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YouGov points to disproportionate swing in Wales

March 5th, 2010


CON 29% (21.4)
LAB 37% (42.7)
LD 12% (18.4)

PC 14% (12.6)

But the Tories are down on January

A new YouGov poll of Welsh Westminster voting intentions points to a 6.6% swing to the Tories since the May 2005 general election and the possibility of eight gains. The comparisons above are from the last general election.

But in spite of all this the poll shows a significant weakening of the Tory position there since the last such poll in January. They are down 3, Labour are up 2 with the LDs and PC down 1% each.

The swing in the Principality is more than two points greater than in Britiain as a whole and is on the same scale as last night’s YouGov poll of 60 marginal seats by the firm for Channel 4. The seats selected for that survey did not include any from Wales.

Given the concentration of marginals amongst the 40 Welsh seats this should be positive news for the blue team. What we don’t know is whether the Welsh marginals are behaving any differently from this.

Mike Smithson