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The main political story on ABC News this afternoon is that “..intermediaries” have resumed discussing the possibility of an Obama-Clinton “dream team” ticket…”.

A former top Bill Clinton aide and now ABC News’ chief Washington correspondent, George Stephanopolous, said: “I think it’s very much a possibility and there are others around Sen. Clinton, other top Democrats who think the strongest ticket would be a joint ticket..There are intermediaries discussing this very scenario”

He went on:”..Right now Sen. Obama is probably reluctant to do this, given the feelings coming out of this campaign right now…”I do think that if it were accepted, Sen. Clinton would be under some pressure and would like to accept, I think”

Meanwhile a group of activists party insiders have set up a web-site to promote the the idea and this is getting a lot of coverage.

Latest Democratic V-P betting is here

Mike Smithson

Could clearing her massive campaign debts be part of a deal?

In the aftermath of the Tuesday’s primaries speculation has started on how the Obama-Clinton contest might end and whether we could see a negotiated deal between the two of them.

An experienced political operator who has been involved in such an arrangement before, Dan Conley, has a must read piece in Salon in which he suggests three things that Hillary could demand to pull out.

Firstly there’s cash. The Obama fund-raising operation has been one of the wonders of this election and arguably is at the heart of his success. The reason Hillary has had to lend her campaign more money is that she was forced to deplete her resources in Pennsylvania. Conley argues that part of a deal with Obama would involve the latter picking up her campaign debts. In fact Conley goes so far as to argue that “Hillary can keep lending money to her campaign, at least in the short term, without much risk because it’s very likely that Obama will agree to pay it in exchange for peace.”

Secondly Obama could accept Hillary’s healthcare plan When she does concede she needs to show that her effort has not been in vain and acceptance by Obama of a version of this key policy plank could be vital.

Thirdly Hillary could have an effective veto on the V-P choice. If she did not want the position herself, Conley argues, she could have a means to “..tactfully say no to another woman making it onto the ticket to steal her spotlight. She could ensure that none of the potential 2012 candidates get positioned for a run in case Obama should fail in November.” Conley’s suggestion of a mutually agreeable choice is the Oxford-educated contender from last time, Wes Clarke.

Will it happen? I think we are in the end game and Conley’s piece sounds convincing. His observation about the V-P choice is very telling.

White House race betting is here.

Mike Smithson

Is it time to start using our White House race logo?

With Obama’s decisive victory in North Carolina and Hillary’s victory in Indiana being by a fraction it’s starting to look as though the marathon fight for the Democratic nomination is nearing its end. As Obama spinners were saying overnight - they are now just 200 delegates from clinching it.

Add onto that the reports that she has had to make a further big loan to her campaign and you get a picture of the challenges she faces. The Clintons are moderately wealthy - but how long will others fund what increasingly looks like a doomed venture.

All the predictions ahead of the latest two primaries in Indiana and North Carolina were that she would lose the latter - but she needed to win the former by a big enough margin to convince the party establishment that she still had a case. She’s got a victory but is it big enough?

Her whole strategy was based on stretching this out until the August convention in August and then using the disputed Florida and Michigan delegation issues to bang her case home. That required, more than anything, momentum in the final phases of the primary campaign. The tightness of the Indiana result might just have sealed her fate.

It’s too early for the number crunching to have been completed but Obama is certain to have bettered his position in both the overall pledged delegate count and the popular vote.

So it’s increasingly looking like a McCain-Obama run-off and the serious scrutiny, for the first time, will be on the 72 year old with a furious temper. My 50/1 Obama bet is looking even better.

Mike Smithson

         Will this be over before the Convention in Denver?

If the Superdelegates are reluctant to  finish this race before the final states, Montana and South Dakota, have their say on June 3rd, then it seems likely that Clinton has almost another month in this race. She will almost certainly lose on pledged delegates and is unlikely to win the popular vote either, but is refusing to step aside.

Many have speculated that the Superdelegates are disinclined to side with one party or the other, for fear of angering a potentially very powerful Senator or even the next President of the United States. Many are junior Congressmen, not inclined to raise their heads above the parapet at present, but who may feel more comfortable choosing under the crazed camouflage of Convention shennanigans.

 With Indiana still very close, Clinton clearly feels she is still in this race. With only a couple of hundred delegate-votes between the pair, it seems almost certain that decisions concerning the Michigan and Florida delegations will be decisive in some way or another. The meetings that could end this before the Convention are scheduled for the end of May and mid June. To allow the various DNC Committees to pass judgement on the delegations without prejudicing either candidate, I’m sure Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi will be encouraging Superdelegates to announce their preferences in the first week of June.

 Barack Obama is within spitting distance of his party’s nomination, but I would expect that he still has at least another month before he can be sure that his name will be on the ballot in November.

 Morus

What do you think of the recent market moves?

I have just three positions on the Democratic race.

One my 50/1 and 33/1 long-shot bets from 2005 and 2006 that Barack will go all the way.

Two bets at an average of 5/1 that Hillary will get the nomination

Three bets on her at an average of 6/1 that she will get the V-P slot.

The closer this gets to the convention the greater the chance she has of making it. Even if she doesn’t then I can foresee pressure on Obama to take her as his running mate.

This might all look so different in the morning.

Mike Smithson

How will the prices look on Wednesday?

I’m just arrived in the Peak District to celebrate my Boris winnings on a short break.

Tomorrow is, of course, the next mega-round of primary battles. Paul Maggs will once again be in the guest editor slot, assisted by Morus.

Mike Smithson