politicalbetting.com

How PB.C contributors saw the developing action - 9.30pm - 2am

This is an edited version of the PB.C thread overnight on May 5th-6th 2005. It is fascinating to see people’s reactions and how views changed as the drama of the results come in.

Please note that the server clock must have been about four minutes slow - as reflected in the timings of the comments.

Waiting for the exit poll
Presuming Labour do get a majority of around 80, about what time should we expect them to go through the 324 barrier?

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 9:33 pm

Lab source: we’ve lost Battersea, Putney, Hammsersmith and Fulham, Brent East, Finchley, and Enfield Southgate.

by Nick May 5th, 2005 at 9:33 pm

Bollocks.

by Sophia May 5th, 2005 at 9:34 pm

Having been out with Labour at previous elections (although not this one) I would be stunned if any Labour activist would know acurately the status of that many seats.

From experience, they do not even call ’safe’ seats until the count has started.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 9:36 pm

Amen to that Sophia,

by Robert May 5th, 2005 at 9:36 pm

- probably right on Brent East, maybe Putney/Finchley/H&F, doubt Battersea or Enfield Southgate.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 9:37 pm

I very much doubt that Labour will lose Enfield Southgate this time. Twigg is too well-liked there. I have many friends and colleagues who live there and many non-traditional Labour voters said they would vote for him.

by John D May 5th, 2005 at 9:37 pm

Can the juveniles go to bed and let the adults talk among themselves, please

by laptop May 5th, 2005 at 9:38 pm

When exactly does the exit poll come out?

by Robespierre May 5th, 2005 at 9:38 pm

Exit poll - in about 20 mins! Very scary stuff.

by Sophia May 5th, 2005 at 9:39 pm

10.01 pm

by Robert May 5th, 2005 at 9:39 pm

As a general point, I don’t know why people make mad predicitions now, as you are going to be found out (and look rather foolish) in lot less than 24 hours.

by Sophia May 5th, 2005 at 9:40 pm

our working class vote was as strong as ever today, i imagine that this will be repeated across the country. The problem is middle class abandoning us

by tomdwatts May 5th, 2005 at 9:41 pm

How soon after Sunderland should we expect further results?

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 9:42 pm

Anybody else watching the clock? I feel like a kid at Christmas!

by John D May 5th, 2005 at 9:43 pm

have you any reason to say the middle class has abandonned Labour? Or is that just a guess?

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 9:43 pm

On Enfield Southgate - Can’t see it going. Chairman of our local party was ex-mayor of Enfield and still has contacts. Thinks North will go but Twigg will hang on but probably with a reduced majority.

As the polls are nearly closed can now say that DC&T was very good (surprisingly accurate canvass and very enthusiastic Tory vote) today and apparently the postal votes were excellent. Was out most of the day so I’ve no idea how its gone elsewhere.

by Max May 5th, 2005 at 9:43 pm

Tom - busy here in Heysham as well, queues out the door at 8.45pm.

by Andy May 5th, 2005 at 9:44 pm

the war. it isn’t really an issue with the working class, just the dinner party people

by tomdwatts May 5th, 2005 at 9:44 pm

They do it under false names to wind people up, or to try and ramp the market, but from most of them you tend know who they are, I think most are from one or two mad people on here, who also post on UK polling report

by Robert May 5th, 2005 at 9:44 pm

Some people in a newsroom somewhere know an awful lot right now…

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 9:44 pm

Need I say more, I am off now see you all later

by Robert May 5th, 2005 at 9:46 pm

Strange to think that the first result will be in within the hour - we will have our first elected MP of the new government.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 9:48 pm

That is just your class prejudice talking.

Actually, Labour loss of support over the was was analysed by Mori, and it had come from accross the demographic board.

In fact, Labour loss of voter intentions over it is similar to the UK demographically.

by Shazz May 5th, 2005 at 9:49 pm

- tend to agree. The loss of trust is not just a middle-class thing. Not long to wait though!

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 9:50 pm

What odds on a majority of 5 or 55 on 5/5/5?

by d’art May 5th, 2005 at 9:51 pm

I read in the sun that richard Littlejohn never received his ballot paper, and is disenfranchised. He’s in Stephen Twigg’s constituency.

Thats one tory vote less.

by SJK May 5th, 2005 at 9:51 pm

And over on the other PB, that is popbitch(!), they are saying that the Lib Dems will be second in overall support!!!!!!

by Sophia May 5th, 2005 at 9:53 pm

Lift off on BBC1

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 9:54 pm

oh that voodoo that you do!

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 9:54 pm

The exit poll will be based on marginals only (different sets for the different ‘fronts’) so don’t expect percentages for parties - or to be able to extrapolate easily to those.
I would expect it to be pretty accurate, but not perfect - if anything, tends to overestimate labour sligtly. But if they say Lab maj 90, say, it won’t be 30 or a hung parliament.
They largely use the same polling stations as last time, an extra precaution.
Many of them I picked some years ago …
but no, I don’t know what’s in it either …!
Good luck everyone !!

by Robert Waller May 5th, 2005 at 9:55 pm

Well, as I never thought I’d want to look at a computer screen and the TV at the same time, they’re in different rooms… so I’ll be your Radio 4 monitor for this evening

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 9:55 pm

this is what laptops were invented for.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 9:56 pm

Hey the BBC has some cool graphics.. i’m impressed

by robespierre May 5th, 2005 at 9:56 pm

Yeh, and wireless technology too… I’m just old-fashioned!

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 9:57 pm

The Exit poll
Ouch! the exit poll! I said Labour majority of 68 half an hour ago! I rock!

by sean May 5th, 2005 at 9:58 pm

lib dems at only 53 on exit poll

by robes May 5th, 2005 at 9:59 pm

Andy Marr says wirral west very close. If so could mean smaller majority than 66

by paul May 5th, 2005 at 9:59 pm

37 - 33 - 22 are the actual figures

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 9:59 pm

LD votes in the wrong places apparently…

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 10:00 pm

Sounds like Tories done well in marginals.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 10:00 pm

The Conservative “target seats strategy” looks like it’s been a stunning success.

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 10:01 pm

According to baxters pdf. If Labour lose wirral west on a uniform swing their majority will be 14

by paul May 5th, 2005 at 10:01 pm

FWIW, Baxter on these figures gives 374/185/57

by David S May 5th, 2005 at 10:01 pm

5 million postal votes, apparently…

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 10:02 pm

Just the majority the chattering classes wanted - well done the New Statesman

by Melv May 5th, 2005 at 10:02 pm

Has anyone got the sky exit polls. BBC exit poll 66 seats - crap what about the postal votes (NOT counted in the BBC exit poll). My prediction 100+ majority.

by Matthew Partridge May 5th, 2005 at 10:03 pm

have a strong impression this could be a hung parliament

by graham h May 5th, 2005 at 10:03 pm

Interesting the difference between the UNS and the ‘exit poll’.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 10:03 pm

Historical Labour third term ! Yes !

by Will May 5th, 2005 at 10:04 pm

Sounds like John Prescott is very confident of a labour government.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 10:04 pm

Looks to me as if the prediction of 66 may be high. If it goes below 40 I’ll be a satisfied man. Prescott thinks it’ll be higher.

Well - I’m staying up then! Going to be a fun night.

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 10:04 pm

Margaret Beckett saying (this is R4) that immigration has had a big impact…

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 10:05 pm

I’ll be happy with any Labour majority over 60 and especially happy with a majority that brings in Brown sooner rather than later. Sounds like this may do the job.

by John D May 5th, 2005 at 10:05 pm

Yes - a vindication of the British Peoples concern over immigration.

by graham h May 5th, 2005 at 10:07 pm

If this vote share/seats outcome is true (ie. a total demolition of UNS) then everyone on PB.com can give themselves a mighty pat on the back - it’s what we’ve been drawing attention to all along!

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 10:07 pm

I presume by the way the LD’s have done, there may not be many decapitations.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 10:07 pm

that’s the only daft post I recall you making, Graham…or you’re a genius…we will see in few hours.

by Martin Smith May 5th, 2005 at 10:07 pm

alex - your definition of success is very different to mine !

by Andy May 5th, 2005 at 10:08 pm

PAXMAN - Brilliant!

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 10:09 pm

BBC1 “ticker” says possible recount at wirral west (baxters pdf forecasts lab majority of 14 on a uniform swing if this goes)

by paul May 5th, 2005 at 10:10 pm

IG Index initially dropped to 63 / 70 on Labour majority.
Now back up to 73 / 81.
Looks like the postal votes could have a big impact.

by Andy May 5th, 2005 at 10:11 pm

I think the tories will be absolutely delighted with this if it is as low as a 66 majority on 33% of the vote. They can’t have realistically expected to win but it’s showed (if true) that the Tories maybe don’t have the structural deficit on the electoral system that people thought.

by Dan May 5th, 2005 at 10:12 pm

I could have told them that. I was hearing it all over the place. I had rows with a friend of my family, a commited Christian about it. Her take on it was practically overtly racist. I reacted in typical “liberal élite talking about immigration is racist” mode. And made no impression whatsoever. I heard a programme on the Gyspy/un-planned sites problem and the parliamentary committee on it and was very scared. I thought then (about 18 months ago) that it was a very dangerous issue, and that Labour had better get on top of it. Prescott was the minister and he did nothing.

It happened to the socialists in France and it seems to have had an influence in the UK.

But of course, just exit poll;

by Shazz May 5th, 2005 at 10:12 pm

Well, if we do a “1992 correction” the majority might be more like 30 than 60-odd… Labour “officials” “apprehensive” according to Nicholas Witchell.

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 10:13 pm

Well these are the exit polls..so we have to wait for the results to get in.

by VoteNow May 5th, 2005 at 10:13 pm

Sorry Martin - trying to be ironic beacuase I fear some of the gloating tories that may appear on here I what I suspect comes true - as I stated yesterday I sold all my spreads last night so now have little interest in the punting side besides a small punt on the LD`s .
Have a good night.

by graham h May 5th, 2005 at 10:13 pm

As I was saying this morning, looks like ICM will be pretty close. Surprised, though, if LDs are ‘only’ 22% and it’s < 55 seats. Looks like you got a bit carried away with your bet, Mike, though hope your foresight on Lab % will bail you out.

by Martin Smith May 5th, 2005 at 10:14 pm

[at 6pm I has posted saying I thought that the Lib Dems were going to do very well and placed a biggish spread bet on them getting 68 seats or more]

FWIW I understand the PV’s are good in the rural south west of Scotland for the Tories. Very well ahead in DC&T and ahead but not as much in D&G. No idea about the rest of the country.

by Max May 5th, 2005 at 10:15 pm

BBC1 just said it was close in Wyre Forest between Independent and Tories ! The gap last time was 58 to 18% !

by Glen May 5th, 2005 at 10:15 pm

Where are Labour?

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 10:16 pm

Key issue now - what about the postal votes? they’re not in the exit polls. Do we now start to believe the rumours about them falling for the Tories? Could make a big difference …?

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 10:18 pm

Surprised and slightly disappointed if this will turn out to be true. Like many I hoped for a bad result to both Tories and New Labour. The Tory campaign was the most disgusting I have ever witnessed. I hope they won’t be rewarded for their shamelessnes…

by jonathan May 5th, 2005 at 10:20 pm

Can we please wait for the results before the gloating can begin.

The news from around the country are very good for the Tories,but not one result is in.

by VoteNews May 5th, 2005 at 10:20 pm

They probably are in the exit poll. In the past they’ve been factored in, presumably using a parallel phone poll.

by Anthony Wells May 5th, 2005 at 10:20 pm

Sunderland South expecting to declare before twenty to…

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 10:20 pm

66 seats is curtains for Tony.

Champagne!!!!

by Shazz May 5th, 2005 at 10:21 pm

Anthony - Dartford rumours?

by villan May 5th, 2005 at 10:22 pm

Turnout 49.9% in Sunderland South, 1% up…

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 10:22 pm

Negative campaigning works. Im sorry to say.

Britian has change from the prim and proper nation it was up until the 1970’s

by VoteNow May 5th, 2005 at 10:22 pm

If exit polls correct - three new leaders for next election !

by Will May 5th, 2005 at 10:23 pm

Tory campaign ‘disgusting’ in what way? Cause a large chunk of the British people agree with it? Go jump.

by sean May 5th, 2005 at 10:23 pm

Forecast Tory percentage is about the same as 2001

by Tim Bickerstaff May 5th, 2005 at 10:25 pm

I really think we should leave out the mud-slinging tonight. Let’s just watch what promises to be a very exciting night.

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 10:26 pm

We’re hopeful in Dartford - pledges came out like good little voters, very good performance in one of the more run-down housing estates that we normally expect Labour to do well in.

by Anthony Wells May 5th, 2005 at 10:26 pm

Damnation, just posted this in another thread..just as everyone abandoned it! Slow down! Sitting in Northern Ireland, if anybody is looking for last minute bets on the rather unique poll over here, the story for the elections in the press has been of a total meltdown for the SDLP and Ulster Unionists. Paddy Power were apparently offering a straight bet of 5/4 the Ulster Unionists holding one seat and 7/4 on 2. I honestly think they will make 2 and possibly 3, defying the perception that they’ll get pretty much wiped out. Just an observation of many years on the scene rather than any party inspired loyalty. If one of you mathematical geniuses can calculate up what odds are available out there may be a bet with a small profit to be made with a low downside. Counting here is traditonally done on Friday….we like our beds here..

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 10:27 pm

93 - 3 seats? Trimble, Hermon and Burnside?

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 10:27 pm

Richard, hear hear - lets try to keep it about predictions only.

by villan May 5th, 2005 at 10:27 pm

I can’t believe the Labour majority will be that low as some are predicting above, i fancied 100, but as low as 60? That would a surprise to me and I’m not a Labour supporter

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 10:28 pm

Lynton Crosby just told ITV that he expects the Conservatives to make between 40 - 50 gains, time will tell.

by daveL May 5th, 2005 at 10:28 pm

Paul Flynn (Lab, Newport W) has called on Blair to resign “within weeks”

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 10:30 pm

Peter Snow - what a great new toy!

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 10:31 pm

Does anyone think the Libs cocked up by going at Labour and not the Tories if the exit pollis correct?

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 10:31 pm

This is only an exit poll. I expect to the two LLs to do a lot better in the actual result.

by Sophia May 5th, 2005 at 10:32 pm

Did you here Torbay has a 78% turnout! Pretty Amazing

by Max May 5th, 2005 at 10:33 pm

Veiled race-baiting, shameless populism, unprecedented negativity - I don’t think that the fact that this is a perfectly cynical ploy is much of a saving grace… One consolation would be that the Tories still will not emerge from their core. Not a vote winning but a stomach turning strategy then.

by jonathan May 5th, 2005 at 10:33 pm

Birmingham Perry Barr edging Lib Dem

by afleitch May 5th, 2005 at 10:33 pm

Sophia, I,m also struggling with the LibDem low score on this exit poll.

by villan May 5th, 2005 at 10:34 pm

Hey i’m buying lib dems at 64. on the betfair seats market if you dudes are iterested

by robes May 5th, 2005 at 10:34 pm

Hermon, DUP candidate too weak despite a possible shredding off Hermon’s vote. Burnside, I just can’t see the DUP opponent getting it, his time has gone and I have a sneaking feeling for McGimpsey in South Belfast, the guy is a deadly politician despite all the problems he seems to have been hit by. But 2 I’d just believe is likelt, there simply won’t be enough people voting for the DUP, there’s enough people who just wouldnt vote DUP in both North Down & South Antrim I believe to let teh DUP get enough to win it. Trimble is a goner by the looks of it I think what has finaly done it for him is that he looks a loser these days and theres always some that won’t vote for a loser. His constituency is also a bit more a bearpit seat.

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 10:34 pm

How does the exit poll work exactly? does it just measure a uniform swing across the country or does it take regional differences into account?

by John Miles May 5th, 2005 at 10:35 pm

Sunderland is imminent.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 10:35 pm

Matthew Taylor sounding pretty downbeat, talking of tight results in seats LDs hold as well as targets…

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 10:35 pm

The exit poll in 2001 - did it bear up to the actual result?

by Sophia May 5th, 2005 at 10:35 pm

i mean on the Seats Line market

by robes May 5th, 2005 at 10:36 pm

Well I have been predicting a Labour majority of around 60 or below for awhile now.

I have said that I have been following elections since the Conservative landslide of 1959.

I usually know what im talking about.

by VoteNow May 5th, 2005 at 10:36 pm

from my (English perspective) I thought Trimble and McG were gonners. Hope Hermon holds on.

Perry Barr would be amazing.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 10:37 pm

Alex - true in theory but lets wait and see!

by villan May 5th, 2005 at 10:37 pm

In 2001 the actual result was halfway between the 2 exit polls. Which I guess is why they joined forces this time!

by Adrian May 5th, 2005 at 10:37 pm

I bought in on Mike’s tip @ 68, sold as soon as the exit poll came out @ 60…

by Chrisco May 5th, 2005 at 10:38 pm

I would suggest that the Lib Dems have actually lost a reasonable number of soft Tories who now see them as left wing, they’ve come out very strongly in that direction this election. The Tories in 3 way marginals will show a very very modest increase and it will ex Lib Dem votes. The Lib Dems in turn will get their growth from Labour losses.

If i read things correctly because the statisticians put in all sorts of riders for past recall etc etc what they won’t easily pick up is a couple of percent who have moved from Lib Dem to Tory. On a national level it also will be partially if not totally be obscured by the Lib dem gains from Labour.

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 10:40 pm

Feeling confident now about my tip for West Devon and Torridge going from LibDem to Tory.

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 10:40 pm

hope mike got out. Ironic since his instinct was to go with the Tories all along. That Times tracker has really caused a lot of trouble.

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 10:40 pm

Recount in Hove (a rumour)

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 10:41 pm

Beginning to sound like a very bad night for Labour

by Roger May 5th, 2005 at 10:41 pm

This is big trouble.

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 10:42 pm

Hove on a recount? By the way I wouldn’t read too much into the declared Sunderland South seat.

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 10:42 pm

Tories should win Hove on the first count on a reasonable night, no?

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 10:43 pm

I think the liberal elites (of which I am one) would do very well to listen to the immigration debate. I’ve been expecting it to be key for about 18 months.

I think the loss of Blunkett was huge, he’s the only rampart against that that Labour have. I thought at the time his self-indulgence about his private affairs would cost Labour dear.

The British liberal elite would do well to look at what happened in France. The Socialists refused to take it on board and Le Pen ended up in the final vote.

It’s not something I like, but it has to be addressed.

by Charyxena May 5th, 2005 at 10:44 pm

I got that rumour too about Hove. It may still hold for Labour but by less than 200….got to phone the girlfriend…bless her she’ll be watching ER

by branden May 5th, 2005 at 10:45 pm

Birmingham Northfield, Yardley and Perry Bar all lost apparantly

by Peter W. May 5th, 2005 at 10:46 pm

BBC say Hove is close

by John Miles May 5th, 2005 at 10:46 pm

Prescott already claiming victory
see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4518785.stm

may his brother told him “its a done deal” (like Jeb and George Bush)

by Brian May 5th, 2005 at 10:46 pm

If the BBC Exit poll with the Tories on 209 is anywhere near right, then Hove has to go Conservative.

by A.H. Matlock May 5th, 2005 at 10:47 pm

Tories are ahead in the Hove count - source inside says.

by Informed Tory May 5th, 2005 at 10:47 pm

Sunderland South
Results in, Sunderland stays Labour

by Brian May 5th, 2005 at 10:47 pm

This seems to correspond to a fierce anti-Labour tactical vote, roughly equivalent to my April 3rd and 10th UK-Elect forecasts - see http://www.ukelect.com/April2005/Forecast.htm I toned it down later - I’m beginning towish I didn’t!

by Tim Bickerstaff May 5th, 2005 at 10:49 pm

Yardley was always going to fall, but good news anyway

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 10:50 pm

As I said earlier Perry Barr had the 2nd largest anti-Labour swing last time and it’ll be excellent to have a Lib Dem MP if true. Fingers crossed

by ChrisA May 5th, 2005 at 10:53 pm

tell me if I’m wrong but is the worst thing on election night ‘interactivity’ with the average Joe, text messages, audiences of the general public..I want anoraks and poll count reports!

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 10:54 pm

There’s no way that the Lib Dems will gain only 2 seats. Stand by for tactical voting against Labour in Lib/Lab marginals.

by Informed Tory May 5th, 2005 at 10:54 pm

The BBC comments about hornchurch are really interesting. I know a number of people who have been canvassing there and the general assumption was that it was a lost cause. If Lab can hold Hornchurch we really are in for an interesting night. John Cryer was strongly anti war. The end result of all this maybe to move the plp to the left as anti war candidates stay those who supported the war loose

by jc May 5th, 2005 at 10:55 pm

Sunderland South.
Lab -1,939 votes; Con + 669; LD +817.
So Labour seats with majorites < 3000 in danger, yes ?

by Alan J May 5th, 2005 at 10:57 pm

Looking again at the Sunderland South seat, more about half of Labour’s losses are to the Liberal democrats.

This is a safe Labour seat so it’s possible that in more marginal constituencies, labour voters will not have defected to the lib dems and instead stuck with labour to keep the tories out. Maybe the swing in the marginals will be smaller than here.

by John Miles May 5th, 2005 at 10:58 pm

… less than 3000 in danger ?

by Alan J May 5th, 2005 at 10:58 pm

Did I just hear that right? Labour in trouble in Birmingham Edgbaston.

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 10:58 pm

wouldn’t surprise me if Rover tipped Edgbaston over.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 10:59 pm

Is anyone else having difficulty connecting to the BBC results page?

by A.H. Matlock May 5th, 2005 at 11:01 pm

Remember, Edgbaston was Tory for years and years - it wouldn’t surprise me as a former constituent for it revert to type.

by Trebuchet May 5th, 2005 at 11:02 pm

BBC has Libs gaining a large number of seats - that means that they will have lost a number to Cons. Looking better for Marcus and Rik than Nick?

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 11:02 pm

Yep.

by sean May 5th, 2005 at 11:02 pm

Snow showing Tories taking Wimbledon - not expecting that.

by observer May 5th, 2005 at 11:03 pm

Lab not confident in Bethnal Green and Bow - Oona King very worried (BBC)

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:03 pm

yup. Where did you live? - I grew up in Quinton.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 11:03 pm

try http://politics.guardian.co.uk/election2005/0,15875,,00.html

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 11:04 pm

Probably best for everyone to avoid pontificating too much on the basis of the exit poll. As a Tory, I find it encouraging juxtaposed to the talk of a meltdown two or three days ago but it is only a poll. We could all be wiping egg off our faces in a few hours time.

by A.H. Matlock May 5th, 2005 at 11:04 pm

I have stopped trying the bbc website. thank god for internet radio. Birgmingham Edgbaston also has the most pro-war Labour backbench MP, Gisela Stuart, who was delighted with the reelection of George Bush

by ncateph May 5th, 2005 at 11:05 pm

BBC website will be hit like mad until about midnight when sensible folk go to bed. 154-I lived in Harborne for a few years.

by Trebuchet May 5th, 2005 at 11:05 pm

I agree with A.H. Matlock’s statement.

by Sophia May 5th, 2005 at 11:05 pm

The sooner those sensible people clear off the better.

by BGR May 5th, 2005 at 11:07 pm

Marr just said Cleethorpes at 115 target could be in danger !! Backs up my man’s (Con candidate) claim about Harlow which is number 89

by Glen May 5th, 2005 at 11:07 pm

BBC apparently reporting Cleethorpes close

by paul May 5th, 2005 at 11:08 pm

Gisela is one of the ones I hate the most. If she got the heave ho I’d be delighted.

by Charyxena May 5th, 2005 at 11:08 pm

your sources (Cunningham House?) are giving different info than mine. I have heard Burnside is toast in South Antrim. Turnout slightly down on last time and differential favouring middle-class areas, but not anything like enough to save Burnside.

by Election Junkie May 5th, 2005 at 11:09 pm

yup, one seat I wouldn’t hugely mind a Tory gain in.

nice, I used to hit the pubs there quite often.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 11:09 pm

I don’t believe a majority of 60+ on this evidence… muchsmaller…

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 11:09 pm

no problems getting onto the bbc website here

by John Miles May 5th, 2005 at 11:09 pm

Peter Snow has just forecasted seats like Wimbledon, Wirral West, Wolverhampton SW and St Albans going Conservative on the basis of the BBC exit poll.

by A.H. Matlock May 5th, 2005 at 11:10 pm

LibDems to take Cardiff Central.

I think this is starting to look very interesting …!

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:10 pm

What’s wrong with Gisela?! She was honest about Europe… or is that what’s wrong with her?

by sean May 5th, 2005 at 11:10 pm

endorsed Bush’s reelection.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 11:11 pm

This election could stuff the LibDems longterm - losing seats to the Tories thanks to their pursuit of left wing votes. Seats gained from Labour will be lost back once Labour get rid of Blair.

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 11:12 pm

The Kerry “win” will be in everyone’s mind. I even heard Perle practically conceding on French radio.

Look what happened there.

Anyway, I’m way off if it’s true. I was Lab 37; Con 34; LD 24.

Bad night for the LibDems.

by Charyxena May 5th, 2005 at 11:12 pm

So that guy Ian on Anthony Wells site was spot on and not ramping. Believe he was talking about Cleethorpes before 10.

by Max May 5th, 2005 at 11:12 pm

Is it me, or are these other seats taking ages to be counted?

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 11:12 pm

“thank god for internet radio” Yup. Sitting here in Germany, laptop on Radio 4, desktop on PB. LD supporter, but competition entry predicted low labour majority due to massive tactical unwind, hence LD votes in wrong places. Let’s see how it goes!

by Dave X May 5th, 2005 at 11:12 pm

Gisela - pro Bush and pro Europe … a bizzare woman

by ncateph May 5th, 2005 at 11:13 pm

On the basis of all these Labour seats falling, how close are we to a hung Parliament?

by Peter W. May 5th, 2005 at 11:13 pm

Hello ncateph, any gossip from Brighton or Lewisham?

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 11:14 pm

Yes indeed. If she loses I would not be surprised.

Shirley Williams is saying the LibDems have picked up Cardiff Central

by VoteNow May 5th, 2005 at 11:14 pm

Not one labour seat has fallen yet.

by Sophia May 5th, 2005 at 11:14 pm

This still all smacks of being a bit too good to be true to me. Labour majority reduced by 100 and Tory gains from the Liberals too? I could hardly have wished for better!

Suspicious….

by A.H. Matlock May 5th, 2005 at 11:15 pm

Gisela has shown increased eurosceptic tendencies - she went about as far as possible in saying that the EU constitution was a bad thing.

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 11:15 pm

But it looks like they will!

by Peter W. May 5th, 2005 at 11:15 pm

I find that comment amazing. How about stuffing the people, Labour, who basically have been telling us to bog off for three years.

Well we have bogged off, so what are you complaining about?

by Shazz May 5th, 2005 at 11:16 pm

That’s my favourite post of the night You are right of course, and the Kerry ‘win’ will caution many of us … however, the stories coming in from counts do seem to confirm the exit poll (if anything worse for Labour that that). But you’re right of course!

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:16 pm

nothing yet. But if Edgbaston falls it will be because of the war. Same sentiment may swing at least Brighton Pavilion. Also true if Hove falls to the Tories

by ncateph May 5th, 2005 at 11:17 pm

An honest(non-partisan) argument. The libdems have taken a big risk chasing after traditional labour votes.

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 11:18 pm

My view is that the postal votes are more Conservative than not, which seems to have become received wisom here for such bizare reasons as rich tories are more likely to go on holiday, and old tories are more likely to vote postal. As I did report (earlier than I previously said I would) I expect a better return on Conservative postal votes, because the Conservatives are an election wining machine.

I also doubt the exit polls, because the Conservaitve campaign has flown below the radar in much the same way as it did in 1992.

I have always played down a large Labour majority, and if the exit polls are anything to go by, looking at the fiddle factors I would use, I suggest that the Conservative vote is still understated and Labour overstated. Time will tell.

by Benedict White May 5th, 2005 at 11:19 pm

I’m not really sure just how good an indicator Hove is going to be. The Tories have an excellent candidate there, and according to all reports I’ve received, they’ve run an excellent campaign there as well. I rather think that Hove is likely to go Tory even if the Tories do significantly worse than the exit polls project.

by A.H. Matlock May 5th, 2005 at 11:19 pm

And we’ve still got the pro-hunting swing to factor in, in rural seats. Could indeed be an intriguing night.

by sean May 5th, 2005 at 11:19 pm

I see BBC Scotland are saying DC&T is going Tory. Quite glad I got that one right as I’m sure I must have bored people going on about it! We took 70-80% of the PV’s so it looked good since this morning.

by Max May 5th, 2005 at 11:19 pm

Well guys I am still here before I go to my count. For what it is worth it looks like neck and neck here in S&C. We had a massive turnout of our pledges and over 80% turnout in our best areas.
However the total turnout looks like being up on last time so who knows!

I am delighted that it would appear that we have seen off the cretins who constantly spouted on about “Tory Meltdown” after every poll. I still think I could be proved right when I predicted a net loss of seats for the Lib Dems.

My sources tell me that Gillingham will be gained by us from Labour.

by Richard Willis May 5th, 2005 at 11:20 pm

OK - I don’t want this to be a partisan comment. But anyone else think that if Enfield Southgate goes it will represent the end of ‘New’ Labour? It’s just that of all the 1997 results that’s the one I remember most, and I suspect that’s true for many people.

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:20 pm

Liam Fox describing it as “a series of constituency elections”

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 11:21 pm

But then she disowned the Constitution! What price a Yes vote in the Referendum after this? Even Brown couldn’t swing it. Doomed.

by sean May 5th, 2005 at 11:22 pm

The only person that I want to have egg on their face is the smug git Bob Worcester (the Pollster). Remember the arrogant way that he dismissed Observer journalist Nick Cohen’s claim that Labour would have a much smaller majority? And he rubbishes the other polling organizations as well. A know-it-all and a big head.

by Gladstone May 5th, 2005 at 11:22 pm

Yes and so was David Heathcote Amory

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 11:22 pm

GOOD LUCK RICHARD !

by john May 5th, 2005 at 11:23 pm

Careful! I upset Bob yesterday and entered an email correspondence with him about his smugness!

by RichardH May 5th, 2005 at 11:24 pm

Labour 9% down in Sunderland South: Swing to CON 5%

by afleitch May 5th, 2005 at 11:24 pm

Sorry. North!

by afleitch May 5th, 2005 at 11:24 pm

Crikey! This might be a long night … might.

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:25 pm

On a uniform swing we are almost into hung parliament territory!

by Peter W. May 5th, 2005 at 11:25 pm

Large drop in safe seats, but less so in marginals?

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 11:25 pm

NuLab took a big risk in doing nothing to keep us. Quite the opposite, we were being slagged off as “liberati”, “chardonnay” quaffers.

Labour have done this all on their own. You cannot alienate your core vote and expect to do well.

I shall be watching NuLab’s reaction to this. If they want me back, recriminations aren’t a good idea.

by charyxena May 5th, 2005 at 11:26 pm

BBC report Stephen Twigg in trouble in Enfield Southgate

by afleitch May 5th, 2005 at 11:26 pm

Election Junkie, my sources is my own history of watching the NI elections go off. I think that Ford’s vote in South Antrim will be squeezed marginally but enough to see Burnside through. I’m estimating that the DUP vote pretty much peaked previously with little extra left for him to get. Only a stay at home by some Burnside voters will get him in. The fact that Memphis McCrea got it and lost it I believe is also a point worth noting.

I could be very wrong of course but again its based on my own reading which equals my own view which is not informed by any of the parties…you may have inside knowledge that is going to make me wish i bought that new jacket instead of making a bet!

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 11:27 pm

Starting to think we will end up with 30-40 Lab maj. That surely would mean not much more Blair.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 11:27 pm

These sunderland seats are the ones that people know that they can issue a protest vote without letting the tories in. In marginals, it’s entirely possibly that in close seats, Liberals may have bit the bullet and stuck with labour

by John Miles May 5th, 2005 at 11:28 pm

Fierce, fierce, anti New Labour tactical voting? In the end I chickened out from forecasting that, toning it down in the last few UK-Elect forecasts. Ah well.. guess it could still change.

by Tim Bickerstaff May 5th, 2005 at 11:28 pm

Matthew Taylor sounding a little more cheerful now, endorsing Fox’s comment

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 11:28 pm

Andrew Marr reports Labour strategists think BBC Exit poll too optimistic for Labour.

Just beginning to think we’re in for quite a night …

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:29 pm

Couldn’t agree more about Bob Worcester. He’s smugly and patricianly dismissive of eurosceptics as well. BTW if the marginals swing more, we could well see a Lab majority of, what, 20?!!!! BTBTW BNP doing well…

by sean May 5th, 2005 at 11:29 pm

These Sunderland seats are all very well but what we need to see is some marginals. Similar swing and things get very interesting

by BGR May 5th, 2005 at 11:29 pm

Tactical unwind on a massive scale?

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 11:30 pm

they did better than that in 1992. i stick by my prediction of Labour being short of an overall majority by 92.

We will see.

by Benedict White May 5th, 2005 at 11:31 pm

these swings are predicted by baxter if you key in the exit polls. still goes for labour by 102!! think it could be busy night punting

by gerardo May 5th, 2005 at 11:32 pm

You’re absolutely right. Those of us wanting this to be close need to bear that in mind. Having said that, rumours from some of the marginals are interesting indeed.

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:32 pm

Looks like the liberal democrats have decapitated themselves!

by GILES May 5th, 2005 at 11:32 pm

Fraser Kemp a moment ago: “IF Labour form a government…’

Could yet be Oct 74 (I don’t remember the original but saw the repeat on BBC Parliament) - a projected Lab majority gets smaller and smaller..

by ‘Ave it 05 May 5th, 2005 at 11:33 pm

yes, TV unwind and more. Looks like a quite significant shift to the Lib Dems to me. Tories static at the moment.

by Tim Bickerstaff May 5th, 2005 at 11:33 pm

What is boris doing ?

by john May 5th, 2005 at 11:34 pm

heathcote amery was NOT on the exc. He was just an ordinary member of the Convention. Gisela was the only member of the exec. (the Presidium)

by ncateph May 5th, 2005 at 11:35 pm

The national swing to the DUP will make any small tactical vote for Burnside irrelevant in any case, but Ford’s vote was squeezed heavily by Burnside last time as was the SDLP’s. Compare the local and general election votes from 2001 before arguing this point, please! Has Burnside done anything over the last four years except convince Alliance and moderate Nationalist voters he is no different from McCrea? Not in my book. Expect tactical unwind on a massive scale.

Houghton - starting to look tasty for the LibDems?

by Election Junkie May 5th, 2005 at 11:35 pm

Only evidence of a tactical unwind in safe labour seats so far

by John Miles May 5th, 2005 at 11:36 pm

I think a few big Lab majorities will fall to the LDs.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 11:36 pm

BBC is fantastic! Get on Paul Merton as well!

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 11:36 pm

I just want to remind everyone, I predicted Lid Dem to Tory swing, Lab to both.

I also said the Conservative campaign was under the radar.

Well I am off now, I have made my predicitions, so I am going home for a few canned beers and to watch the alledged “Tory meltdown”.

Enjoy.

by Benedict White May 5th, 2005 at 11:36 pm

My post at 120 i think may still hold. The Libs did disproportionate damage to the Tories previously but I believe that those ex Tories are coming back because the Lib Dems basic policies are just not near the Tories’ these days, in fact the hold verey little appeal for people of a natural Tory disposition. Lib Dem gains, unless its a dump the Tory tactical vote, will be almost completely be at the expense of Labour. The high profile Tory decaptiation strategy would also come off as very negative to soft Tories who may have drifted or considerred the Lib Dems.

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 11:36 pm

R4 reporting that Tories have “more confident body language” in Haltemprice & Howden, Labour vote has apparently collapsed there.

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 11:36 pm

Blimey - Paxman mauling Charlie Faulkner re. postal votes. Paxo looks furious!

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:37 pm

Brawl in Romford? Brawl in the BBC election studio!

by Adrian May 5th, 2005 at 11:37 pm

Going home to celebrate a third labour victory ?

by Will May 5th, 2005 at 11:38 pm

but the Tory vote is not up,it is the Lb vote that appears to be up.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 11:38 pm

HUNG PARLIAMENT territory now! HOLD the FRONT PAGE

by ncateph May 5th, 2005 at 11:39 pm

Going home to celebrate relying on Jeremy Corbyn et al to win every Commons vote?

by Informed Tory May 5th, 2005 at 11:39 pm

Shouldn’t that be worrying the Tories then?

by A.H. Matlock May 5th, 2005 at 11:39 pm

Richard Taylor all but conceding: “I just hope my support has held up”

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 11:40 pm

Tories down in Houghton … so much for uniform swings!

by ncateph May 5th, 2005 at 11:41 pm

Very true - Enjoy your beer !

by Will May 5th, 2005 at 11:41 pm

Tory and LibDem pincer movement in the making?

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:41 pm

Election junkie, the difference is I’m not so inclined to take the local election figures as a truly relevant pointer. Perhaps you are and thats where we’ll differ. My basis for the prediction and it isnt going to take the shirt off my back if its wrong, is that McCrea’s vote doesnt have much more stretch and that only stay at homes will get Burnside. I don’t believe there will be enough tactical unwind (god that terms stinks)in itself to knock Burnside out, narrow as the last westminster election margin was for Burnside, I believe what could lose him the seat is his people staying home, not a literal transfer votes and I’ve gone with the estimate that he’ll get the vote out.

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 11:45 pm

Labour candidate worried that he’s lost his deposit in David Davis’s seat! Lib-Lab tactical surge against Davis?

by John Miles May 5th, 2005 at 11:45 pm

Has Boris been on the sauce!

As a tory i’m pinching myself, we’re back.

Time to play “Things can only get better” on the CD………

by sjk May 5th, 2005 at 11:45 pm

Theresa May’s team feel safe

by afleitch May 5th, 2005 at 11:46 pm

Rumour that Tories have taken Dorset South by a 6000 majority (from Anthony’s site). That would be extremely interesting if true …!

Theresa May said to be safe.

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:47 pm

how are you back? There has been some tactical unwind, but you are still on 33% - hardly moved since 97 or 01.

by Kurt May 5th, 2005 at 11:47 pm

Labour supporters “looking grimmer than the rest” in Falmouth & Camborne [R4]

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 11:48 pm

Much too early to say re. Tory share of vote. We need to see more results. They will improve on 01 though I can assure you!

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:48 pm

Looking bad for Davis in Haltemprice.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 11:48 pm

No I think we have to win a landslide first. Maybe next time, or the time after that. Gordon Brown as Labour’s John Major.

by john May 5th, 2005 at 11:49 pm

lady thatcher looking radiant on itv……sky reporting twigg just makes it and holds on to enfield southgate….this is sooo much btter than people on here have been suggesting well done michael howard

by chris_g May 5th, 2005 at 11:49 pm

Definitely must check the telly out if its as amusing as people are saying, sadly to bring my computer with me would require a fork lift, its the size of a pallet…

by Branden May 5th, 2005 at 11:49 pm

Looks like the result will confirm that Britain is a gerontocracy. The grey vote kept the Tories in in 1992, refused to back them in 1997 or 2001, but has got out of the Parker-Knoll this time to give Tony the oft-mentioned bloody nose.

by Adrian May 5th, 2005 at 11:49 pm

Fantastic news if true. Goodbye Candy Atherton. At last. Sad about David Davis tho - cool dude…

by sean May 5th, 2005 at 11:51 pm

Tories and SNP conceding Inverness and bits to Liberal Democrats

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 11:51 pm

High turnout in Haltemprice is bound to help Davis

by alex May 5th, 2005 at 11:52 pm

Well to be honest i thought we’d get 10 gains at most so please allow me to be a little happy.
OK we aren’t picking up votes but we aren’t dying our either.

All the best

SJK

by sjk May 5th, 2005 at 11:52 pm

‘Ian’ who seems very well informed says Dorset South going Tory by 6,000. Frankly I would have been happy if he (Ed Matts) hadn’t won his conduct was appaling.

Had a great day campaigning today. Its amazing how genuinelly nice most people are. My feet hurt and I’ve got a massive cut on my head from walking into the aforementioned lamp post!

I’m feeling happy tonight. I genuinelly hope we all have something to celebrate and - that should it go well - the Tories on this wonderful site desist from the kind of gloating displayed by some of our opponents prior to the election.

by Max May 5th, 2005 at 11:52 pm

What I hear is David Davis is relatively safe. Shipley sadly staying Labour.

by john May 5th, 2005 at 11:52 pm

Slough (!) close on postal votes alone say BBC

by afleitch May 5th, 2005 at 11:53 pm

Why are the results taking a lot longer this time. Only 3 in 2 hours ?

by Aloysius May 5th, 2005 at 11:53 pm

Closed my long turnout bet at 63.1%.

by book value May 5th, 2005 at 11:54 pm

Slough would be ridiculous - that can’t mean anything. The Lab majority was huge last time (20% I think).

by Richard May 5th, 2005 at 11:55 pm

Theresa May had better be safe! I’ve worked my backside off trying to keep her so.

I’ll be genuinely surprised if David Davis loses, however. Things have sounded cautiously optimistic for him for the last week.

by A.H. Matlock May 5th, 2005 at 11:56 pm

Sutton & Cheam projected to stay Yellow on the basis of the Exit Poll

by Chrisco May 5th, 2005 at 11:58 pm

I agree Max we shouldn’t gloat - mainly because we have lost the third election in a row with someone like Tony Blair against us.
I think we should keep quiet and hope for better things in the near future !

by john May 5th, 2005 at 11:58 pm

R4: Portsmouth N, Beverley both “neck and neck” (one of these must be wrong, surely )

by Innocent Abroad May 5th, 2005 at 11:58 pm

BBC1 London region flashed up about 30 mins ago that Labour had held Enfield North. Typo?

by Chris Read May 5th, 2005 at 11:59 pm

Sky News: Conservatives claim to have gained Angus from SNP

by Gary Barford May 5th, 2005 at 11:59 pm

Thatcher looking radiant?.
I’d have the TV repair chap round in the morning.

by invicta May 5th, 2005 at 11:59 pm

No results from London yet…

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:01 am

“The slow, sad extinction of Tony Blair” - Boris Johnson

by Innocent Abroad May 6th, 2005 at 12:01 am

Nick must be very worried. Any news form Broxtowe?

by observer May 6th, 2005 at 12:02 am

Peter Law predicted to win Blanae Gwent!

by Peter W. May 6th, 2005 at 12:02 am

Sky claimed that tories faces are not happy in EN.

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 12:03 am

I really hope thats true, it used to be our safest seat in Scotland (70% of the vote). If we win that and the two South West seats I will be delighted.

by Max May 6th, 2005 at 12:03 am

If Enfield North doesn’t go Tory, I don’t see how we can reach the 209 the BBC’s exit poll has us on. Having said that, there are no results in from London yet, so I’m not sure what sort of information that chatter is based on.

by A.H. Matlock May 6th, 2005 at 12:03 am

Ken Clarke just mentioned Nick P could face a tight result in Broxtowe!

by Glen May 6th, 2005 at 12:04 am

R4: Lib Dems “very very cheerful” in Newcastle Central

by Innocent Abroad May 6th, 2005 at 12:04 am

Shirley Williams sounding confident on R4

by Charyxena May 6th, 2005 at 12:04 am

Oh come *on*, folks - we haven’t had a single result from a marginal seat yet. There will have been effectively no campaigning in any of the constituencies featuring so far. There’s no chance that they will tell us anything about the important changes in the vote.

Exit poll maybe more so - but again you’re aggregating vote changes in wildly varying areas.

So far we have no idea what the final totals will be, and neither does anyone else.

by Peter Ellis May 6th, 2005 at 12:04 am

LibDems claiming Hornsey & WG (BBC1).

by Election Junkie May 6th, 2005 at 12:05 am

Conservatives claim to have won Angus and South Perkshire

LibDems claim to have defeated Barbara Ernscliffe

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:05 am

Sky claims Lib Dems going to take Hornsey

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 12:06 am

What goes on?

by houndtang May 6th, 2005 at 12:06 am

Turnout seems to be up.

by Kurt May 6th, 2005 at 12:07 am

Andrew Marr: Newcastle Central!!!!!!!! and Inverness etc. for Lib Dems

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 12:07 am

Really does look like a mixture of extraordinary results - some Labour holds in very tight marginals but losses in other areas, including ones they expected to be rock solid. But all this still hearsay and tip-offs.

Hornsey and WoodGreen going LibDem? 12% swing if true.
Newcastle Central going LibDem? That would be astonishing - quite astonishing.

by Richard May 6th, 2005 at 12:08 am

Yup - turnout is the only believable story so far. All those people gloating the other day about spread betting low must be feeling a bit green round the gills.

by Peter Ellis May 6th, 2005 at 12:08 am

I’m wondering if Labour may hang on in some of the tighter marginals because their warnings to potential LDs over the dangers of the Tories may have been heeded - whereas they will do worse in the ‘lesser marginals’ (eg. Broxtowe) - As Bob Worcester predicted incidentally

by alex May 6th, 2005 at 12:08 am

My prediction. If Labour get a majority of less than 40 TB will be out next week. Ironic because if he’d gone last week it would be 140!

by Roger May 6th, 2005 at 12:09 am

I am beginning to regret selling my LDs at a loss of 8 seats

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 12:09 am

Hornsey and Wood Green is Lib Dem by 2000 to 3000, a very reliable source tells me.

Fantastic result!!!

by Michael May 6th, 2005 at 12:09 am

George Galloway ahead!

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 12:10 am

Galloway ahead in BG & Bow (BBC)

by Richard May 6th, 2005 at 12:10 am

George Galloway ahead of Ona King

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:11 am

can’t believe it will be as low as 53. Your sell at 60 may have been prudent though.

by book value May 6th, 2005 at 12:12 am

Milburn very lugubrious on R4

by Charyxena May 6th, 2005 at 12:13 am

How is it that the people of Sunderland can count and declare TWO sears within an hour, and similar sized towns across Britain can’t produce a declaration within two hours for even one seat?

by Gladstone May 6th, 2005 at 12:13 am

From 2001 cumulative total of declarations
0000 6
0030 29
0100 88
0130 158

it must be the higher turnoput which is delaying things and all the postal votes

by ChrisA May 6th, 2005 at 12:13 am

My fiancee voted in Hornsey (she lives in East Finchey); she was Labour, went Lib Dem - absolutely ‘loathes’ Barbara Roache. So makes sense to me that the LDs win it.. on this admittedly tiny straw poll.

by sean May 6th, 2005 at 12:14 am

Winning a record third term for Labour doesn’t get you chucked out. Nobody else has ever done it for Labour - The most successful Labour leader in history will give up undefeated when he feels like it, somtime in the next four years.

by Will May 6th, 2005 at 12:14 am

Labour vote in Barnsley Central down

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:14 am

What is the figure for national turnout looking like???
Anyone help?

by crispin May 6th, 2005 at 12:15 am

Lol yes. Blair has wrecked the third term for Labour.

by Shazz May 6th, 2005 at 12:15 am

david davis wins!!! (unofficial but true)

by chris_g May 6th, 2005 at 12:16 am

David Davis have increased his majority

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:16 am

Looks like 35% max for Labour

by Ave it 05 May 6th, 2005 at 12:16 am

BBC1 - Davis claiming increased majority in H&H.

by Election Junkie May 6th, 2005 at 12:16 am

I want to hold off the party stuff in a way tonight - it’s too fun this! But I think there will be blood all over the Labour HQ for Blair after this. The left will savage him.

by RichardH May 6th, 2005 at 12:16 am

R4: Tory majority up in Haltemprice

by Innocent Abroad May 6th, 2005 at 12:17 am

Turnout(now this is a guess) seems to be up around 63% to 65%.

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:18 am

Unofficial but pretty clear - Tories win Hove.

by Informed Tory May 6th, 2005 at 12:18 am

Thank the Lord for Davis!!!!!

by jude May 6th, 2005 at 12:18 am

I am still hopeful of 65 + Lib Dem that 10.00pm sell off a massive over reaction.

by john May 6th, 2005 at 12:19 am

George Galloway to be PM within 10 years

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 12:19 am

R4: Medway, Chatham, Gillingham not looking good for Labour

by Innocent Abroad May 6th, 2005 at 12:19 am

Agree completely. Only responding to highly political comments. Will stick to poll / betting stuff unless provoked !

by Will May 6th, 2005 at 12:20 am

BBC:

SNP may have taken first seat in Scotland from Labour

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:20 am

How is it that ITV are showing 13 seats in, whereas BBC and Sky are on 5. Are ITV counting unofficial nods as declarations?

by Andrew T May 6th, 2005 at 12:20 am

ITV has called 15 seats, BBC & Sky only 5. What gives ?

by Aloysius May 6th, 2005 at 12:21 am

Do we know for sure what the David Davis rumour is yet?

If you don’t want to say outloud, you can email me

by John Miles May 6th, 2005 at 12:23 am

Rotherham figures?

by Election Junkie May 6th, 2005 at 12:24 am

Also. Why are ITV so ahead of the BBC on seats announced?

by John Miles May 6th, 2005 at 12:25 am

Roterham 8.8% swing Lab->LD. BNP save deposit with 6.6%. Tories down.

by Election Junkie May 6th, 2005 at 12:25 am

TONY BLAIR HAS CLOSED THE ELECTION.
LAB 8 CON 0 LD 0

by john May 6th, 2005 at 12:26 am

LibDem second and Tories only third in rotherham - big turnaround there.

by Anglo May 6th, 2005 at 12:26 am

Bullseye 26%

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 12:27 am

Rotherham Lab -11.1% Libs & BNP both +6.6%

by BGR May 6th, 2005 at 12:27 am

It comes from David Davis

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:27 am

Said to have gained Putney - ITV must be calling seats based on strong rumours.

by Max May 6th, 2005 at 12:28 am

Well done Bullseye, a solid swing.

by book value May 6th, 2005 at 12:28 am

Looks like the LidDems are increasing their vote in safe labour seats

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:29 am

Congrats to Bullseye’s strong second.

by observer May 6th, 2005 at 12:30 am

Based on the results so far, I’d say the Lib Dems will probably do a bit better than the exit polls are suggesting. Likely in the low 60s in terms of seats.

by A.H. Matlock May 6th, 2005 at 12:30 am

ITV Says CON GAIN Putney

by afleitch May 6th, 2005 at 12:30 am

Tories have taken Putney. The first Lab-Tory marginal.

by Richard May 6th, 2005 at 12:30 am

Conservatives have taken Putney

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:31 am

Putney declaration confirms swing to Conservatives. Labour are losing 1500+ everywhere.

http://www.vote2005forum.org.uk

by Brian May 6th, 2005 at 12:32 am

Conservative Gain at Putney. Take that, Tony!

by A.H. Matlock May 6th, 2005 at 12:33 am

Putney, Con!!!!!

by Shazz May 6th, 2005 at 12:33 am

6% swing in Putney for a Tory gain!

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 12:33 am

Putney seems to confirm earlier Tory confidence in London.

by Election Swing May 6th, 2005 at 12:34 am

Putney!!!!!!!!!Wonderful!

by jude May 6th, 2005 at 12:34 am

Early wicket. 11 for 1

by alex May 6th, 2005 at 12:34 am

Putney: swing 6.5%. LD making extra gains on top of this. Looking very sick for Labour. Maj 20 maximum

by Ave it 05 May 6th, 2005 at 12:34 am

PUTNEY - 52 Conservative Target overall. Excellent. Also a Tory that looks like that - very happy !

by john May 6th, 2005 at 12:34 am

Labour keeps Newcastle Central

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:35 am

And what a nice fresh faced young Tory she is in Putney!

(Sorry - but it’s true!)

by Richard May 6th, 2005 at 12:35 am

Big swings in safe Labour seats to LibDems. Hard to see a unified theme yet. An interesting night…

by jonathan May 6th, 2005 at 12:37 am

Whopping 11% swing to Lib Dems in Newcastle Central

by afleitch May 6th, 2005 at 12:37 am

12% swing not enough for the LibDems in Newcastle C but would be enough for Cambridge, maybe Hornsey and Islington S?

by Election Junkie May 6th, 2005 at 12:37 am

If it carries on like this, Tony can pack his bags.

by Charyxena May 6th, 2005 at 12:38 am

Labour are going to get a hiding tonight. The Exit Poll may be overestimating their majority.

by A.H. Matlock May 6th, 2005 at 12:38 am

ITV now 25 - 13 ahead of BBC. Where does their data come from ? Called Putney 5 mins b4 BBC.

by Aloysius May 6th, 2005 at 12:38 am

Yes, the Putney MP is HOT! In every sense! Come on the Blues! etc. I may well be eating my words in about 10 minutes of course.

by sean May 6th, 2005 at 12:39 am

Well … I’m not saying we’re at hung parliament territory but that Lab lead of 66 does look a bit OTT doesn’t it?

by Richard May 6th, 2005 at 12:40 am

Second lesson of the evening - *no* model of swing works. Uniform swing, proportional swing, two-way swings, three-way swings whatever. All rubbish. Different constituencies are behaving completely inconsistently.

Conclusion: Pollsters cannot predict this election, and possibly no future election.

by Peter Ellis May 6th, 2005 at 12:41 am

Score so far: Labour -1, Tories +1

Tories Winning!

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 12:42 am

BBC:

Comservatives gain Medway

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:42 am

Tories take Medway. Bob Marshall-Andrews has conceded.

This is astonishing folks. I’m not sure Labour are certain to win.

by RichardH May 6th, 2005 at 12:43 am

Looks like Lab could lose all their seats in Kent - Marshall Andrews out

by Ave it 05 May 6th, 2005 at 12:44 am

On the Baxter sheets the loss of Medway would leave a majority of 52

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 12:44 am

The new MP from Putney is a looker…little bit of ache but that can be taken care of.

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:44 am

LibDem win Southport

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:46 am

Mig wins in North East Fife

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:46 am

It’s the war, stupid. The elephant in thr corner.

by andy c May 6th, 2005 at 12:47 am

I am going to go wild with joy if any one of the following happen:

Labour’s majority shrinks to under 40
George Galloway wins Bethnal
Tories win the popular vote
Blair is humiliated

At this stage all that could happen!

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 12:47 am

Southport stays Lib Dem

http://www.vote2005forum.org.uk

by Brian May 6th, 2005 at 12:48 am

Labour in trouble in Gillingham.

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 12:48 am

Miliband holds South Shields. I know it’s not significant but I used to work for him and I just want to declare a public congratulations.

A stunningly intelligence, witty and compassionate guy. The sort of MP that any party would be lucky to have

by John Miles May 6th, 2005 at 12:50 am

Peter Law wins!

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 12:51 am

Cracking result in Southport. I am feeling better and better.

by book value May 6th, 2005 at 12:51 am

SNP hold Angus - gutted.

by Max May 6th, 2005 at 12:51 am

Tory to LibDem swings in Southport and Fife NE. Labour LOSE Blaenau Gwent!

by Election Junkie May 6th, 2005 at 12:51 am

SNP hold Angus.

by Alan J May 6th, 2005 at 12:52 am

Amazing the way certain images capture the night. I’m sure there are and will be LibDem ones, and Labour losses, but the Tory lass in Putney is one of those that will be repeated on TV footage!

by Richard May 6th, 2005 at 12:52 am

I am amazed no one has called this election based on the mood music and early swings. We (Labour) have lost, we’re gone. Well, well Tony was telling the truth (again) about the danger of the LD protest vote wasn’t he? (and Charlie lying?)

by southyorkslabourarmy May 6th, 2005 at 12:52 am

Robert from earlier thread - don’t appear to be hearing much from you now - looks like I was drinking coffee earlier….

Max - agree with you re Angus/SNP - they are still a small irrelevant party

by Ave it 05 May 6th, 2005 at 12:53 am

The exit poll must be wrong on Lib Dems. And the Labour majority won’t be 66. Looks now much better than 2 hrs ago. Tories will be stuck around 33-35% but will gain seats based on their precision campaign in the marginals. With this tactic they never will be in majority…

by jonathan May 6th, 2005 at 12:53 am

Peterborough North, Portsmouth South, Elmet all go Tory (post on Anthony’s site).

Tony Blair is toast.

by RichardH May 6th, 2005 at 12:55 am

Best result for Labour now short of 60+ would possibly be a hung parliament. Replace Blair with Brown, have another election, and pray for a landslide. A small majority with Brown looking to control a fractious party could mean big trouble.

by alex May 6th, 2005 at 12:55 am

Bollocks. This is a good night for the Tories so far; and it’s an excellent springboard for the next election. Yay!

by sean May 6th, 2005 at 12:56 am

Marcus Wood fails in Torbay.

by observer May 6th, 2005 at 12:57 am

I think the bookmakers will be most pleased

by afleitch May 6th, 2005 at 12:58 am

According to Sky a recount in Battersea

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 12:58 am

jonathan is that going to be the Labour spin

Yeah we lost many many seats, but the Tories will not be a majority

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:00 am

Good to be rid of Blair (hard to see any way out of him, at least based on the current trends). He did big services in his time but enough is enough. Howard will probably get a boost which is good as he will never be the PM…

by jonathan May 6th, 2005 at 1:00 am

Recount in Battersea. Apparently Tories to take Stockton South.

by Richard May 6th, 2005 at 1:04 am

LibDems to hold Torbay

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:05 am

Marcus a defeated man…

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:06 am

LD majority down, swing to Lab and UKIP but nothing to Con.

by book value May 6th, 2005 at 1:09 am

Marcus Wood in Torbay - weird result. Swing mainly appeared to be LD to Lab?! Tory vote share static.

by andy c May 6th, 2005 at 1:09 am

According to this person Ian on Anthony’s site Labour to lose Wirral West and South and Wimbledon. He’s got everything else right so far!

by RichardH May 6th, 2005 at 1:09 am

The Liberal majority in Torbay has been reduced by two thirds. Marcus has done well to hold his vote in the face of a large UKIP vote.

by A.H. Matlock May 6th, 2005 at 1:10 am

It’s because of the UKIP vote I think. Interesting one to watch in the south west that.

by Richard May 6th, 2005 at 1:10 am

What do people think Labour’s majority will be?, or have they fallen into hung parliament territory?

Watching with interest from Canada.

by JV May 6th, 2005 at 1:11 am

Yeah, I just don’t get that one. Tactical voting by… er… no.. can’t be. Then what?!

by sean May 6th, 2005 at 1:11 am

Swing away from Lib Dem to Lab and Con. Swing from Con to UKIP. Leaves Con in place, Lab and UKIP up. As to why the LD reverse, dunno.

by Peter Ellis May 6th, 2005 at 1:13 am

Unpopular local council

by alex May 6th, 2005 at 1:15 am

Blackburn - Jack Straw wins, but loses 4000 votes, Con lose 4000 thousand, and Lib Dem gain 5000. Jack Straw being loudly jeered during his speech.

by Brian May 6th, 2005 at 1:15 am

LD miss out Blaydon but gain Yardley.

by Election Junkie May 6th, 2005 at 1:16 am

LibDems seem to be doing fantastically well in all the seats where it does them no good whatsoever. Massive boost for them to nearly get second in Blackburn, for instance, but highly debateable whether the swing will be anything ike that in their marginal targets.

by Anglo May 6th, 2005 at 1:16 am

LibDems claim to have taken Estelle Morris seat

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:17 am

Feel sick. Currently wishing I’d voted Labour.

by AT May 6th, 2005 at 1:17 am

Conservatives take IIford North

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:18 am

Labour have never had a ‘moderate’ majority. They have either had majorities of 5 or less or 99 or more.

It would appear this is set to continue!

by Ave it 05 May 6th, 2005 at 1:18 am

Forget my last post - if there’s a recount at Manchester Withington (and assuming it’s the LDs in contention not tories) then that is a very significant result.

by Anglo May 6th, 2005 at 1:19 am

Finchley, Harlow, Hampstead all to go Tory … allegedly.

by RichardH May 6th, 2005 at 1:20 am

SNP take Western Isles

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:20 am

ITV are STILL predicting a Lab majority of 66. Whistling in the dark, surely…? God knows the result of this, certainly not ITV.

by sean May 6th, 2005 at 1:22 am

Manchester Withington was 19k Lab, 7.7 k Lib, 5k Con last time and there’s a recount…

by Anglo May 6th, 2005 at 1:22 am

Conservatives take Peterborough
by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:22 am

Conservatives take Peterborough

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:22 am

Tories take Peterborough. Good riddance…

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:23 am

Con gain Peterboro to no surprise.

by book value May 6th, 2005 at 1:23 am

Conservative Gain Peterborough!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here we go here we go………….
by SJK May 6th, 2005 at 1:24 am Recount at Manchester Withington? Labour had at 11500 majority in 2001 over Lib Dem. Could Labour have a disaster? Labour are easily taking the typical Labour seats.

Conservative gain Peterborough!

http://www.vote2005forum.org.uk

by Brian May 6th, 2005 at 1:23 am

It’s still too early to place too much on the Putney result.

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 1:23 am

7% swing to Tories in Peterborough: significant…

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:25 am

Is there a local factor? Who runs the local council?

by John Miles May 6th, 2005 at 1:25 am

7% swing in Peterborough! Clark - cheerio cheerio cheerio!

by Ave it 05 May 6th, 2005 at 1:25 am

Looks like alot of people who have back Labour to have a big majority are going to loses alot of money
by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:26 am

Sorry to see Marcus Wood got beat in Torbay, all the best Marcus we’ll see you again soon!!!!!!!!!!!
by SJK May 6th, 2005 at 1:26 am

The LibDem votes in Torbay dropped.
Conservatives take Newbury from LibDems
by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:28 am

7% swing in Peterborough! Clark - cheerio cheerio cheerio!

by Ave it 05 May 6th, 2005 at 1:25 am

can’t see Hampstead falling.

by book value May 6th, 2005 at 1:26 am

Also, are the local council results being announced tonight?

by John Miles May 6th, 2005 at 1:26 am

Clark was very unpopular in Peterborough.

by Election Junkie May 6th, 2005 at 1:27 am

I wonder if Roger, John Riley and Robert are ready to drink the Hemlock yet?

by A.H. Matlock May 6th, 2005 at 1:27 am

Manchester Withington? !!

by alex May 6th, 2005 at 1:28 am

Labour are in big trouble - big trouble. A Tory LibDem pincer movement in progress.
Or should one just say that people have had enough of Tony Blair’s Labour?

by Richard May 6th, 2005 at 1:28 am

The Libdems just transformed Holborn & St Pancras from a safe seat into a marginal!

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:28 am

CON GAIN NEWBURY

by afleitch May 6th, 2005 at 1:28 am

LOL Meltdown eh???

by jude May 6th, 2005 at 1:29 am

hate to stir the hornets, but it looks indeed like immigration has played very well for the Tories - in London, Essex, South East, etc. Labour reaping, and rightly, the sour crop of having tripled immigration without actually mentioning it to anyone…

by sean May 6th, 2005 at 1:29 am

These Labour to Lib Dem swings are incredible. Apart from losing some “safe” seats to Lib Dems, for the first time Labour will have many wafer thin marginals to Lib Dems in the next election.

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 1:29 am

Just heard Brown on BBC. He keeps talking about a “3rd Labour government”, he’s not saying 3rd majority. Is Brown only saying “government” because he might be thinking Labour will be reduced to a minority?

by JV May 6th, 2005 at 1:30 am

Just drawing up the designs for my “Don’t blame me, I voted for Tony”
t-shirts. Am I the only one listening to Tony King and Andy Marr? I’ll say it again, we (Labour) are gone. See my previous post

by southyorkslabourarmy May 6th, 2005 at 1:30 am

Cheadle stays Libdem

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:31 am

Lib Dem hold Cheadle but lose Newbury. I think the mobilisation of the countryside set has been important in Newbury.

by Anglo May 6th, 2005 at 1:32 am

Recount at ceredigion must mean Libs close to Nationals.

by Anglo May 6th, 2005 at 1:33 am

They are still using the exit poll projection, apparently because the results are quite all over the place that they do not yet have enough results to do a computer projection.

by Gary Barford May 6th, 2005 at 1:34 am

Lynton Crosby very early said Tories expected to win 40-50 seats, was that so they could say they in fact did better than they expected?

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 1:34 am

On Anthony’s site I have queries Hampstead - I cannot believe it - not wishful thinking - just cannot believe it. Having said that this is feeling like 1997 in reverse - boy it’s exciting at least!! Any other tips - I thought Tessa J looked very quesy on BBC - my next door seat and I know that this is typical Chablis-quaffing Lab-LD switch territory (I want to buy a house there actually if anyone selling?)

by Jonathan Sharp May 6th, 2005 at 1:34 am

Sky predicting majority of 80?!? WTF?

by Anglo May 6th, 2005 at 1:34 am

The Labour vote in Cheadle totally whet down. Thats seems to have saved the LibDems

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:34 am

Sky forecasting Labour majority of 80 !!!
Optomistic !?

by Andy May 6th, 2005 at 1:36 am

Labour keeps Birmingham Edgbaston

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:37 am

So Labour hold Edgbaston. That’s great news for them.

by Trebuchet May 6th, 2005 at 1:38 am

Hold the hemlock good hold in Edgbaston, what’s going on?

by southyorkslabourarmy May 6th, 2005 at 1:38 am

Arise SIR Lynton?! Very clever dude. Dog whistle worked, bigtime. Yes this is the most intriguing elections I think I can remember - after one of the dullest campaigns.

by sean May 6th, 2005 at 1:39 am

Lab hold Ynys Mon. Think I’m on for a negative score in the January competition!

by book value May 6th, 2005 at 1:40 am

Sky predicting 186 Tory seats Lib Dems 66

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:40 am

Labour look like they’re fighting back

by alex May 6th, 2005 at 1:40 am

southyorkslabourarmy - for goodness sake why didn’t Labour get rid of Blair, so they’d win?

by AT May 6th, 2005 at 1:40 am

Labour keeps Ynys Mon!

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:40 am

Lab have held a number of key seats eg Pendle, Ynys Mon - moving back in their favour

by Ave it 05 May 6th, 2005 at 1:41 am

agreed, the most interesting election I have seen.

by book value May 6th, 2005 at 1:41 am

This election is absolutely all over the shop!

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:42 am

No surprise in Edgbaston, Staurt is a right wing labour m.p for a right wing district.

Plus UKIP seems to shore big their

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:42 am

Labour held Pendle

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:43 am

It seems as though the Conservative vote is surging in the South of England, but remaining static or weakening in the Midlands.

by A.H. Matlock May 6th, 2005 at 1:44 am

Labour holding a whole batch of marginals

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 1:45 am

as someone who never fails to notice the bias of the bbc….it’s pretty clear itv are being much more pro-labour than good odd aunty bbc…..i’m sticking with bbc….

by chris_g May 6th, 2005 at 1:46 am

S & C LD hold

by Peter W. May 6th, 2005 at 1:46 am

Labour held Tamworth. It seems they’re doing well now.

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:46 am

This is very strange - the swings are all over the place…

by jonathan May 6th, 2005 at 1:47 am

Yes Labour are holding a batch of marginals, but the swing against them at best is still 3-4% (Edgbaston). At worst 9-10%. This is still too close to call - but I’m gonna have a go - Labour by 37. What I said three weeks ago!

by sean May 6th, 2005 at 1:47 am

Dunbartonshire East went to the Libdemsm but Aberdeen South stayed Labour

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:48 am

Labour hold Tamworth. Looking solid for them in the West Midlands.

by Trebuchet May 6th, 2005 at 1:48 am

Peter Snow forecast

Labour Majority:

Lab: 357
Con: 201
LD: 59

BBC predicting better night for Tories than Sky

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:49 am

Majority 68

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:49 am

BBC projection Lab 357 Con 201 LD 59 Lab maj 68

by Adrian May 6th, 2005 at 1:49 am

Hornsey & Wood Green gained by the Libdems!

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:49 am

Lib Dems gain Hornsey!

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:50 am

BBC now forecasting a 68 Labour Majority.

by Andy May 6th, 2005 at 1:50 am

So the BBC exit polls were right.

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:51 am

So, finger in air - a lot of “churn” in the vote with big swings all over the place, but with losses and gains balancing to some degree so Labour still gets a reasonable majority? I can live with that.

by Peter Ellis May 6th, 2005 at 1:51 am

Jon Snow predicting 68 majority. Not a total Labour meltdown after all.

by Agent Smith May 6th, 2005 at 1:51 am

Swing from Labour to Cons in Tamworth was < 3%. They’ve just held Northfield with a 3% swing. I guess we’ll have a few more weird results but they’re starting to come in at the exit poll level now.

by Trebuchet May 6th, 2005 at 1:51 am

Labour held Hove.

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:52 am

Labour hold Hove. Hm. Labour by 70. Sigh. It was looking exciting there for a while..

by sean May 6th, 2005 at 1:52 am

Oona King’s face says she has lost

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:52 am

Birmingham Northfield, poor Frank Sweeney of WRP only polling 34 votes… could this be the lowest?

by Brian May 6th, 2005 at 1:52 am

Hornsey and Wood Green Lib Dem gain on a 15% swing!

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 1:52 am

Would liked to have seen Nick Boles win Hove: he’s cute!

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:53 am

LDs gain Hornsey & Wood Green.

by Alan J May 6th, 2005 at 1:53 am

Broadly, but with seats like Hornsey going, LD may well do better than BBC said. Looks to me like Con and Lib have both been aiming behind the front line at seats which aren’t so well defended.

by Peter Ellis May 6th, 2005 at 1:54 am

Looks like the Tories are doing better in London than anywhere else.

by Andy May 6th, 2005 at 1:54 am

420 votes in Hove!

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:54 am

Hornsey & Wood Green falls to 15% swing to LD.
Andrew Marr of BBC muttered ruefully “That’s the war. . .”
Barbara Roche was very unpopular there. Real War Hawk.

by Gladstone May 6th, 2005 at 1:54 am

Labour hold their south coast seats: two Southampton seats, Portsmouth North, Hove

by Printz May 6th, 2005 at 1:54 am

Theresa May holds on with decent majority

by John Miles May 6th, 2005 at 1:55 am

Recount at Guildford!

by Anglo May 6th, 2005 at 1:55 am

Lab hold Hampstead.

by book value May 6th, 2005 at 1:55 am

As a LD I’m glad Theresa May is back: I have time for her.

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 1:56 am

Theresa May won.

by Andrea May 6th, 2005 at 1:56 am

Hmmm. Could the decapitation strategy have been a blind to keep some of the top Tories at home and stop them campaigning around the country?

by Peter Ellis May 6th, 2005 at 1:56 am

Well 420 is hardly a landslide…Boles put up a good fight

by VoteNow May 6th, 2005 at 1:58 am

Well it was all very exciting for a bit. Labour romping away now.

by alex May 6th, 2005 at 1:59 am

Recount at Shipley where Labour defend under 1500 majority. That kinda suggests that the swing against Labour there wasn’t so big either. The odious Nick Griffin fails in Keighley where there is a swing from the tories to Labour. Tory voters appear to have switched to BNP

by Trebuchet May 6th, 2005 at 2:00 am

Theresa May nearly doubled her majority in Maidenhead. I feel very gratified just now

Hove is a bitter disappointment, however.

by A.H. Matlock May 6th, 2005 at 2:00 am

Labour increase majority in Keighley as BNP squeeze the Tory vote, Can’t help feeling there’s a bit of irony in there…

by Anglo May 6th, 2005 at 2:01 am

BNP 9% in Keighley. Shame.

by Chrisco May 6th, 2005 at 2:01 am