politicalbetting.com

The date-January 14th: The venue - a pub in Central London: The time - 6pm

Thanks to the generosity of Tony Blair’s pollster, Philip Gould, we are able to announce the second Politicalbetting party. This will take place at a pub in Central London on Saturday January 14th from 6pm. The picture above shows Book Value (Philip Grant - the party organiser and the site’s stand-in editor) with Robert Smithson - my son who keeps the site going.

This will be your chance to put faces to the names of many of those who contribute to our discussion forums and to have all-party conversations in a civilised atmosphere about politicalbetting and political outcomes.

The photo-set here is from the first party last June. They were taken by Lucille - Robert’s fiance and the designer of Politicalbetting.

At the moment Philip Gould’s donation will provide enough to cover the room booking and make a contribution to the food costs. If anybody would like to help here so that we can make it completely free please make a donation by clicking the button.

NOTE: Some of those featured now post under different names. It is upto them if they want to reveal who they are. Thus the bottom right picture has Sophia and Graham - both clearly listening carefully to each other’s point of view! I believe that Graham might have another PB.C identity.

For bookings please email Philip Grant and Mike Killingworth (Innocent Abroad).

Mike Smithson

Tory race helps push the site’s comments’ total into six figures

At some point in the next 24 hours somebody is going to post a comment on the site which will be the 100,000th since PB.C came into being in March 2004.

As of time of this article the total number stood at 99,679 so we are almost at the point where the total is in six figures. More than 92,000 of the postings have been made since the start of the year - 52,000 of them in the period since polls closed in the UK General Election at 10pm on May 5th.

These are big figures and reflect the way that PB.C has become the site of choice for people of all party allegiances who want to read about and discuss political betting and political outcomes.

There’s little doubt that we’ve been helped by the enormous interest in the Tory leadership race which provided a focus in what could have been a quiet time after the May 5th General Election.

Meanwhile in a TV interview reported in the Guardian the close Davis aide, Derek Conway, accused David Cameron of “sucking up to the press” and thinking that “he was born to rule“. The BBC was attacked for “taking leave of its senses in its support” for Mr Cameron and newspapers were being “servile” towards him. Conway also attacked Michael Howard for dirty tricks against Davis.

Whether this will help Davis it is hard to see. The betting has remained pretty constant with the best bookie Cameron price of 1/10 and 0.17/1 available on the betting exchanges. You can get 11/2 against David Davis.

Labour leadership. As reported yesterday the Observer had a big story about a big rise in interest on David Miliband for the Labour leadership. We noted that on Betfair the total amount matched on Miliband since the market was established six months ago was £203. In spite of all the coverage not one extra penny has been matched on him on Betfair within the past 24 hours.

Politicalbetting particularly welcomes contributions from people who have not posted before.

Mike Smithson

…. ….

….but we love it really

This is my last posting before my wife Jacky and I travel to our holiday cottage near Biarritz in South-West France and for the next two and a half weeks Philip Grant (Book Value) will be Politicalbetting’s guest editor.

September looks like being an interesting month for political gamblers. There’s the German General Election which might not be as easy for Angela Merkel as seemed probable two or three months ago.

Then there’ll be the party conference season opening with the Lib Dems in Blackpool - the first gathering of the party since the General Election. Will Charles Kennedy sail through that or could the mood amongst delegates be that they a new leader to fight the next General Election?

The Labour conference might produce further clues about when Tony Blair will be stepping aside. We’ve been saying since the General Election that this will happen later rather than sooner and the betting markets have moved in that direction.

Finally the Tories will first decide how they will elect Michael Howard’s replacement and then there will be the contest itself. David Davis looks very strong but how will he compare when faced with the intense scrutiny of the party conference?

Meanwhile a success with ICM. After our complaint to the British Polling Council ICM have now released the full data set of their July Guardian poll and we can see the numbers they are using to weight their samples. There’s plenty there for me to get my teeth into when I return.

Over to Philip.

Mike Smithson

Animations courtesy of http://www.horton-szar.net/clipart/

Will Philip add to his 3,244?

Book Value (Philip Grant) will be the site’s guest editor when I go on my holiday from next Friday for two and a bit weeks.

Philip was one of the first ever people to write a comment on the site and I am sure that he will be shocked to hear that has made or been mentioned in the grand total of 3,244 separate contributions since then. He also took on the task of organising the Politicalbetting party in London in June.

This will enable me to have my first total break from the site since Politicalbetting was created. Whether this is possible we will have to wait and see because as many have found this can be highly addictive. Although I will not be taking my lap-top to our holiday cottage near Biarritz I can still get access on my mobile phone.

Many thanks to Philip for taking this on and I am sure that we all wish him well.

Mike Smithson

Is the site influencing the events it covers?

The cover story of this week’s Spectator is unashamedly based on the story and discussion here on June 9th when we looked at the impact of David Cameron’s Etonian background on the Tory leadership race. Good on the magazine for giving Politicalbetting full credit unlike many other parts of the media who pick up our stories.

In the article Vicki Woods describes how she has moved from her original pro-Davis position and how what was discussed here is influencing her. She writes:-

The craze for internet spread-betting that has swept through City trading floors and the suburban housing market has finally gripped me; for three weeks I’ve been a slave to gambling websites. Up nights, tapping away…. Actually, it’s one website — Politicalbetting.com — which is not exactly a gambling site, more an online tipping service. And I’m not looking to bet, I’m looking for David Cameron.

I know, I know. Call me flighty. Back in May I was all for David Davis as opposition leader for the upcoming and possibly rather grim Brown years. Cameron, 38, was — well, a bit young. (What was I thinking? Etonians are made men at 18.) But on 9 June his rather appealingly 18th-century face was posted on the site alongside: ‘Can the Tories choose a toff? Does being an Old Etonian still disqualify you from being Tory leader?’ The accompanying post noted that this country’s last Etonian prime minister (out of 19 OEs) was Sir Alec Douglas-Home. Forty years ago, at the time when leaders were not voted in but simply ‘emerged’.

So, there’s Cameron, on my screen in his country-shabby navy jumper, looking inescapably toff-y, and I was curious to see how the punters would respond. Two hundred did vigorously, knowledgeably and politically. (Also coarsely.) The main thrust was a) it’s the parliamentary party that’s worried about supposed toffiness more than voters ever are, b) Cameron ‘looks nicer’ than Davis, and c) the dream ticket — for lots — would be Clarke and Cameron, if only Clarke were younger and Cameron older. They noticed his ‘youth’ but what mutterers call ‘David’s Eton thing’ passed them by. ….

Over the decades the Spectator has had a big impact on Tory leadership races and played a big part forty odd years ago in the party moving from the process where leaders “emerged” to a sort of democratic structure. That the magazine is now covering Cameron’s prospects in positive terms in not without significance.

We said bet on Cameron at 5/1 on July 3rd. The price has tightened 4/1 but we stick with our view.

Mike Smithson

The faces behind the names - all revealed tonight!

With Politicalbetting users gathering in London this evening for their post-General Election party there can be little doubt that the focus of discussion will be the South Staffordshire result.

Although nobody doubted that the Tories were going to win very few election-watchers stuck their necks out to forecast that Patrick Cormack would have been returned with an increased majority. Before Thursday the view of many, including me, was that this was a remarkably tough test for the Tories particularly because of the strength of UKIP there in the Euro elections last year and the fact that the EU has moved up the political agenda.

Yet the UKIP share did get into double figures while at the same time the Tory share exceeded what happened in 2001 and what the national swing from May 5th would have indicated.

Has there ever been an election where both the UKIP and Tory vote shares have risen?

This was going to be tough for Labour because there was no risk of the Tories forming a government - the key message that got voters out at the General Election. But what was surprising was that Tony Blair’s tough stance on the EU, which has huge across the board support, seems to have done his party no good. This was something that many participants in our discussion forums had been predicting yet it did not happen. Why?

And are there any portents for the Lib Dems - hot favourites in next month’s Cheadle by-election following their poorish performance here? The party came out with a vote share that was lower than they got there in 1992 even though their current national opinion poll ratings are much higher.

Tonight’s party, at a pub in Belgravia, has been sponsored by IG Index and organised by book_value@hotmail.co.uk. There have also been one or two other donors. Thanks to all and I am really looking forward to meeting many of the people behind the names on the site.

Mike Smithson