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Labour closes the tracker gap to just 7 points

February 19th, 2010


CON 39% (39)
LAB 32% (30)
LD 18%(18)

Here’s a poll to test the Andy Cooke analysis?

The second YouGov daily tracker for the Sun is out and although the increase in the Labour share by 2 is well within the margin of error it does take us into what is clear hung parliament territory with the crude uniform national swing (UNS) seat calculators that simply apply a mathematical calculation in each seat to the 2005 result.

This is going to reinforce the narrative that the election is less of the forgone conclusion that it appeared and if Labour gets a couple of points closer we could be at the point where the UNS maths suggest that Labour would win most seats.

With Andy Cooke the equation on the latest poll is much more complex and takes into account the special characteristics of the marginals which swung much more to Labour in 1997 and have “retained” a large part of that – something that we have seen in all the limited polling of the marginals that has taken place.

The Cooke algorithm rates the hung parliament probability on a seven point margin at just 1.6%.

Whatever this is seriously good news for Brown Central particularly as it suggests that Labour is heading for a GB vote share that is only four points off the 36.2% that was achieved in 2005.

So Labour, on this poll, has lost just one in nine of the voters who supported what was then Tony Blair’s party on May 5th 2005.

The best Labour most seats bet is the 6.6/1 on Betfair. Ladbrokes, William Hill, Victor Chandler, and Bet365 have it as a 6/1 shot.

Mike Smithson