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The PB Index moves back 4 seats to the Tories

February 5th, 2010

CON SPREAD RANGES
340 – 345 Sporting Index
338 – 343 ExtraBet
344 – 347 Betfair Line market

LAB SPREAD RANGES
220 – 225 Sporting Index
221 – 226 ExtraBet
215.5 – 221.5 Betfair Line market

LD SPREAD RANGES
53 – 56 Sporting Index
54 – 57 ExtraBet
53 – 53.5 Betfair Line market

Has the Ipsos-MORI aggregate moved the markets?

After a week which saw a dramatic move against the Tories on the spread betting markets things have now settled down and it is the Tories who are seeing their spreads move forward.

As a result the PB Index, which seeks to extrapolate an election outcome based on what the betting markets are doing, has moved upwards by four seats and is now showing a projected Tory majority of 36.

Although this is progress for the blue team the projection only six days ago was for a majority of 50.

There’s been no new polling in the intervening period but there has been the MORI aggregate data for all its 2009 polling suggesting that the swing to the Tories in Labour held marginals was running well ahead of the swings elsewhere – thus adding weight to the marginals-only polling which points to better than average swing to the Tories in the battle-ground seats.

On top of that the markets have been steadied by Cameron’s more sure-footed performance at PMQs on Wednesday.

I’ve had a pretty good punting week. I sold the Tories at 350 seats on Sunday night and closed down the contract at 338. I had the same twelve seat change with a Labour buy bet. Then yesterday I went back in again as a Labour seller and Tory and managed to trade at the markets’ lowest Tory level for nearly a year.

Mike Smithson