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Is today the day you should buy the Tories again?

March 1st, 2010

Has YouGov done punters a favour?

If there’s one thing that the declining Tory ratings, topped by the YouGov 2% lead, have done it has been to change the narrative. For what looked only two months ago like a foregone conclusion can now be reported as a real race again.

The prospect of Brown’s Labour coming on top with most seats has shaken everything up and I wonder whether without it Cameron’s latest “most important speech of his career” would have got anything like the coverage that we see on the front pages this morning.

And if, indeed, the scale of coverage is a driver of poll ratings then Cameron Towers must be hoping that the numbers start to move towards them again. For one thing about bullying/Rawnsley/”forces of hell”/etc is that it has all been Labour focussed with the consequence that others have been blanked out of the news.

As I have argued here before there is an element of the voting intention shares, maybe as much a four points, that is almost totally coverage related. If my theory is correct then the Tories should start to see some polling progress again – the question is how much?

So what about the betting? The markets have reacted sharply to the weekend moves and the latest Sporting Index are down to C324-329: L241-246: LD53-56 seats. Could today be the day you buy the Tories again?

Having been a Labour buyer and Tory seller I took my profits yesterday afternoon. As it turned out I closed down my positions a little early and would have made a bit more holding on. Now I’m back in the market going the other way. For if there is a Tory poll recovery – even a small one – then prices might move sharply.

One of the joys of spread betting is if you’ve predicted the market move correctly then you can close the position pocketing your profits now. You don’t have to wait for the actual election.

Mike Smithson