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How will hacking have impacted on the leader ratings?

July 9th, 2011

Will it be Ed up and Dave down?

Everybody it seems at the moment is coming out with the old Harold Wilson quote about “a week being a long time in politics” and the past seven days, surely, have been almost without precedent.

So how will the week’s events have impacted on the poll findings that for me are by far the best indicator of opinion – the leadership ratings? We’ll have to wait a week or so for the Ipsos-MORI “satisfied-dissatisfied” numbers but overnight we should get YouGov’s leaders’ doing “well-badly” data for the Sunday Times.

Normally the fieldwork takes place on Thursday evening and Friday so many of the responders are likely to have missed the Coulson arrest and bailing.

The chart above shows the position from last week. What will we see tomorrow?

My guess is that EdM will see an improvement, Dave a decline with Clegg staying about the same.

Mike Smithson
← Older Comments
  • Jack W

    389 Mike S. “All is revealed”

    OGH becomes page 3 guy in the “Sun” !!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;-)

  • chris_g00
  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    392, Mr. Putney, are you looking to lay that Rosberg bet?

    On raw pace, I doubt he can touch the top 3. However, I do wonder if Red Bull’s reliability will be hit by the rule changes.

    Ha, right after qualifying he was actually the favourite. From second :P

    The Red Bull has actually been relatively slower in races than in qualifying for a little while. Excepting Valencia, McLaren has had the fastest race package for some weeks now (Canada, Spain, Monaco)

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    Mike Smithson @394
    Oh dear. I feel like my granddad just got his todger out.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    402, me, pressed submit by mistake :P

    Anyway, I think Ferrari might have the edge in the race in terms of both reliability and pace.

    393, Mr. Roger, I forgive you.

    396, I’m afraid I haven’t, Mr. Roger. Not really much of a cinema-goer, though I’ve heard great things of the film.

  • Marquee Mark

    Roger @393

    Roger – have you seen a pre-screening of Coriolanus yet? It really is very good – in competition at Toronto and part of London Film Festival I believe.

    Vanessa Redgrave looks a good bet for Supporting Actress Oscar nomination at least.

    Shame The Tempest was made such a mess in post…I saw some good footage in the rushes. Hey-ho…

  • CarlottaVance

    383 – Have you read the comments?

    Is there no depth to their capacity to hate?

    By all means object to the NOTW Editorial line – but vilifying 200 unemployed journalists on the day of their sacking?

    Typical behaviour – play the man, not the ball.

  • Oliver

    I wait with bated breath to find out who Ed Miliband, the BBC and The Guardian will use their magical newspaper destroying powers on next.

    It’s all their fault. It’s not the journalists who hacked into the phones of the dead (among other things), the editors who turned a blind eye, or News International making the decision to sack them all. It’s all Ed Miliband’s fault. Hell, who knew he had so much power? I guess that’ll be the end of “Ed is crap” once and for all now there’s proof that the leader of the opposition is a formidable Newspaper destroying machine.

  • chris_g00

    http://twitpic.com/5not0d

    The end. At which point the journalists, in the tradition of the paper, made their excuses and left…

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    Marquee Mark @397
    No, I considered that – I am 100% sure the Guardian would still have gone for it – to stop Murdoch. That’s all they care about.

    So the hacking stuff would still have emerged, but Cammo would have been bullet-proof. Ah well.

  • Marquee Mark

    Roger, I know some interesting background on the next project by the guys who made “Senna” – another F1 based story, but this time not documentary footage. Will tell more when I can…

    ;-)

  • chris_g00

    http://ow.ly/i/e6QP

    final front page

  • Marquee Mark

    411 “The World’s Greatest Newspaper 1843 – 2011″

  • Oliver

    I’m disappointed with the News of the World frontpage. I was hoping for some addresses of paedophiles to lynch mob.

  • jascow

    Plato @381:

    Sun_Politics Sun Politics
    NotW – RIP. A loss to 1st class journalism. Ed Miliband, Guardian and BBC; how proud you must be of your work this week.

     
    Very interesting.

    Their 3 targets.

  • Colin

    It’s been years since I bought a newspaper, but maybe I’ll think about it tomorrow. I’ve probably only bought about ten in my life. I just expect all my news to be free. I really wouldn’t pay 10p for a newspaper, and that sort of attitude from my peers is why they’ll all go to the wall. It’s not that I don’t like them – I read the Metro and Evening Standard, and any others left behind on the train when until recently I commuted – it’s just I can get better news online for free.

  • Marquee Mark

    414 Maybe the Beeb were playing the long game – revenge for Frank Bough?

  • chris_g00

    http://www.torontosun.com/2011/07/08/kates-marilyn-moment-in-calgary

    Maybe we don’t need The News of the World…

  • chris_g00

    http://twitpic.com/5noy7m

    Independent apparently has a Sunday edition, who knew?

  • http://twitter.com/grabcocque Martin Coxall

    It’ll be with a solitary tear in my eye as I, like I did for 168 years, fail to buy the last ever News of the World tomorrow.

  • Marquee Mark

    418 The same tiny handful that cared…

  • http://twitter.com/grabcocque Martin Coxall

    @415:

    I imagine Alan Rusbridger and Tom Watson have spent the weekend priapic to an extent that they’ve been wearing safety goggles.

    I think we’re now at the “lamentations of their women” stage.

  • tim

    Ed Miliband will urge MPs to halt Murdoch’s BSkyB takeover
    Labour leader to test the strength of the coalition with Commons motion aimed at stopping BSkyB buyout in its tracks

    With many Liberal Democrats and Tory MPs deeply uneasy about Murdoch gaining an even bigger slice of the UK media market – and still incensed by the behaviour of News Corp executives – Labour is optimistic it can mobilise enough support to achieve a majority.

    Miliband will appear on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday to announce his plan and to begin his push for support across all the major parties. He will lay the motion tomorrow and the debate and vote will be on Wednesday.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/09/ed-miliband-phone-hacking-bskyb-takeover

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    Roger @362:

    I have no sympathy whatever for the journalists. If they had talent they would be writing for something worthwhile. If they didn’t then that’s the price of a free market

         by Roger July 9th, 2011 at 20:04 Ignore Favourite Reply

     
    Roger – the man in ADVERTISING, the man who spent his entire and already-forgotten career making ADVERTS ABOUT TAMPONS – attacks journalists for choosing a meretricious profession??

    Irony, cometh richly mantled.

  • Peter from Putney

    402 Morris – I’ve only had a couple of quid on a Rosberg podium, so it’s really not worth my laying it off …. I’d prefer to imagine that I might actually win £31.40.
    The rate of attrition amongst all the leading teams this season has been astonishingly low. I recognise that I need at least two of the leading drivers to retire to have any chance of winning this bet.

  • Trevors Den

    316 – you are being self serving Mr Smithson. You can suggest that Coulson should have not been employed (on a safety first principle) but the reality of any judgement is exceptionally minor (especially as you do not know the truth or extent of any allegations).

    Its the pointing out of the previous life of Baldwin – and the willingness of Miliband to appoint Woolas (and labour MPs to vote for him) that emphasises the ‘minorness’ of it all.

    The ‘bigness’ has yet to come, namely the police selling information (possibly giving it (?)to the Guardian as well).
    Cameron has done nothing wrong, this is a matter of fact, in addressing this problem, a problem which happened many years ago – only those who want there to be an issue will invent this as such an issue.

  • Slackbladder

    Brilliant…

    A contestant on the National Lottery show ‘Vince Cable…never heard of him…’

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    On this “Inquiry now” call from Labour: isn’t that completely unrealistic given that it cannot be allowed to prejudice the police investigation and can therefore do very little indeed?

    An unkind soul might accuse Labour of being opportunistic little shits.

  • Roger

    405. MM. I don’t think they’ve even finished cutting it yet. i think you have better contacts than me. I’d love to see it partly because it’s directed by RF and partly because it was one of my O/A level books. If it’s at the London film festival I’ll see it then.

  • http://twitter.com/grabcocque Martin Coxall

    @423:

    I’d rather be a journalist than working in f*cking advertising, I tell you that for nowt.

    Sure, hacking Millie Dowler’s voicemail is bad, but it’s not *this*:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_-9QFvhQWo

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    422, is it the role of the legislature to confirm or deny business dealings based upon party political advantage?

    Tactically, it sounds clever. That doesn’t mean that it isn’t thoroughly despicable, however.

    424, all teams have had staggering, even tedious, reliability. The engine regulation change may end this.

  • Richard 111

    An interviewee on 5 Live earlier this week, he may well have been a journalist, said that the objective was not Murdoch but was “to bring down the Government”. He quickly realised what he had said and started to obfuscate. But the words and sentiment were definately said.

  • don(the other one)

    Roger @301:

    some brilliant investigative journalism and not a hacked phone of a dead schoolgirl anywhere in sight.

     
    Any comment on them using corrupt police officers in obtaining information for this story?

  • Marquee Mark

    427 It is finished – saw a private screening at the Soho Hotel a few weeks back.

    Powerful stuff – Barry Ackroyd has done his usual fantastic job. And Ralph Fiennes is really very compelling as Corialanus. And Jerry Butler can act – who knew?!

  • runnymede

    423. There is certainly a touch of ‘people in glass houses’ wrt Roger’s comment, but his basic sentiment was sound enough.

    I would be ashamed to work for a muck-racking rag like the NOTW was and would be embarrassed if any of my friends and family did.

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    I have to say, if these reports of Cameron being warned by all and sundry about Coulson years ago are true – and it’s a big IF – then Cammo is a farcical, tiny-mouthed moron.

    It’s his job to get this sh1t right. Tut tut.

  • Dixie

    I was hoping that the Murdoch would go for Guardian, BBC and Ed and that Tweet from Sun Politics says they are. I am not sure that Ed did much but pleased all the same. BSkyB is too exclusive, powerful, expensive so Murdoch losing this is good for the ordinary punter. However as a Tory we need Murdoch to fight BBC / Guardian who both lose money and peddle dead socialist, anti-English rubbish.

  • tim

    Sun_Politics Sun Politics
    NotW – RIP. A loss to 1st class journalism. Ed Miliband, Guardian and BBC; how proud you must be of your work this week.

    Counterproductive, and a gift to Labour – The Sun sides with criminals, and those who hack into dead girls phones.

  • http://twitter.com/grabcocque Martin Coxall

    @434:

    Yes, but that would mean that our tim was right all along, and that doesn’t bear thinking about.

    Let’s just pretend that Dave is way more competent than he appears and SAY NO MORE ABOUT IT.

  • peter buss

    Actually the Miliband motion is pure garbage.There is a proper judical process to be followed and on TV yesterday an expert said that for the Govt to follow such a motion would breach the process and lead to a judcial review which the Govt would inevitably lose.
    The whole point of the relevant legislation is that politicians should not skew the process.Labour really cannot have it both ways.

  • tim

    434 – Cameron has been warned by everyone, and it couldve been so easily avoided.

    One of PB’s normally well informed contributors about media matters, Don, posted this just over an hour ago on the previous thread.

    Coulson will most likley step down on Friday saying that he did not know about the alleged activity but he did not want to harm DC or The Conservatives as he had become the story.

    Then DC will turn the story around onto the alleged cover up by the authorities. The strategy is most likley being developed tonight.

    I suspect the replacement is already lined up, and has been in case Coulson was targeted like this.

    Whether Don is right or not we’ll have to see but there’s little doubt that this could be highly dangerous for the Tory leader – just at a time when he was seeking to make “character” and “honesty” into campaign issues.

    http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/07/09/how-dangerous-is-this-for-cameron/

  • Richard 111

    434. Cameron said quite clearly at his press conference that the appropriate agencies who check into the background of those appointed to Government positions (private as well as the security services) had cleared Coulson for the position.

  • tim

    438 – The coalition whips are going to have fun getting there ducks in a row,

  • http://twitter.com/grabcocque Martin Coxall

    @432:

    Between Cameron’s tiny mouth, EdM’s freakishly long arms and Nick Clegg’s swollen sense of self-importance, we’ve got a right bunch of fecking mutants lording it over us.

    KILL THEM ALL WITH FIRE.

  • Trevors Den

    Who is going to get up early tomorrow to buy the last edition of the NOTW??

  • don(the other one)

    Richard 111 @440:

    Cameron said quite clearly at his press conference that the appropriate agencies who check into the background of those appointed to Government positions (private as well as the security services) had cleared Coulson for the position.

     
    Does anybody know if people such as Coulson have to undergo developed vetting before they are allowed to work in such a sensitive job?

  • AnnaK

    SeanT @434
    What if no charges at brought against Andy Coulson. What happens then? I was sure he was going to be charged by Monday at the latest the way the papers reported it.

  • Holly

    Just before I finally go.
    Ed is crap…..and regardless of whether Cameron took on Coulson or not, this will come back & bite Labour, which included crap Ed at the time, who went on to hire Baldwin, who I have thought was a previous PM all day.
    Shows what a Stanley I am eh?
    See you later.
    Love
    Holly
    xxx

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    runnymede @433
    The NOTW was not my cup of Tom-Baldwin-style coca tea either, however, you have to accept: if you want a vigorous, profitable, investigative press than you must tolerate some vulgar populist tabloids.

    I know of no market around the world where these two things don’t go hand in hand. It’s the populism and profitability of the NOTW that allowed it to fund very expensive investigations – like the Pakistani cricketers (which was an amazing and excellent scoop)

    We may decry the appetite for tattle, but it is human and it will always exist, and by harnessing it, you can do public good: which is what tabloids ultimately do.

    Again, to see what Britain might become, without a free and vulgar press, look at France – where all the papers are intellectual and/or respectful, and they are read by no one, and they are so poor they must be taxpayer funded, and the rich and powerful do what they like (unless they get caught doing it in America)

    I would hate for us to be like that.

  • Mike Smithson

    New thread

    The final front and back pages http://bit.ly/nWGVgQ

  • Trevors Den

    426 Morris – ‘An unkind soul might accuse Labour of being opportunistic little shits.’ – I could not possibly comment…

  • chilon

    Tim

    Agreed. It’s crazy. It’s like blaming William Hague when an operation to free a hostage goes wrong.

    The fact the hostage died has nothing to do with Hague and everything to do with the person who took the hostages in the first bloody place.

  • Scott P

    235. “I’ve heard from my source at labour HQ that Milband might have to clear a space in his diary to sack Baldwin tomorrow…

    anyone else heard this?”

    No.

    Ed will fly back from China to sack Baldwin…

  • http://tomknoxbooks.com SeanT

    Martin Coxall @437
    our tim was right. I’m putting it down to an unnoticed but profound fluctuation in the earth’s magnetic field causing his neurones to accidentally and freakishly happen upon a verity.

  • Trevors Den

    442 – add in your short sightedness Mr Coxall

  • http://twitter.com/http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/07/08/is-it-worth-2-5-that-rebekah-will-be-out-this-month/comment-page-3/#comment-2055482PlatoSays Plato

    :D

    journodave Dave Wyllie
    EXCLUSIVE video of Murdoch arriving in the UK: http://youtu.be/Zn94j5F5YLc

  • http://twitter.com/http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/07/08/is-it-worth-2-5-that-rebekah-will-be-out-this-month/comment-page-3/#comment-2055482PlatoSays Plato

    Ooh Yates of the Yard just apologising for not re opening hacking inquiry!

  • http://twitter.com/http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/07/08/is-it-worth-2-5-that-rebekah-will-be-out-this-month/comment-page-3/#comment-2055482PlatoSays Plato

    TonyParsonsUK Tony Parsons
    Brilliant move by News of the World editor Colin Myler to put a quote on tomorrow’s cover from the paper’s greatest fan – George Orwell.

  • http://twitter.com/http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/07/08/is-it-worth-2-5-that-rebekah-will-be-out-this-month/comment-page-3/#comment-2055482PlatoSays Plato

    The Independent on Sunday says the closure of the NOTW is just the start of a power struggle #skypapers http://twitpic.com/5now14

  • Trevors Den

    444 Annak – the police have a track record of arresting people in a blaze of publicity and then releasing them (if they have not shot them by accident first).

    You might think this an odd view from a law and order happy to see murderers hang tory, but over the last 13 years the police have become wildly politicised (remember Boris’ first act and how labour howled in anguish?).
    I rather fear the lemmings are missing this point. The real story revolves around the police selling information and who corrupted who might turn out to be a grey area. Problem for those who would rather not have looked into this is that whoever it is on the press side will say they were offered the information.

  • http://twitter.com/http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/07/08/is-it-worth-2-5-that-rebekah-will-be-out-this-month/comment-page-3/#comment-2055482PlatoSays Plato

    The Observer runs with Paddy Ashdown’s warning to newly elected David Cameron not to hire Andy Coulson #skypapers http://twitpic.com/5npdwy

  • Trevors Den
  • Trevors Den

    460 – plato — is Ashdown saying he knew of criminal activity and did not report it to the police?

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