http://politicalbetting.com The web's premier resource for political betting. Wed, 14 May 2008 21:33:56 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en Time Magazine's Mark Halperin is predicting a big announcement tonight. Could it be that John Edwards has come off the fence and is going to endorse Barack? Or could this be the start of something bigger - an Obama-Edwards ticket? The website Political Insider is making a strong case for Edwards ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/14/is-it-going-to-be-an-obama-edwards-ticket/ Could Miss Great Britain affect the by election outcome? One of the "other" candidates who might have an impact on Crewe and Nantwich is Gemma Garrett - Miss Great Britain. On the face of it the move seems like a PR stunt designed to boost her profile but, to her credit, ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/14/whos-going-to-lose-votes-to-gemma-in-cn/ Surely it's time for the curtain to close on the Dimbleby era? Just under a fortnight ago I had a rant about the woeful inadequacies of the BBC's election coverage and many others have joined the criticism. The antics of Jeremy Vine have been the main focus but these were singled ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/14/should-andrew-neil-be-the-bbcs-main-political-anchor/ C&N punters mount their own U-turn Yesterday evening, less than two hours after Darling's commons statement on the tax U-turn I published a chart here under the headline "Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting". This has been picked up in the media and on a number of other ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/14/the-by-election-betting-the-morning-after/ But do these final primaries matter at all? After her expected huge victory in the predominantly white working class state of West Virginia Hillary Clinton was in upbeat mood overnight and made it clear that she is still striving to become the next president. This is her biggest ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/14/so-the-democratic-race-goes-on/ ..Or have we passed the game-changing moment? Another Tuesday evening and another primary in the race for the Democratic nomination. This time it's in West Virginia which decides the fate of 28 delegates. The state's demographics look good for former First Lady and it's possible that she could finish up in ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/13/can-west-virginia-do-anything-to-the-dem-race/ Could the revised tax plan stem the Tory surge? The chart shows the changes in the Labour betting price for Crewe and Nantwich, expressed as an implied probability, during a day which has seen the government trying to get out of the hole it has dug itself into over the 10% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/13/darling-gives-labour-a-boost-in-the-crewe-betting/ Dealing with the ex-Labour supporters who said they "didn't know" At last! We now have the full data from the ICM Crewe and Nantwich by-election poll and I have reproduced the most interesting feature above - how the original numbers produced a 12% lead with the Tories on 47% and ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/13/how-a-tory-12-crewe-lead-became-4/ crewe.tv This could be a good strategy to get the vote out? Labour's core strategy in Crewe and Nantwich to portray their main opponent as a "Tory Toff" has attracted a lot of criticism and has even proved a bit too rich for some contributors to LabourHome. The sight, as above, of ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/13/dont-write-off-labours-toff-attacks/ Is Boris's "goodbye" a sign that the writ is about to be issued? The above has just gone on the Henley Standard website and suggests that the Tories are going to waste no time in setting the processes in train for an early by election to replace Boris Johnson. The piece ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/12/is-the-henley-by-election-being-planned-for-june/ Is this the most likely "end-game" scenario? Whenever the question of the manner of Gordon's eventual departure is discussed three different possibilities are raised: that he'll go after leading Labour to an inglorious defeat at the hands of David Cameron; that he'll be ousted in a bloody coup; or that he ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/12/could-gord-step-down-voluntarily/ crewe.tv Does pre-election polling help squeeze out the third party? The main reason why I have been so confident in my Crewe and Nantwich predictions is the impact that yesterday's ICM by election poll will have on voting dynamics, particularly in taking the wind out of the Lib Dems' standard strategy. For ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/12/has-icm-completely-ruined-nicks-first-by-election/ All Change in Russia – But No Change At All Balakirev considers the Putin-Medvedev handover After a week in Russia where reminders of past Soviet and pre-Soviet glories were much in evidence, clues to the future under Dimitri Medvedev and Vladimir Putin are still hard to find. Medvedev was sworn in at ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/11/double-carpet-on-sunday-3/ Edward Timpson - Conservative - 796 views Elizabeth Shenton - Liberal Democrat 469 views Tamsin Dunwoody - Labour - 181 views Where candidates have more than one video on YouTube I have taken the one with the most views. Mike Smithson http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/11/whose-winning-the-cn-youtube-war/ Mail on Sunday My assessment: the Tories have a 90% chance of winning We've now got more information about the Mail on Sunday's ICM poll on the Crewe and Nantwich by election and it's clear that the situation is even worse for Labour than was being reported last night. The panel above ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/11/is-this-really-hapening-in-tory-target-seat-165/ But how much can we trust single constituency polls? According to Iain Dale an ICM poll of 1000 voters in Crewe & Nantwich is suggesting that the Tories are on target for their first by-election gain since 1982. The figures are:- CON 43% Lab 39%: LD 16% Clearly this is a very ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/10/icm-poll-has-tories-4-ahead-in-crewe-nantwich/    Picture of Obama rally in Portland by Photoscott    Does Clinton stand a chance of winning Oregon? Following her triumph in Pennsylvania on the 22nd April and an effective tie in Guam on May 3rd, but having suffered difficult headlines since last Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina, Hillary Clinton will need ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/10/is-oregon-a-certain-win-for-obama/ Are Labour's chances as bad as the media is suggesting? This weekend hundreds and maybe thousands of activists from the main parties will be heading to Crewe and Nantwich for a big couple of days of campaigning ahead of the critical by election a week on Thursday. The weather's good, the ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/10/what-are-your-stories-from-crewe-and-nantwich/ Local Election Round Up Last week’s local elections were Labour’s worst since 1976/1977. The Party finished up 20% behind the Conservatives, in terms of projected national vote share, and suffered a net loss of 334 seats, from a low base. Taking into account some Labour gains, against ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/09/sean-fears-friday-slot-52/ A 24 seat shift to Cameron's party in just ten days The spread firm, SportingIndex, has just put up its new general election commons seats spreads following the YouGov poll overnight suggesting that Labour are on just 23% - a massive 26% behind. When we last looked at this, a week last ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/09/spread-markets-point-to-a-tory-majority-of-40/ Has the Sun switched from MORI following the Mayoral outcome? A key thing that polling does, apart from to give some idea about the outcome of a future general election, is to help create the environment in which the political process operates. As we have seen so often the pressure on ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/09/will-there-be-many-more-regular-yougov-polls/ Appalling news for Labour from the pollster that got Boris-Ken right In what is perhaps the most sensational opinion poll for decades the pollster that got the London Mayoral election spot on, YouGov is tonight reporting a 26% lead for the Conservatives. The shares are CON 49%: LAB 23%: LD 17% The ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/08/yougov-reports-a-26-tory-lead/ The main political story on ABC News this afternoon is that "..intermediaries" have resumed discussing the possibility of an Obama-Clinton "dream team" ticket...". A former top Bill Clinton aide and now ABC News' chief Washington correspondent, George Stephanopolous, said: "I think it's very much a possibility and there are others around ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/08/abc-news-says-dream-ticket-under-discussion/ Is this the woman who could turn Labour's fortunes around? I don't claim to understand the intricacies of Labour party internal politics but after pondering over the past few days I have come up with a couple of names of people I believe could turn round voters views of the party ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/08/would-tessa-give-cameron-a-run-for-his-money/ Could clearing her massive campaign debts be part of a deal? In the aftermath of the Tuesday's primaries speculation has started on how the Obama-Clinton contest might end and whether we could see a negotiated deal between the two of them. An experienced political operator who has been involved in such ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/08/what-could-hillary-demand-for-giving-up/ Is a Tory victory a near certainty? Ever since the betting markets opened on the Crewe and Nantwich by election all the money has been going one way. Ladbrokes opened with a 4/5 Tory price which then went to 4/7 and is now at 1/2. Betfair has seen a big rush to ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/07/are-punters-right-about-crewe-nantwich/ Is it time to start using our White House race logo? With Obama's decisive victory in North Carolina and Hillary's victory in Indiana being by a fraction it's starting to look as though the marathon fight for the Democratic nomination is nearing its end. As Obama spinners were saying overnight - ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/07/can-we-now-airbrush-hillary-out-of-the-picture/          Will this be over before the Convention in Denver? If the Superdelegates are reluctant to  finish this race before the final states, Montana and South Dakota, have their say on June 3rd, then it seems likely that Clinton has almost another month in this race. She will almost certainly lose on pledged ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/07/how-much-longer-will-this-continue/ Indiana - 44% counted - Clinton leads 56-44 North Carolina - called for Obama, leads 64-34, 11% counted http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/07/obama-takes-nc-hillary-leads-in-in/ Populus reports its biggest ever Tory lead The May Populus survey for the Times is out this evening and shows a small increase in the Tory lead compared with what the firm reported a fortnight ago. The figures are with changes on that survey - CON 40%(nc): LAB 29%(-1): LD 19%(nc). So ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/06/gordons-poll-misery-goes-on/ Mayor Competition Results - how did you do? Congratulations to Andy Cooke, one of pb's leading analysts and number-crunchers, on a clear victory in the PB London Mayor prediction competition. Andy's overall score was just 5.07 and he also had the best first preference score of 4.59. Richard Stoneman was runner-up ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/06/double-carpet-on-tuesday/ What do you think of the recent market moves? I have just three positions on the Democratic race. One my 50/1 and 33/1 long-shot bets from 2005 and 2006 that Barack will go all the way. Two bets at an average of 5/1 that Hillary will get the nomination Three bets on her ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/06/have-you-got-money-on-the-hillary-bounce-back/ Some depressing words for Labour supporters in Polly Toynbee's Tuesday Guardian column this morning. After having this to say about May 22nd "..for the Conservatives are no longer the stupid party. Watch them win the Crewe and Nantwich byelection, easy..." she goes on:- "...It is Labour that has become the stupid party ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/06/is-polly-right-labours-now-the-stupid-party/ How will the prices look on Wednesday? I'm just arrived in the Peak District to celebrate my Boris winnings on a short break. Tomorrow is, of course, the next mega-round of primary battles. Paul Maggs will once again be in the guest editor slot, assisted by Morus. Mike Smithson http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/05/its-indiana-and-north-carolina-tomorrow/ One thing that Friday's London mayoral result showed was that I term "The Golden Rule of British Polling" still applied. For based on the results of the last four general elections and all three London Mayoral races the most accurate poll has always been the one showing Labour (Ken in ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/05/introducing-the-golden-rule-seat-predictions/