politicalbetting.com

Has the Sun switched from MORI following the Mayoral outcome?

A key thing that polling does, apart from to give some idea about the outcome of a future general election, is to help create the environment in which the political process operates. As we have seen so often the pressure on party leaders can be driven by poor polling numbers.

For there’s little doubt that shocking polls for Labour, like the one in this morning’s Sun, can affect the whole way that contemporary politics is perceived and one set of bad numbers can lead to another.

But judging from the Sun’s report of its poll this morning it looks as though the top-selling tabloid newspaper might have switched to YouGov. The report notes that the paper “…chose YouGov after they accurately predicted the results of last week’s London Mayoral election.”

For the last couple of years or so the polls the paper has carried out, almost on a monthly basis, have been by MORI. Now if today’s development means that future Sun surveys will be by YouGov then there could be a pattern of at least three a month from the online pollster. YouGov, of course, already does regular surveys for the Daily Telegraph and the Sunday Times.

I’m not sure whether this is a good thing - different approaches by different firms can give us a clearer picture and help us to understand better what is going on.

More YouGov polls could also affect the betting - particularly the spread markets on the number of seats that the main parties will get at the next general election. Market movements tend to be drive by the latest polling numbers and, not unexpectedly, the Tory spreads have moved upwards overnight.

The Conservative seat price on Spreadfair is now at 343-347 seats - the lower figure being the sell level and the higher one the buy level. Profits and losses in this form of betting are determined by working out the difference between the contract level and multiplying by your stake amount. So if you sold the Tories at 343 seats at £50 a seat and Cameron’s party ended with 373 seats then you would lose 30 times 50 = £1,500. On the other hand if they only got 323 seats you would win 20 times 50 = £1,000.

With this firm the prices are set by what other punters want to offer. The other spread firms fix the levels themselves and both of them have been down overnight. Expect a new price fix this morning.

Mike Smithson

Is this the woman who could turn Labour’s fortunes around?

I don’t claim to understand the intricacies of Labour party internal politics but after pondering over the past few days I have come up with a couple of names of people I believe could turn round voters views of the party and make the next general election less of the disaster than it looks at the moment.

What’s needed is a different style and a different tone and a leader who comes over as being authentic and likeable. Absolutely central is to have someone who can communicate and has a high emotional intelligence. So what about a woman?

I am becoming more impressed by Jackie Smith who was a good choice, going for kebabs from her local shop notwithstanding, for Home Secretay - a role that has swallowed up many of Labour’s big beasts - but I don’t she’s quite got it yet for the big job.

Harriet Harman was my eventual betting choice for the Deputy job last year when all the money was going on Alan Johnson. She did well as a stand-in for Gord at PMQs last month but her voice lets her down. She always sounds as though she is whining.

The leading Labour woman who stands head and shoulders above everybody is Tessa Jowell who got demoted by Gordon last year. Her performance on TV last after Labour’s disaster in the locals and as we awaited the London result was superb. There are few other politicians who could have coped so well and come over so effectively

I think David Cameron would find her a very tricky adversary. She would enjoy an amazing media honeymoon when, dare I suggest, calling an election could be on the cards.

Whether she would get it or even wants it I don’t know and she is regarded as too much of a Blairite for large parts of the movement. But I believe she has what it takes. If indeed Gordon was ousted or had to step down on health grounds then I can only think of only one other leading Labour politician who could equal her. His prospects will be discussed in a separate article and I will leave that and his identity dangling there.

Tessa is priced at 100/1 on the next leader market. I’ve put a fiver on.

Mike Smithson

Ever since the betting markets opened on the Crewe and Nantwich by election all the money has been going one way. Ladbrokes opened with a 4/5 Tory price which then went to 4/7 and is now at 1/2.

Betfair has seen a big rush to get on the Tories and, as I write, the best you can get is 0.34/1. Another bookmaker has 4/9.

But is punter confidence in the Tories justified - after all we have to go back until June 1982 to find the last time that the party gained a seat in a Westminster by-election?

The central questions are how many of the 22,140 who voted for Gwyneth Dunwoody in 2005 have switched and, the extent to which party machine is be able to get its core vote to the polling stations on May 22nd. For Labour always finds it much harder to get its people out in elections when the government of the country is not at stake - just look at last week’s locals.

The national general election polls are telling us two things: that Labour supporters are much less likely than Tories to say they are certain to vote and that between 12% and 20% of those who say they were Labour in 2005 have now switched to the Tories.

On the face of it then it’s a no-brainer - if the Tories can maintain the bulk of their general election vote of 14,162 and are attracting Labour switchers on the scale that the polls are suggesting then Cameron will do it.

The fly in the ointment could be the Lib Dems who polled a creditable 8,083 three years ago. Their initial task is to persuade enough of the electors that voting for them, and not the Tories, is the best way of unseating Labour. They have also got a terrific by election record, hundreds of activists who flood into the area every day to help, and a track record of producing by election literature that works.

Their challenge is not being squeezed out with the media increasingly presenting the current political situation in two party terms. What happened to the Lib Dem vote in London shows where that can lead.

By election polls. We have only seen two of these in recent years - at Hartlepool in 2004 and in Gwent last year. In the former the Labour vote was hugely inflated while in the latter the poll got the final outcome wrong. They are very difficult for pollsters to do because it’s hard getting a representative sample. Also opinion is more likely than at other elections to change during a campaign. I don’t know whether there will be one but if there is I would treat it with ultra caution.

Mike Smithson

Populus reports its biggest ever Tory lead

The May Populus survey for the Times is out this evening and shows a small increase in the Tory lead compared with what the firm reported a fortnight ago. The figures are with changes on that survey - CON 40%(nc): LAB 29%(-1): LD 19%(nc).

So yet another poll is showing the Tories in the 40s with Labour in the 20s. This, I think, is Labour’s worst ever deficit from Populus.

The fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday so a large number of the interviews would have taken place before Boris’s win in London was made known.

Populus use the now standard model for all telephone pollsters bar MORI of weighting the sample by what people said they did at the last election but their formula is a bit more favourable to Labour than ICM or ComRes. They also apply a turnout filter.

So we have not seen a full post-Boris poll yet. That should come in the next few days.

All this will underpin the move to the Tories on the commons seat spread markets though I do not foresee and big movements there until after he Crewe and Nantwich by election.

Mike Smithson

What do you think of the recent market moves?

I have just three positions on the Democratic race.

One my 50/1 and 33/1 long-shot bets from 2005 and 2006 that Barack will go all the way.

Two bets at an average of 5/1 that Hillary will get the nomination

Three bets on her at an average of 6/1 that she will get the V-P slot.

The closer this gets to the convention the greater the chance she has of making it. Even if she doesn’t then I can foresee pressure on Obama to take her as his running mate.

This might all look so different in the morning.

Mike Smithson

How will the prices look on Wednesday?

I’m just arrived in the Peak District to celebrate my Boris winnings on a short break.

Tomorrow is, of course, the next mega-round of primary battles. Paul Maggs will once again be in the guest editor slot, assisted by Morus.

Mike Smithson