When it comes to Scottish polling one important caveat is often missed and that is that soon the SNP will be soon be entering their eighteenth year of being in power at Holyrood.
Given that context I think Yousaf’s and the SNP’s polling isn’t that bad, Sunak and the Tories would love to have that kind of polling figures GB wide and while Jim Murphy’s post might be funny it masks the fact that during 2024 the SNP have been ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intention polls.
This is why I am not convinced it will be Ajockalypse Now for the SNP at the general election.
TSE
]]>I suspect this story about Angela Rayner is Currygate Mark II which rather got Tory partisans and Starmer critics rather excited but with the locals coming up this is a distraction Labour could do without.
The one thing that is different is that the Dan Neidle is querying some of Angela Rayner’s assertions which should worry her. Mr Neidle is the last person I would want getting involved in my tax affairs.
TSE
]]>The great contradiction of British politics today is the Tories talking about cracking down on small numbers of illegal immigration yet consistently delivering record breaking legal immigration, this polling captures that and why Sunak is in a bit of pickle.
TSE
]]>If deputy political editor of ITV news is right there is massive value in backing June, and/or July, August as the month of the general election. I still think an autumn election is where we are headed but I am now having a nibble at these prices.
I am not the only one to note that Sunak might be approaching a breaking point and wants out, this fits that thesis.
TSE
]]>I think any political party that tries to change/end the triple lock will see a response to Mrs May’s dementia tax.
TSE
]]>Whilst they weren’t cabinet ministers I do think Tim Montgomerie may have a point, the appointment of Jonathan Gullis screams like a cry for help from Sunak. It is already annoying Tory MPs which is not what you need when you could soon be facing a confidence vote.
I don’t wish to be cruel nor unkind but nothing sums up the failing education system than the fact that quite recently Jonathan Gullis was a teacher in our state schools.
TSE
]]>My initial reaction to this screw up by the Tories was to laugh at their incompetence but unfortunately I am really annoyed by one thing in this ad and it is just one word. The ad says Sadiq Khan seized power in London.
Nope, he took power via an election then was re-elected. The word seized is the sort of the language you’d expect from the MAGA Republican party targeting a non white mayor. If the Tories want a long spell in opposition and cement their title of the nasty party this is the way to go, it’s not far removed from the language of Lee Anderson. The fact Susan Hall has denied any involvement with the ad tells you how toxic it is.
The reality is that Rishi Sunak is the one who effectively seized power as he was unelected and some of Boris Johnson’s allies consider Sunak the greatest usurper in this country since Henry IV.
TSE
]]>The above findings appear to confirm the maxim that oppositions do not win elections but governments lose them.
What strikes me is the lack of enthusiasm for Starmer and Labour might have some betting implications in so far it might lead to a Labour victory but not the massive landslide victory the voting intention polls indicate but a more modest majority.
TSE
]]>With a May general election a non starter and Scott Benton accelerating the process it appears we will have another by-election soon on the English Riviera that is Blackpool.
I cannot see anything other than a thumping Labour victory. The only question is can Reform finish ahead of the Tories?
TSE
]]>With every passing day I see more polling that makes me think that outcome of the next general election will make 1997 look like a good a result for the Tories when compared to GE2024.
The latest finding is from YouGov and that the Tories are in third place behind Labour and Reform when it comes to male voters.
Sunak and the Tories must hope this YouGov finding is a transitory blip and not a harbinger of a trend that is replicated at the election, if it is replicated at the election then we will be talking about the extirpation of the Tory party.
TSE
]]>I am working on the assumption that the Scottish Greens will stand down in most Scottish constituencies as not to split the secessionist vote (in 2019 they stood in 22 out of 59 Scottish constituencies) but in England & Wales I expect the Greens to put up something similar to the 472 candidates they stood in 2019 so there will be plenty of opportunities to vote Green but will they vote Green at the election?
I think with the unpopularity of the Tories the Greens will get squeezed during the campaign which may well be suboptimal for the Tories. with Caroline Lucas standing down I do expect the Greens to win zero seats. Smarkets have odds on that. I am not sure I fancy tying up my money for that small a return.
TSE
]]>If Sir Simon Clarke is correct then we could see a vote of confidence in Sunak very soon (which I expect him to win).
One of the factors that should help Sunak survive is this poll from Opinium which shows the Tories are going to be experience their own Battle of Adrianople at the next general election no matter who leads them with only Penny Mordaunt achieving a better result than Sunak.
This poll also confirms that if the Tories want a long spell in opposition they should choose one of the gruesome twosome that are Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch.
It is a pity that Opinium didn’t ask how the Tories would do under Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, and the Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton at the next election.
Smarkets have a market on whether Sunak will face a confidence vote before the next general election but there’s only been £12 traded there.
TSE
Edit – Thanks to MikeL for pointing out there is a liquid Betfair market on whether Sunak faces a confidence vote before the election. If Sir Simon Clarke is right there’s plenty of value backing Yes at 3.75 at current prices. The marker can be accessed by clicking here.
]]>These focus groups has come up with a fantastic analogy.
For some of these former Conservatives, the paradoxical appeal of a change of government was stability: “If the Tories did get back in they’d go for a new leader and then it will be catastrophe all over again. So as much as I’m not really a Labour supporter, I feel a change of government would stabilise things;”
“It feels like we’ve got alcoholic parents. Everything’s crazy and then the next morning it’s suddenly sorry and let’s go and feed the ducks. It’s not secure enough. You can’t help but love your alcoholic parents but you might want to go and live with your auntie for a bit.”
TSE
]]>When a cult takes over a political party there is a tendency to tell existing supporters to go and vote for somebody else, we saw this with some Corbynites which explains why Corbyn lost two general elections in a row.
Seeing the clip above did bring back some memories but from a betting point of view it might be time to start thinking about laying the GOP taking back control of the Senate in November.
So there’s three main reasons I can see how the GOP screw this up the Senate elections
For point 3 see this Tweet
Betfair have a market on the Senate control but there’s next to no liquidity, click here to view that market.
TSE
]]>On Tuesday I wrote about Sunak’s latest plan which involved Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election which would allow Sunak to get out of jail, I remain doubtful of such hopes and today’s Savanta poll reinforces those doubts and the Betfair market seems to think it is a done deal for Khan as do I.
Chris Hopkins of Savanta has written a thread on why Khan’s lead may not as be as impressive as it first seems.
TSE
]]>It seems these days every days seems to bring a new poll showing Sunak and the Tories hitting new lows that may rival the ratings of Liz Truss, the UK’s shortest serving Prime Minister.
There’s two points to consider, firstly if the Tories and Sunak remain this unpopular then the polls may be underestimating them when tactical voting is considered, because my view is the higher the unpopularity the more anti-Tory tactical voting will take place.
Secondly, if the polls keep going in this direction then Sunak will face a tipping point where Tory MPs consider a tub of lard or a lettuce will do better at the polls than Sunak no matter how ridiculous the Tory party looks by having its third unelected PM in this parliament.
TSE
]]>
Today marks the 20th birthday of Politicalbetting and also my retirement from the site.
I had hoped to stay with the site till the general election and the American presidential vote in the November
Unfortunately my health is deteriorating and I have been doing far less on PB.
Our site is probably one of the oldest political sites on the internet and we were founded before Guido Conservative home and so on.
Thank you to all of you,
It has been an enormous pleasure running the site for all these years and also meeting many of those who regularly post here.
Thanks in particular to TSE and my son Robert for continuing to keep PB going.
Mike Smithson
]]>I think the Telegraph are reading too much into Penny Mordaunt’s (lack of) comments. However this is a febrile time with today’s YouGov poll showing the Tories hitting Truss levels of support and a mere 4% ahead of Reform, crossover between the possible is a possibility in the near future.
If that does happen with Reform ahead of the Tories in the polls then the bowels of the Parliamentary Tory Party will loosen and the result will be an internal Blitzkrieg with their lower intestines playing the part of France and the Low Countries. It will be fun to watch if it happens.
TSE
]]>This analysis is required reading for anybody who thinks sticking the Reform share of the vote (or a large percentage of that vote) to the Tory share of the vore is what will happen at the general election.
I suspect Sunak’s wooing of these voters will also not be effective.
TSE
]]>If there’s one group in this country I absolutely wish would disappear from British politics and it is NIMBYs who seem to be a part of every major political party.
The country wants more houses built, the foundation of Mrs Thatcher’s policies was helping the lower classes to own their homes. The Tories have had fourteen years to fix the housing crisis and barely scratched the surface.
I can only hope a Starmer led government can fix the issues and build more homes, I hope he crushes the NIMBYs, Tories should hope he does as well as I strongly believe that becoming a home owners begets Tory voters.
TSE
]]>At the last election turnout was 67.3% and I might expect turnout to be higher at this election as voters mobilise to get the Tories out but I suspect turnout will be lower due to voting ID requirements change. After last year’s locals, Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted those changes were a gerrymander aka voter suppression.
Rees-Mogg admitted “Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as, dare I say, we found by insisting on voter ID for elections….We found the people who didn’t have ID were elderly and they, by and large, voted Conservative, so we made it hard for our own voters and we upset a system that worked perfectly well.”
Additionally if the polls on election day have Labour with a similar lead to today’s polls then some voters may also decide not to turn up and vote as the result is a foregone conclusion, plus a campaign featuring Sunak and Starmer isn’t likely to inspire voters to go out and vote.
You can find the Betfair market on turnout here.
TSE
]]>It seems an unelected head of state is in effect damaging democracy by restricting the dates Sunak can hold an election by being out of the country.
But one thing is clear, as has been for a long time, no May election.
TSE
]]>I am really starting to worry about Rishi Sunak on a personal level, he is utterly deluded if he thinks Susan Hall can win the London mayoralty and help Sunak win the general election.
This is a bunker mentality, Sunak is investing a lot of hope, like a former Chancellor of Germany did with Felix Steiner during the Battle for Berlin, and Hall’s victory will save him from the man of steel Sir Keir Starmer’s oncoming Red Army.
Bunker mentalities do not end well, I suspect if Sunak tries to remain in the bunker the parliamentary party may drag him out of there very soon.
TSE
]]>The brain fart by Donald Trump isn’t the first one this campaign from the Ayrshire hotelier and I wonder if it will make him less effective this campaign, the man who came up with insults like little Marco Rubio etc doesn’t have that power. It also makes any criticisms against Biden less effective.
More troubling for ‘Billionaire’ Trump is legal difficulties have in a phrase that gets used a lot in Yorkshire left Trump without a pot to piss in. Many of us have noted this will and has caused him problems in his election campaign.
But at least Biden’s choice of footwear might swing the election.
TSE
]]>TSE
]]>Occasionally you’ll get a poll finding that says either a lot about the client/pollster that commissioned it or says a lot about the Great British public, this questions hits both those sweet spots.
There’s four main issues that have bugged me/got me thinking
TSE
]]>Picture: This man could hurt the Tories badly
How can the Tories now simultaneously appeal to both the Blue Wall and the Red Wall?
The Sunday Times are reporting some interesting snippets about the Tories and Reform
[Sunak’s election chief Isaac] Levido’s team is anxiously watching Reform’s polling numbers and wondering whether Nigel Farage will return to lead the party. His former pollster, Chris Bruni-Lowe, has told him that if he comes back then Reform, currently polling in the mid-teens, would overtake the Tories, who are in the low twenties, “within 48 hours”.
Farage, already Reform’s honorary president, said he has still not decided what to do, balancing his desire to break the mould of politics against the difficulty of winning seats. He said Ukip’s performance in 2015, when it secured four million votes but just one seat, “haunts me”…
…The problem for Sunak is that while his right flank is exposed to Reform, new polling today by More in Common suggests that the policies Downing Street is using to woo the red-wall voters switching to Reform, such as deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda, is alienating the once solid blue-wall Tory heartlands and reviving the Conservatives’ reputation as the “nasty party”.
More in Common polled 39 seats in the blue wall — seats where the Tories beat Labour by between 20 per cent and 51 per cent in 2019. With Labour now polling on average a point ahead of the Conservatives there, half those seats would fall to Sir Keir Starmer on a uniform swing. But the survey found that if one in four people there voted tactically, the Tories would lose 27 of them.
By large margins, voters regard Conservatives as more “uncaring” and “divided” than Labour. While 41 per cent of blue wall voters think the Tories “too right-wing”, only 32 per cent think Labour “too left-wing”.
I suspect there is no Tory who can currently straddle the Red/Blue Wall divide either before the election or after it. What appeals to one puts off the other wall, Sunak nor Mordaunt nor King Solomon have the wisdom to solve this paradox.
I cannot see how the Tories can unite the Red Wall and the Blue Wall over the next few years, getting Brexit done and stopping Jeremy Corbyn are no longer issues that concern voters and Sir Keir Starmer isn’t a bogeyman to frighten people into voting Tory unlike Corbyn. The only unity is that both walls want to ditch the Tories.
TSE
]]>Both the Telegraph and the Mail are reporting on a plan to install Penny Mordaunt as Prime Minister which has at least underlying logic behind it. As we can see from the latest Ashcroft polling she’s the only Tory who is seen as net asset rather than a net liability.
Those deluded* Boris Johnson fans, yes I am looking at the likes of you Nadine Dorries and Dame Andrea Jenkyns, who thought he could make a comeback before the election can see their hero is doing rather badly on the net liability front, even worse than the Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton which must sting for Boris Johnson. This is even before we come to the problem of Boris Johnson of not being a MP.
I am a fan of Penny Mordaunt, she has impeccable judgment, such as following me on Twitter, and what’s not to love about a politician who can deliver speeches like this to the Commons? She does human in a way Sunak or most other politicians cannot.
I thought the Tories wouldn’t be stupid enough to impose a third consecutive mandateless Prime Minister this parliament but I think the polling might just persuade them to do so.
At the time of writing, which was circa 8 am today, you can get 4/1 with Ladbrokes on Rishi Sunak not to be Tory leader at the election (and 1/7 on the other side of that market), you can get 3/1 and 1/4 respectively on Betfair, I think there could be a smidgen of value on the 4/1.
TSE
*Other more robust adjectives are available
]]>“Our priority is to stop the boats, which is why we have taken robust action to crack down on vile people smuggling gangs, deter migrants from making dangerous crossings and, alongside our French counterparts, intercept vessels.
“This relentless action reduced crossings by 36% last year, despite numbers soaring by 80% in the Mediterranean, and more than 26,000 attempts were prevented.” UK Home Office, 8th March 2024.
Barely a day goes by without news of some new Government initiative to Stop the Boats. It has become one of the Government’s most totemic issues. Rwanda, offshore processing, joint operations with the French. And all for, what, a few thousand people who make no difference to the overall immigration numbers and are mostly successful in their asylum claims. Why on earth is the government so worried. We don’t get similar headlines about people coming here illegally or as asylum seekers via other routes.
For nearly 20 years UK and other Member State citizens had the fundamental right to move and reside freely, and, subject to certain conditions, to live anywhere within the EU. And many took up this right, coming here to live and work. Following the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, when Freedom of Movement, or Free Movement was introduced, annual net migration to the UK, 77,000 in 1994, rose to 250,000 by 2004.
For some this was too many and famously, in 2010, David Cameron promised he would bring the number down to “tens of thousands” should the Conservatives be elected. Net migration was then over 200,000 per year and this was “too high”, he said. But as a Member State with Free Movement enshrined in law, the UK was unable to do anything much about immigration from the EU, so the numbers continued virtually unchanged. We had no control.
Fast forward to the EU referendum, where the clarion call of Vote Leave was for us to “Take Back Control”. In his poll following the vote, Lord Ashcroft found that a third of those who had voted leave did so on account of immigration. Or rather, they thought that “voting to leave offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders” (my italics). The concept of control was central to the campaign, and the public mood.
It was clear to me that Leave would win when Nick Herbert, who was leading the Conservative Remain effort, was asked by Kate Hoey what the UK could do to stop immigrants from the EU coming here now or in the future if we were still members. He had no answer; it was all over. Simply, we had no control while we were EU members, and EU immigrants would and could keep coming. And the British public didn’t like this, so we voted to take back control and Free Movement ended on 31st December 2020.
But the increase in net migration certainly didn’t end. If anything, it gained pace.
For the year ending June 2023 net migration was 670,000 (numbers subject to revision), contributing to a 1% increase in the overall population of the England and Wales, with the vast majority of those wanting to make their homes here coming from outside the EU, even allowing for the numbers coming from Ukraine and Hong Kong. They came to work (30%) to study (40%) and as dependents.
In short, when it comes to the huge numbers of people coming to this country, it has been situation: no change.
But how can this be when we have a Brexit-focused Conservative Government with a huge majority in power and fully a third of Leave voters had cited immigration as an important factor in their vote. Well, it appears that as a nation we like high immigration. That, surely, is the only rational explanation. Because if we didn’t like it, we, as a sovereign nation, would put an end to it. Just as we eventually Brexited.
So how do we square this evident love of immigration, with the Government’s mania to try to “Stop the Boats”. The answer is it’s nothing to do with immigration (although there is an element of performative pandering to Party’s extreme wing). The clue is in that Lord Ashcroft poll finding – “voting to leave [offers] the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders”.
It continues to be all about control. The UK doesn’t mind immigration, just look at the numbers. But it really, really doesn’t like to be out of control. And that is why The Boats are so important for the Government. When the public sees that there is no control over this well-publicised element of our lives, it is reminded of what else the Government is failing at. Such as the economy, or the health service, or education.
The Government, meanwhile, has seen what happens when the public believes a ruling party has no control in this area and calculates that if it can take back control of The Boats it will inspire the trust of the voters for it to take back control over other policy areas and, who knows, perhaps even parliament itself come the next General Election.
Topping
]]>George Galloway is considering standing against Andy Burnham, the Manchester Evening News can reveal. The new Rochdale MP who won a by-election two weeks ago is now looking at running to be Greater Manchester’s mayor.
Returning to Parliament for a seventh time following his by-election win, Mr Galloway took aim at the Labour mayor in his first speech back in the House of Commons. He has put Labour ‘on notice’, threatening to wipe them off the local council and promising to field candidates for Parliament across the country – including in Greater Manchester.
He is now thinking about entering the race to become Greater Manchester’s mayor in May. He has told the M.E.N. that if he stands for mayor, he would run on a platform of getting a ‘better deal’ for the city’s surrounding towns.
Unlike the general election the mayoral election is held May 2nd this year so Galloway is cutting it fine to stand.
I cannot see any betting markets on this mayoral race but my instinct would be to back Burnham in this market as I cannot see Galloway winning Greater Manchester as the demographics aren’t as Galloway friendly as Rochdale.
I suspect he won’t run because if he wins the mayoralty he would be forced to step down as an MP as you cannot be both an MP and Mayor of Greater Manchester then he has the chutzpah to quit being an MP after few weeks.
TSE
]]>Last night Sunak ruled out something most of us realised was unlikely, a May election. I think the election will be in September to December of this year, although I am entertaining the thought that the Tories will hold the election in January 2025 in the hope something turns up by then to save them.
TSE
]]>These poll findings aren’t surprising, Hamas undoubtedly committed war crimes and Israel’s response seems to be seen as disproportionate as it appears Israel is repeatedly shelling and mass displacement of innocent civilians for months on end.
I remain of the opinion that events in the Middle East will have no meaningful impact on the UK general election however if things do not change in the Middle East it could cause problems for both major parties in a handful of seats.
TSE
]]>What a lot of Boris Johnson fans seem to forget or ignore is that it wasn’t lockdown parties, Brexit, or centerists Dads who ousted Boris Johnson, it was Boris Johnson lying about knowingly promoted a known sexual predator in a position of authority and then getting his ministers to unknowingly repeat that lie publicly.
People do not like being made to look like idiots particularly on serious matters like sexual misconduct or racism. The way Tories spent the early part of the week defending Frank Hester before Sunak decided actually Hester’s comments were racist have annoyed plenty of Tories and this is worrying for Sunak.
I expect after May’s locals is when Sunak will be at maximum risk when the Tories get spanked at the local elections with Tory councillors set to play the role of the troops at Gallipoli under First Sea Lord Sunak.
TSE
]]>Rishi Sunak must feel like the late lamented The Notorious B.I.G. who sang ‘Mo’ money mo’ problems’ after Frank Hester’s repugnant comments about Diane Abbott.
If Sunak was to match his rhetoric on extremism with actions then he would return the £10 million donation from Frank Hester and wouldn’t have prevaricated for so long before calling Hester’s words for the racist poison they were.
The reality is that in an election year the Tories are in no place to return the £10 million pounds unless they really want to end up with fewer MPs than the Greens but others have said they will stop their donations.
The voters have decided that Hester’s words were racist including most 2019 Tory voters, and 52% of voters want the money returned. This is another example of Sunak’s political antennae being poor and damaging the Tories.
TSE
]]>Overnight it was confirmed that Ayrshire hotelier Donald Trump will take on President Biden in November’s presidential election, the key thing that stood out for me was the result in Georgia, a state critical to the outcome of the last election. It fits in with my theory that there is an enthusiam gap for Trump which if continues until election day will see him lose in November.
TSE
]]>