h1

Welcome to Tory “squeaky bum time”

December 14th, 2009


CON 40% (40)
LAB 31% (29)
LD 18% (19)
OTHERS 11%

Does this make an early election more of a possibility?

As was being speculated about earlier the Tory ICM lead in the latest Guardian poll is down to just 9 points – a gap that will send jitters throughout Cameron towers.

After a response to the PBR that was almost wholly negative the party must have been hoping that the progress of Labour would have been stalled. Instead we see figures from ICM that are almost exactly in line with YouGov. I must admit that I got it wrong.

There are two consequences – the hung parliament narrative is going to be reignited and there will be more speculation about an early election.

The ICM polling series in the Guardian is the most long-standing and traditionally punters have paid particular attention to it.

The one consolation for the Tories is that they are still on 40 and the gap is closing because of Labour progress.

It’s hard not to conclude other than the race is getting tighter. Hopefully tomorrow we should see the December Ipsos-MORI poll which last month recorded a six point Tory lead.

Mike Smithson