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Local Election Round Up

Last week’s local elections were Labour’s worst since 1976/1977. The Party finished up 20% behind the Conservatives, in terms of projected national vote share, and suffered a net loss of 334 seats, from a low base. Taking into account some Labour gains, against the trend, the Party lost nearly one third of the seats it was defending. Some of the results were striking.

For instance, the Conservatives outpolled Labour by 1,800 across the ten authorities of Greater Manchester; they outpolled Labour in heartland seats like Penistone, Rother Valley, Wakefield, Labour since 1932, and Ed Ball’s Morley & Outwood; in Wales, Labour held just two out of twenty two local authorities, the same number as the Conservatives. Lest the Conservatives get carried away, however, they performed even better in Labour’s heartlands, in 1967-1969, and 1976-1978, but Labour still held these areas comfortably in subsequent general elections.

London saw the Conservatives’ greatest triumph, with Boris Johnson taking the Mayoralty with over a million votes. Paradoxically, it also witnessed Labour’s best performances of the day, with the Party pushing up its vote share in the London Assembly elections, retaining several constituencies with increased majorities, and taking Brent & Harrow from the Conservatives. However, the Conservatives still led Labour by 9% in the London Assembly constituency elections, enough to give the Conservatives a majority of London seats at the next election.

The Conservatives were successful in almost every part of the England and Wales, making a net gain of 257 seats and 12 councils. The party gained overall control of two Metropolitan Boroughs, Solihull and Bury, and an overall majority in a third, North Tyneside. They advanced strongly across the Midlands, Wales, and the North of England. In 2006 and 2007, the Conservatives performed strongly across much of England, but saw no real advance in the Metropolitan Boroughs. Not this time. The Conservatives made a net gain of 67 seats in the Metropolitan Boroughs, outpolling Labour across the former Metropolitan counties of West Midlands, Greater Manchester, and West Yorkshire. Boris Johnson’s victory in London was tremendous news for them, as was the party’s gain of two seats on the Assembly.

However, the Conservatives have still not matched their performances of the late 1970s in either London (where they led Labour by 15% in the GLC elections of 1977) or in the Metropolitan Boroughs, where they held a majority of councils by 1978. Elsewhere in England, however, their local government strength is probably greater than ever before.

The Liberal Democrats’ results were more mixed. The Party gained the great prize of Sheffield, effectively gained control of Oldham, and won Burnley for the first time. At the same time, they lost Liverpool, which they had held since 1998, although they subsequently retained control by persuading an independent to switch. They made a net gain of 33 seats, which, in the context of a strong Conservative advance, is a reasonable result. They were badly squeezed in London however, as Brian Paddick polled less than 10% of the vote, and they lost two seats on the London Assembly. There must be a risk that they will suffer in the same way if the next general election is a close contest between Conservatives and Labour.

Among the smaller parties, Plaid Cymru performed fairly well, making a net gain of 31 seats. However, it lost its stronghold of Gwynedd, and narrowly failed to take Ceredigion. The Greens performed very strongly in Norwich, becoming the official opposition, and retained two seats on the London Assembly, but made no real advance elsewhere. The BNP made a handful of council seat gains, and got onto the London Assembly, but must have hoped to do better in a year of extreme Labour unpopularity. UKIP also made a handful of council gains, but were completely wiped out on the London Assembly.

So where does this leave the two main parties? Relative to the Conservatives, Labour are in about the same position as they were in the late Seventies. They are stronger in London and the Metropolitan Boroughs, but weaker in the rest of England, particularly in the South. The Conservatives are weaker in the larger urban areas, and far weaker in Scotland than they were then, but much stronger in the rest of England, whose share of the population has grown over the past thirty years.

If history repeats itself, this points to a clear, but not overwhelming, Labour defeat at the next election, and suggest that spread markets which give the Conservatives a majority of 40 are about right.

There was just one by-election last night at Medway Unitary Council, Rochester South and Horsted. The result was Conservative 1847, Labour 819, Lib Dem 767, BNP 257, Green 104. An easy Conservative hold.

picture Mike Smithson

The 2008 Local Election - The Districts

Seventy Eight District Councils will hold elections on May 1st, with around 1,300 seats being contested. Most will just contest one third of the seats, but six will contest half the seats, and three, Barrow-in-Furness, South Lakeland, and Welwyn Hatfield will witness all-out contests, as a result of boundary changes.

The majority of councils will see no change in control. Adur, Amber Valley, Basildon, Bassetlaw, Brentwood, Broxbourne, Cherwell, Chorley, Colchester, Cherwell, Crawley, Daventry, Epping Forest, Fareham, Great Yarmouth, Havant, Hertsmere, Huntingdon, Mole Valley, North Herts., Purbeck, Reigate & Banstead, Rochford, Rugby, Runnymede, Rushmoor, South Cambridgeshire, Stratford on Avon, Stroud, Tamworth, Tandridge, Tunbridge Wells, Waveney, Welwyn Hatfield, West Lancs., West Lindsey, and Worthing will all remain Conservative, barring some political earthquake over the next few days. Cambridge, Eastleigh, Pendle, South Lakeland, West Lindsey, Three Rivers, and Watford will remain Liberal Democrat, although, in the case of the last two, it will be interesting to see if the Conservatives can at last advance in the wards making up the Watford Parliamentary constituency, the closest three way marginal in 2005. Stevenage will retain its anomalous status as a safe Labour authority in the South of England.

Among those councils remaining under no overall control will be Burnley, although the Liberal Democrats should strengthen their position as largest party; in all likelihood, the BNP will also pick up a seat from Labour; Carlisle; Cannock Chase, currently run by a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition; Craven, once Conservative, but now with a strong Independent presence; Exeter, where the Conservatives should emerge as the largest party; Gloucester; Harlow; Hart; Harrogate, where the Conservatives are close to outright control, but which sees mostly Conservative seats being contested this time; Ipswich, although the Conservatives should come very close to taking outright control; Newcastle under Lyme; Norwich, where the Green Party, currently with ten councillors, stands an excellent chance of becoming the official opposition to Labour; Oxford, where the Conservatives will be doing well if they can even hold one or two seats. Remarkably, the Conservatives are now the fifth party in a city whose council they controlled for decades. Preston should remain under no overall control, as should St. Alban’s, although the Conservatives should gain some seats from the Liberal Democrats in that key marginal. Weymouth and Portland will see no change. Wyre Forest, where the Kidderminster Hospital Campaign remains strong, will remain under no overall control, as should the other two Worcestershire authorities up this year, Redditch and Worcester.

Among the rest, the Conservatives should gain overall control of Barrow-in Furness, Basingstoke & Deane, and Gosport, being just one seat short in each authority. They should also take Cheltenham, which they currently control in alliance with a minor local party, and will either gain, or come close to gaining, overall control of Elmbridge, where they form a minority administration. They should be able to take Maidstone, where they repeatedly fall just short of overall control, They should be able to gain overall control of Nuneaton & Bedworth from Labour, although a likely big vote for the BNP in that authority could prevent this. Hastings, where half the seats are up for election, ought to be a Conservative gain, although two poor by-election results last year make this uncertain.

The Conservatives are vulnerable in Castle Point (particularly after the defection of Robert Spink) where local independents have been gaining ground, although they should just hold on this time round. In both Lincoln, and Hyndburn, they are just one seat away from losing overall control, and Labour are very close to gaining outright control. I would expect the Conservatives to hold on in what I think will be a bad year for Labour, but they will be vulnerable in future. Rossendale has witnessed some dreadful Conservative performances in by elections, and will probably be lost to no overall control, with Labour as the largest party. Swale is another likely loss to no overall control, given the success of local independents. Both Winchester and Woking are vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, but should be held narrowly by the Conservatives this time round.

What are my overall predictions? I think Boris Johnson will win narrowly, by about 52% to 48% . On the London Assembly, I expect to see Labour lose at least two constituency seats, with a final tally of Conservative 10, Labour 5, Lib Dem 5, Green 3, and BNP 2, although UKIP might just make it back if enough Conservatives give them their list vote.

In terms of national vote projection, I would expect to see something like Conservative 42%, Lib Dem 25%, Labour 24%, with around 200 gains for the Conservatives (excluding the Shadow authorities), 250 losses for Labour, 50 losses for the Liberal Democrats, and the balance made up of gains for Plaid, minor parties and independents.

There were just two by-elections last night:-

Dover District - Little Stour and Ashstone: Conservative 1109, Lib Dem 459, Labour 113. A safe Conservative hold.

Hinckley and Bosworth Borough - Hinckley Castle: Lib Dem 802, BNP 264, Conservative 226, Labour 116. A safe Liberal Democrat hold, with another strong BNP performance in Leicestershire.

The Welsh Local Elections

Wales is seeing all-out local elections on May 1st. There are twenty two Welsh Unitary Authorities with 1,264 seats coming up for election. There are several curious features about Welsh local politics. Firstly, Labour doesn’t enjoy anything like the dominance in Wales that it enjoys at Parliamentary level. Currently it holds just eight of the authorities and does not control either Cardiff, or Swansea, Wales’ largest cities. Secondly, ratepayers, independents, and other non-party candidates remain very powerful. They dominate some rural authorities, and remain numerous even in the South Wales valleys, that are (usually) Labour strongholds in Parliamentary elections. Unlike their counterparts in some rural English districts, however, they should not be regarded as Conservatives in disguise. There are some Condependents in places like Pembrokeshire, and Powys, but overall, plenty of independents are supporters of either Labour, the Liberal Democrats, or Plaid Cymru. Thirdly, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats leave many seats uncontested, particularly in the South Wales valleys, and rural Welsh-speaking areas. The Conservatives however, have striven this year to increase the number of seats they contest.

When the councils were last fought, in 2004, Labour won 31% of the vote, 479 seats, and eight councils. Independents and minor parties won 27%, 356 seats, and three councils. Plaid won 16% of the vote, 175 seats and one council. The Liberal Democrats won 14%, 146 seats, and no councils. The Conservatives 11%, 107 seats, and one council. Nine councils are under no overall control.

Given Labour’s current poor standing in opinion polls, and the big drop in their vote in the Welsh Assembly elections, the party is likely to sustain significant losses in Wales. Turning to the individual councils:-

Blaenau Gwent should be lost by Labour to No Overall Control. They have lost the constituency three times in a row, and Peoples’ Voice are fielding a sufficiently large number of candidates to provide real opposition to Labour. Bridgend, governed by anti-Labour coalition, should remain under No Overall Control. Caerphilly provided a shock win for Plaid in 1999. Labour won it back narrowly in 2004, but a loss of just 4 seats would see it go to No Overall Control, which is likely.

Cardiff saw the Liberal Democrats fall just short in 2004, and on paper, they should gain the six seats they need to gain control. Yet, they finished a long way behind both Labour and the Conservatives, outside their Cardiff Central stronghold, in 2007, and another strong Conservative performance may just deny them overall control. They will certainly remain the largest party. Carmarthernshire, currently run by a joint Labour/Indpendent administration, will remain under No Overall Control, but expect to see Plaid advance. Ceredigion, presently under No Overall Control, is Plaid’s top target in this election.

I think they’ll take it, on the back of a strong Assembly vote, but Independents confuse the picture. Conwy will remain under No Overall Control, but should see the Conservatives advance. Denbighsire will remain under No Overall Control. Flintshire, with a Labour majority of just two seats, should pass to No Overall Control, although Labour will remain the largest party. Gwynedd will remain under Plaid’s control, although a new local party, Voice of Gwynedd, should gain a few seats. Merthyr Tydfil has a Labour majority of just one seat, with the opposition consisting of independents. In all likelihood, Labour will lose this to No Overall Control, with Plaid picking up a seat or two. Monmouthshire, the Conservatives’ only council, should remain easily under their control. Neath Port Talbot will be lost by Labour if they lose just four seats. However, they’ve managed to persuade two unopposed Ratepayers to join them so will probably just cling on. Typically for the South Wales valleys, this is a Conservative and Liberal Democrat-free zone. Newport currently has a Labour majority of twelve. Labour should just hold on, but they are threatened by the strong performances put in by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in West and East respectively, in the Assembly election.

Pembrokeshire currently has a comfortable Independent majority. For the first time, the council is being properly contested by the Conservatives, who are fielding twenty one candidates. Independents should hold their majority, but will lose a number of seats to the Conservatives in areas that vote Conservative at Parliamentary level. Similarly, Powys will remain under Independent control, but the Conservatives should pick up a handful of seats here. Rhondda Cynon Taff, a Labour citadel the late nineteenth century, produced another shock win for Plaid in 1999. Labour won it back in a landslide in 2004, and will hold it this time, but will probably lose some seats to Plaid. Swansea, currently under No Overall Control, will remain so, and Torfaen will remain under Labour control. Vale of Glamorgan, in theory, should be an easy Conservative gain from No Overall Control. Yet, the Conservatives have underperformed here in every round of elections since 1997, still failing to capture the seat in the Assembly last year. I think they’ll take overall control this time, but wouldn’t be surprised if they fail. Wrexham, currently under No Overall Control, offers Labour’s only real chance of a gain, following the disappearance of Forward Wales. However, it will probably remain under No Overall Control. Finally, Ynys Mon will remain Independent.

In summary then, I expect Labour to retain four councils, and lose perhaps 90 seats, but remain the largest party, overall. I would expect Plaid to win two councils, and maybe gain 30-40 seats. I would expect to see the Conservatives win two councils, and gain around 40 seats. I would expect to see Independents retain three councils, and the Liberal Democrats to just fall short in Cardiff, but gaining 20 or so seats between them. Eleven councils should be under No Overall Control.

Finally, I must thank the political activist “Meurig” for his invaluable comments on my predictions.

There were two by-elections last night.

Suffolk County Council, Stowmarket. Conservative 834, Lib Dem 781, Green 231, Labour 190, UKIP 114. Conservative hold. Both Conservatives and Lib Dems pushed up their vote strongly, at the expense of Labour, compared to the last by-election here in 2007.

Eden District Council, Morland. Independent 198, Conservative 108, LibDem 74. Indpendent gain from Conservative.

Countdown to May 1st - The Unitaries and the Shadows

A total of 338 Seats will be contested in 19 Unitary Authorities on May 1st. In addition, elections will be held for four new Shadow Unitary Authorities, Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester, Northumberland, and Durham, which will replace the existing County and District Councils, next year. A total of 346 seats are being contested in these new authorities.

Blackburn with Darwen, currently under No Overall Control, will remain that way. Labour are the largest party, but currently in opposition to a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition. Derby will also remain under No Overall Control, although, unusually, this has a Labour/Conservative administration. Halton will remain Labour. Hartlepool is currently run by an independent Mayor. No party has an overall majority and that will most likely remain the case after May 1st. Kingston upon Hull currently has a Liberal Democrat majority of just one seat, but they should increase this. Milton Keynes will remain under No Overall Control, with the Liberal Democrats remaining, just, the largest party, as will North East Lincolnshire. Ominously for Labour, in the latter, they are a very poor third, despite holding the Parliamentary seat. Peterborough will remain safely Conservative. Labour now have just two councillors left on an authority which they held until 1999. Plymouth will remain Conservative, particularly as UKIP, who polled quite strongly in local elections here, have disintegrated locally. Portsmouth offers the Liberal Democrats their best chance of a gain. They are just one seat short of a majority in that authority, and will be very disappointed if they can’t take it.

Reading, the last authority of any size still held by Labour in Southern England, is almost certain to go to be lost to No Overall Control. Labour have done very well to hold it so long, but their luck is sure to run out this year. By way of consolation, they have a good chance of gaining Slough, where they are just two seats short. Since there will be a double contest in a ward where a Conservative was convicted of electoral fraud, they should have no difficulty getting those two seats. Southampton should see the Conservatives become the largest single party, although without an overall majority. Southend on Sea will remain Conservative, although independents are starting to challenge strongly. Stoke on Trent has a Labour Mayor, but with no party having an overall majority on the council. Politics here used to be entirely predictable – with the council held by Labour for over eighty years (with a brief break in the late Sixties). Indeed, in 1997, Labour won 60 seats out of 60. But now, a strong local BNP, and a whole array of independents make this one of the most unpredictable councils in the country. Swindon will remain solidly Conservative. Thurrock would have given Labour an excellent chance of a gain, but I think the party’s unpopularity will prevent them from winning it back. Strong support for the BNP, who won a quarter of the vote last year, makes this hard to predict. Warrington will remain under Liberal Democrat control, and Wokingham, under Conservative control.

Northumberland will almost certainly go to No Overall Control, possibly with the Liberal Democrats as the largest party. Durham will plainly be won by Labour, although independents may well poll very strongly. And if the Conservatives really are doing as well as some current polls suggest, they ought to gain both the new authorities in Cheshire.

There were only two by-elections last night.

Herefordshire Unitary Authority, Old Gore. Conservative 422, Independent 401, Lib Dem 241, Green 49. A narrow Conservative hold in a marginal seat, with a turnout of 46%.

North East Derbyshire District Council, Holmwood & Heath. Lib Dem 382, Labour 356, Conservative 165. Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. This seat had been left uncontested for many years, and plainly Labour were nothing like as strong here as their opponents believed.

A preview of 2008’s Local Elections (Part I)

Most of the interest on May 1st will focus on the London Mayoralty. Elsewhere, however, there are important local elections taking place. All 36 Metropolitan Boroughs will see one third of their councillors elected. The 22 Welsh Unitary authorities will see all of their councillors come up for election. 4 District councils will have all-out elections, 5 will elect half their councillors, and 71 will elect one third. There are also elections for 4 new “shadow” unitary authorities, in Cheshire, Durham, and Northumberland. These authorities will not come into existence until 2009, when the existing County and District councils will be abolished.

In this piece, I shall examine the Metropolitan Boroughs, and then comment on the remaining authorities in future weeks.

Almost all the seats being contested in May were last contested in 2004. In that year, according to Plymouth University’s figures, Labour won 33% of the vote in these authorities, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats 26% each, and minor parties and independents, the remaining 15%. These vote shares have remained remarkably constant in 2006, and 2007, and until very recently, I would have expected them to remain roughly the same this year. However, Labour’s recent very sharp slide in the polls, and current economic uncertainty, suggest to me that Labour will slip back, and will suffer a small net loss of seats this year. Looking at the Boroughs in turn:-

Doncaster (with a Labour Mayor, although Labour have fewer than half the seats) , Gateshead, Knowsley, Manchester, Rotherham, Salford, Sandwell, South Tyneside, Sunderland, Tameside, Wigan, Wakefield, and Wolverhampton will remain safe for Labour. The Conservatives will be looking to gain ground in Salford, Sunderland, and Wakefield, the Liberal Democrats, in Gateshead, and Knowsley.

Trafford, Dudley, and Walsall will remain in Conservative hands, and Rochdale, Stockport, and Newcastle upon Tyne, will remain in the hands of the Liberal Democrats. Despite Labour’s strong performance in Liverpool, in 2007, when they finished just 2% behind the Liberal Democrats, across the City, the Liberal Democrats should retain control this year, but could well be vulnerable in 2010.

Birmingham will remain under no overall control, but in all likelihood, the ruling Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition will gain a few seats from Labour. Labour would have had an outside chance of taking Bolton from no overall control, but in the current climate, the best they can realistically hope for is to consolidate their current position as largest party. Bradford will remain under no overall control, with Labour likely to remain as the largest party; likewise Leeds. In both cities, anti-Labour coalitions are in power. No party will gain overall control of Calderdale, although the Liberal Democrats will be hoping to overtake the Conservatives as the largest single party. The Conservatives held outright control from 2000 to 2004, but have been slipping back since. In Solihull, currently under no overall control, the Conservatives will probably remain the largest party, but lose further ground to the Liberal Democrats. Wirral, Kirklees, and Sefton, will stay under no overall control, as they have done for many years. St. Helen’s will continue under no overall control, but the Liberal Democrats will probably become the largest single party.

It is very hard to see the Conservatives retaining overall control of Coventry. Currently, they have a majority of two, and two of the seats they are defending were won comfortably by Labour last year. Labour might have hoped to gain overall control here, but in current circumstances, that seems unlikely. By way of consolation, the Conservatives can expect to win a majority on North Tyneside, although, with a Labour Mayor, Labour will retain control. I would also expect now to see the Conservatives to win overall control of Bury, where currently, they are the largest single party. Oldham, controlled by Labour on the Mayor’s casting vote, will probably be lost to the Liberal Democrats. Sheffield will probably see the Liberal Democrats move to largest single party status and pick up the last Conservative seat in the City. And last, but not least, Barnsley could well be lost by Labour to no overall control, being a borough where independents are now challenging Labour hard.

Last night saw three by-elections:-

London Borough of Havering, Gooshays: BNP 865, Labour 741, Con 489, UKIP 70, National Liberal 62, Lib Dem 52. BNP hold. This ward is typical of the London overspill estates that were once solidly Labour, but have now shifted markedly rightwards. This is the second time in recent months that the BNP have retained an Essex seat in a by-election, this time with an increased vote share. The Conservatives performed poorly, given that they hold the other two seats in the ward.

London Borough of Lambeth,Vassall. Lib. Dem. 1209, Labour 856, Conservative 206, Green 109, English Democrat 8, Independent 7. Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, on a 12% swing. The Liberal Democrats performed badly in Lambeth in 2006,and so will be delighted by their performance in this ward. Quite possibly, the Lambeth/Southwark GLA constituency will now be vulnerable to them in May.

Arun District, Yapton. Conservative 620, Labour 212, BNP 205. An easy Conservative hold, but again, a surprisingly high vote for the BNP.

The View from East Anglia

East Anglia is a part of the country that the Conservatives have increasingly come to dominate over the past 50 years. For many years after the war, Labour provided a real challenge to the Conservatives in this region, both in rural constituencies, like North, South, and South West Norfolk, Eye, and Maldon, and in urban areas like Norwich, Ipswich, and much of South Essex, with its new towns.

Labour’s (and pre-war, the Liberals’) rural strength was based on the agricultural workers’ unions. British agricultural areas all suffered from cheap imports of food, from the 1870s to the 1940s, and this was particularly acute in East Anglia. Unusually, this prompted a sharp shift to the left among farm workers in the region. At the same time, strong support among urban working class voters helped Labour in the towns, particularly in South Essex.

Yet, those props of Labour support have now largely disappeared. Far fewer people work on the land now, and those who do are not particularly Labour in their sympathies, while the region as a whole has seen its economy boom in the past 50 years, bringing in immigrants from the rest of the country, with new political sympathies.

At the same time, working class Southern voters are nothing like as Labour in their sympathies as they were 50 years ago. Thus, a Conservative lead of about 6% over Labour, across Norfolk, Suffolk, Cambridgeshire (as it is now) and Essex (on its current boundaries) ** in 1955, when the Conservatives won, had become a Conservative lead of 14% by 2005, when Labour won. On the new boundaries, the Conservatives would have won 30 seats, in 2005, Labour 8, and the Liberal Democrats, 3. Here, as elsewhere, the Conservatives benefit from the boundary changes.

The following seats can be regarded as safe for the Conservatives: in Essex, Saffron Walden, Rochford and Southend East, Epping Forest, Southend West, North Essex and Harwich (formerly North Essex), Brentwood & Ongar, Castle Point, Chelmsford, Rayleigh and Wickford, Maldon, and Basildon & Billericay (formerly Billericay).

In addition, Braintree, and Clacton (formerly Harwich), which were both Conservative gains in 2005, have been converted into safe seats by the Boundary Commission. In addition, a new Conservative safe seat is created at Witham. In Cambridgeshire, North East, North West, South East, South, Peterborough, and Huntingdon. In Norfolk, Mid, North West, South, and South West, while a new safe Conservative seat is created at Broadland. And in Suffolk, Coastal, Central and Ipswich North, South, West, and Bury St. Edmunds.

For the Liberal Democrats, Cambridge, which they gained spectacularly in 2005, should be retained easily. North Norfolk, retained equally spectacularly, likewise. Colchester will be harder to defend, but with a majority 6,000 is one of their less vulnerable Tory targets, particularly as there is still a fair-sized Labour vote to squeeze.

Labour’s position is much tougher. Only two of their seats, Thurrock, and Norfolk North (where boundary changes assist them) can now be regarded as truly safe.
In Essex, neither Harlow, with a Labour majority of 97, nor South Basildon and East Thurrock (formerly Basildon), with a majority of about 1,500, look like bellwether seats any more. Labour could lose the first, and still retain its overall majority, and lose the second, and remain the largest party easily. In Great Yarmouth, the party has a lead of 3,000, over the Conservatives, and if this falls, the parties are likely to be roughly even in terms of seats. Further up the scale are the classic marginals of Ipswich (majority 5,000), and Waveney (majority 6,000). If these fall, the Conservatives will probably just about have attained an overall majority in the Commons.

The Liberal Democrats’ one hope of a gain is in Norfolk South, where Charles Clarke has a lead of only 3,000. It has a large population of students and academics, and a sizeable Conservative vote left to squeeze, making it a classic Liberal Democrat target but Clarke may be saved by the strength of the Green Party in the constituency, who tend to pick up votes that would otherwise go to the Liberal Democrats.

**One can’t give a precise figure as in 1955, some constituencies crossed the boundary of what is now Greater London and Essex.

Sean Fear writes a weekly slot on Politicalbetting