h1

Should you be betting on the pollsters – or their polls?

April 11th, 2010
Pollster Firm Prediction
Andrew Hawkins ComRes Con majority 32
Ben Page Ipsos-MORI Con 25 seats short
Andrew Cooper Populus Con majority of 10+
Peter Kellner YouGov Con majority 20-30
Robert Salvoni Harris Con majority 2-10
Andy Morris Angus Reid Con majority 40-50
Martin Boon ICM Con majority 20
John Heald Opinion Research Con majority 40+

Seven out of eight predict a Tory majority

Thanks to the Independent on Sunday for this one – a survey of what the pollsters themselves think is going to happen.

With almost all of their polls on a strict application of the UNS in “hung parliament territory” it’s maybe a tad surprising that only one – Ben Page of MORI, thinks that that is going to be the outcome.

Their views are very much in chime with the betting where a Tory overall majority remains the odds on favourite.

UPDATE Ben Page, the odd one out, has commented on UKPR that his quote in the paper was based on current survey figures. His personal view is a Tory majority. So eight out of eight.

Mike Smithson