Ayrshire hotelier wins the GOP nomination

Ayrshire hotelier wins the GOP nomination

Overnight it was confirmed that Ayrshire hotelier Donald Trump will take on President Biden in November’s presidential election, the key thing that stood out for me was the result in Georgia, a state critical to the outcome of the last election. It fits in with my theory that there is an enthusiam gap for Trump which if continues until election day will see him lose in November. TSE

Holidays can be cancelled of course

Holidays can be cancelled of course

Talk of a May election refuses to go away but I still feel a May 2nd election is as likely as Boris Johnson telling the truth. The reality is whilst Sunak has around a fortnight to call a May 2nd election he needs to call it by the middle of next week to tidy up the legislative issues still outstanding in parliament and there’s no rush for that at the moment, you don’t have an election whilst key staff are…

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Could Lee Anderson and his ilk cause an early election?

Could Lee Anderson and his ilk cause an early election?

I am very dubious about this alleged strategy from Sunak which reminded me of the brilliant film Blazing Saddles and the scene where the black sheriff bluffs and puts a gun to his own head to deal with the racist locals. Calling an election is one of the few things that Sunak has absolute control of and even though he is a poor strategist I don’t think he will cede that power to Reform defectors unless they actually wipe out…

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Former Labour councillor defects to Reform

Former Labour councillor defects to Reform

Lee Anderson defecting to UKIP is and isn’t a bit of a surprise given his love of switching political parties, but only a few weeks ago Reform were saying Lee Anderson wasn’t for them. Sadly Lee Anderson is a hypocrite so will not be giving us a by-election, I suspect he’s doomed whatever banner he stands under at the next election. An interesting market would be to see how many Tory MPs defect to Reform before the general election, there’s…

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Referendum blues

Referendum blues

Irish voters have inflicted a comprehensive and humiliating political defeat on Ireland’s political and NGO class, which overwhelmingly supported proposals presented as “progressive” measures updating the Constitution.  Why? Shortly, the changes were badly drafted, unclear as to their purpose, erased women and seemed to reduce the state’s obligations to vulnerable groups, particularly the disabled and their carers.  Some background Ireland’s 1937 constitution reflected a conservative Catholic approach to social matters. Article 41.2 referred to a woman’s “life within the home”…

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What do we want and when do we want it

What do we want and when do we want it

Fun fact, 7 is the percentage of voters who want an election in January, 7% will be the Tory share of the vote at the general election if they hold a general election which straddles the Christmas holidays. TSE

Donald Trump and the SNP have a lot in common

Donald Trump and the SNP have a lot in common

Yesterday I wrote about how the SNP’s ongoing legal issues are impacting their finances which could see them do worse than the polls suggest and over the pond Donald Trump is experiencing similar issues, the Telegraph reports TSE

There will be no May election

There will be no May election

The thing that really stands out from this poll is the unfavourable scores from Tory voters for Mrs May, where more Tories have an unfavourable score than favourable score. I think this unfavourability is driven by a decision she made in her first hour of her premiership and fired George Osborne as Chancellor, she could have done with his political antennae to help guide her through the Brexit process. Another factor is she wasn’t afraid to call out Boris Johnson…

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