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Press pundits précised

The main British political stories today centre, as usual, on the election of the next Conservative leader. The Sunday Telegraph reports that its poll of constituency chairmen showed a 44% vote against the proposed change to the party’s constitution which would give MPs the final say on the leadership. With the proposal requiring a two-thirds majority at the National Convention on 27th September, this would be enough to block it. The Sunday Times speculates that the compromise option of an electoral college may be explored.

The Observer has polled Tory MPs and found that none of those elected for the first time in May are prepared to tell the paper they back Kenneth Clarke – an anonymous member of this cohort is quoted as saying that the ex-Chancellor’s previous support for the single currency is still a barrier. An article in the business section of the Independent on Sunday points out that Clarke’s anti-euro article is a “strategic retreat” rather than a U-turn.

The Sunday Times’s poll of 100 Conservative MPs has David Davis leading, followed by Liam Fox and David Cameron, with Clarke in fourth. The same article quoted Alan Duncan, who has withdrawn from the contest, calling for Cameron to abandon his challenge and accept a Davis–Clarke finale. The betting markets have made the same judgement, with Clarke (3.3/1) well ahead of Cameron (6.8/1) – but if The Sunday Times’s poll is correct, Clarke’s odds have come in far too short.

Scotland on Sunday reports on two developments which could harm Labour’s chances in the by-election for the Glasgow Cathcart seat in the Scottish Parliament. Former Labour incumbent Mike Watson (who pleaded guilty on Thursday to a charge of wilful fireraising) is reported to have claimed £21,000 in expenses for attending the House of Lords during a period in which he made only two speeches in the upper house. And in the fight for the Labour nomination in the by-election, there are moves to back Charan Gill, a multimillionaire friend of First Minister Jack McConnell – but not a Cathcart resident or even a Labour party member.

Switching to Cabinet politics, The Sunday Times reports on a warming of relations between Gordon Brown and David Blunkett. With Brown’s endorsement thought to be important in the eventual choice of a Labour deputy leader, this could justify Blunkett’s favourite status at 7/2. The same paper has more on the recent conflicts between Tony Blair and Home Secretary Charles Clarke – reportedly seen by the Prime Minister as excessively liberal. The paper reports Blair forcing Clarke to fund the projects of “anti-yob tsar” Louise Casey. Given Casey’s previous comments about “decking” Downing Street staffers, perhaps it is unfair to accuse Blair of ignoring the possibility of rehabilitation.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.

New, moving and interesting markets this week

The biggest story in British politics over the last few days has been the entry of Kenneth Clarke into the Conservative leadership election. Money in the betting markets has piled on the former Chancellor and pushed him into the second favourite position at 3.1/1, overtaking Shadow Education Secretary David Cameron (6.8/1) but continuing to trail the favourite, Shadow Home Secretary David Davis (0.92/1). All other contenders have slipped to 39/1 and longer.

On other UK markets there has been little movement. Gordon Brown is still by far the favourite to succeed Tony Blair as Labour leader, at odds of 0.28/1. Spreadfair’s market on the length of Blair’s third term is at 118-129 weeks, forecasting the Prime Minister to depart between August and October 2007.

In New Zealand, Labour is still favourite to form a government after the 17th September general election; but a move in the polls towards the opposition National Party has brought the odds closer together. You can now get 0.55/1 Labour, 1.54/1 National.

In Germany, where voters will be electing the new Bundestag on 18th September, eyes will be turning to Sunday’s televised debate between the Social Democrat Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Christian Democrat leader Angela Merkel. The market on the largest party has the CDU–CSU as the almost certain winner. A more interesting market is Spreadfair’s on vote share, which has picked up liquidity and now has the CDU–CSU on 40.5-44.0% with the SPD on 28.5-32.0%. This week’s newcomer to the markets you can bet in is one on which parties will form the governing coalition after the election. The CDU–CSU and the Free Democrats, who between them are polling around 49%, are the 8/13 favourites, with a “grand coalition” between the CDU–CSU and SPD next up at 6/5. A coalition between the SPD, Greens and the left-wing Linkspartei is seen as unlikely at 12/1. Together these parties are not far behind the CDU–CSU and FDP in the polls; the odds reflect the unlikeliness of them agreeing a deal, with one wing of the Linkspartei being made up of SPD defectors, led by the former SPD chairman and Finance Minister, Oskar Lafontaine.

For those who prefer to play for pride rather than money, remember our prediction competition is still open till midnight tonight.

If you are opening a Spreadfair account, it would be appreciated if you followed the link in this article or on the right-hand sidebar. This pays politicalbetting.com a small commission which goes towards the costs of running the site. Many thanks.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.

Weekend words weighed

The Conservative leadership election gets heavy coverage in today’s papers. The Sunday Times reminds readers that the left-leaning former minister Tim Yeo was still in the race, but has now dropped out to back Kenneth Clarke. Clarke is interviewed in the paper and, in a sentence that both his supporters and opponents are likely to enjoy, is quoted as saying: “I find it almost comic the number of people who tell me they would vote Tory if I were leader.” The Observer repeats another quote from that interview – “The Lib Dems are terrified of me” – and also predicts that Clarke will speak out during the campaign on his opposition to the Iraq war.

The once vaunted idea of a Clarke–Cameron “dream ticket” now seems dead, and the Sunday Telegraph has both the former Chancellor and the Shadow Education Secretary saying so. Pro-Clarke sources say that “Ken can win, with or without David Cameron … Something drastic would have to happen to stop him from running now. He is fit, robust and raring to go.” Those outside his inner circle would probably score him two out of three on that. A separate and more comprehensive interview with Cameron, which quotes him as rejecting a pact with Clarke (“I don’t believe that the right way of going about this is talking about doing deals.”) and, on the policy front, calling for compulsory community service for school-leavers. Melissa Kite’s article also describes a “thawing of relations” between Cameron and David Davis.

The Independent on Sunday has a short article making the point that Clarke is likely to run whether or not the system for electing the leader is changed.

The betting markets have upgraded Clarke’s chances to a 6/1 shot, while Davis is at 0.75/1 and Cameron at 4.2/1.

The main coverage of foreign politics in the British papers today is on the German general election, to be held on 18th September. The Observer covers the election and reports that 48% of Germans remain undecided on how to vote. In The Sunday Times’s long profile of CDU leader Angela Merkel [split across two web pages], the paper sees the 4th September TV debate between Merkel and Chancellor Gerhard Schröder as key, and points out that the contrast between Schröder’s assurance with the media and Merkel’s more hesitant delivery could benefit either one of them.

The betting on Germany remains quiet, with Merkel still regarded as nearly certain to become Chancellor after the election.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.

New, moving and interesting markets this week

In last week’s markets update, we commented that the fixed odds betting on the German general election predicted that Angela Merkel was almost certain to become Chancellor after the 18th September election (which has now been formally authorised by the Constitutional Court). This is still the case, with Merkel 1/16 to become Chancellor, and the CDU–CSU 1/33 to be the largest party in the Bundestag. However, Cantor Spreadfair has added interest by creating a spread betting market on the parties’ vote shares. The market is very new and no bids or offers have yet been posted – Spreadfair is a betting exchange on which your bet is against another punter. A guide to the likely prices is the latest polls collated on the Umfragen site. These have the CDU–CSU on around 42%, the SPD about 28%, with the Greens and FDP both around 8%. Though these numbers have been almost rock steady for the last week, it’s hard to see there being no movement at all between now and the election; and knowledgeable watchers of German politics may have a view on which parties are over- and underestimated by opinion pollsters.

Spreadfair has also indicated that a spread market on the 11th September general election in Japan will be coming very soon.

Another new market is Paddy Power’s on the 2007 French presidential election. The 5/4 favourite is Minister of the Interior Nicolas Sarkozy of the Gaullist UMP party. Second favourite at 7/2 is the Socialist François Hollande. With this market, your money is tied up for the two years until the election – during which time there are likely to be plenty of twists and turns in the story. Gamblers interested in this election would probably prefer to have a betting exchange to trade in and out of positions.

On Thursday we saw that the betting odds on the New Zealand general election were moving towards Labour. This movement has continued on Centrebet, with Labour now at 7/25 and National at 9/4. Betfair has better odds if you are backing Labour, but not as good if your money is going on National.

Friday’s article covered the Tradesports markets on the US party nominations for the 2008 Presidential elections. The Democratic favourite, still by a long way, is Hillary Clinton at 42.9% (1.33/1). On the Republican side, the race is much closer, with George Allen at 20.2% (3.95/1), John McCain at 18.0% (4.56/1) and Rudy Giuliani at 14.9% (5.71/1). Better value might be found looking further down the list for state governors, whose record in getting to the White House over the last 30 years is better than that of Senators or mayors.

Returning home to the UK, the market attracting most interest is on the Conservative leadership. The clear favourite is still Shadow Home Secretary David Davis at 0.73/1. After former Chancellor Kenneth Clarke’s statement in which he described the euro as a failure – so far, his odds have shortened slightly to 7.8/1. Shadow Education Secretary David Cameron remains second-placed at 4.3/1.

A new market, which appeared online just after Tuesday’s article here, is on the next Labour deputy leader. Paddy Power gives the edge here to David Blunkett (7/2), followed by Jack Straw (4/1) and Charles Clarke (9/2). All three ministers are regarded as Blairites; an alternative betting strategy would be to look for candidates who could balance a Gordon Brown-led ticket in a different way – though perhaps not as “different” as 100/1 outsider George Galloway.

If you are opening a Spreadfair account, it would be appreciated if you followed the link in this article or on the right-hand sidebar. This pays politicalbetting.com a small commission which goes towards the costs of running the site. Many thanks.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.

Sunday’s stories sifted

As usual for August, it’s a quiet weekend for political news, but a few pieces in today’s papers will interest political gamblers.

The Conservative leadership has been a reliable source of interest since May, and continues to provide stories. The talk at the moment is of whether Kenneth Clarke and David Cameron can present a united front in a “dream ticket”. The Sunday Times reports that Lord Heseltine is backing a bid led by Clarke with Cameron as his deputy. However, with press coverage on Friday and Saturday reporting that Clarke supporters such as Tony Baldry moving to Cameron’s camp, there must be a question on whether Heseltine is really in touch with the situation in the parliamentary party. The Observer reports that Clarke would give up his business interests in companies such as British American Tobacco if he became leader, but not during a leadership contest. This will prompt some to wonder whether he really believes he can win. The article also mentions scepticism over whether Cameron’s supporters would back a “dream ticket”. Betting odds are 4.3/1 Cameron, 9/1 Clarke, with David Davis still favourite at 0.71/1.

The Observer also reports that Mo Mowlam regarded Gordon Brown as unfit to be Prime Minister. One might speculate on how many other Labour figures privately feel this, but with no clear challenger Brown remains the strong favourite to succeed to the Labour leadership, at 0.28/1.

Scotland on Sunday – the Sunday edition of the Scotsman, which has excellent coverage of UK-wide as well as Scottish politics – reports on the selection of a Labour candidate to fight the by-election in Livingston. Five contenders are mentioned; with all of them having local connections, Labour seems to be doing the right thing to avoid a serious challenge from the SNP or Liberal Democrats. No betting markets seem to be open on the by-election result yet.

Finally, looking overseas, the Washington Post reports that Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, once seen as a leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, is spending more time than expected with his Tennessee constituents. The paper speculates that he will abandon his White House ambitions and run for re-election to his Senate seat in 2006 after all. Frist, as a respected Senator but very poor media performer, would probably find a happier outcome this way. The Tradesports exchange rates Frist as an 8% chance (odds of 11.5/1) for the presidential nomination, with no odds on the Tennessee Senate race yet.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.

New, moving and interesting markets this week

We haven’t seen too much dramatic action in the betting on British political events this week, so let’s take a weekend look further afield.

Though when we mention Helen Clark on this site, we tend to be referring to the former MP for Peterborough, there is more betting interest in her antipodean namesake. New Zealand is less than a month from its general election, to be held on 17th September. Australian bookie Centrebet will accept bets in sterling, and has a tight book with odds of 9/20 on Clark’s Labour government, and 31/20 against Don Brash’s National opposition. Betfair also has a market, but there is not much liquidity yet and the odds on both sides are poorer.

Across the Tasman Sea, Centrebet also has a market on the next general election in Australia. With the election likely to take place in 2007, this is probably one for the enthusiasts at this stage. However you can get odds of 11/20 on the Liberal/National Coalition and 13/10 against Labor. Prices are also available on the Liberal leader at the election. Current PM John “call me mate” Howard is the favourite at 33/50 to fight his sixth general election. (He lost his first election, and the party leadership, in 1987, only to make a subsequent comeback which must be a source of enduring hope to William Hague.)

The Irish-based Tradesports exchange focuses on US sports and events and includes a good range of political markets. For the 2008 presidental nominations, Hillary Clinton is the hot Democratic favourite at a probability of 43% (odds of 1.33/1). Among the Republicans, the field are closer together, but the marginal favourite is Hillary’s recent Arctic travelling companion, John McCain, at an implied probability of 19.7% (odds of 4.08/1).

You can also back the Democrats to hold the New York Senate seat in November 2006 – in effect, Hillary to be re-elected – at a probability of 82% (odds 0.22/1). For an incumbent with strong statewide approval ratings in a Democratic state, this must be good value. Bear in mind though that your stake and return are in US dollars, so British gamblers are exposed to currency risk and bank charges.

In Germany, the centre-right remains ahead in the polls, with the CDU/CSU/FDP alliance, led by Angela Merkel, looking to have a good chance of winning a majority of the popular vote on 18th September. Even failing that, it is difficult to envisage the CDU not ending up the largest party. But with the best value available on a CDU win at a modest 6/100, punters would surely need quite some faith in the predictability of politics. Tradesports offers very slightly better value, but once again this comes with the complication of currency risk.

There are no markets yet on Japan’s 11th September election, which looks set to be closer than is usual there, with wide divisions opening in the governing Liberal Democratic party. The conventional bookies may not want to take the risk of offering odds on a subject they don’t know well, but a betting exchange would be able to offer the interested an opportunity to bet against one another.

I hope to cover some of these markets further in the next week, and comments from anyone with an interest in them would be much appreciated.

Newcomers are as welcome as regulars in our discussion section, and there is no need to register with the site – just click the Comments link below, enter a name and email address along with your comment, and it will be published.

Best of luck with your betting.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.