might not be enough of a lefty for the likes of Mason though.
If this doesn’t sting the Labour men in grey suits into action, nothing will.
I’ve been saying this for months, namely that the Labour party’s support is like a pressurised water spout, waiting to burst upwards, not neccessarily to Tory levels, but pretty close. But because of Gordon Brown and his 28 stone of pure negativity, it keeps the lid on and Labour support down.
I don’t know, there’s just something about that man. Economically i dare say he’s quite competent, but politically he’s an absolute disaster. He’s like a gardener he goes out to water his political plants, and they all just die. And all he’s put on them is pure nourishing spring water. But they just died. He’s like the King of Death.
I’ll make a prediction, oooerr.
To use metaphors, if Gordon Brown doesn’t step down and make room for someone else, all that pressure will build up, and in one way or another the labour party will explode.
Peter Hitchens was on the right lines in saying that the Tory party should split, but i think he had the wrong party. It will be the Labour Party that cleaves down the middle.
526 - I don’t think anyone will be surprised by that do you?
The tribunal found in December 2008 that Driscoll had fallen victim to “a consistent pattern of bullying behaviour”. “The original source of the hostility towards the claimant [Driscoll] was Mr Coulson, the editor; although other senior managers either took their lead from Mr Coulson and continued with his motivation after Mr Coulson’s departure; or shared his views themselves. Mr Coulson did not attend the tribunal to explain why he wanted the claimant dismissed.”
But I doubt Mr Coulson has any recollection.
510. tim.
“British Jobs for British Workers”.
531 - Or perhaps they are both wrong.
536 - They could conceivably both be partially right as they were taken in different time frames.
516: ‘…and even he was contemptuous of McShane whining tone’
My suspicion is that MacShane was wrongly briefed. It seemed that he thought the discussion was to be about the Lisbon Treaty rather than anti-Semites and thus was devoid of facts. At one point he also appeared to be urging Hannan to defect! All rather odd.
534. Bullying? Terrible, just as well there’s none of that at the top of the Labour party. Imagine if the country was run by some sort of mentalist who was rude to everybody, screamed at shouted at colleagues, threw stuff about, manhandled staff, and spread lies about opponents and colleagues. What an awful thought.
538 - What do the Conservatives gain by being in a group with these people?
There is no upside.
538.Starkey, McShane managed to make Hannan’s point tonight about this being a negative piece of Labour politiking. And Paxman’s ‘get on with it’ comment spoke volumes.
540. “What do the Conservatives gain by being in a group with these people?”
It gives BBC journalists, sundry leftwingers and other swivel eyed loons something to claim moral indignation about. Endless entertainment, as witnessed this evening.
Cameron forced into reverse by the giant Graylings “marriage questions on forms”
David Cameron says ‘no’ to married rights for live-in couples
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230353/David-Cameron-says-married-rights-live-couples.html#ixzz0XjJBYUTw
And here’s something else for you.
We all know that GB hates the Tories from the depths of his being and wants to keep them out of power for ever.
Nothing reaaly wrong with that from a polemical or tribalist point of view, thats the nature of politics.
But what really ires me about him, is that he wants it to be HIM that has destroyed the Tory party.
This shows that he is either a complete control freak and doesn’t trust anyone else to do the job, or, and more worryingly, he is so possessed by this task, that this visceral hatred overflows in his being and poisons his very soul. Hence his very negative presence.
If the British people know one thing, it is this. THEY DO NOT LIKE OR TRUST ANYONE WHO LUSTS AFTER POWER TOO MUCH. IT SHOWS A PATHOLOGICAL NATURE.
Wake up Labour, you are being destroyed from the inside.
Brogan on CCHQ insiders thoughts on the Mori Poll
But I’m also told that inside the machine the discussion is more candid, and worried. The poll has unnerved the inner circle I’m assured, because while it may be a rogue it somehow captures a wider uncertainty out there about the Cameron project. “Worried and perplexed,” is how I’m told they see it inside CCHQ high command. And they ask this question: “Why is it that David Cameron somehow just can’t click with the electorate?”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100017663/why-doesnt-dave-click-with-the-voters/
537 Yes they could, James. The MORI poll may have picked up a Labour mini-revival and the ARS poll may have picked up the relapse. Add in the rather different methodoligies and the two polls are compatible.
My guess is that the ARS poll is the more significant long-term one but I am happy to leave it as a guess, at least for tonite.
Nite nite everybody.
Millions of school and college leavers are ‘not fit for work’, the boss of Marks & Spencer warned yesterday.
Chairman Sir Stuart Rose said too many didn’t even have a basic grasp of the three Rs.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230356/School-leavers-fit-work-says-M-amp-S-chief-Sir-Stuart-Rose.html#ixzz0XjKKzVNs
@545:
To be honest, any CCHQ insider “asking that question” should be sacked for being a f*cking idiot.
537 - I know, my own hunch, is that the Tory lead is neither 6% nor 17% but somewhere in between.
tim at 540 “What do the Conservatives gain by being in a group with these people?”
That’s probably the wrong question to ask, IMO. It should be “What do the Conservatives believe that they gain by being in a group with these people?”
You’re right to say that there’s no upside though.
@546:
“Relapse”? Like voting Tory is similar to being a crack-addled hooker?
540 tim, what did Labour gain from it’s relationship with Bogdan Golik and Wieslaw Kuc? Or Andrzej Lepper? Giulietto Chiesa?
What do they still gain from the relationship with the Slovak Social Democrats & Sergei Stanishev?
It seems everyone in the European Parliament has some unsavoury friends. Get over it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/21/labour-europe-kaminski-poland?showallcomments=true
WTF,
Iraq war inquiry ‘won’t quiz Gordon Brown’
Gordon Brown looks like escaping a public grilling by the Iraq war inquiry - avoiding the risk of giving potentially embarrassing testimony before the General Election.
Government insiders said there was ‘no expectation’ the Prime Minister would be called to give evidence about his role in the build-up to the conflict.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230364/Iraq-war-inquiry-wont-quiz-Gordon-Brown-A-travesty-PM-escapes-probe-critics-claim.html
I’d better get down to B&Q in the morning before there is a shortage of whitewash due to a bulk order by the government.
Rod Crosby = Neil Kinnock, Sheffield, 1992
@550:
What it boils down to is that the lefties still don’t understand the modern Conservative Party. And until you do, you’ll continue to be unable to fight us.
The upside is that we can sit outside the explicit Eurofederalist groupings without sitting as non escrits, and piss off slimebags like Denis McShane in the process.
The downsides? None that I can think of.
506. Indeed with a bit of luck we will have the Lib Dems beating Labour in the popular vote but still losing net seats and winning fewer than Labour, with the combined left wing total swamped by 400 or so Tories. A recipe for years of dispute and division on the left…
by runnymede November 23rd, 2009 at 11:37 pm
You realise that would not be the scenario don’t you, except on your copy of ‘Campaign Manager 2010′ for your Playstation, don’t you runnymede?
Watching Danya Hannanmoto Vs Denuhiko McTakada was rather amusing.
Hannanmoto just kicking the crap out of him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSRahwQBsbE
Why is McTakada still an MP? Who would vote for such a tool?
Newsnight is always good when you have a Tory to shake things up.
Front pages..
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Tuesday-November-24-2009/Media-Gallery/200911415464764?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15464764_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Tuesday_November_24%2C_2009
545.“Why is it that David Cameron somehow just can’t click with the electorate?”
I saw this article earlier and dismissed it. One golden rule springs to mind - The Smithson rule now embedded into political folklore.
Bottom line, the Tories go up in the polls when Cameron is in the media good or bad, and they dip when he isn’t what ever the political climate. And maybe this latest Angus Reid poll bears that out rather well. We just had the Queens Speech and some good and bad media coverage for Cameron this week.
So its pretty stupid to then say that same politician doesn’t click with the electorate.
Shock horror,
The Chilcot inquiry is incapable of addressing the key issue of whether the invasion of Iraq was legal, senior judicial figures have said, adding to the controversy surrounding the inquiry’s legitimacy….
But one senior judge told the Guardian that analysing the war’s legality was beyond the panel’s competence.It does not include a single judge or lawyer.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/nov/23/chilcot-inquiry-iraq-war
540: ‘What do the Conservatives gain by being in a group with these people?’
One benefit is that it certainly brings out the strangest behaviour in their Labour opponents. Why, for example, was Denis MacShane acting like Dan Hannan’s roly-poly favourite uncle - calling him ‘Danny’ and proffering career advice? I don’t that was a suitable time or place.
“There is no upside.”
They gain temporary cover for “we will not let it rest there” actually meaning “we will let it rest there”. Hence why they put off the promise to leave the EPP until the last minute.
545 “Why is it that David Cameron somehow just can’t click with the electorate?”
He would have done a lot better pre-Blair. Or rather would have done much better before the Blair thing bloomed and then went rotten.
561 - The fact that no mainstream Conservative will defend their grouping and it is left to a flaky eccentric like Hannan says a lot.
545.“Why is it that David Cameron somehow just can’t click with the electorate?”
Electorates tend to vote against a government they don’t like rather than for the opposition.
Cameron may not have sealed the deal, but Brown has certainly done so: they want him out by a margin of 12-14%
559 - Do you believe that David Cameron is the son of God?
563 - Hannan destroyed the fool that Labour put up. Are Labour also scared of Hannan as he did Paxman’s job for him tonight?
564 - Tend to agree. It is interesting the lesson you can learn from 1992 which is that oppositions can lose elections too, and that the government is unpopular and the opposition unpalatable then the government will be likely returned albeit with little enthusiasm. Labour have comprehensively lost it and whilst there may or may not be weaknesses in the Conservative offering it isn’t unpalatable, the choice is reasonable and Cameron is imaginable as PM. The likelihood therefore in those circumstances is that the government will be removed.
565 timbot, up to your old tricks again; Attacking the lady posters. Nice.
It’s not actually a flaw in Cameron that a lot of his best qualities as a politician remind people of Blair.
561 ‘Why, for example, was Denis MacShane acting like Dan Hannan’s roly-poly favourite uncle - calling him ‘Danny’ and proffering career advice?’
Trying to wind him up, and get him to lose it. It was pointless but funny to watch.
565.No I don’t, but I know that you have a problem because I like him and post on this site.
Just watching the Gabble interview, so accroding to him, denying climate change is in the same boat as racists, anti-semites, Nazi’s….Hmmmmm
569. If the qualities that remind people of Blair are really his best ones, then heaven help us all.
565 tim, do you believe that Anthony Charles Lynton Blair is the son of God? (We’ll ignore the blood of hundreds of thousands of innocents on his hands for the purposes of this question)
573 When i say best qualities *as a politician* i mean stuff like: easy manner, plausibly human and not some sort of pod-person from Venus etc.
In normal times those qualities would have served him very well and they do now as well but it’s a bit double-edged because of Blair.
568. Are you saying that just because she is a woman Christina is unquetionable? Christina plays the game and is forthright in what she says - tim should be able to ask her what he wants as long as it is not insulting or libellous. Asking Christina whether she overestimates Cameron as a man / politician, even in a colloquial way hardly falls into that category, does it?
John November 23rd, 2009 at 10:08 pm
If MORI polling was so accurate in 2005 why did they feel it necessary to change their methodology so recently?
533/544 Even as someone whose worst act of disdain to Goron Brown will proably be to vote Lib Dem (in a safe-ish Con held,Lib Dem 2nd),I cannot help but agree-if he was a football manager of a Premiership club,by now fans would be organising lynch mobs-sorry to be so blunt,but I,and I guess you can sympathise with my angst!
Looking up-thread, I am so glad Newsnight has a Scottish opt-out for the last twenty minutes. Dennis MacShane v Daniel Hannan. Shudder.
Trying to work out who to cheer for would have been like trying to decide whether to side with Sauron or Saruman.
564- It’s true, elections are almost entirely referenda on incumbent parties, with only some relatively small factor for what the electorate thinks of the opposition (in politically vibrant western democracies, anyway). But the whole question, so often raised, of whether Cameron has “sealed the deal” seems like one of the most empty and boring debates raised these days.
580. “elections are almost entirely referenda on incumbent parties”
That is so obviously not true - if it was, Labour would have been defeated in 2005, and the Tories in 1992.
576.”tim should be able to ask her what he wants as long as it is not insulting or libellous. Asking Christina whether she overestimates Cameron as a man / politician, even in a colloquial way hardly falls into that category, does it?”
You have obviously not been around when Tim has been at his most insulting to me. He has two particular unpleasant strands that he uses when he goes after me on here.
Now to you other question, no I don’t overestimate either Cameron or Osborne on this site. In fact I first noticed Cameron’s potential about 6 months before the last GE, saw him on programme’s like QT. Ditto, started to really notice Osborne cropping up in the political chatter too. I voted for Cameron at the last leadership contest, by the way I was at the point of ripping up my membership of the Conservative party if they carried on making their previous mistakes. I have also been a strong admirer and defender of Osborne and his political acumen on this site for a very long time. And I was proved correct.
I like and admire both men, but don’t find either that particularly attractive in the snide way that Tim implies. Given the choice, I would love to sit down and have a gloriously bitchy political chat with Osborne before Cameron. I find him the more interesting politician from an anorak’s perspective. But the main point is that Cameron is Labour and the Libdems worst nightmare right now, and it shows up time and again on here.
579.James, I was cheering on Hannan to rip off his mike and walk away tonight, Paxman looked like he wanted to do the same. Not a fan of Hannan at all, but tonight he was the better politician.
580. I hate the expression too. But where Britain is different from the US is that the opposition has genuine competition - at least in a way that could impact on the result. The US had that once in recent memory (98) but apart from that you either stick with the incumbants or you turn against them.
Even having said that, Obama had to ’seal the deal’ which I believe he did in the debates. It wasn’t that he did anything spectacular, more that he didn’t. He was not histrionic and that allowed people to feel that they could vote against the incumbant safe in the knowledge that the world would not implode the next day.
So Cameron has two hurdles to clear. 1) That people won’t fear regrets and 2) that he convinces them his party is the only way of voting against the government. That polls in the last 2 weeks have consistently shown the Tories below 40% despite Labour being lower in the polls than at any time since the early 80s mean that there are great many people are still worried about 1) and still giving credence to 2). In that respect the debate is still relevant.
574. Gentlemen, can’t we agree that they can BOTH be the son of God?
The real question is, who was the Virgin?
581.I find the Scottish opt really annoying when they then go rehash the same ground that has already been covered in the first 30mins of the programme, or when an interesting report is playing on the main programme at the same time. Thank god for Sky.
585. So the Immaculate Conception produced twins - Dave and Tony? It’s even worse than I feared…
586.opt out - when they go and rehash the same ground
My old computer is just about to go kaput.
510 tim
[whether Hannan] was an anti semite, or whether he was an opportunist prepared to use anti semitism.
Yes that’s the point. But it was proved neither one way nor t’other in Newsnight. It was not, per se, anti semitic for Kaminski to claim either:
1. that Polish Jews collaborated with the Soviets in identifying other Poles for deportation; or,
2. that the Polish State should not apologise for one side of a two-sided series of war atrocities.
Claiming either is undoubtedly a political risk and, had I been Kaminski, I would have made sure I was certain of the facts before making such claims. I would also have thought twice about whether the principles involved were worth the political capital expended.
As to whether political opportunism was involved I cannot judge without more information. If you risk political censure by revealing unpalatable truth, is this opportunism or bravery? I guess it all rather depends on historical fact. So far I have not heard enough compelling evidence to warrant your description of Kaminski as “squalid and extreme” [142] or “scum” [245].
315
If the Tory group in Europe implodes through it Leaders extremism being exposed then it has implications for Hagues career and the credibility of Camerons foreign policy judgement.
The political goal of Labour’s attack clearly set out. Now who is revealed as “an opportunist prepared to use anti-semitism”?
540 What do the Conservatives gain by being in a group with these people?
So one person has now become “these people”. Is it just Kaminski that is “ant-semitic” or his party? If the Conservatives gain nothing, then why attack them. Do what Cameron does so well: say little and let Brown lead his party to defeat.
I would much prefer to hear from you a well reasoned attack on what the Tories gain or lose politically from the ECR grouping in the EU. Let’s leave the Polish Jews out of it.
586. I think it works extremely well when there is a big news story in Scotland, not so well when there isn’t. The problem is that it was a consolation prize for those who wanted a Scottish Six, and in a sense it answered a question that hadn’t been asked - it’s another ‘local’ news programme (albeit a higher quality one) rather than what we really need, which is a news programme produced in Scotland that can cover Scottish, UK and world news depending on the news priorities of the day.
Incidentally, PB.com’s Angus Reid poll got a mention on Newsnight Scotland tonight - was that the case on the UK edition?
Brogan has the odd article that is off the wall, and has done for a long time.
There is some desperation for a new narrative and a scrabbling around for something anti-Tories-walking-it storyline.
Even MORI has high approval ratings for Cameron, who clearly does ‘click’ with voters when at public events or as evidenced by the Smithson rule about the poll ratings rising when he is on TV.
It wouldn’t surprise me if someone in Tory HQ hadn’t said that MORI poll was something they were on the lookout for, because of all the people in the land they will be the last to think the deal is done, the election in the bag. If they did they would not be working for Cameron.
Cameron will be like Blair in 1997 in one respect. As the election approaches he will be less and less willing to accept that he will get a majority, make all the preparations for a hung parliament and constantly want to redouble the work done to make it more and more likely he will get a majority.
That does not mean that we, as outside observers, cannot see what Cameron is too wary of wanting to see.
Brogan here has been a plonker spinning for a story to match a desires change of pace.
580 My definition of sealing the deal would be:
Con >= (100 - others) / 2
or
Con >= Lab+Lib
so he’s not far off.
I don’t think he can do much better than that under the current conditions because of a) the Blair2 pushme-pullyou effect and b) the perceived political centre-point is distorted which means it is easy for the centre-left to cover that point while only leaving a narrow gap on their left flank but the centre-right party has to move a lot further thereby leaving a much bigger gap on their right flank.
What f##kin muppets run our country (when they actually are bothered to do that and not attacking the opposition),
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/11/those-pesky-track-changes.html#links
584- Yes, that’s true, you do have the extra issue of a major third party thrown in, which could theoretically impact the outcome (although that never does seem to happen in practice). But frankly, I don’t think Cameron needs to do anything at all to secure his majority in terms of “sealing the deal.” If Gordon called a snap election tomorrow, I’m confident that Cameron would be the PM in a month regardless of whether he perfomed any miracles or other acts of wonder between now and then.
594. “(although that never does seem to happen in practice)”
1974, 1983 and 1987 must have been figments of my imagination, then.
BBC Scotland - Straw to face MPs over Megrahi release role
578
Yes, i entirely agree with you.
However, i do think there is hope on the horizon.
I have said for a long time now that there is no way on God’s Green Earth that GB will contest this election. he has some psychological flaw which makes him completely indifferent to the sentiments swirling around him, which on the surface give him the demeanour of someone of extraordinary resilience, but in actual fact it is merely that he is out of touch.
But as the election draws close, his own imagination will go into overdrive, and even if the polls show that he has caught up, he will still step down and let someone else take the risk of fighting the election, because the thought of him being in the spotlight for a full 3 weeks coupled with the nightmare scenario of him losing, will all be too much for him to bear.
I guarantee it.
In fact so certain of this am i, i’m going to put a big bet in him quitting sometime around Jan or Feb.
Timesonline - France aims for key Commission job as Brown criticised for Ashton appointment
“British diplomats are fighting a rearguard action to prevent France from taking the key financial job in Brussels after Baroness Ashton of Upholland’s appointment as foreign affairs chief.
With Paris and Berlin setting their sights on controlling the EU’s economic agenda, a former French Foreign Minister, Michel Barnier, is being tipped to take the plum commission portfolio overseeing the internal market and financial services.
Germany is seeking the industry or energy jobs in the European Commission line-up due to be announced this month, while also preparing its national bank chairman to take over at the European Central Bank.
The Times reported on Saturday that Lord Mandelson and other ministers advised Gordon Brown that he should have tried to secure an economic role for Britain rather than the foreign job won by Lady Ashton.
If France and Germany achieve their aims it will give them sway over the economic drivers of the EU and the power to propose sweeping regulations to restrain the City of London.
The Internal Market Commissioner will oversee the hotly disputed issue of a common level of corporate tax, to open up trade inside the EU. The City fears a renewed regulatory assault on financial transactions and particularly a rumoured directive to crack down on derivative trading.
The manoeuvring came to light as David Miliband, the man whom European socialist leaders wanted to be their foreign affairs chief, called the appointment of Lady Ashton “a major achievement for Britain”.”
“seems like one of the most empty and boring debates raised these days.”
Something more interesting and entertaining in the days ahead might be fallout from all the skullduggery i assume went on during their rats-in-a-sack fight over the Euro-jobs. I expect Blair, Brown, Mandelson and Miliband were all backstabbing each other like crazy and if so their might be lots of revenge brewing which could be a lot of fun for innocent bystanders.
597 Thanks for the reply!
FWIW,as surely by 3rd Friday Jan 2009 UK GDP will at least be +0.1%,some kind of mini-revival,plus the rapidly running out weeks till the fatl moment,will together pplay a large part in GB being the defending PM.
FWIW,I can see him ‘playing long’ ie having an early dissolution as to have a 5 week,as opposed to the usual 3-4 week campaign,in an attempt to diss Cameron and Osborne.
Also,thinking back to late 1991.early 1992,the then Conservative govt waged a ‘near-term’ campiagn (modelled on Regan’s succesful ‘84 campaign against Mondale),sowing seeds of doubt as to the credibiliy of the oppositon-I for one can foresee a prolonged attack in that direction.
Finally,if I really had to put money on it,I foresee David cameon winning the popular vote and most seats,and not quite (ie by only 10-12-ish) achieving an overall majority,that results in his forming a minority govt,with another election within 12-24 months.
In other words,the Tories win by c 6-7%-just my two pennorth!
600 I meant 3rd/4th Friday January 2010!:oops:
I can’t sleep - I need a ComRes fix.
Is this Angus Reid poll the one which bizarrely, splenesterously and nincompoopismatically asks people which party they would “support”, rather than “vote for”? If so, when are they going to learn to do it properly so that it actually means something we can talk about?
448. My theory of animal psychology:
Dogs are children
Cats are teenagers
The poll which had a Conservative lead of 7% was apparently skewed by a Labour lead of 7% in London. They were clearly given a psychological boost by the victory in the Glasgow by-election.
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Morris Dancer wrote: Interesting LabourList article: http://www.labourlist.org/thatchers-generation-can-win-the-next-election-for-labour
. . .
However, the article does make the correct observation that saying “We aren’t evil Tories” is as much use as trying to discipline a lion by punching it in the face.
That reminds me of the stupid viewer who wrote in to the BBC to complain that David Attenborough and his film crew had not “intervened” to prevent animals from being eaten by lions, and suggested that BBC money should instead be spent on “teaching lions to eat grass”.
——————
alex “Fairness” can only be instigated by design under FPTP when you have only two parties of any strength.
There can easily be institutional “unfairness” (if you mean “disproportionality”) in a two-party system, e.g. Croydon local elections in which Labour won a majority of seats three times running while never being the largest party in terms of votes. The ward boundary changes in 2002 (which equalised electorates) only removed about a third of the “bias”, and fiddling the figures to adjust for differential turnout also only reduces the bias slightly. The main cause of the bias is the uneven distribution of the people who vote for the two parties (i.e. the Conservative Party has several absurdly safe wards with large majorities, and Labour has more marginal wards).
RodCrosby Labour did about 24 seats better in 1997 than UNS predicted, although only 8 of these could be ascribed to tactical voting.
Has anyone systematically studied/worked out what happens if you apply a Uniform Swing to the results of one general election, and see how well it predicts the result of another general election? People have mentioned one or two examples, but what if the same calculations are done fotr all the available general elections in recent decades: 2005/2001, 2005/1997, 2001/1997, 1992/1987, 1992/1983, 1987/1983, 1979/1974O, 1979/1974F, 1974O/1974F, 1970/1966, 1970/1964, 1970/1959 and so on. Exclude any with different sets of boundaries.
How much difference is there between the projected results and the actual results? Is there a systematic difference in favour of the main party which is on the receiving end of the swing? Etc. If there are any clever bods with the necessary spreadsheets and stuff, it could be the basis of an article some time.
(I have a theory that successive elections result in increasingly efficient tactical voting and targeting (and an enhanced swing to the ascendant party), but that those advantages are scrambled and undone each time there is a boundary review. This theory is not based on any evidence).
John, my point was not that FPTP is “fair” with 2 parties, but that it is only under 2 parties that it can be “designed” to be fair.