politicalbetting.com

The delegate totals might be a problem - but the narrative’s changed

On Monday night it was suggested here that it was “being premature” to write Hillary’s political obituary because the numbers coming from the latest polls suggested that there had been a significant shift away from Obama. Late polling changes like that on the eve of an election are usually significant and so it has been with Super Tuesday 2.

As I write the Texas results are not yet all in but the margins of victory in Ohio and Rhode Island are far bigger than that which was being predicted at the weekend.

Of course she still has a biggish delegate deficit - but what has struck me has been the ruthlessness of her team in raising alleged discrepancies in the overnight Texas caucuses. This, surely, is a marker of what we can expect over the disputed Michigan and Florida delegations and the super-delegates.

At current prices, Betfair has as I write 2.9/1 on Hillary for the nomination, it’s worth getting something on.

Mike Smithson

Is the Mayor being hit by all bad publicity?

A new YouGov poll for London ITV News has Ken fallen 5% behind Boris in the race for the London Mayoralty. These ae the shares compared with the last proper survey from the firm in December - JOHNSON 44%(nc): LIVINGSTONE 39%(-5): PADDICK 12%(+5)

The YouGov boss, Peter Kellner has confirmed to me that the survey took place from Tuesday to Thursday of last week and involved a sample of 1,003. In a TV interview this evening Kellner said that he thought that “Ken was in Trouble”.

In response Livingstone has said that Labour’s private polling is showing that he is still ahead - by 2% of those certain to vote. This is from a survey from Ipsos-MORI. When I see the detail I will give it prominence.

I contacted the pollster this evening for the information and was told that information about the survey would be made available within the time-frame laid down - which is two days.

What are critical are the dates of the fieldwork for the Ipsos-MORI survey. Did this take place at the same time or is it a bit old or newer?

In the mayoral betting you can still get 6/4 on Boris which seems like a bargain.

Mike Smithson

Is this the woman who will join Obama on the ticket?

Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround in Hillary’s campaign in the next few days then in the middle of next week speculation will turn to who the junior senator from Illinois will choose to be his running mate.

There has, of course, been talk that it should be Hillary herself and certainly that would please large sections of the party. But after the campaign that we have seen and her tactics in the past few days is that going to be possible? And would having a Clinton on the ticket simply reinforce the Republican vote?

What Hillary has shown, however, is that there is a large constituency of women voters which needs to be kept on board. A woman on the ticket could play a big part.

Consider, therefore, Kathleen Sebelius - the Governor of Kansas who, herself, was tipped as a potential candidate for for President after Kerry’s defeat.

Speculation about her future was heightened by the fact that in January she was chosen by the Party’s congressional leaders to give the to Bush’’s to Republican President George W. Bush’s State of the Union Address.

She also got onto the Obama band-wagon early. A week before Super Tuesday and the Kansas Caucus she endorsed his campaign. Obama won the caucus easily, with over 70% support. Kathleen has also done TV spots for Barack.

She’s also chair of the Democratic Governors Association - which is often described as a very good launchpad for those with political ambitions.

On Betfair Kathleen is the 3.6/1 favourite - well ahead of her PaddyPower price of 5/1. When there’s such a differential between a fixed odds price and the betting exchange then the former won’t last long.

The most I was allowed to put on was £78 - but that should give a reasonable return.

Mike Smithson

It’s 5/2 that Darling will be out this year

William Hill have put up a market, which is online, that “Alastair Darling Will Be Out Of Office By The End Of The Year? (2008)”. I’ve checked with the firm and “out of office” means no longer being chancellor.

Given the poor poll ratings that he’s getting and the growing problems he’s facing this seems like a pretty good bet. The handling of Northern Rock will be a major Tory and Lib Dem issue for weeks to come and there is always the possibility of more bad news. Also Ed Balls is waiting in the wings and he does not give the impression of being a very patient person.

All of this is in a context of a developing media narrative which does not look good for the government.

We know that Brown will be loyal to the last but if the pressure mounts then, surely, there’s a good chance that Darling will be moved or sacked completely.

The timing of the bet is good. To win a change can happen at any time between now and the end of the year.

Get your money on - this is good value.

Mike Smithson

Is Ken being ousted the best bet around at the moment?

Cards on the table straight-away: quite simply I believe that the 1.84/1 that’s available on Boris Johnson to win the London Mayoralty is by far the best value political bet that’s currently available. Last October I pocketed £3,400 on Gordon’s general election U-turn and in the coming eleven weeks I’ll be investing at least half of that on Boris - when the prices are right.

As Sean Fear observed in his excellent analysis on Friday Ken won last time thanks to the fact that many non-Labour voters in the GLA election opted to split their ticket and vote for Ken in the Mayoral race.

It’s hard to see in the current climate the “Livingstone Conservatives” or “Livingstone Lib Dems” staying with their 2004 choice and this has two consequences - it will boost the Johnson and Paddick votes and depress the Livingstone one.

The big development in the past week or so has been the hiring of the Australian election guru, Lynton Crosby, to work on the Johnson campaign. What he’s good at is finding things for his candidate to say thus commanding attention from the media.

Today’s story is a case in point. As part of a plan to fight “incivility, rowdiness, violence” on public transport Johnson is demanding that rowdy and violent youths on the capital’s buses should have their free travel cards confiscated.

Yesterday we had Boris reviving the idea of a London airport off Kent in the Thames estuary as a way of relieving the pressure on Heathrow. Whether this is feasible or not I don’t know but the idea that someone is thinking of their plight should go down well in the outer boroughs to the west of London.

All this is against a background of continued attacks on Ken for the way he has run London. There are further broadsides in the Evening Standard tonight.

In 2004 Ken chalked up a first round total of 35.7% of the vote in the Mayoral election. In the GLA election at the same time Labour got 24.7% - so a massive part of Ken’s success was in securing votes from non-Labour supporters. Will that happen on May 1st? My guess is that it won’t on the same scale and the chances of Ken failing make the latest Johnson odds look attractive.

Mike Smithson

The above are the mid afternoon (1545 GMT) prices on the races for the Democratic and the Republican nominees for this November’s US Presidential election.

The picture is getting much clearer as we move into the next crucial phase of state primaries. On Saturday 26 January it’s the South Carolina Democratic Primary and the following Tuesday there will be the crucial Republican and the Florida Democratic primaries. Once all those have been completed we should have an even firmer view of the two politicians who will head their parties tickets in November.

Although Obama looks set to win South Carolina this appears to have been discounted by the markets and unless there is a huge victory there I do not see much change in the Democratic betting.

The GOP race in Florida could be crucial for all the contenders still in the race and might well produce a surprise. Can Giuliani finally get his act together? Will McCain be able to hold onto to his lead? Is this the moment for Mitt Romney. Is it possible that the Iowa GOP victor, Mike Huckabee could get back in the race again?

My view is that the final will be Clinton against McCain or Romney.

Mike Smithson