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… and ComRes has a 9-point Conservative lead

April 20th, 2010

Is this a rogue or is the LD bounce running out of steam?

ComRes ITV/Independent Apr 19 Apr 18
CONSERVATIVES 35% 32%
LIB DEMS 26% 28%
LABOUR 26% 28%

So, here is the long-awaited sensational poll from ComRes, with the Conservatives now on a nine-point lead over both the other parties. As with all polls that break from the recent trend, is this an outlier, or the first indication that the Lib Dem bounce has slightly deflated and the Tories are getting back towards pre-debate levels of support? Which of tonight’s polls do we find the most believable?

The background release from ITV/The Independent says:

“This is the first time a telephone pollster has given the Conservatives such a large lead since the end of March. This poll gives Conservatives 299 seats – 27 short of an overall majority – Labour 233 seats and Liberal Democrats 86.

This compares with figures from ComRes yesterday that put Conservatives on 32%, Labour on 28% and Liberal Democrats on 28%. Looking further back to 14th April, these figures can be compared with voting intentions taken before the First Election Debate, which put Conservatives on 35%, Labour on 29% and Liberal Democrats on 21%.

…ComRes also asked voters how they felt about the war in Afghanistan. 65% said that the war wouldn’t influence their voting intentions, which is probably accounted for by 70% of respondents saying that there was no real choice of policies on Afghanistan by the main parties. 72% said that they thought the war in Afghanistan was unwinnable, compared to 60% in March.”

Sample size: 1,012. Fieldwork: 18th and 19th April. Data weighted by past vote recall and demographics

Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame)

www.electiongame.co.uk