Archive for the 'General' Category
What’s behind this horror? Friday, July 22nd, 2011
Why aren’t the Greens doing better?
Monday, June 27th, 2011
Shouldn’t they be benefiting more from the big boys’ unpopularity?
This ought to be a good time for the minor parties. The government contains two of the three main parties but still consistently registers approval ratings in the minus twenties. Labour is led by someone in whom the public appears to have little confidence, yet is rated higher than his main shadow cabinet colleagues. The government is making cuts across large parts of the public sector but has increasingly appeared vulnerable to well-focussed pressure and conducted several high profile U-turns.
The last time the three main parties were simultaneously unpopular was during the expenses crisis, which tarnished the entire political establishment. That took place around the time of the 2009 European elections and the minor parties did extremely well: UKIP finished second, the BNP won their first seats and the Greens polled over 1.2m votes, representing an 8.6% share.
Of all the minor parties who might benefit from the Lib Dems’ loss of support since they entered government, one might expect the Greens to gain most, in England at least. Yet the most recent polls of the four companies to have conducted surveys in the last two weeks show them at no more than 3%. That is higher than the 1% they received at the general election but then they only fought half the seats unlike at the Europeans where all voters had them as an option.
In fact, the four surveys show that for each 2010 Lib Dem vote that’s gone Green, roughly two have gone Conservative and about six to Labour. These former Lib Dem votes are likely to be predominantly to the left of centre and contain a sizable number of tactical and protest votes. Considering Labour’s ambivalent attitude to the government’s cuts, one might reasonably expect the Greens to have grabbed a bigger share given Caroline Lucas’ much less nuanced opposition.
The evidence from the local elections this year is mixed. The Greens did pick up a net 14 seats but ten of these were in Brighton alone. However, as they’ll have started from very low bases in many areas, seat totals aren’t particularly meaningful. The data from my own area (Bradford) suggests that there was quite a substantial swing from the Lib Dems to the Greens both in wards where neither works and in ones where they do, and across all types of ward in a very diverse district. I’ve no reason to assume that’s not typical of the country as a whole but equally no evidence to back up that it is.
Unfortunately, we’ve barely any equivalent data at the national level. Of the four GB by-elections called since the general election, the Greens have only contested one (Oldham East & Saddleworth) and that was untypical even by the standards of by-elections.
The most likely explanation is that they’ve been forgotten about. Despite winning their first seat in parliament last year, they’ve received very little coverage in recent months and so have been able to make little traction out of the unpopularity of the parties of government. That is justified – a party with such a small electoral base doesn’t deserve much airtime – but does tend to serve to entrench the establishment in place. Less likely is their far-left stance. Apart from most voters not knowing about it, minor parties don’t need to worry about the majority who will never agree with them and concentrate on the few who might.
On thing that their failure to break through does do is take some of the heat of Cameron, Clegg and Miliband – the latter two especially. There’s been a spate of elections overseas recently in which long-established parties have crashed spectacularly, often with new entrants doing well into the bargain. As long as Britain’s voters are switching between Conservative, Lib Dem and Labour, they and their parties will be in their comfort zone.
David Herdson
Shouldn’t they be benefiting more from the big boys’ unpopularity?
This ought to be a good time for the minor parties. The government contains two of the three main parties but still consistently registers approval ratings in the minus twenties. Labour is led by someone in whom the public appears to have little confidence, yet is rated higher than his main shadow cabinet colleagues. The government is making cuts across large parts of the public sector but has increasingly appeared vulnerable to well-focussed pressure and conducted several high profile U-turns.
The last time the three main parties were simultaneously unpopular was during the expenses crisis, which tarnished the entire political establishment. That took place around the time of the 2009 European elections and the minor parties did extremely well: UKIP finished second, the BNP won their first seats and the Greens polled over 1.2m votes, representing an 8.6% share.
Of all the minor parties who might benefit from the Lib Dems’ loss of support since they entered government, one might expect the Greens to gain most, in England at least. Yet the most recent polls of the four companies to have conducted surveys in the last two weeks show them at no more than 3%. That is higher than the 1% they received at the general election but then they only fought half the seats unlike at the Europeans where all voters had them as an option.
In fact, the four surveys show that for each 2010 Lib Dem vote that’s gone Green, roughly two have gone Conservative and about six to Labour. These former Lib Dem votes are likely to be predominantly to the left of centre and contain a sizable number of tactical and protest votes. Considering Labour’s ambivalent attitude to the government’s cuts, one might reasonably expect the Greens to have grabbed a bigger share given Caroline Lucas’ much less nuanced opposition.
The evidence from the local elections this year is mixed. The Greens did pick up a net 14 seats but ten of these were in Brighton alone. However, as they’ll have started from very low bases in many areas, seat totals aren’t particularly meaningful. The data from my own area (Bradford) suggests that there was quite a substantial swing from the Lib Dems to the Greens both in wards where neither works and in ones where they do, and across all types of ward in a very diverse district. I’ve no reason to assume that’s not typical of the country as a whole but equally no evidence to back up that it is.
Unfortunately, we’ve barely any equivalent data at the national level. Of the four GB by-elections called since the general election, the Greens have only contested one (Oldham East & Saddleworth) and that was untypical even by the standards of by-elections.
The most likely explanation is that they’ve been forgotten about. Despite winning their first seat in parliament last year, they’ve received very little coverage in recent months and so have been able to make little traction out of the unpopularity of the parties of government. That is justified – a party with such a small electoral base doesn’t deserve much airtime – but does tend to serve to entrench the establishment in place. Less likely is their far-left stance. Apart from most voters not knowing about it, minor parties don’t need to worry about the majority who will never agree with them and concentrate on the few who might.
On thing that their failure to break through does do is take some of the heat of Cameron, Clegg and Miliband – the latter two especially. There’s been a spate of elections overseas recently in which long-established parties have crashed spectacularly, often with new entrants doing well into the bargain. As long as Britain’s voters are switching between Conservative, Lib Dem and Labour, they and their parties will be in their comfort zone.
David Herdson
Is this good news for “Huhne out next” backers?
Sunday, June 26th, 2011
Press Association via Yahoo News
Police seek possession of speeding tape
As trailed by Guido, the Sunday Times is reporting that it has been ordered by a judge to hand over to Essex Police a recording of Huhne and ex-wife Vicky Pryce discussing the speeding allegations – although the paper is said to be considering an appeal.
If the police manage to obtain the tape, this could bring matters much further forward – will the tape bring new material to light? Might there now be sufficient evidence for a prosecution to be brought, which would be bad news for the Coalition – or will the police decide that the case should be dropped?
It’s been quieter for Huhne recently in the “next to leave” market, with Ken Clarke and Andrew Lansley in the spotlight, but this will put the focus right back on him – tonight he’s the firm favourite at 5/4 to be out of the Cabinet next, with Lansley at 5/1 and Clarke at 6.
Elsewhere in the Sundays, there’s perhaps surprisingly little discussion of Ed Miliband’s Wrexham speech, which may tell its own story (or else that it came too late for columnists to change their pieces). In the Telegraph, Tim Montgomerie argues that the Conservative 2010 intake is reshaping the party for the better, while the paper also reports ministers’ plans for a new crackdown on unions.
In the Independent, there’s an interview with Jon Cruddas, and a report that Cameron is pinning his hopes on a majority at the next election by going ahead with the High Speed rail project, which presumably will ease the coalition’s lack of “friends in the North” highlighted by Andrew Rawnsley.
Finally, the latest You Gov poll is out – no details on the site yet, but topline numbers are Lab 43 Con 36 LD 9, giving Labour its second best lead for a month.
Double Carpet
(Twitter: @electiongame)
In the 2011 Election Game season, the Inverclyde game is available here – entries close 7pm Wednesday.
Press Association via Yahoo News
Police seek possession of speeding tape
As trailed by Guido, the Sunday Times is reporting that it has been ordered by a judge to hand over to Essex Police a recording of Huhne and ex-wife Vicky Pryce discussing the speeding allegations – although the paper is said to be considering an appeal.
If the police manage to obtain the tape, this could bring matters much further forward – will the tape bring new material to light? Might there now be sufficient evidence for a prosecution to be brought, which would be bad news for the Coalition – or will the police decide that the case should be dropped?
It’s been quieter for Huhne recently in the “next to leave” market, with Ken Clarke and Andrew Lansley in the spotlight, but this will put the focus right back on him – tonight he’s the firm favourite at 5/4 to be out of the Cabinet next, with Lansley at 5/1 and Clarke at 6.
Elsewhere in the Sundays, there’s perhaps surprisingly little discussion of Ed Miliband’s Wrexham speech, which may tell its own story (or else that it came too late for columnists to change their pieces). In the Telegraph, Tim Montgomerie argues that the Conservative 2010 intake is reshaping the party for the better, while the paper also reports ministers’ plans for a new crackdown on unions.
In the Independent, there’s an interview with Jon Cruddas, and a report that Cameron is pinning his hopes on a majority at the next election by going ahead with the High Speed rail project, which presumably will ease the coalition’s lack of “friends in the North” highlighted by Andrew Rawnsley.
Finally, the latest You Gov poll is out – no details on the site yet, but topline numbers are Lab 43 Con 36 LD 9, giving Labour its second best lead for a month.
Double Carpet
(Twitter: @electiongame)
In the 2011 Election Game season, the Inverclyde game is available here – entries close 7pm Wednesday.
What are the books we should be reading?
Saturday, June 11th, 2011
What are your holiday recommendations?
Just two weeks from today at about this time we’ll be arriving at our holiday apartment over-looking the Gironde not too far from Bordeaux.
I’m looking forward to this enormously if only because it will provide the opportunity to switch off totally from PB for the first time for seven years and do something I never seem to get the chance to do normally – read some books.
High up on my list is the Dominic Sandbrook account of the 1970-1974 period ‘State of Emergency’. The three elections then were the turning point in post-war politics when so much happened that continues to the current scene. My renewed interest was sparked off by the recent TV documentary on Heath and Wilson.
On the fiction side I’ve just discovered Charles Cunning who has a much acclaimed spy novel ‘The Trinity Six’.
But what are your choices?
Mike Smithson
What are your holiday recommendations?
Just two weeks from today at about this time we’ll be arriving at our holiday apartment over-looking the Gironde not too far from Bordeaux.
I’m looking forward to this enormously if only because it will provide the opportunity to switch off totally from PB for the first time for seven years and do something I never seem to get the chance to do normally – read some books.
High up on my list is the Dominic Sandbrook account of the 1970-1974 period ‘State of Emergency’. The three elections then were the turning point in post-war politics when so much happened that continues to the current scene. My renewed interest was sparked off by the recent TV documentary on Heath and Wilson.
On the fiction side I’ve just discovered Charles Cunning who has a much acclaimed spy novel ‘The Trinity Six’.
But what are your choices?