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There’s a piece by me on the Guardian’s Comment is Free about the polling and betting on the mayoral election.

Mike Smithson

Why did the phone pollsters over-state Labour?

Following last nights results the pollster Ipsos-MORI has announced that it will be carrying out a review of its approach and the phone firms generally asking “why empirically, they appear to have tended to over-estimate the Labour share of the vote”.

An issue for the firm, of course, was that its final poll was completed a week before the election and a lot can happen in the final few days. That’s certainly true but there was a disparity between its figures and those of the online pollster, YouGov from February onwards when details of the first MORI survey were made public.

The results from MORI, MRUK and ICM have been far better than previous phone polls ahead of the 2000 and 2004 races. The big difference this time is that the contest was far closer.

To my mind the difference between completing an on-line questionnaire and responding to an unsolicited randomised phone call is that with the former you decide when you want to respond. The nature of the phone survey is that you have less control of the timing and this, I would suggest, might lead to different sorts of people taking part.

The internet responder is being proactive while a telephone responder is passive.

This factor has become increasingly important as in this online age we use the internet for so much more. The user is in the driving seat so much more of the time.

In comment on UK Polling Report Ben Page of MORI writes: “…we will be reviewing our political polling methodology to look at lessons learned and publishing our conclusions and any changes we make in a few months’ time. In my opinion that’s the best thing to do. There is nothing to be gained from just blaming a result that looks wrong on a late swing, the right thing to do is to look in detail at the figures, try and work out what if anything did go wrong, and see how it can be put right.”

We will follow this with interest.

Mike Smithson

But has YouGov got this one right?

The former political journalist and one of the founders of YouGov, Peter Kellner, was reported to be quipping to colleagues yesterday: “One thing is certain: by Friday night - either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”.

For of the four firms that have surveyed Londoners only his firm, the controversial online pollster YouGov, has consistently reported significant margins for the Tory contender. The other firms - ICM, MRUK and Ipsos-MORI - have either shown the candidates neck and next or else that Ken has had a small lead.

Overnight, as reported in the previous thread, I was given a tip-off from a source who has proved reliable in the past that today’s final YouGov poll would show a slight narrowing of the margin but with Boris having an ample margin. He had an 8% lead on first preferences reducing to 6% after second preferences has been allocated. The poll will be in today’s Evening Standard which should be available from about 11am.

The MORI polling firm has taken me to task for my much repeated view that first preference polling figures are more robust than the second preference ones. There are several elements here not least the complication of the ballot form itself where electors have to put their crosses in two columns - something that can cause confusion. Last time a largish group of voters left the second column blank or simply repeated their first choice selection there.

Another factor is that within polling samples the number of interviewees on whom second preference figures are calculated can be very small - a point that has been highlighted by the head of ICM, Nick Sparrow.

Betting activity has started to build up and will continue after the polling stations close at 10pm right until the official figures are announced at City Hall tomorrow evening.

Will there be an exit poll? Last time ITN commissioned MORI which reported a final Ken Margin of 8% against the 10% that actually happened - a very good performance. I’m not aware of any firm being hired this time but it is still possible.

These were the prices at 0430. If you are betting today please click on the panel or use the links from here. This provides a revenue source that helps keep PB going.

Mike Smithson

Will playing the victim card galvanise the activists?

Reproduced above is part of a press release issued this morning by Team Ken in what will probably be the last big move of the campaign. It consists of an attack on the planned YouGov poll that will be published tomorrow as well as the more detailed case of the complaint against the pollster that has been made to the Market Research Society.

The objectives appear to be to further smear YouGov, to discredit the latest polling, to further present Ken as the victim of a campaign by the Evening Standard - all this to reinforce the activists to work harder over the next 36 hours

This is about getting his core vote out - something that Ken and Labour have always found to be more challenging than the Tories.

The final messages on the final day of a campaign can have an impact and this one looks quite smart.

The complaint is about politics and not the science of polling. Every single phone poll that’s ever been held during London mayoral campaigns has massively over-estimated Ken’s vote we didn’t hear complaints from his team then. In 2004 even the online pollster YouGov, in its final poll in 2004, over-estimated Ken’s first preference lead.

Latest mayoral betting

Mike Smithson

Unlike 2000 and 2004 Tory supporters are sticking with their candidate

Every Tuesday for the last month or so YouGov have published the detailed data of their latest London mayoral poll. This fleshes out what’s already been made public and provides more information that can be helpful in forming a view of the race.

And what I have looked first for is the number highlighted above - what proportion of those who identifying themselves as Tories are supporting Boris Johnson. This could be critical because he is not going to win if he is not retaining the Tory vote.

At the 2000 and 2004 mayoral elections there was strong evidence that significant numbers of Tories switched to Ken in the mayoral ballot. If there was a hint that that was happening this time then Johnson could be in trouble.

Well the figure above confirms that Johnson is retaining 87% of the Tory vote - a proportion that has hardly moved since the campaign started. He is also picking up one fifth of those who have at sometime told YouGov that the party they identify with most is Labour.

The Tory vote is significant because traditionally it is more likely to turn out out. In my view Johnson is going to do it and current odds seem very attractive.

In the betting the money has continued to go on Johnson who is now at 1/2.

Mike Smithson

Massive poll leads yet still the nervousness

In the past week and a bit we’ve had surveys from all five firms that do national general election polls and all have reported the same trend - a big shift to the Conservatives. The ComRes 14% lead was the last to come and overnight produced figures that would convert into a near Tory landslide at a general election.

To recap these are the latest ratings from each of the firms:-

Yet just look at the Commons seat spread betting markets above. Even with the polls all saying the same thing punters are still not convinced that we might be heading for a David Cameron majority at the next election.

But could everything change after Thursday elections? Could a Tory win in London and big successes elsewhere transform the political mood? Could now be the moment to get your general election bets on?

What strikes me is that we are in completely uncharted territory. It is now nearly thirty years since the Tories were last threatening to unseat a Labour government and we have no real reference points. In spite of the ratings nobody quite believes that a change of government is possible but could we be nearing the tipping point?

One of the site’s regular contributors, Rod Crosby, always argues that changes of government have never happened without in the preceding years the main opposition party winning seats off the governing party in Westminster by elections. I think that’s right probably right although MPs appear younger and healthier these days and there have not been as many opportunities.

But the next big development in domestic politics will be Labour’s defence of Crewe and Nantwich following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody. We have not got a date yet but this contest provides the ideal platform for the Tories to capitalise on their likely progress this Thursday.

So for those who play the spread betting commons seat markets now might be the moment to move. Could the price panel above be the last occasion when we see the Tory BUY level being lower than the threshold for an overall majority?

Mike Smithson