politicalbetting.com

Marginals said to be “patchy and extremely tight”

We are going to have to wait until this evening before we see the first post-Blackpool opinion poll and that should be from the YouGov panel on this evening’s Channel 4 News. But according to Steve Richards in the Independent the prospect of an early election has receded following the Tory conference and reaction to Cameron’s speech.

He notes that Brown’s “inner circle is understood to have become more cautious about an election after studying Labour’s private polling in key marginal seats which is described as “patchy and extremely tight”.

He goes on; “…Labour strategists believe their lead in the polls is likely to be dented by the Tories’ pledge to raise the threshold for inheritance tax to £1m. If Mr Brown pulls back from an election, he will be accused of running scared by the Tories after allowing speculation to mount and making contingency plans to announce, next week, a poll for 1 November. A three-year spending programme and pre-Budget report may still be presented on Monday, nine days earlier than planned, even if the election is off…Some Brown allies argue that it would be better to suffer a short-term embarrassment than rush into an election after just 100 days as Prime Minister without being sure of winning a firm mandate. They are confident the Tories’ tax and spending plans will unravel, but say it would be better to “demolish” them over months rather than weeks.”

Meanwhile there’s more cause for Labour caution from the detail of last Saturday’s Populus poll that had Labour with a whopping 10% margin over the Conservatives. As Mark Senior noted in the overnight thread “…As always they are illuminating as to where the Labour lead came from . Comparing the vote in 2005 to voting intention now LibDems lose 12 voters to Labour and 6 to Conservative but gain 10 and 5 respectively . Labour lose 13 to Conservatives but gain only 5 in return . The Labour lead is entirely due to those who did not vote in 2005 where they lead Conservatives by 109 to 39 , a massive margin.”

So in the best poll by far for Labour from the firm since Cameron’s election the Tories are still winning more 2005 Labour voters than they are losing. What will these figures be like in the latest survey from the firm - due out at on Saturday?

Politicalbetting has record day. Meanwhile figures for site traffic show that yesterday was the busiest ever with 85,520 page downloads. This beats by 2,000 the totals on May 4th this year after the local, Scottish and Welsh elections.

Mike Smithson

Bob Worcester: The founder of Mori and one of the most pre-eminent people in the UK polling industry, Sir Robert Worcester will be joining us for an hour or so tomorrow to discuss, amongst other things, the latest Ipsos-Mori poll - due out in the Observer in the morning. I am hoping that Bob’s appearance will start a new feature on PBC when leading figures in the polling industry can talk about how they see things going.

Comment publishing arrangements. After nearly four years of full open publishing of comments a modest control measure has been introduced today in advance of a general election campaign. If the details featured - the name and email address etc - are not known to the site then comments will be held in a moderation box hopefully for not more than an hour.

Regular posters will notice no difference provided their details are the same. If there is a change then you might find that your comment will be held up.

I could have opted for pre-registration which is cumbersome and inhibits people coming on to the site. I am hoping that this modest measure will enable the discussions to continue in the manner that many of us enjoy. If there are any problems then please drop me an email.

Any volunteers I am looking for two or three regular users who can assist me in the management of the site during the campaign. I will be asking our normal stand-in editor, Paul Maggs but I think we need one or two others who can provide some cover. I have a particular problem in mid-October when I will be in North America on a business trip.

Site slim-down To ease pressure on the server the number of articles that will appear when you come to the site will be reduced to three or four. If you want to regularly refer to early thread then can I suggest that you subscribe to an RSS service where the 25 most recent threads are easily accessible.

Site traffic September has already surpassed all previous months yesterday alone the were more than 65,000 page downloads - a total that was only surpassed at the May elections. No other UK political site gets anywhere near these figures.

Mike Smithson

Will Lynne Featherstone hold on in Hornsey?

Those who followed yesterday’s thread will have seen a fierce argument between two long-standing contributors, Mark Senior and Gladstone, over whether the Lib Dems will hold onto Hornsey and Wood Green at the next general election.

Mark has laid a bet 5/1 on the possibility that the incumbent who took the seat in 2005, Lynne Featherstone, (pictured above promoting a soup kitchen initiative) will fail to hold onto the seat. So if she does hold on Mark gets £20 but if she doesn’t he has to pay Gladstone £100. Both of them have emailed me to confirm the bet.

So I have decided to create one of our permanent pages where unsettled wagers like this are recorded for everybody to see.

Can I make it absolutely clear that my role is to provide a facility where people can discuss and argue. I can accept no responsibility for anything to do with the bets and people enter into wagers entirely at their own risk. You have to check out for yourself whether you want to enter into a bet and both parties have got to email me, with full name and address details showing agreement.

As for the bet it will be recalled that Lynne won Hornsey and Wood Green on May 5th 2005 after securing a massive 15% swing to the Lib Dems from Labour. Since then she has repeatedly been tipped as a possible future leader of her party and often appears in the media.

I think Labour are going to find it hard winning back seats like this from Lib Dem incumbents whatever is happening nationally and Mark looks as though he will get his £20. As for the 5/1 odds he has laid on her not doing it - I think that he has been over-generous.

Check out the POLITICALBETTING RECORDED WAGERS page here.

If anybody has other wagers that they would like recorded then please get in touch.

Mike Smithson

Picture - http://www.flickr.com/photos/lynnefeatherstone/536351113/in/photostream/

In partnership with Politico’s Book Shop, Politicalbetting.com is happy to announce the date and venue, as above, of its annual party which this year will be combined with the launch of Mike’s book, The Political Punter, which is being published by Harriman House.

The venue is made possible by the sponsorship of our MP contributors, John Hemming (LD), Stewart Jackson (CON) and Nick Palmer (LAB). Our thanks to them.

Politicos will, at its own cost, be inviting along a number of journalists for the launch, so if you attend you not only get the chance to insult personally many of those you have been insulting all year on the site, but you will also be able to air your views to the denizens of the press. How can you miss this opportunity?

No formal arrangements have been made for drinks afterwards but we expect a fair few of us will shuffle across to St Stephens Tavern for the evening. Naturally anybody who cannot make the launch itself will be very welcome to catch up with us there.

Afternoon refreshments will be served at the launch and to cover the cost of this we are charging £13.50 per head. There will be no other charge. I need to firm up on numbers as soon as possible and provide names to The House, so I must ask all those who intend to come for a definite commitment by Friday 6th April at the latest – if you can do so sooner, it will be a big help to me. Please email your confirmations to me at arklebar@talktalk.net

PB has a small budget to contribute towards wine at the launch and if there is any left over, we’ll stick it behind the bar at the pub. Naturally if anybody feels moved to contribute personally to the alcoholic side of things, we will be very grateful for any offerings.

I look forward to hearing from as many of you as possible. Politico’s reckon they will bring along at least 25. I’d like to think PB can top that. Bust a gut to get there; it should be worth it.

Peter Smith (aka Peter the Punter)

Should Gordon be worried about the eulogies to Blair

Tucked away in the detail of yesterday’s YouGov poll were the responses to the question “Who would make the best Prime Minister”? When the options were Blair, Cameron and Campbell 79% of Labour voters said Tony with just one per cent naming Cameron

But when the same question was asked with Gordon Brown substituted for Tony Blair the proportion of Labour voters going for Brown dropped to 71% with 6% naming Cameron.

The same effect was seen with the forced choice question - “would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by Cameron or a Labour Government led by Brown/Blair”. A total of 90% Labour supporters went with the Blair-led option but this number dropped to 79% when Brown’s name was substituted.

For in spite of everything there appears to be a significant group of voters who went with Labour because of Tony and might fall away when he goes.

All of this could be magnified in the coming months as we get nearer to the Blair departure. For we are already starting to see the eulogies to Tony Blair - one of which, by Matthew Parris, appears in the Times this morning. Under the heading “I’m no fan of the man, but I do love Blair’s Britain” Parris goes on to record the good things that have happened to British society in the past nine years.

Parris writes: “..And there has been, as gradual as it is signal and (I hope) permanent, a steady reduction in the level of general censoriousness in public life. In its way this is every bit as health-giving as a reduction in the volume of noxious gases in the atmosphere, and it is clear to me that Mr Blair himself has helped to lead it. Whether or not he “does” God (as Alastair Campbell put it), this Prime Minister does not do preaching, moralising or finger-wagging. The news media, even the red-top tabloids, have followed suit. Look at the sympathetic way the victims of the Suffolk murders have been treated by the press and broadcasters in recent weeks…..In democratic politics it is no small thing to catch a changed wind early, to let it fill your sails, and to help steer the spirit of a nation into different waters. This Mr Blair has done with a deftness, with a sensitivity to national mood that has been unequalled by any British politician I can remember. And the result has been good. That at least is a legacy of which he should be proud.”

For those of us who like predicting General Elections I fear that 2007 is going to be a frustrating year. How will Labour be viewed when the man who made it OK for many in the middle classes to support the party finally steps down? Will the dramatic changes that a likely Brown government invigorate the party?

I find this hard to call. The polling numbers don’t look good for Gordon but he will surely be perceived very differently when it is Sarah and him posing on the staircase of Number 10 and not the Blairs?

Mike Smithson

PB.C party-goers discuss the chances

Saturday’s second PB.C party attracted 40+ site regulars including Anthony Wells, founder of UK Polling Report, Guido Fawkes and Ian Dale, the owner of Politicos and who served as David Davis’s chief of staff.

Clearly the Lib Dem leadership race was a key discussion point with many of the Tories there saying the candidate that they most feared was the former MEP, Nick Clegg, who is not a candidate and has come out strongly for Ming Campbell.

Guido Fawkes advised everybody that he had just signed up as a Lib Dem member so that he could vote. Those Lib Dems who had been at the party conference earlier in the day had no clear view over the likely winner.

What we need is a further YouGov poll of party members but, apparently, there’s not likely to be one in the next few days. A key element is the alternative vote PR system that the party uses and this could yet spring a surprise result.

Simon Hughes is popular amongst many activists but commands much less support at Westminster and within the party’s headquarters. He might get a lot of first choices but could be at the bottom of the list of a significant group of voters.

Ming Campbell is reckoned to be the establishment choice and he did beat Hughes by 49-21 in the only members’ poll that has been carried out. He’s likely to get a lot of second preferences which could be crucial provided he is still in there for the final two.

Chris Huhne continues to arouse a lot of interest and many were impressed by the content, if not the delivery, of his Saturday speech.

Mark Oaten’s chances were rated at almost zero by just about everybody at the party.

In the betting Simon Hughes continues to be the favourite although there has been an easing in his price and a tightening in the Campbell one overnight.

My other website: There’s a strong political slant today on the other web-site that I have just launched The-Fundraiser.com. This is aimed at people who are involved in raising money.

Mike Smithson