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Are we witnessing a remarkable come-back by Labour?

March 24th, 2010
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 24 Mar 23
CONSERVATIVES 36% 37%
LABOUR 34% 33%
LIB DEMS 17% 18%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 2.5% 3.5%

Tory daily poll lead drops to just 2 percent

Tonight’s daily poll by YouGov for the Sun has Labour up to 34% and the Tories down to 36%. The gap equals the smallest that we’ve seen in this series and will add to the jitters in Tory ranks.

It is important to stress that almost all of the fieldwork was done before Mr. Darling got to his feet to give his budget statement.

So the poll is suggesting that Brown’s party has lost just one in eighteen of its supporters from 2005 – a remarkable achievement if, indeed, this is supported by other polling.

This seems at odds with some positive news for the Blues in the detailed Ipsos-MORI data. This showed that just 69% of 2005 Labour voters are now saying they are certain to vote for the party and nearly half of them are dissatisfied with Mr. Brown’s performance.

I’m looking forwards to examining the YouGov data and weightings.

Mike Smithson