politicalbetting.com

Is this bad news for Ken?

After reading Stehert’s comment on the previous thread I’ve just watched the GMTV morning news when it looked as though the Labour Deputy Leader, Harriet Harman, was conceding defeat in London.

When pressed on the Mayoral race she said that she “did not expect the London result to be any different to the rest of the country.”

Certainly there’s been a lot of Tory celebrations and I was amazed that ConservativeHome was ready to call it for the party just after the polls closed last night.

We have not seen any hard numbers but the general impression is that there were signgicant increases in turnout in the out London Tory controlled boroughs.

Latest Mayoral betting is here.

Mike Smithson

The ramper/impersonator exposes a vulnerability

Those who were on the site at about 6.30pm last night would have followed the attempt of a ramper to influence the Ken and Boris betting prices by creating exchanges as though they were by regular posters here.

The “dialogue” started with him creating what purported to be a comment by me saying I had information about an exit poll saying things could be quite close. It then went to cover quite a few regular contributors and these looked like genuine posts. There was, of course, no exit poll.

Looking at the Ken and Boris prices during that period it did appear to lead to some laying of the Tory and betting on Ken with the result that the prices moved a bit. Some people commented last night that they had changed positions as a result of what was being said.

To stop this happening again the only posts that will be accepted for instant publication will be from those people that our server recognises as having contributed here before without problem. So the name and the email address must match up with previous posts.

If there is a discrepancy the post will be put into moderation to be approved/rejected when I get round to checking it. I will be giving Paul Maggs the facility to approve/reject such comments as well

Most contributors will find that they will not be affected by the change. If you are please be patient.

We cannot be operating 24/7 and there might be periods where posts by new contributors might be blocked for some time.

The important thing to remember is that one you have had a comment approved then you will be publish instantly provided you operate in a proper manner.

Mike Smithson

The Dunfermline by election: final price Labour 0.2/1 favourite

It’s very easy, especially on election days, to believe that there is some mystical quality about betting prices. If changes are taking place you assume someone knows something and that you should be following yourself.

Quite often price changes are based on very little and in the absence of a real reason for a move it’s usually wise to hold your nerve.

There was no better example of the markets being wrong-footed than the Dunfermline by election in February 2006. As the returning officer got to his feet punters decided that it must be Labour. The price tightened to 0.2/1 seconds later the Lib Dem victory was announced.

London mayoral betting is here.

Mike Smithson

Mike Smithson

But has YouGov got this one right?

The former political journalist and one of the founders of YouGov, Peter Kellner, was reported to be quipping to colleagues yesterday: “One thing is certain: by Friday night - either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”.

For of the four firms that have surveyed Londoners only his firm, the controversial online pollster YouGov, has consistently reported significant margins for the Tory contender. The other firms - ICM, MRUK and Ipsos-MORI - have either shown the candidates neck and next or else that Ken has had a small lead.

Overnight, as reported in the previous thread, I was given a tip-off from a source who has proved reliable in the past that today’s final YouGov poll would show a slight narrowing of the margin but with Boris having an ample margin. He had an 8% lead on first preferences reducing to 6% after second preferences has been allocated. The poll will be in today’s Evening Standard which should be available from about 11am.

The MORI polling firm has taken me to task for my much repeated view that first preference polling figures are more robust than the second preference ones. There are several elements here not least the complication of the ballot form itself where electors have to put their crosses in two columns - something that can cause confusion. Last time a largish group of voters left the second column blank or simply repeated their first choice selection there.

Another factor is that within polling samples the number of interviewees on whom second preference figures are calculated can be very small - a point that has been highlighted by the head of ICM, Nick Sparrow.

Betting activity has started to build up and will continue after the polling stations close at 10pm right until the official figures are announced at City Hall tomorrow evening.

Will there be an exit poll? Last time ITN commissioned MORI which reported a final Ken Margin of 8% against the 10% that actually happened - a very good performance. I’m not aware of any firm being hired this time but it is still possible.

These were the prices at 0430. If you are betting today please click on the panel or use the links from here. This provides a revenue source that helps keep PB going.

Mike Smithson

The 11/8 on more than 43% seems like value bet

As can probably be gathered from the content of recent posts I am quite long on Boris. My reading of the polls it that he stands a very good chance of winning on Friday and I’ve been betting accordingly.

The only circumstance I can foresee of him not making it is if there is a very high turnout. One senior Labour spinner told me yesterday that he thought Ken would romp home if it got to the 50% level. I think there is something in that.

So to part cover my Boris win bets I’ve been betting on a high turnout. You can get 11/8 with William Hill that it will be 43% or more which seems like good value.

Last time the turnout was just under 37% but that race was never really seen as being close and was certainly not getting the media attention that we have seen this time.

One factor that could impact on turnout levels are the registered voter numbers. Last night’s story about the high level of people who are not on the roll could actually boost the proportion - which will, of course, be the number of votes cast divided by the total number who are registered.

So if you are long on Boris give Billy Hill a call.

The joy of the position is that both bets could come up.

UPDATE: Ipsos-MORI have produced a fascinating presentation on the impact of turnout on the final result. Their main conclusion based on the data from their final poll is that 40% is the critical level. Below that it is Boris - above Ken.

Mike Smithson