politicalbetting.com

Are Labour’s chances as bad as the media is suggesting?

This weekend hundreds and maybe thousands of activists from the main parties will be heading to Crewe and Nantwich for a big couple of days of campaigning ahead of the critical by election a week on Thursday.

The weather’s good, the constituency’s road and rail links are excellent and, most of all, Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems have each got something to prove in this key test of public opinion during a very difficult time for the government.

Already several of those who have been flocking to the south Cheshire towns have been giving us their impressions on the PB comments threads. If you are amongst the campaigners please let us know so we can build up a picture of what is happening on the ground.

On the face of it this should be an easy one for Cameron’s Conservatives. Last week’s local election, the London outcome and the latest YouGov poll all point to support shedding away from the governing party throughout the country. If it’s happening nationally then surely the same must be being experienced in C&N?

The most important factor for a party defending is the extent to which it can get its support out and the signs nationally suggest that this might be very hard for Labour. Even in Sedgefield last July at the start of Gordon Brown’s media honeymoon the Labour candidate saw his party’s vote drop by 14%. Labour supporters have bad record of turning out in elections when the government of the country is not at stake.

Even when they are starting from third place, like here, the Lib Dems always have the potential to pull off a shock. Could they start appealing to Labour supporters that the only way of stopping a Tory victory is by switching to them?

So even if you have never posted here before please share with us your experiences. Let’s see if we can get a good picture of what is going on. Many thanks.

Latest by election betting.

Mike Smithson

Could the City Hall outcome be a marker for Downing Street?

If London ITV is following its normal pattern then either today or tomorrow we should see a new opinion poll of voters in the capital on the London mayoralty. The organisation commissioned a YouGov survey at the end of every month since December and let us hope that it is following the normal pattern.

I took last week’s news, which wasn’t as far as I know denied, that Downing Street thought that Ken was going to be beaten as a sure sign that Labour’s private polling was confirming that Boris was ahead by a substantial margin - a fortnight ago YouGov had it at 12%.

So the evidence is mounting that the Tories will take City Hall in four and a half week’s time and certainly this is how punters are seeing it. The latest betting has Boris at 0.47/1.

But the mayoral race is, after all, only a local election. The big question is whether it will tell us anything about the general election and whether, in particular, being a “Toff” is no longer an electoral liability.

Certainly conventional wisdom in the Tory party has been that going to Eton and Oxbridge, like Boris and Dave, could alienate voters and, indeed, this was said to be one of the main reasons in 1990 why Douglas Hurd’s leadership bid floundered.

This view has been shared by many in the Labour party - just look at the way it has sought to portray both Johnson and Cameron. Only a month ago at the party’s spring conference Boris coming from Eton and “being posh” were a key part of the anti-Johnson rhetoric. This might fire up the activists but if it is shown not to impact on elections then other lines of attack on Cameron will need to be emphasised.

In the general election betting I can see a Tory victory on May 1st prompting an even stronger move to the Tories - but a lot could happen in the next month.

Mike Smithson

Did you get a bet on in the new PMQs market?

With the two tabloids that are reckoned to have the most impact on public opinion, the Mail and the Sun, leading on the legal bid by the Speaker to stop MPs expenses being made public could David Cameron be considering this as his first line of attack at PMQs this lunchtime?

The Tory leader has never been known to be shy when it comes to issues raised by the tabloids and it would certainly fit in with his attempts to be a populist on the issue of what MPs claim. Last month to groans from all sides of the house he was calling at PMQs for the abolition of final salary pension schemes for new MPs.

The legal move followed a decision a few hours earlier by the information tribunal ordering that data about the housing allowances paid to 14 specific MPs, including Gordon Brown and David Cameron, be published this week. Among the other politicians included in the group are John Prescott, George Osborne, and Ming Campbell.

In what seemed like an advance move to put Brown under pressure the Telegraph is reporting that “Mr Cameron’s aides disclosed that of the £21,359 he claimed in 2005-06 more than £21,200 was for the mortgage interest paid on his constituency home in Witney, Oxfordshire. He is thought to have claimed less than £100 on utility bills and nothing on household furnishings or groceries.”

All this comes after the new betting market on Cameron’s first topic at PMQs appeared to have really taken off with hundreds of wagers being placed following the story here yesterday afternoon.

It would be interesting to know if Brown and Cameron are following this market. My guess is that their offices certainly are.

Mike Smithson

Where’s the value in Ladbroke’s new market?

Ladbrokes are sticking with the innovative new betting market on what Cameron’s first question will be at PMQs tomorrow. Reproduced above are the latest prices.

My favourites are something to do with the London Mayoral election or a follow-up to Brown U-turn on the embryo bill free vote.

Mike Smithson

Launching the new market - betting on Prime Minister’s Questions

The bookmakers, Ladbrokes has launched what could develop into a fascinating weekly betting market - What will be the topic of David Cameron’s first question at PMQs?

Normally the most watched and most speculated about moment in the commons each week happens just after midday on Wednesdays when the opposition leader gets to his feet and starts the first of the six questions he is allowed to put to the Prime Minister. The latter has no idea what is coming though clearly he can guess. The former can often try to wrong-foot Brown by taking a tangential approach and not starting with the obvious.

This could be tricky and there was no better example than the first PMQs after the Northern Rock nationalisation. This surely was the certain topic that Cameron would lead on and clearly Brown had a well thought out sound-bite all ready. Not so. Dave split his questions into two batches and the first had nothing to do with NR. Then Nick Clegg came in with his allocated two questions and probed on Northern Rock.

Brown then used his pre-rehearsed anti-Tory sound-bite only to find that Cameron’s second phase of questions was to probe an aspect of the nationalisation plan where he thought the government was weak. Brown had used his sound-bite and looked flummoxed.

These were the opening prices for today’s PMQs
Childcare/Family issues 3/1
China/Tibet 7/2
Budget/Taxes 4/1
Economy/Banking/Stock Market 4/1
Iraq/Afghanistan 8/1
Schools/Education 10/1
Crime/Policing 14/1
Kosovo 14/1
ImmigrationAsylum| 16/1
Iran 16/1
NHS/Health 16/1
Environment/Green Issues 20/1
MPs Pay/Allowances 20/1
European Union 25/1
London Mayoral Election 25/1
Terrorism/National Security 25/1
Transport 25/1
Gambling 100/1

The Economy/Banking/Stockmarket option at 4/1 has been the most backed and last night Ladbrokes had tightened this to 4/5. The market should be up by 9 am and will be closed at 11.am You can link to it when it opens from here

Mike Smithson

Interesting article in the Guardian by the commentator who used to be one of his most enthusiastic supporters, Jackie Ashley.

She believe that Brown is being too timid when it comes to picking fights and concludes: “…unless the prime minister has the courage to pick fights with powerful interests, then it really is all over. Labour’s assessment of the Tories as lightweight and meaningless is quite wrong. Cameron has won his advantage by taking some brave decisions, not by staying in his comfort zone. Brown needs to be open enough to learn too - that in politics sometimes it is better to pick fights and lose them, than not to fight at all. Brown was making jokes about his big clunking fist in Birmingham. What’s really needed is for that fist to drop the piles of briefing papers and to start to swing in anger.”

Mike Smithson