politicalbetting.com

Ever since the betting markets opened on the Crewe and Nantwich by election all the money has been going one way. Ladbrokes opened with a 4/5 Tory price which then went to 4/7 and is now at 1/2.

Betfair has seen a big rush to get on the Tories and, as I write, the best you can get is 0.34/1. Another bookmaker has 4/9.

But is punter confidence in the Tories justified - after all we have to go back until June 1982 to find the last time that the party gained a seat in a Westminster by-election?

The central questions are how many of the 22,140 who voted for Gwyneth Dunwoody in 2005 have switched and, the extent to which party machine is be able to get its core vote to the polling stations on May 22nd. For Labour always finds it much harder to get its people out in elections when the government of the country is not at stake - just look at last week’s locals.

The national general election polls are telling us two things: that Labour supporters are much less likely than Tories to say they are certain to vote and that between 12% and 20% of those who say they were Labour in 2005 have now switched to the Tories.

On the face of it then it’s a no-brainer - if the Tories can maintain the bulk of their general election vote of 14,162 and are attracting Labour switchers on the scale that the polls are suggesting then Cameron will do it.

The fly in the ointment could be the Lib Dems who polled a creditable 8,083 three years ago. Their initial task is to persuade enough of the electors that voting for them, and not the Tories, is the best way of unseating Labour. They have also got a terrific by election record, hundreds of activists who flood into the area every day to help, and a track record of producing by election literature that works.

Their challenge is not being squeezed out with the media increasingly presenting the current political situation in two party terms. What happened to the Lib Dem vote in London shows where that can lead.

By election polls. We have only seen two of these in recent years - at Hartlepool in 2004 and in Gwent last year. In the former the Labour vote was hugely inflated while in the latter the poll got the final outcome wrong. They are very difficult for pollsters to do because it’s hard getting a representative sample. Also opinion is more likely than at other elections to change during a campaign. I don’t know whether there will be one but if there is I would treat it with ultra caution.

Mike Smithson

Populus reports its biggest ever Tory lead

The May Populus survey for the Times is out this evening and shows a small increase in the Tory lead compared with what the firm reported a fortnight ago. The figures are with changes on that survey - CON 40%(nc): LAB 29%(-1): LD 19%(nc).

So yet another poll is showing the Tories in the 40s with Labour in the 20s. This, I think, is Labour’s worst ever deficit from Populus.

The fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday so a large number of the interviews would have taken place before Boris’s win in London was made known.

Populus use the now standard model for all telephone pollsters bar MORI of weighting the sample by what people said they did at the last election but their formula is a bit more favourable to Labour than ICM or ComRes. They also apply a turnout filter.

So we have not seen a full post-Boris poll yet. That should come in the next few days.

All this will underpin the move to the Tories on the commons seat spread markets though I do not foresee and big movements there until after he Crewe and Nantwich by election.

Mike Smithson

What do you think of the recent market moves?

I have just three positions on the Democratic race.

One my 50/1 and 33/1 long-shot bets from 2005 and 2006 that Barack will go all the way.

Two bets at an average of 5/1 that Hillary will get the nomination

Three bets on her at an average of 6/1 that she will get the V-P slot.

The closer this gets to the convention the greater the chance she has of making it. Even if she doesn’t then I can foresee pressure on Obama to take her as his running mate.

This might all look so different in the morning.

Mike Smithson

How will the prices look on Wednesday?

I’m just arrived in the Peak District to celebrate my Boris winnings on a short break.

Tomorrow is, of course, the next mega-round of primary battles. Paul Maggs will once again be in the guest editor slot, assisted by Morus.

Mike Smithson

There’s a piece by me on the Guardian’s Comment is Free about the polling and betting on the mayoral election.

Mike Smithson

What will the headlines be like three weeks today?

It has become one of the great hardy annuals in UK political journalism - the Sunday papers after the May elections when year in year out the main story has been about the future of one party leader or another.

And so it is today and above are a couple of the front pages. But is it different this time? Does Labour’s worst local election performance for forty years combined with the loss of the London mayoralty add up to something more.

Quite simply is Gordon going to survive to fight the next general election? For the problem this weekend is that there are maybe 200 Labour MPs who are anxiously looking at the numbers in their own seats and thinking that they might be out of work in the not too distant future - that their political careers could be over.

Brown’s greatest asset is the same as it was a year ago when the parliamentary party gave him the leadership and the keys to Number 10 without a contest - there is no obvious alternative.

What could add to the turmoil within Labour ranks is the Crewe and Nantwich by election in just eighteen days time. For if the Tories are smart they will make it a referendum on Gordon Brown’s prime ministership and the future of the government. The voters there will be told that they have it in their power to send a “we want change” message to Westminster.

In other by election defences since Labour arrived in 1997 such an approach simply did not resonate because the Tories were so weak and did not look like a government in waiting. But opinion is shifting as Alan Watkins notes in the Indy on Sunday “….the change during the morning after May Day was that, for the first time, people became convinced that Mr David Cameron could win an outright majority.”

You can, of course, bet on Brown’s survival or not. I like the “leaders at the next election” on Betfair which has yet to really take off. You’ve also got the “Brown departure date” where it just 3/1 that he will be out in Q2 2008.

Another possible betting opportunity is on the next Labour leader where David Miliband is the 2/1 favourite.

Mike Smithson