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Is it all pointing to a big turnout?

April 23rd, 2010


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What’s the best betting option?

For my Guardian election betting tip today I highlight a finding from this week’s MORI poll in which 78% of voters say the outcome of the election is important to them personally.

The response level at this stage of a campaign to the same question was only exceeded in 1992. Then, it will be recalled, turnout was just under 78%.

Clearly a combination of the TV debates and the hard-to-predict outcome is adding to public interest – all of which point to a high turnout. On top of this we have the news of a big late rush of applications to get on the electoral register.

The day the election was called I got £200 on with Ladbrokes at 7/2 that it would be 70% or more. That price has now slipped and even at that level I still regard it as a good bet.

If you are not totally convinced then try SkyBet’s 11/10 against it being 67.5% or more.

As a general rule I like these open ended bets rather than trying to guess within a five point segment like 65-69.9%.

Mike Smithson