It went down well with the Tory Backbenchers (as did Calm Down Dear)

But is this something Cameron should avoid doing, will it enhance the Flashman meme?

Link to the exchange here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=W3YjCudUpIk

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.

I suspect PMQs will feature the IMF report published yesterday, which will provide both sides with enough quotes to develop decent sound bites.

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.

Welcome once again to PB’s overnight open thread in the relaxing atmosphere of the PB NightHawks cafe.

There have been several reports that Alastair Darling has identified Tony Blair to be the figurehead of the Unionist campaign in the upcoming referendum.

Will the participation of the most electorally successful politician of his era, be a help or a hindrance?

Over at CIF, this move is seen as Labour being in denial.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/may/21/tony-blair-scotland-union-labour

Personally, I think Tony Blair remains one of the few politicians in the country, that can match Alex Salmond on the charisma and PR front.

Whether that is enough, remains to be seen, as ever, this needs to be seen through the eyes of the voters of Scotland.

TSE

Conservatives 36 (+3)

Labour 41 (nc)

LD 11 (-4)

Others 12 (+1)

Alarming for the the Lib Dems, they have hit a 15 year low with ICM.

For David Cameron, the trend with the other pollsters is mirrored here, as his personal ratings have fallen, where he is now in a dead heat with Ed Miliband on the leadership ratings.

The coalition retain their lead on the economic front, with some 44% prefer Cameron and chancellor George Osborne, as against 35% who would rather Ed Miliband and his shadow chancellor Ed Balls were in charge of the finances.

The gap was 21 points in December, 18 in January, 17 in March and 13 in April before closing by another four points over the last month.

There should be a Populus poll in the Times this evening, as soon as that is available, this post will be updated.

Populus Update

TSE

Welcome to PB’s holiday servicae

I am now heading for a much needed to break in Spain and PB will not be operating a normal service. TSE has joined the guest editor team and will be looking after things.

There will still be threads and TSE will be monitoring the polls.

There will also be regular PB prediction polls like the one we had yesterday on Jeremy Hunt which, in as they used to say on Blue Peter, was prepared earlier.

The one today is on UKIP – how well the will they perform in the June 2014 Euro elections. Could it be that they end up with most votes?

Should we find the reports a bit scary?

There’s a new book out which reports that Dave is a frequent follower of “political betting websites” which he comes to for polling analysis. While PB is not mentioned specifically this is the only site that fits the bill.

We already knew from the Kavanagh/Cowley book on the 2010 general election that this is one of his favourite sites and I have had it reported to me over the weekend from a well-placed source that PB continues to be amongst his favourites.

All this is very flattering but in a way it is also a bit worrying. PB’s success, I believe, is because politics is viewed as a horse-race where everything is about outcomes.

Thus to PBers getting on at a good price is our main aim – not whatever is best for the country.

So the rightness or wrongness of a particular policy strategy is irrelevant. What matters is how such a strategy will impact on the polling, the betting and whether we win.

Inevitably we are the ultimate short-termists. That’s fine for those who get intense pleasure and profit from getting a bet right but I would hope that our leaders view things a little differently.

This is my last post for two and a half weeks. I’m off to southern Spain to do my bit to help their economy. For the first time I am not taking my laptop.

Mike Smithson

The two big moves in opinion since the general election have been the Lib Dem collapse with the switch to Labour and now the rise of UKIP.

The former has been studied at length but there’s been very little polling data on the latter. One challenge is that of all the pollsters only ComRes provides cross-tabs on UKIP supporters. In its latest poll Comres also has the question “Which, if any, of these parties would you seriously consider voting for at a General Election if it were held tomorrow?”.

From the data for the SIndy/SMirror poll we can start to build a picture of what current UKIP supporters are thinking and the potential election dynamics.

These are some of the headline points which I Tweeted:

ComRes: 47% of current UKIP supporters voted Tory at the 2010 election. 14% voted LD and just 3% voted Labour

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: Just 22% of UKIP supporters would “seriously consider” voting Tory

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: 13% of current UKIP supporters would “seriously consider” voting BNP at next election

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: Just 9% of UKIP supporters say “Cameron is turning out to be a good prime minister”. 76% say he isn’t

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

ComRes: 4% of UKIP supporters would vote to “stay in EU”"

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 20, 2012

@MikeSmithsonOGH

David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister

Agree 26% (-3)

Disagree 54% (+4)

Net agree -28 (-7)

Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party

Agree 26% (+8)

Disagree 45% (-4)

Net agree -19 (+12 )

Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats

Agree 20% (-2)

Disagree 56% (+4)

Net agree -36 (-6)

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy

Agree 26% (+1)

Disagree 55% (+1)

Net agree -29 (0)

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy

Agree 22% (+3)

Disagree 51% (-1)

Net agree -29 (+4)

Leaving the European Union would be bad for the British economy in terms of lost jobs and trade

Agree 36%

Disagree 40%

If a referendum were held on Britain’s membership of the EU, I would vote for Britain to leave the EU

Agree 46%

Disagree 30%

Which, if any, of these parties would you seriously consider voting for at a General Election if it were held tomorrow? Please indicate all that apply

The poll is the regular monthly one by ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and the SIndy.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

David Herdson on Saturday

The current and next phases of the Eurocrisis is all about who will prevail when the irresistible force of the Greek electorate meets the immovable object of Angela Merkal and the Greek debt-holders.

Without funds from the international institutions, Greece will default. Those funds will not be forthcoming if Greece doesn’t implement the policies that were part of the deal. Those policies won’t be enacted unless Greece has a government committed to them. Five of the six polls taken since the May election point to a two-to-one anti-austerity majority after the next election. It ought to be a no-brainer. Is it though?

For one thing, the election re determined yet. Since the May poll, there’s been a consolidation of votes from the minor parties towards New Democracy on the pro-bailout centre-right and Syriza on the anti-austerity left. With a month or so still to go, the margins are very tight though one thing that does look likely is that either a ND-Pasok coalition or a Syriza-led alternative will be viable next time.

Even if Syriza do come out on top, there’s still an almighty game of bluff and chicken to be played. Both sides must know how bad an uncontrolled default would be. On the one hand, Greece’s government would not be able to pay wages, pensions and other expenses anywhere near in full or on time. On the other, there’d be severe strains on the banking system as the creditors assessed their losses, and there’d be fear of a domino effect in the larger Mediterranean economies.

It would be better if a deal could be done – except of course as Merkal, the IMF and ECB would point out, a deal has already been done. If Greece’s word wasn’t reliable then, why would it be now?

The risk then is that both sides believe that the other is bluffing and will cave in at the last minute, neither then does, leading to the uncontrolled default.

What then? The belief does seem to have taken hold that default must automatically lead to an exit from the Euro for Greece. That may well be a self-fulfilling policy – if everyone has prepared that response to that outcome then that’s what will happen, irrespective of other options. It may even hasten default as Greeks undermine their banking system, withdrawing precious Euros while they can. It needn’t though. There’s nothing in the EU treaties to enforce such a move (indeed, there’s nothing to enable it at all, though practicalities trump legalities at times like this).

Historically, there’ve been several cases of states within a currency union defaulting or repudiating debt and continuing within the currency union, most obviously within the United States. Following another banking crisis – this time in 1837 – nine states or territories failed to honour their commitments. They still use the Dollar, though Mississippi is still blackballed on some markets as their repudiation remains unresolved.

What the impact of a Greek default and/or exit would be on British politics is harder to assess. On the one hand, the economy would take a hit, with growth likely remaining at best flat for the rest of the year and unemployment trending back up again – none of which would be good for the government. On the other, it would be a clear example of the failure of over-borrowing and over-spending, which doesn’t much help Labour. It might equally be interesting for the media to ask Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg whether they still favour Britain’s entry into the Euro in principle.

As for the betting angle, Paddy Power have it as 4/6 that Greece will still be using the Euro at the end of the year, against 11/10 that it will be the Drachma. Oddschecker say that Stan James apparently have Greece as 1/7 to be the first country out of the Euro, though it wasn’t on the website at the time of writing (the 14% return being about half that of Greek 10-year bonds for comparison). Neither seems to offer much value at the moment but it’s worth keeping a keen eye on the Greek polls as a lot will turn on the election outcome.

David Herdson

Opinium’s leader ratings also have Ed ahead of Dave

There’s a new poll out from Opinium – the online firm that hasn’t received much credit for being closest with the final Boris-Ken split in the London Mayoral election just over a fortnight ago.

It reported a 52-48 final split which was two points closer than YouGov. The final split in actual votes was 51.53% to 48.47%.

Opiinum’s latest Westminster VI poll is now reporting, like the other firms, a move to Labour away from the Tories since April with a very high UKIP share. This is the split CON 30-2/LAB 41+2/UKIP 10-/LD 9+1.

The firm’s leader approval ratings show with changes on last month: DC=-27%(-5)/EdM =-17(+9)/NC-46(-3)

All this is in line with what we’ve seen from YouGov and the other firms.

It means that all the polls from all the pollsters to have reported since the May 3 local elections have LAB with double digit leads.

After the weekend we should get the results of phone polls from ICM and Populus.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Is there any point in betting on the 2016 race?

Both PaddyPower and Ladbrokes have now got markets up on the 2015 London mayoral race and there appears to have been a bit of activity with Labour’s Alan Johnson now second favourite with both – 6/1 with the former and 10/1 the latter.

The interest in Alan Johnson stems from comments he made about how him running this time had been a possibility and that he might put his cap into the ring for next time.

Given how close this last race was when Labour came within just 1.5% of victory it’s easy to argue that AJ might have just squeezed it for the red team.

He certainly carries a lot less baggage than Ken and is a far better media performer.

But what about 2016? Is it ridiculous to start locking up your cash this far out?

That’s a hard call. Before the 2010 general election I had a punt at 14/1 against Ken because it looked a value bet even though then it was far from certain that he would be the Labour candidate. I didn’t win but having the potential winnings allowed me to offset other positions.

Given the way Labour selects its London candidate then the chances must be quite strong of it going to someone as well known and generally well liked as Alan Johnson. At 14/1 I’d be tempted but even 10/1 is too short.

Whether the Tory candidate will be Boris is far from certain. My guess is that by 2016 he’ll be back in the commons and, who knows, could be plotting to win Dave’s job.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Surely Cameron will continue well beyond this year?

The appearance by ex-Sun editor Kelvin Mackenzie on BBC’s Question Time last night reminded me of his £1000 bet that he wrote about in the Daily Mail just a week and a half ago.

“I like a bet and sensed a killing was to be made when I saw a throwaway line in a Sunday paper. It said Rebekah Brooks, former chief executive of News International, was prepared to make public all the texts and emails sent between her and David Cameron.

Considering what might be in this correspondence, I asked Ladbrokes to give me odds on Cameron not being Prime Minister by the end of November. At 10-1, I wagered £1,000.

I always thought he would be a one-term premier; I didn’t realise he would be a half-term premier.

If I win, I will give my jackpot to the Help For Heroes charity. If I lose, though, I will have to stop reading the Sunday papers.”

The Leveson appearance by Rebekah Brooks didn’t quite produce the fire-works that Kelvin was predicting. On the big political picture it is true that the Tories/Dave are going through a polling slump but I’m not convinced that the party will get to the point when there’s a move against the leadership.

These things build up over very long periods as we saw with Mrs. Thatcher in 1989/1990. It is true that the Tories have history of ruthlessness against leaders thought to be failing but we are long way off the election and there’s time for recovery.

Ladbrokes is currently offering 7/1 on this bet. I’m not tempted.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Is James Forsyth calling this right?

The Speccies’s James Foryth: Ed Miliband as PM is no longer an absurd proposition but a distinct political possibility. bit.ly/KkUhe6

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 17, 2012

The Speccie’s political editor and one of the best connected journalists in the Westminster village makes the case tonight that PM Miliband is a distinct possibility. Is he right?

Have a good night

@MikeSmithsonOGH

What are we to make of reports that he might?

Partly because I’m writing regularly on the 2012 White House race for the Telegraph I’m being contacted a lot by Ron Paul supporters who believe that there man will be in a strong position at the Republican National Convention in Tampa at the end of August.

First they are saying ignore the regular delegate counts put out by the media – these are only half the story. For over the past months bands of Paul backers have been using the procedures of the district and state parties to get themselves elected as delegates to Tampa.

Even many of those delegates notionally bound to Romney are Paul activists.

Thus in Mitt’s home state of Massachusetts many of the ex-governor’s own nominations for convention places didn’t get selected losing out to Paul team.

What are they going to do when the convention comes to vote?

The assumption has been that in the election in Tampa to choose the White House nominee they are bound, at least, to vote for Mitt on the first ballot. Not so if this article is to be believed. There’s a legal argument going on that they could vote for Paul on the first ballot.

If you a Romney backer, like me read the article.

This might not be as straightforward as it seems.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

The above is a list of all the post-general election findings to YouGov’s forced choice question which for years I have regarded as an equal if not better pointer to election outcomes than the standard voting intention polling.

Its strength is that it combines party allegiance and views of the leaders with what people would most like to see happen. It is also a possible pointer to potential tactical voting.

Unfortunately YouGov has only asked it twice this year but the contrast between the January and May figures is very telling.

Back in 2011 when Labour started to build up voting intention leads many blue backers took some consolation from the regular findings.

The view then that whatever the voting numbers Ed Miliband was sufficiently unpopular for a red victory to appear remote.

That has changed.. Ed is being viewed more favourably while perceptions of Dave have declined.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

A couple of people have raised with time the question of when they can expect to pick up their winnings on Mitt Romney for the Republican party nomination.

The battle is just about all over with Mitt expected to cross the finishing line with the 1144 delegates in the next two to three weeks.

Unfortunately for punters the bookies are likely to do what they have done in the past and wait until the party convention has met. With the GOP that won’t happen until the end of August.

Betfair’s rules are quite explicit – “This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2012 Republican National Convention.”

So if you are waiting to pick up winnings then you are going to have to be patient.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Would Phillip Hammond be best placed to become leader&PM?

These have been a bloody few weeks for David Cameron. One problem seems to have piled on another and his personal poll ratings and those of his party have plummeted.

What if the narrative continues and there seem few signs of improvement?

What if Labour’s double digit poll leads continue and the idea takes hold that the dream of a Tory majority simply isn’t going to happen and that the most likely outcome is a return of Labour?

What if we reach a point where the Conservatives do what they’ve done in the past and ditch a leader perceived to be a loser?

It is a sign of the times that Ladbrokes is offering what to me is a skinny 7/1 that Dave will be out before the year end.

If Dave did have to step down before the general election then my choice for next Tory leader and PM would be the defence secretary, Phillip Hammond. Unlike most of those close to the PM Hammond is in his mid-50s, went to a state school, and had a successful career outside politics before becoming an MP.

It would be hard for Nadine Dorries to pin the label “posh” on him.

Of the Tory front bench team he is one of the few that gives an air of confidence and sure-footedness. In the past few days he’s had a very good week on defence issues and is an effective communicator.

Of the alternatives Boris is not an MP and went to Eton; Osborne, also public school and the Bullington club, has been too associated with Cameron and David Davis is not a minister.

I was going to end suggesting that you have a Hammond bet. Ladbrokes, amazingly now make him the 10/1 third favourite for the leadership. As I write there’s nothing available on Betfair though PaddyPower have a tempting 33/1 against him being next PM. If, unlike me, you can make a decent size bet with the Irish bookie then it’s worth a punt.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

What a day for political news

This has been one of those days. After last night’s YouGov poll with its record lead we then had the charges in the News International case only to be followed an hour or so later by one of the four main telephone polls – Ipsos-MORI.

Then there was the election to the Conservatives 1922 committee in which the old guard appears to have seen off the young usurpers. On top of that EdM has been making changes to his shadow line-up.

Have a good night’s conversation.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Both the PM and Nick Clegg see 8 points drops

Another poll, MORI, has EdM beating DC in leader ratings.Ed’s net rating is -16/Dave’s is -28/Clegg’s is -39 bit.ly/JXzzkh

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Clegg also sees a big drop in his MORI ratings down from -31 in April to -39 now.bit.ly/JXzzkh

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Cameron’s -28% MORI rating is worse than Gordon Brown’s was in any survey from the pollster in the 5 months before the 2010 election.

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

MORI has CON lead on economy down to just 1%. They are on 31% LAB 30%bit.ly/JXzzkh

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

The latest Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Evening Standard is out and has more bad polling news for the coalition parties and their leaders.

The voting intention numbers are CON 33 (-2):LAB43 (+5): LD 9 (-3), But it’s the MORI leader ratings which, arguably, are the most significant.

Dave’s -28% rating is worse than anything that Brown scored with MORI in the period up to the 2010 general election. These were:-

JAN 2012 -26%
FEB 2010 -21%
MAR 2010 -26%
APR 2010 -24%

Clegg (-8) and the Lib Dems (-3) come out of this poll appallingly as well.

The only consolation for them is that EdM’s personal numbers have only moved a little even though Labour voting intention share has risen by 5%.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Important legal notice

We are now entering a different phase legally and and there should be no speculation, smears or innuendos regarding these developments. Any posts on this subject matter needs to come from a reputable source, with a link.

Any poster disregarding this will have their post removed and will be banned from posting.

CHARGE 1 – CONSPIRACY TO PERVERT THE COURSE OF JUSTICE

Rebekah Brooks between 6th July and 19th July 2011 conspired with Charles Brooks, Cheryl Carter, Mark Hanna, Paul Edwards, Daryl Jorsling and persons unknown to conceal material from officers of the Metropolitan Police Service.

CHARGE 2 – CONSPIRACY TO PERVERT THE COURSE OF JUSTICE

Rebekah Brooks and Cheryl Carter between 6th July and 9th July 2011 conspired together permanently to remove seven boxes of material from the archive of News International.

CHARGE 3 – CONSPIRACY TO PERVERT THE COURSE OF JUSTICE

Rebekah Brooks, Charles Brooks, Mark Hanna, Paul Edwards and Daryl Jorsling conspired together and with persons unknown, between 15th July and 19th July 2011, to conceal documents, computers and other electronic equipment from officers of the Metropolitan Police Service.

See this link here

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Update – Labour lead on 14: Latest YouGov/The Sun results 14th May CON 31%, LAB 45%, LD 7%, (UKIP 8%); APP -42 y-g.co/JPOlcP

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2012

The YouGov LAB 45% CON 31% split is slightly better for Labour than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide when the voting wasLAB 44.4% CON 31.4%

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Tonight’s YouGov lead for Labour of 14% is the highestrecorded by the firm since it started polling 10years sgo

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

YouGov have Labour taking the lead for the first time on “handling the economy”

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

LAB has still some way to go before it gets to what the Tories were polling in 2008. On May 8 that year YouGov had 49/23/17 – a 26% lead

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

Join the web’s best political conversation

Welcome once again to our overnight thread in the PB NightHawks cafe.

According to the site stats there are many more people who lurk and follow the threads compared with those who actually post. Please don’t be inhibited particularly here in the “cafe” and post tonight.

Have a good evening.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Peter Kellner says “I still think a Conservative victory is the likeliest outcome in 2015…” bit.ly/JuGAv2

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

Interesting article on the latest ratings changes for Ed Miliband and David Cameron on the YouGov site by Peter Kellner. Looking back he notes:-

“…In the months leading up to the 1970 election, Wilson’s ratings improved. By election day he was much better liked than Heath. Yet Heath won: Wilson’s mid-term travails had been too profound, and his late surge too fragile, to give him the victory he expected.

History seldom repeats itself in a tidy manner; so I am not yet predicting that David Cameron will end up like a Tory Harold Wilson, or Ed Miliband a Labour Edward Heath. I still think a Conservative victory is the likeliest outcome in 2015.

However, if the post-Budget shifts in sentiment do persist through the summer, that judgement may change..”

Clearly there are three years to go and anything can happen. Cameron does need to recover from his April and now May slump or else it will have a look of permanence about it.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Will they capitalise most on the Lib Dem collapse?

While UKIP continues to get most attention in the “others” category the organisation in that segment that has been making real electoral progress is Caroline Lucas’s Green Party.

Unlike the disorganised purples who failed even to get the UKIP party name onto the ballot papers in London the Greens had a very good May 3rd. Their net councillor total went up by 11 and of course, their candidate in the London mayoral race, Jenny Jones, came in third adding even more to the Lib Dems’ misery.

Overnight comes news that the party first and only MP, Caroline Lucas, is standing aside as leader so that the party leadership can be used as a vehicle to boost the profile of other potential Green MPs.

This is part of a big strategy to exploit the opportunity created by the Lib Dem collapse to become the alternative force to Labour and the Tories.

If they are successful it could impact on Labour’s hopes of attracting and retaining disgruntled Lib Dems.

The Greens have a strong local base in several areas on which they can build. Caroline’s victory at the General Election followed years of on the ground activity in Brighton and a council base.

Although they have two MEPs all the media focus has been on Caroline. If they can build her successor as leader into a big figure then the chances of further Westminster gains must be strong.

All this contrasts with the electoral novices at UKIP who have been unable to capitalise on their poll ratings.

In 2010 I did very nicely out of Lucas’s victory at Brighton Pavilion winning bets both on the seat and whether the party would secure its first MP. Maybe 2015 will see the total doubled or even trebled?

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Should the party ignore the activist base?

The subject of gay marriage has come to the fore in both the US and in the UK, In the former last week electors in North Carolina voted to amend the state constitution to ban it. A day later Barack Obama said that he was in favour.

Here in the UK it’s been a issue particularly within the Tory party and this morning Philip Hammond was on the Marr show expressing his reservations.

But have the blues got this right?

Is it wise to oppose something that, according to today’s YouGov poll, is backed by 51% of voters with 35% against?

The chart above shows Tory voters opposed by 47% to 35%. Supporters of their coalition partners, the LDs take a very different view with 66% supporting and just 20% opposing. Labour are split 62% support to 28% oppose.

What we don’t know is whether this is an issue that impacts on voting. The anti-gay stance of the blues in 2000 led to one prominent Tory MP, Shaun Woodward, defecting to Labour thus creating a vacancy in the solid Tory seat of Witney. He was replaced by one David Cameron.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Ed Miliband overtakes Cameron in YouGov’s leader ratings. He’s on 32% WELL/55% BADLY to Cameron’s 32%/61%. So Ed’s net is -23% to Dave’s -29

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012

LATEST YouGov voting – 31/43/10 with UKIP on 8. Labour maintaining a solid double digit lead.. The LDs up from their low of 7% on Thu to 10

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012

EdM’s net YouGov leader ratings lead of 6% over Dave his best ever position

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012

Ed getting big YouGov boost from LAB voters. 67% say he’s doing well compared with 57% last week &ratings <50% earlier in year

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012

Just 26% tell YouGov that Cameron is a “strong leader” against 40% saying weak. In March it was 37% strong to 30% weak,

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 13, 2012

Are LAB voters now getting behind their leader?

The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is now out and has good news for the LAB leader Ed Miliband.

His net position of minus 23% is six points better than Dave’s and puts him in his best ever position in relation to the prime minister.

Key to the big change in the number is a significant increase in the number of LAB voters ready to say that their leader is “doing well”.

Earlier in the year this dropped below the 50% mark. A week ago it was on 57%. This is now 67% representing a big turnaround.

If this is maintained and seen in other polling it will surely, banish the suggestions that Ed might be pressured to step down before the general election.

The voting intention numbers continue the pattern we have seen with, yet again, another solid double digit lead for Labour.

The 6/4 from Ladbrokes that Ed Will be PM before 2020 starts to look like a good bet.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Will the Euro still exist at the end of 2015?

William Hill have reopened their market on which will be the first country to quit the Eurozone – and although Greece remain hot favourites at 1/4, Spain have been slashed from 12/1 to 7/1 third favourite.

‘We suspended the market earlier in the week when punters only wanted to back Greece but with the financial crisis escalating in Spain and the possibility of another Greek election we have decided to re-open the market’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

The latest odds suggest that punters believe that Greece will be the first country to leave the Euro, with William Hill offering 1/4 that they are whilst Italy are 5/1. Despite Francois Hollande’s victory, France are 20/1 outsiders to be the first to go.

In another market the the view of punters suggests that the Euro itself will still be a currency, at least until the end of 2015, said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams.

Euro To Still be A Currency by 31st Dec 2015 Hills are offering 4/6 Still In Place to 11/10 Euro NO Longer A Currency.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Is he set to become the 4th cabinet casualty?

Rebekah Brooks’ testimony to the Leveson enquiry didn’t produce a smoking gun but will not have been at all comfortable listening for Jeremy Hunt. In particular, the e-mail from Hunt’s advisor looks at best like a private office out of control and gives the suggestion of indirect but improper ministerial contact with News International.

However, it is just suggestion rather than established fact and as such we’re into the good old game of a media and opposition minister-hunt. The questions, as always, are these: how bad are the allegations, how well can they be made to stick, and does the story have legs?

Of themselves, the allegations are not yet a resignation matter.

They would only become so if they could be firmed up by directly linking the contact between his advisors and News International to Hunt himself, both because of the substance that would bring and because it would throw his denial of involvement into the realms of cover-up.

That lack of evidence also undermines any attempts to make the current allegations stick. While the episode doesn’t look or sound good, Hunt is not the central character in the drama and so there again, he isn’t in the direct firing line. Minister-hunts are successful when the allegations against the minister in question can be readily summed up in a few words. From what we know at the moment, this can’t.

Finally, does the story have legs? That’s hard to say as it depends what else might come out. Leveson will of course continue but as the enquiry shifts focus, so the pressure goes from Hunt. For Hunt to remain in the spotlight, more has to come out about these contacts. This weekend’s papers are crucial in that respect. By Monday, the momentum will have gone from the story if today’s hearing can’t be followed up with something new.

The value when ministers come under pressure to quit is to back them to go as the story builds then lay off, one way or another. The odds usually overshoot significantly and plenty of odds-on candidates for departure stay in post; prime ministers aren’t keen on losing their colleagues, either to the demands of the opposition or because of a perceived media storm. For one thing, it sets a precedent they can do little to control.

Chances are then that Hunt will survive, at least for now. Whether he lasts beyond the cabinet reshuffle may be an entirely different thing.

David Herdson

Holiday arrangements starting a week on Monday

I’ve going to be away Andalucia for two and half weeks and won’t be taking my lap-top though I will still have my tablet and phone.

Unlike previous holidays there will be no stand-in editor. We have found that it is just too big a task for someone who also has to work.

The site will still operate driven mostly by continuation threads and things that have been set up in advance.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Recent Threads

We now make it 5/6 that David Cameron says ‘lol’ at least once during PMQs this year #LOLgate #camerontexts

— Ladbrokes (@LadbrokesNews) May 11, 2012

You wait till the Prime Minister finds out what MILF means….

— Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) May 11, 2012

The Moggster’s verdict re LOL. Jacob Rees-Mogg: “I would have thought he’d sign off yours sincerely, but never mind.” bit.ly/JERI9o

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 11, 2012

#leveson Not too charmed by RB’s feisty, winning ways, we hope,@moreysue (et al), but we can see why Rupe took such a shine to her, yes?

— MichaelWhite (@MichaelWhite) May 11, 2012

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the appearance by Rebekah Brooks before Leveson but I’m not sure that, so far, we have learned that much beyond that Dave, apparently, thought that LOL on a text means “lots of love”.

Those who were saying that this week’s appearances were going to be defining moments are going to be disappointed. Coulson coped well yesterday and Brooks has today. It’s interesting but not really significant so far.

Where this takes us is hard to say. The most significant development this week has been Leveson’s refusal to get involved in the Jeremy Hunt business.

The delaying tactic won’t work. Dave is going to have to decide himself how to take this forward.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Has it all been a terrible mistake?

Today’s my 66th birthday and, as no doubt it will be hard to avoid today, the second anniversary of that Tuesday in May 2010 when Gordon Brown, Sarah and his two children left Number 10 for the last time as PM.

It is also the second anniversary of Dave as prime minister and, of course, the creation of what all seemed so positive then, the coalition.

Looking back to those heady days I wonder just how much all parties were spooked by Gordon and the worry that even though he had just lost the election he might try to remain at Number 10?

Was it that reason why Cameron made the offer to talks to the Lib Dems rather than just waiting so he could seek to run a Tory minority government?

It would have been better, it is arguable, for both the Tories and LDs if the arrangement with the yellows had just been for supply and confidence?

Cameron would have then gone to the country in the following 12 months in the hope of winning a majority.

We are where we are. I am coming to the view that the coalition was a mistake but Nick Clegg had little alternative when the offer was put on the table. If it had been rebuffed then the party would have been seen by the world as not being interested in power.

So year two is over – will it get to year five? Possibly.

@MikeSmithsonOGH