politicalbetting.com

Will the mood about Tory prospects now change?

One of the most satisfying moments in betting is when you are transferring your profits into your bank account and it was good to see that Betfair settled the London mayoral market so so soon after last night’s results.

For this activity is more than about the money but tangible confirmation of your predictive abilities. Anybody can have a view on a political outcome - the gambler backs up his with hard cash.

But what should punters do now? Is Boris’s victory in London going to change the view about Cameron’s prospects in a general election? Will received opinion move to the idea that another old-Etonian in his 40s is on course to take the biggest prize in UK politics - becoming prime minister of a majority Conservative government?

For one of the consequences of the London result is that it underlines what I described last week as the golden rule of polling - “that the survey that’s likely to be the best election predictor is the one that shows Labour in the least favourable position.”

It will also mean that greater credence will be given to the findings of the sometimes controversial online pollster, YouGov, which for the second London mayoral race in succession got the final result right to within one per cent.

And since the budget it has been YouGov which has been showing the biggest Labour deficits - a colossal 18% in the last survey.

The SportingIndex and IG Index spread betting markets on general elections seats were closed yesterday but new post-mayoral election spreads should be published this morning. The Spreadfair spread betting exchange has been operating but most of the best bargains - Tory buys and Labour sells - have been swallowed up (some by me!)

This is the form of betting where the number of seats the parties will get are traded like stocks and shares. It’s high risk but high reward because the more you are right in your prediction the more you make. Sadly the reverse is true if you get it wrong.

Mike Smithson

Massive poll leads yet still the nervousness

In the past week and a bit we’ve had surveys from all five firms that do national general election polls and all have reported the same trend - a big shift to the Conservatives. The ComRes 14% lead was the last to come and overnight produced figures that would convert into a near Tory landslide at a general election.

To recap these are the latest ratings from each of the firms:-

Yet just look at the Commons seat spread betting markets above. Even with the polls all saying the same thing punters are still not convinced that we might be heading for a David Cameron majority at the next election.

But could everything change after Thursday elections? Could a Tory win in London and big successes elsewhere transform the political mood? Could now be the moment to get your general election bets on?

What strikes me is that we are in completely uncharted territory. It is now nearly thirty years since the Tories were last threatening to unseat a Labour government and we have no real reference points. In spite of the ratings nobody quite believes that a change of government is possible but could we be nearing the tipping point?

One of the site’s regular contributors, Rod Crosby, always argues that changes of government have never happened without in the preceding years the main opposition party winning seats off the governing party in Westminster by elections. I think that’s right probably right although MPs appear younger and healthier these days and there have not been as many opportunities.

But the next big development in domestic politics will be Labour’s defence of Crewe and Nantwich following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody. We have not got a date yet but this contest provides the ideal platform for the Tories to capitalise on their likely progress this Thursday.

So for those who play the spread betting commons seat markets now might be the moment to move. Could the price panel above be the last occasion when we see the Tory BUY level being lower than the threshold for an overall majority?

Mike Smithson

Cameron’s Tories take an 18% lead

The April YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is just out and reports another decline in Labour’s share to just 26%. the figures are with comparisons on the last survey from the pollster two weeks ago CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-2): LD 17% (nc)

The paper says that this is the biggest lead by the Tories since 1987. It comes after a week which saw the big reversal in Labour ICM ratings when the Guardian monthly survey reported just a 5% lead.

As I have argued here repeatedly here much of the change in opinion polls is driven by media coverage. In the days leading up to last weekend, when the ICM fieldwork was taking place, the opposition was hardly in the news and the political headlines were largely taken up with Gordon Brown’s visit to the US.

This week, of course, we have had the threat of the tax rebellion and a lot of focus on the Tories. Cameron has appeared a lot in the media which appears to be a big driver.

The big issue is what does this say about next Thursday local elections and the big battle in London. Can Labour in the capital duck out of the national trend? Or is this just YouGov - the objective of much left wing criticism at the moment.

But remember Smithson’s rule: as I always say when there is a sensational polling movement “A rogue poll is one where you do not agree with the numbers.”

Mike Smithson

The April ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and reports a big reversal on last month.

The figures which, unlike the chart from the paper, has comparisons with the last published ICM poll are: CON 39% (-4): LAB 34 (+2): LD 19% (+1)

So instead of a poll suggesting a substantial Tory overall majority we are now back in hung parliament territory with Labour and the Tories competing for top spot on seats.

This polling change could not have come at a better time for the Prime Minister as he seeks to face the rebellion over the 10% tax rate.

Cameron, however, has a bigger lead on “who would make the best PM?”. He gets 37% against 29% for Brown and 8% for Nick Clegg.

This is one poll and we’ll have to see whether it is the start of a trend showing Labour doing better again.

But remember Smithson’s rule: A rogue poll is one where you do not agree with the numbers.

Mike Smithson

Was getting a coronation the political achievement of the decade?

As another pollster, Populus, reports a double digit deficit for Labour let’s consider this morning the remarkable campaign a year ago that saw Gordon become his party’s leader and PM without having to face a contest.

For in the year before the “handover” a vast body of polling evidence built up that Labour would do much worse with him as a leader than the party was already doing. The results of the monthly named leader questions, reproduced above from UKPollingReport, were there for all to see yet Team Brown managed to convince well over 300 Labour MPs to give him a coronation.

For the recent polling has shown that ICM and Populus got this one right - and members of the PLP were duped with the result that many of their jobs and salaries are now on the line.

For a long period in the run-up to last June I argued, and for a time took a big betting position on the proposition, that nobody who was polling so badly against Cameron when the “named leader” question was put could possibly make it to the top job. It seemed a no-brainer. Parties like to keep in power and two of our most respected pollsters were saying month after month that Gordon was an electoral liability - not an electoral asset.

I highlighted these results whenever they came out and was subject to a lot of abuse. The “astro-turfers” would come out in their droves to argue that these polls should be ignored - it was all hypothetical they said.

In trying to explain the numbers which were so consistent I suggested that Labour’s poorer position with Brown named was because Cameron was included in the voting intention question. That might have had a part but what we have seen in recent weeks suggests that it was Brown that affected thinking.

Looking back one can only marvel at the way Gord’s coronation campaign succeeded and how they managed to diss the polls. The only problem is that Labour will be facing a general election within two years and the prospects don’t look good.

Mike Smithson

Are we now heading for a Conservative majority?

As well as the Ken-Boris survey there’s also a Populus poll on national voting intentions in the Sunday Mirror. This records the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster nearly three weeks ago CON 40% (+1): LAB 30% (-3): LD 19% (+2)

Looking at previous surveys from the firm on UKPollingreport these are the worst figures for Labour that we have ever seen. In February there was a 9% margin but Populus have never reported a double digit deficit before.

The firm’s past vote weighting and certainty to vote formulas are slightly more favourable to Labour than the main phone pollster, ICM which has also been finding big Labour deficits.

What is clear is that the internal bickering within Labour about the abolition of the 10% tax band does not suggest a united party - and all the evidence is that lack of unity gets punished in the polls.

Unlike the non-BPC listed MRUK whose London poll featured in the previous thread, Populus operates past vote weighting to ensure a politically balanced sample and also weights on the likelihood that respondents will actually vote.

This latest polling will underpin the recent trend on the betting markets towards support for the Tories winning the next election with an overall majority. My guess is that the spread markets on commons seats will see a further move against Labour.

Mike Smithson