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How will the prices look on Wednesday?

I’m just arrived in the Peak District to celebrate my Boris winnings on a short break.

Tomorrow is, of course, the next mega-round of primary battles. Paul Maggs will once again be in the guest editor slot, assisted by Morus.

Mike Smithson

Every so often in this pro-longed battle for the Democratic nomination someone pops and puts forward the name of Al Gore - seen in the picture giving his acceptance speech after being awarded the Nobel Prize.

The argument is usually the same - the bitter contest between Obama and Clinton has so embittered large parts of the party that the only way of creating the unity required to compete in November is by looking to someone else - Gore.

And so it has been in the aftermath of Pennsylvania which has raised further questions about Obama as well as worries that the fight itself is damaging the party.

Steven Stark of the Boston Phoenix puts it like this: “In truth, Gore would be a stronger candidate in November than the two front-runners. He knows what it’s like to run in a tough presidential campaign, which, as we’re finding out with Obama, is a huge advantage. He is, after all, a Nobel Prize winner; he has the advantage of now running from outside Washington even though he’s as experienced as John McCain; and he might be able to pick off a Southern state or two. He’s already won once - with an asterisk. And he could put the electoral focus back on the economy and the Republican record of the past eight years - which it will rarely be as long as Clinton or Obama is the nominee.

Sure, Gore’s entry would obviously not be greeted with waves of enthusiasm by Obama supporters. Still, he is quite popular with one of the Illinois senator’s principal constituencies: the young…It’s true that drafting a new candidate at this point would be unprecedented. But the virtually deadlocked race between the two remaining candidates makes it at least possible.”

I don’t think that this is going to happen - but it just might. So over the past few months my betting has been to lay (bet against either Hillary of Barack) rather than betting for them. Generally the prices have been about the same but it does mean that I’ve built up substantial potential profits should, for whatever reason, the two do not make it.

Latest Democratic nomination betting is here.

Mike Smithson

The presumptive GOP nominee, John McCain, is seeking to put pressure on his party in North Carolina to try to get this commercial withdrawn. We’ll see.

Mike Smithson

Picture DaveMundy

Is it down now to whether she can keep raising the money?

Whether you agree with her or not you have to admire the sheer guts and determination of Hillary to stick in this race. The Pennsylvania demographics and the fact that it was a closed primary meant that the state was always going to be a “must win” for her - but was the margin enough?

Her lead over Obama was decisive but not on the scale required to seriously eat into her opponent’s overall national popular vote count lead.

For the national numbers continue to be against her and it is almost certainly the case that the only way she can get the nomination is if the elders of the party, the so-called super-delegates, decide that she is best at the top of the ticket in spite of the mathematics.

But what a decision that would be. They would be alienating a vast growing army of Obama supporters and cutting themselves off from the ever-successful Barack fundraising machine. And what would it mean for the future of the party if they ignored what had been the pledged delegate count?

My guess is that is now down to Hillary’s fundraising capabilities. Can she attract the support of donors to pay off existing debts and still compete with the the Obama operation? And can she show the party leadership that she has what it takes to produce a well-funded campaign against McCain? Barack, remember, can probably raise $2m a day.

For this reason, if no other, Barack is still a worthy favourite but Hillary is still there - and she ain’t going to give up. In the nomination betting the money has been going on her overnight.

Mike Smithson

Will she win by a big enough margin in Pennsylvania to stay in the race?

It’s another US primary night on PB and I hope you’ll stay with us to share your news and insights. The voting will close at 1am UK time when we should iget news of the first exit polls.

The critical thing tonight will be how both camps spin it. What percentages will define success or failure? A consensus seems to be emerging that if Obama can keep Hillary’s lead down to 5% or less then it will a great result for him. At the other end a good result for Hillary will be a double digit lead on votes.

My guess is that it will be somewhere in between - and then the spinning will begin.

One indicator is that Obama will be spending the evening at a rally in Indiana - Hillary is staying within Pennsylvania. We shall see.

The final polls (courtesy of PoliticaInsider) were:-
# Zogby: Clinton +10
# SurveyUSA: Clinton +6
# Suffolk: Clinton +10
# Quinnipiac: Clinton +7
# Strategic Vision: Clinton +7
# American Research Group: Clinton +13
# Mason-Dixon: Clinton +5
# Public Policy Polling: Obama +3

Latest nomination betting is here.

Mike Smithson

This is the ad that is running tonight on TV stations throughout Pennsylvania as Hillary seeks to ensure she secures the win in the primary tomorrow that will help keep her in the race.

The latest polling is here.

Mike Smithson