politicalbetting.com

Could the revised tax plan stem the Tory surge?

The chart shows the changes in the Labour betting price for Crewe and Nantwich, expressed as an implied probability, during a day which has seen the government trying to get out of the hole it has dug itself into over the 10% tax rate.

Clearly Brown and his team were thinking of next week’s election when they decided to make the statement to try to shoot this particular fox.

The only problem is that it does not smack of firm government if the party in power keeps on changing tack all the time - and there’s the question of increasing overall government borrowing to pay for the plan.

As I have repeatedly argued C&N is about turnout. Will Labour voters feel motivated enough to go to the polls. This might help them along a little bit.

Mike Smithson

Is this the most likely “end-game” scenario?

Whenever the question of the manner of Gordon’s eventual departure is discussed three different possibilities are raised: that he’ll go after leading Labour to an inglorious defeat at the hands of David Cameron; that he’ll be ousted in a bloody coup; or that he will, like other Prime Ministers before him, stand down on health grounds.

Only a few have suggested that he might come to recognise that his leadership is undermining his party against the dreaded Tories and that he will just fall on his sword. The very idea of this is so alien to the images that Brown projects that the notion just gets swept aside.

I think that this might be wrong. For the one enduring quality about Gordon is that he is totally wedded to the Labour movement and he is fully versed in its history. He will be only too aware of the way that his short leadership might be portrayed. To make the ultimate sacrifice for the sake of the movement by voluntarily giving up the post he had strived for most of his adult life might appear better than hanging on until the end.

This is a massive pill to swallow and Gordon takes a long time making the big decisions. But if all the evidence is pointing one way he could, I believe, do it.

The Labour blogger, Paul Linford, in an excellent post at the weekend on what happens next wrote“..I think it entirely plausible that Mr Brown will fall on his own sword. The one thing he has always been is a party man”.

There are several betting markets - I’m in big on the line up of party leaders at the next election where I got an effective 5/1 on Cameron being the only one from last July who would still be there. It’s now tightened to 1.62/1.

Mike Smithson

Are Labour’s chances as bad as the media is suggesting?

This weekend hundreds and maybe thousands of activists from the main parties will be heading to Crewe and Nantwich for a big couple of days of campaigning ahead of the critical by election a week on Thursday.

The weather’s good, the constituency’s road and rail links are excellent and, most of all, Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems have each got something to prove in this key test of public opinion during a very difficult time for the government.

Already several of those who have been flocking to the south Cheshire towns have been giving us their impressions on the PB comments threads. If you are amongst the campaigners please let us know so we can build up a picture of what is happening on the ground.

On the face of it this should be an easy one for Cameron’s Conservatives. Last week’s local election, the London outcome and the latest YouGov poll all point to support shedding away from the governing party throughout the country. If it’s happening nationally then surely the same must be being experienced in C&N?

The most important factor for a party defending is the extent to which it can get its support out and the signs nationally suggest that this might be very hard for Labour. Even in Sedgefield last July at the start of Gordon Brown’s media honeymoon the Labour candidate saw his party’s vote drop by 14%. Labour supporters have bad record of turning out in elections when the government of the country is not at stake.

Even when they are starting from third place, like here, the Lib Dems always have the potential to pull off a shock. Could they start appealing to Labour supporters that the only way of stopping a Tory victory is by switching to them?

So even if you have never posted here before please share with us your experiences. Let’s see if we can get a good picture of what is going on. Many thanks.

Latest by election betting.

Mike Smithson

Has the Sun switched from MORI following the Mayoral outcome?

A key thing that polling does, apart from to give some idea about the outcome of a future general election, is to help create the environment in which the political process operates. As we have seen so often the pressure on party leaders can be driven by poor polling numbers.

For there’s little doubt that shocking polls for Labour, like the one in this morning’s Sun, can affect the whole way that contemporary politics is perceived and one set of bad numbers can lead to another.

But judging from the Sun’s report of its poll this morning it looks as though the top-selling tabloid newspaper might have switched to YouGov. The report notes that the paper “…chose YouGov after they accurately predicted the results of last week’s London Mayoral election.”

For the last couple of years or so the polls the paper has carried out, almost on a monthly basis, have been by MORI. Now if today’s development means that future Sun surveys will be by YouGov then there could be a pattern of at least three a month from the online pollster. YouGov, of course, already does regular surveys for the Daily Telegraph and the Sunday Times.

I’m not sure whether this is a good thing - different approaches by different firms can give us a clearer picture and help us to understand better what is going on.

More YouGov polls could also affect the betting - particularly the spread markets on the number of seats that the main parties will get at the next general election. Market movements tend to be drive by the latest polling numbers and, not unexpectedly, the Tory spreads have moved upwards overnight.

The Conservative seat price on Spreadfair is now at 343-347 seats - the lower figure being the sell level and the higher one the buy level. Profits and losses in this form of betting are determined by working out the difference between the contract level and multiplying by your stake amount. So if you sold the Tories at 343 seats at £50 a seat and Cameron’s party ended with 373 seats then you would lose 30 times 50 = £1,500. On the other hand if they only got 323 seats you would win 20 times 50 = £1,000.

With this firm the prices are set by what other punters want to offer. The other spread firms fix the levels themselves and both of them have been down overnight. Expect a new price fix this morning.

Mike Smithson

Is this the woman who could turn Labour’s fortunes around?

I don’t claim to understand the intricacies of Labour party internal politics but after pondering over the past few days I have come up with a couple of names of people I believe could turn round voters views of the party and make the next general election less of the disaster than it looks at the moment.

What’s needed is a different style and a different tone and a leader who comes over as being authentic and likeable. Absolutely central is to have someone who can communicate and has a high emotional intelligence. So what about a woman?

I am becoming more impressed by Jackie Smith who was a good choice, going for kebabs from her local shop notwithstanding, for Home Secretay - a role that has swallowed up many of Labour’s big beasts - but I don’t she’s quite got it yet for the big job.

Harriet Harman was my eventual betting choice for the Deputy job last year when all the money was going on Alan Johnson. She did well as a stand-in for Gord at PMQs last month but her voice lets her down. She always sounds as though she is whining.

The leading Labour woman who stands head and shoulders above everybody is Tessa Jowell who got demoted by Gordon last year. Her performance on TV last after Labour’s disaster in the locals and as we awaited the London result was superb. There are few other politicians who could have coped so well and come over so effectively

I think David Cameron would find her a very tricky adversary. She would enjoy an amazing media honeymoon when, dare I suggest, calling an election could be on the cards.

Whether she would get it or even wants it I don’t know and she is regarded as too much of a Blairite for large parts of the movement. But I believe she has what it takes. If indeed Gordon was ousted or had to step down on health grounds then I can only think of only one other leading Labour politician who could equal her. His prospects will be discussed in a separate article and I will leave that and his identity dangling there.

Tessa is priced at 100/1 on the next leader market. I’ve put a fiver on.

Mike Smithson

Some depressing words for Labour supporters in Polly Toynbee’s Tuesday Guardian column this morning.

After having this to say about May 22nd “..for the Conservatives are no longer the stupid party. Watch them win the Crewe and Nantwich byelection, easy…” she goes on:-

“…It is Labour that has become the stupid party - dumb, directionless, depressing. That’s why the voters gave them that 24% sucker punch: it wasn’t about ideology, it was about basic political competence. As the Conservatives unfurl new policies for the next election, how can Labour oppose them? It’s a poser because Labour has no firm territory of its own to stand on. They can hardly castigate Tory “reforms” out-sourcing more of education and the NHS. Labour did that too. Or rebut Tory promises to be even tougher on crime, sentencing and filling up more prisons, because Labour did that too. Favouring business and the hyper-rich? Labour did it too. Ungenerous to the poor? Labour will trip over its 10p tax debacle. Housing? Labour built the least since the war. Europe? Labour has been as Eurosceptic as the Tories are likely to be. So the party risks being struck dumb on almost every Tory policy - left to whinge on the sidelines about small differences of detail…”

Mike Smithson