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BBC Projected National Shares are Con 44, Lib Dem 25, Lab 24

PB - the place to be on election night

Double Carpet

Please help ease server pressure by using this thread to post comments as results come in.

Double Carpet

Please help ease server pressure by using this new thread to post comments as results come in for the local elections.

Double Carpet

There has been an attempt to impersonate me and others on the previous thread.

I am not aware of any exit polls tonight.

Automated content moderation is now on - if you have not had a comment approved here before or if your details have changed then it will get held up in the spam trap.

This was all the work of one person who was trying to influence the betting markets.

Mike Smithson

Was the postal vote battle the real decider?

This table appears in the Evening Standard tonight and shows the number of postal votes issue in all but three of London’s boroughs.

The total is 559,892 and I’ve just been doing some quick calculations to compare the number with a selection of the number of votes cast four years ago. For comparison I took the total first preferences from 2004 for Norris and Livingstone and then expressed this data as a percentage.

In more than half the boroughs the proportion of postal votes issued compared with the Livingstone-Norris total in 2004 was over 50%. In one borough, Hackney it was only a few hundred short of 100% though that is probably due to the all postal vote election there in the last borough contests.

Next in line came Sutton with 75% then Tower Hamlets and Southwark both on 65%. Newham was 64% with Islington on 61%. The other boroughs above 50% were Bexley, Camden, Greenwich, Havering, Kingston, Lambeth, Lewisham, Richmond, Waltham Forest and Wandsworth.

Remember this is not the proportion of the electorate but from the total of Tory and Labour votes in the Mayoral race in 2004.

Voting continues until 10pm and it will be early evening tomorrow before we get the result.

Dealing with tonight’s traffic: The site will shortly go into election night slimmed down mode to limit the demands on the server. Only the two most recent posts will appear though you can click back to get earlier ones. Continuation threads will start at regular intervals. Please switch to the new thread as soon as that happens.

Mike Smithson

The Evening Standard’s final YouGov poll of the mayoral campaign has just been published and the figures are exactly as was reported here at 9.27 pm last night.

On first preferences it is BORIS 43%: KEN 36%: PADDICK 13%. After the redistribution of second preferences it splits BORIS 53%: KEN 47%

From the poll detail it appears that there has been a hardening up of support by party allegiance. Two days ago 87% of those who have told the firm that they are Tories said they were backing Boris - today’s numbers have that at 94%. It’s the same with Labour supporters where there had been an increase in support for Ken. He’s now getting 76% of those who have identified themselves to the firm as Labour backers.

The detailed data shows that Boris is retaining the support of 84% of those who have told the firm that they are Tories while Ken is now getting 63% of those who have identified themselves to the firm as Labour backers. The Lib Dem “identifiers” split almost three ways between the leading candidates.

The poll data also shows that Boris is picking up just about two three voters from the 55+ age group for every one two to Ken. This is broadly in line with most of the recent polls and is significant because more than any other segment of the population older people turn out to vote.

My apologies for getting this wrong in the first version of the article - I was reading the lines for Westminster voting intention and not today’s ballot.

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Mike Smithson