How will hacking have impacted on the leader ratings?

July 9th, 2011

Will it be Ed up and Dave down?

Everybody it seems at the moment is coming out with the old Harold Wilson quote about “a week being a long time in politics” and the past seven days, surely, have been almost without precedent.

So how will the week’s events have impacted on the poll findings that for me are by far the best indicator of opinion – the leadership ratings? We’ll have to wait a week or so for the Ipsos-MORI “satisfied-dissatisfied” numbers but overnight we should get YouGov’s leaders’ doing “well-badly” data for the Sunday Times.

Normally the fieldwork takes place on Thursday evening and Friday so many of the responders are likely to have missed the Coulson arrest and bailing.

The chart above shows the position from last week. What will we see tomorrow?

My guess is that EdM will see an improvement, Dave a decline with Clegg staying about the same.

Mike Smithson