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How are you going to do in our annual competition?

On January 1st 2007 we opened our annual competition for the Political Forecaster of the Year. The questions that were asked then are set out below.

With Nick Clegg safely ensconced as Lib Dem leader nearly all the issues have been resolved - the only thing that could still spring a surprise could be final Guardian ICM survey of 2007. To view the entries please click here - which takes you to the National Web Archive where everything that has ever been written on PBC is stored for preservation in perpetuity.

Click through the pages to see who has got it most right and most wrong during the past year. The final result will be announced on New Year’s Day.

Paul Maggs, who manages PBC competitions and I are already working on the 2008 contest which will be published within the next fortnight.

Has “The Observer” paid yet? Thanks for the supportive comments on yesterday’s threads. Alas there is nothing to report. I have sent him a couple of emails but have had no response.

Mike Smithson

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On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer except where stated)
1. Prime Minister (bonus of 150 points for correct answers that are not Gordon Brown)
2. Leader of the Opposition
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer
6. President of France (100 points)
7. Scotland’s First Minister
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination (100 points)
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination (100 points)

For how many days during 2007 will…? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero. For things you think are not going to change enter 365 days)
10. Tony Blair serve as PM
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form

What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…? (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.

What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as.. (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
18. The Tories highest rating during the year
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year
20. The LDs highest rating during the year
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year

Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections. (For the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments 50 points for each correct answer reducing by 10 points for each seat out. For the council election 75 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out)
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections

But how will either cope with the Vince Cable comparison ?

With the result of the Lib Dem leadership contest due to be announced at 2.30 pm the average entry in our PB competition gave it to the party’s home affairs spokesman with 53.71% of the vote. This is quite close to the 56% predicted by the only media-sponsored party membership poll of the campaign - that by YouGov for SkyNews.

One figure that might be interesting is the number of spoiled ballot papers. For there have been suggestions that a number of voters might have been tempted to write in the name of the party’s acting leader, Vince Cable. He, of course, has commanded a mass of favourable media attention during his few weeks in the role.

His sharp wit at PMQs and his continued pressure on Northern Rock have added to Brown’s woes during a particularly challenging period for the prime minister.

In fact Cable has emerged as such a dominant commons figure that it’s it’s hard to see how either Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne are going to be able to do anything like as well. Inevitably the winner today is in danger of being compared unfavourably with Cable and this could undermine the hoped-for media honeymoon.

There’s another element - Tory and Labour MPs have laid off their normal practice of barracking whoever is the LibDem leader. So Huhne or Clegg are going to face a barrage of heckling when they stand up for the first time with both main parties having a real interest in inflicting early damage.

If it is, as looks likely, Nick Clegg then expect to hear the word “calamity” being woven into back-benchers questions and shouted from the gangways as the ex-MEP rises to speak. Everybody recalls the reception that Ming got first time out and it isn’t going to be any easier for Clegg.

What will be the electoral and polling impact of the new arrival? That’s hard to say.

Thanks to Paul Maggs for running the competition and collating the entries. You can download the list PBC Lib Dem comp Dec 2007.xls”>here.

Contact Please use the new email address Politicalpunter@googlemail.com

Mike Smithson