The 2006 PBC Prediction Competition - Entries
Who’ll be PB.C’s top forecaster of 2006?
With so many question marks hanging over the UK domestic political scene it’s is going to be quite a challenge working out what is going to happen in the next twelve months. Will Blair and Kennedy go? Who will be the new leaders? Is the poll boost for Cameron’s Conservatives just a temporary thing or will it be sustained.
All these issues and more are covered in our competition for the year which has been designed so we can see how entrants are doing as the year progresses. There will be a prize for the winner. Please post your answers in the thread below by 2359 GMT on January 3rd 2006. Include a valid email address on the comment form - this will not be published.
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Please do not use this thread to post comments on the competition. This is for entries only.
As in all PB.C competitions the final decision on all matters relating to the competition is mine and I am right even when I am wrong.
1. For how many weeks of 2006 will Tony Blair continue to be Labour leader? One hundred points for a correct answer losing ten points for each complete week out.
2. For how many weeks of 2006 will Charles Kennedy continue to be Lib Dem leader? Fifty points for a correct answer losing five points for each complete week out.
3. Who will be Labour leader on Christmas Day 2006? One hundred points for a correct answer.
4. Who will be Lib Dem leader on Christmas Day 2006? Fifty points for a correct answer.
5. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be Labour’s net losses or gains of council seats? Indicate plus or minus. One hundred points for a correct answer losing one point for each three seats out.
6. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be the Liberal Democrats’ net losses or gains of council seats? Indicate plus or minus. One hundred points for a correct answer losing one point for each three seats out.
7. What will be Cameron’s Conservatives’ best position in relation to Labour in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006? Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
8. What will be the Lib Dems’ best share in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006? Thirty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
9. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the February 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
10. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the June 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
11. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the September 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
12. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the December 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
Entries.
69 comments to “Predicting the most unpredictable year”
1. Blair will continue for 52 weeks.
2. Kennedy will be replaced after 32 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Menzies Campbell
5. Labour -330 council seats
6. Lib Dems -180 council seats
7. Tory 8 point lead
8. LD 23 points
9. Tory 3 point lead
10. Tory 7 point lead
11. Tory 6 point lead
12. Tory 6 point lead
by Mike Smithson December 28th, 2005 at 7:49 am
1) 52 weeks
2) 39 weeks
3) Tony Blair
4) Ed Davey
5) Labour lose 400 council seats
6) Liberal Democrats gain 50 council seats
7) Conservative lead of 3% over Labour
24%
9) Conservative lead of 1% over Labour
10) Conservative lead of 4% over Labour
11) Conservatives level with Labour
12) Conservative lead of 1% over Labour
by Harry Hayfield December 28th, 2005 at 8:49 am
1. 52 weeks
2. 40 weeks
3. Blair
4. Campbell
5. Down 420 seats
6. Unchanged
7. Twelve point lead
8. 21%
9. 4% Tory lead
10. 7% Tory lead
11. 11% Tory lead
12. 5% Tory lead
by James December 28th, 2005 at 9:28 am
1. Blair 52 weeks
2. Kennedy 52 weeks
3. Blair
4. Kennedy
5. Lab -540
6. Lib Dem +140
7. Tory 5 point lead
8. LD max share 25%
9. Feb Tories +2% lead
10. June Tories +3% lead
11. Sep Tories +1% lead
12. Dec Tories level 0% lead
by Michael December 28th, 2005 at 9:38 am
welcome back, will have a go, in the meantime the Canadian election seems to be tightening, the conservatives appear to be the pre christmas gainers and are now close in Ontario, although the individual polls do vary, but there does seem to have been a trend.
If this continues they could be the largest party in seats, can they get a co-alition?
by david (s) December 28th, 2005 at 9:50 am
1. 52
2. 10
3. Blair
4. Campbell
5. -580
6. + 130
7. +11
8. 24
9. +3
10 +11
11 +9
12 +8
by david (s) December 28th, 2005 at 9:57 am
1. 52
2. 23
3. Blair
4. Ed Davey
5. -270
6. -40
7. +9
8. 23
9. +3
10. +6
11. +4
12. +5
by Max December 28th, 2005 at 10:14 am
1. Blair will continue for 52 weeks.
2. Kennedy will be replaced after 26 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Lynne Featherstone
5. Labour -320 council seats
6. Lib Dems -220 council seats
7. Tory 10 point lead
8. LD 24 points
9. Tory 6 point lead
10. Tory 10 point lead
11. Tory 2 point lead
12. Tory 7 point lead
by Innocent Abroad December 28th, 2005 at 10:26 am
1. For how many weeks of 2006 will Tony Blair continue to be Labour leader?
52
2. For how many weeks of 2006 will Charles Kennedy continue to be Lib Dem leader?
52
3. Who will be Labour leader on Christmas Day 2006?
Tony Blair
4. Who will be Lib Dem leader on Christmas Day 2006?
Charles Kennedy
5. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be Labour’s net losses or gains of council seats?
- 250
6. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be the Liberal Democrats’ net losses or gains of council seats?
- 150
7. What will be Cameron’s Conservatives’ best position in relation to Labour in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006?
Conservative eight point lead.
8. What will be the Lib Dems’ best share in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006?
22%
9. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the February 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+ 2%
10. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the June 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+ 3%
11. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the September 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+ 0% (level)
12. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the December 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+ 4%
…and 13. How many House and Senate seats will the Democrats gain in the November midterms?
House 9
Senate 3
by Ben December 28th, 2005 at 10:36 am
I will buy comment No 4 Michael except for Q5 and 6 on LG seats in May:
Q5. -200
Q6. + 90.
NB. Q4 Ming, No Way!
by beth December 28th, 2005 at 10:47 am
1) 52 weeks
2) 31 weeks
3) Tony Blair
4) Mark Oaten
5) -347 seats
6) + 86 seats
7) 4% lead
24%
9)+1%
10) level
11) +2%
12) +4%
by Nick Luder December 28th, 2005 at 11:15 am
1. For how many weeks of 2006 will Tony Blair continue to be Labour leader?
52
2. For how many weeks of 2006 will Charles Kennedy continue to be Lib Dem leader?
40
3. Who will be Labour leader on Christmas Day 2006?
Tony Blair
4. Who will be Lib Dem leader on Christmas Day 2006?
Ming the Merciless.
5. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be Labour’s net losses or gains of council seats?
200 loss
6. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be the Liberal Democrats’ net losses or gains of council seats?
50 loss.
7. What will be Cameron’s Conservatives’ best position in relation to Labour in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006?
6% lead
8. What will be the Lib Dems’ best share in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006?
23%
9. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the February 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+4%
10. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the June 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out. 6%
11. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the September 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+4%
12. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the December 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+2%
by Sean Fear December 28th, 2005 at 11:16 am
1. 52
2. 26
3. Tony Blair
4. Simon Hughes
5. -400
6. +150
7. +7%
8. 23%
9. +2%
10. +7%
11. +5%
12. +3%
by Houndtang December 28th, 2005 at 12:11 pm
1. Blair will continue for 52 weeks.
2. Kennedy will be replaced after 32 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Menzies Campbell
5. Labour -330 council seats
6. Lib Dems -180 council seats
7. Tory 8 point lead
8. LD 23 points
9. Tory 3 point lead
10. Tory 7 point lead
11. Tory 6 point lead
12. Tory 6 point lead
by Tabman December 28th, 2005 at 12:21 pm
1. Blair will continue for 52 weeks.
2. Kennedy will be replaced after 27 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Mark Oaten (though I wish it weren’t so )
5. Labour -400 council seats
6. Lib Dems -110 council seats
7. Tory 12 point lead
8. LD 26 points
9. Tory 4 point lead
10. Tory 10 point lead
11. Tory 8 point lead
12. Tory 4 point lead
by Tabman December 28th, 2005 at 12:25 pm
Mike - please delete 14, not sure how that got in there!
by Tabman December 28th, 2005 at 12:26 pm
1 - Blair will be Labour leader for all 52 weeks of 2006.
2 - Kennedy will be Lib dem leader for 17 weeks during 2006.
3 - Tony Blair will be Labour leader on Christmas Day, 2006.
4 - Mark Oaten will be Lib Dem leader on Christmas Day, 2006.
5 - Labour will lose 500 council seats in May, 2006.
6 - Lib Dems will gain 40 council seats in May, 2006.
7 - Best Conservative position during 2006 - lead of 7 points.
8 - Best Lib Dem ICM share for 2006 - 23%.
9 - Conservative position Feb 2006 - 3 point lead.
10 - Conservative position June 2006 - 7 point lead.
11 - Conservative position September 2006 - 6 point lead.
12 - Conservative position December 2006 - 6 point lead.
by A H Matlock December 28th, 2005 at 12:46 pm
1: 52
2: 52
3: Tony Blair
4: Charles Kennedy
5: -383
6: -39
7: 6%
8: 23%
9: 3%
10: 6%
11: 5%
12: 4%
by 2jamie December 28th, 2005 at 1:08 pm
1.52
2. 35
3. Blair
4. Oaten
5. Loss of 290
6. Loss of 120
7. Lead of six points
8. 22%
9. Three points ahead
10. Five points ahead.
11. Two points ahead
12. Level in the polls
by laptop December 28th, 2005 at 1:15 pm
1. 52
2. 25
3. Anthony Charles Lynton Blair
4. Menzies Campbell
5. -299
6. -70
7. Tory +7 points lead
8. 25 per cent
9. Tory 3% lead
10. Tory 7% lead
11. Tory 5% lead
12. Tory 5% lead
by Julian H December 28th, 2005 at 1:26 pm
1. Blair will continue for 5 weeks.
2. Kennedy will be replaced after 22 weeks
3. Gordon Brown
4. Menzies Campbell
5. Labour -450 council seats
6. Lib Dems -200 council seats
7. Tory 10 point lead
8. LD 25 points
9. Tory 4 point lead
10. Tory 4 point lead
11. Tory 4 point lead
12. Tory 4 point lead
by Icarus December 28th, 2005 at 1:28 pm
1. 52 weeks
2. 52 weeks
3. Blair
4. Kennedy
5. Down 310 seats
6. Up 80 seats
7. 4% lead
8. 23%
9. 4% Tory lead
10. 3% Tory lead
11. 1% Tory lead
12. 1% Labour lead
by Alan J December 28th, 2005 at 2:33 pm
1. For how many weeks of 2006 will Tony Blair continue to be Labour leader? One hundred points for a correct answer losing ten points for each complete week out.
52 weeks
2. For how many weeks of 2006 will Charles Kennedy continue to be Lib Dem leader? Fifty points for a correct answer losing five points for each complete week out.
52 weeks
3. Who will be Labour leader on Christmas Day 2006? One hundred points for a correct answer.
Tony Blair
4. Who will be Lib Dem leader on Christmas Day 2006? Fifty points for a correct answer.
Charles Kennedy
5. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be Labour’s net losses or gains of council seats? Indicate plus or minus. One hundred points for a correct answer losing one point for each three seats out.
-380
6. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be the Liberal Democrats’ net losses or gains of council seats? Indicate plus or minus. One hundred points for a correct answer losing one point for each three seats out.
-200
7. What will be Cameron’s Conservatives’ best position in relation to Labour in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006? Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
13% lead
8. What will be the Lib Dems’ best share in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006? Thirty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
21%
9. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the February 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
3% Tory lead
10. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the June 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
6% Tory lead
11. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the September 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
13% Tory lead
12. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the December 2006 Guardian ICM poll? Indicate plus or minus. Fifty for a correct answer losing 10 for each percentage point out.
11% Tory lead
by Kevin Alcock December 28th, 2005 at 3:23 pm
1. 52 Blair will continue for 52 weeks of 2006
2. 30 Kennedy
3. Tony Blair as Labour leader on Christmas day 2006
4. Kennedy as Lib Dem.
5. Loss 300 for Labour.
6. Loss 100 for Lib Dems.
7. Tories 15 points ahead of Labour.
8. Lib Dems poll 20 points at best.
9. Tories 10 points ahead in Feb
10. Tories 12 points up in June
11. Tories 14 points up in Sept
12. Tories 11 points up in Dec.
by Gavin December 28th, 2005 at 4:09 pm
1. 52 weeks
2. 16 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Sarah Teather
5. -431
6. +85
7. 13 point Con lead
8. 25%
9. 2 point Con lead
10. 8 point Con lead
11. 13 point Con lead
12. 10 point Con lead
by Steven W December 28th, 2005 at 4:16 pm
1. 52
2. 52
3. Blair
4. Kennedy
5. -500
6. -50
7. +6
8. 22
9. +3
10. +4
11. +5
12. +6
by Andy Cooke December 28th, 2005 at 4:37 pm
1.52
2.23
3.Tony Blair
4.Menzies Campbell
5.Labour -290
6.Libs -180
7.Tory 7 point lead
8.22%
9.+3
10.+4
11.+7
12.+6
by Hagmark December 28th, 2005 at 5:10 pm
1 . 52 weeks
2. 40 weeks
3 Tony Blair
4.Mark Oaten
5. Labour -250
6.Lib Dems +10
7. Tory 10 point lead
8. LD 24
9.Tory 4 point lead.
10 level
11 tory -1
12 tory -3
by dez December 28th, 2005 at 5:16 pm
1. 39 weeks
2. 52 weeks
3. Gordon Brown
4. Charles Kennedy
5. Labour -500
6. Lib Dem +20
7. Con lead 6%
8. LibDem 23%
9. Con lead 2%
10. Con lead 4%
11. Con lead 5%
12. Con lead 4%
by Mike L December 28th, 2005 at 5:43 pm
1. 52 weeks
2. 16 weeks
3. TB
4. Menzies Campbell
5. -175
6. +25
7. +8
8. 21%
9. +2.4%
10 +0.7%
11. +1.5%
12. +3.0%
by ChrisA December 28th, 2005 at 6:05 pm
1) 52 weeks
2) 20 weeks
3) Tony Blair
4) Mark Oaten
5) Labour -350 seats
6) Liberals +120 seats
7) Conservatives 9% lead
Liberals 24%
9) Conservatives 3% lead
10) Conservatives 9% lead
11) Conservatives 4% lead
12) Conservatives 6% lead
by Anatole December 28th, 2005 at 6:38 pm
1 - Blair 52 weeks
2 - Kennedy 42 weeks.
3 - Tony Blair .
4 - Alan Beith (caretaker).
5 - Labour will lose 300 council seats in May 2006.
6 - Lib Dems will lose 200 council seats in May 2006.
7 - Best Conservative position - lead of 9 points.
8 - Best Lib Dem share - 22%.
9 - Conservative position Feb 2006 - 3 point lead.
10 - Conservative position June 2006 - 6 point lead.
11 - Conservative position September 2006 - 9 point lead.
12 - Conservative position December 2006 - 6 point lead.
by Paul M December 28th, 2005 at 6:39 pm
1. 39 weeks
2. 52 weeks
3. Gordon Brown
4. Charles Kennedy
5. -444
6. -108
7. +8
8. 23%
9. +2
10. +5
11. +4
12. +7
by David H December 28th, 2005 at 6:39 pm
1 - 52 weeks
2 - 26 weeks
3 - Tony Blair
4 - Mark Oaten
5 - Minus 175
6 - Minus 100
7 - Plus 10 points
8 - 23%
9 - Plus 4
10 - Plus 10
11 - Plus 7
12 - Plus 5
by Mark Senior December 28th, 2005 at 7:53 pm
1 42 weeks
2 20 weeks
3 Gordon Brown
4 David Laws
5 Minus 250
6 Minus 150
7 Plus 9%
8 23%
9 4% lead
10 6% lead
11 6% lead
12 7% lead
by Andrew Kitching December 28th, 2005 at 10:42 pm
1. 52
2. 52
3. Tony Blair
4. Charles Kennedy
5. down 400
6. down 100
7. a lead of 9%
8. 24%
9. 5% ahead
10. 2% ahead
11. 7% ahead
12. 4% ahead
by JohnLoony December 29th, 2005 at 12:38 am
It’s nice to see most of the Conservative posters persisting with their delusions…
The local elections are extremely unlikely to see either the Lib Dems or Labour lose 200+ seats each.
2006 is one of the smaller rounds of elections so the number of seats chenging hands are therefore always at the bottom of the scale.
Funny how the newly energised Cameroonies don’t listen to Sean Fear - who knows his stuff about local elelctions (and incidently has the most pessimistic view of the May elections).
The Lib Dems have come out of this year’s local by-elections even with the Tories and ahead of Labour.
Anyone who thinks Cameron is going to destroy them has to lookk at this and the opinion polls that show that even under Kennedy there is a solid 18-20% who are not voting for either of the ‘main’ parties.
Incidently ther is no evidence in anything that the long term decline of two party politics is in reverse…
by Dan December 29th, 2005 at 12:39 am
1. 52
2. 15
3. Tony Blair
4. Menzies Campbell
5. -400
6. +150
7. +3
8. 27
9. +1
10. -
11. -1
12. -1
by thomasjpaul December 29th, 2005 at 1:23 am
1. 52 weeks
2. 37 weeks
3. tony blair
4. mark oaten
5. minus 285
6. minus 20
7. plus 7%
8. 23%
9. tories ahead 4%
10. tories ahead 5%
11. tories ahead 6%
12. tories ahead 7%
by richard fowler December 29th, 2005 at 7:55 am
1- 52 weeks
2- 25 weeks
3- Tony Blair
4- Mark Oaten
5- -420
6- -95
7- 9 points lead
8- 22%
9- 4pts lead
10- 7pts lead
11- 9 pts lead
12- 8 pts lead
by Chris (from Paris) December 29th, 2005 at 9:53 am
1. 52 weeks
2. 52 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Charles Kennedy
5. 250
6. 120
7. 5 points Tory lead
8. 21%
9. 2% Tory lead
10. 4% Labour lead
11. 2% Labour lead
12. 6% Labour lead.
by roger December 29th, 2005 at 10:05 am
Not very convinced by what I’m going to write, but here’s we go:
1) 52
2) Blair
3) 22
4) Devay
5) -370
6) -70
7) 7%
22%
9) 6%
10) 5%
11) 3%
12) 3%
by Andrea December 29th, 2005 at 10:29 am
1. 52
2. 6
3. Tony Blair
4. Nick Clegg
5. -180
6. -35
7. +6%
8. 26%
9. 2%
10. 6%
11. 5%
12. 5%
by Russell December 29th, 2005 at 11:33 am
1. 52 weeks
2. 12 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Menzies Campbell
5. -200
6. -50
7. +6%
8. 23%
9. 4%
10. 2%
11. 3%
12. 2%
by Norfolk Yokel December 29th, 2005 at 1:43 pm
1. 52 weeks
2. 8 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Menzies Campbell
5. -150
6. +40
7. +5%
8. 27%
9. +2%
10. +4%
11. +3%
12. +2%
by aschamberlain December 30th, 2005 at 10:10 am
1) 38 weeks
2) 52 weeks
3) Gordon Brown
4) Charles Kennedy
5) -502
6) +229
7) +6%
24%
9) +2%
10) +6%
11) +7%
12) -1%
by Mike O’Carroll December 30th, 2005 at 11:01 am
1) 52 weeks
2) 52 weeks
3) Tony Blair
4) Charles Kennedy
5) Labour net loss 440 council seats
6) Liberal Democrats net gain 30 council seats
7) Conservative lead of 7% over Labour
24%
9) Conservative lead of 4% over Labour
10) Conservative lead of 4% over Labour
11) Conservatives lead of 2% over Labour
12) Conservative lead of 1% over Labour
by Cicero December 30th, 2005 at 11:57 am
1. 21
2. 5
3. Gordon Brown
4. Charles Kennedy
5. 137 Labour losses
6. 18 Lib Dem gains
7. Highest Tory lead over Labour: 18 points
8. Highest Lib Dem percentage: 26
9. + 5
10. + 13
11. + 4
12. - 2
by John13 December 30th, 2005 at 5:09 pm
Re-posting - original seems to have been deleted
1. 52 weeks
2. 52
3. Blair
4. Kennedy
5. -450 seats
6.. -50
7. 7%
8. 23%
9. +3% (Tory)
10. +7% (Tory)
11. +5% (Tory)
12. +5% (Tory)
by John O December 30th, 2005 at 5:36 pm
1. For how many weeks of 2006 will Tony Blair continue to be Labour leader?
52 weeks
2. For how many weeks of 2006 will Charles Kennedy continue to be Lib Dem leader?
52 weeks
3. Who will be Labour leader on Christmas Day 2006?
Tony Blair
4. Who will be Lib Dem leader on Christmas Day 2006?
Charles Kennedy
5. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be Labour’s net losses or gains of council seats?
239 loss
6. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be the Liberal Democrats’ net losses or gains of council seats?
32 gain
7. What will be Cameron’s Conservatives’ best position in relation to Labour in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006?
+ 7%
8. What will be the Lib Dems’ best share in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006?
21%
9. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the February 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+ 4%
10. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the June 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+ 6%
11. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the September 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+ 6%
12. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the December 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+ 6%
by Vino December 30th, 2005 at 7:03 pm
1. 52 weeks
2. 52 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Charles Kennedy
5. -379
6. +40 (my fellow Lib Dems appear most pessimistic on this one!)
7. +9%
8. 24%
9. +9%
10. +7%
11. +6%
12. +4%
by Andrew December 30th, 2005 at 8:06 pm
1. 52
2. 52
3. Tony Blair
4. Charles Kennedy
5. -419
6. +97
7. Tory +4
8. 24%
9. +3
10. -1
11. +1
12. +4
by tom December 30th, 2005 at 9:51 pm
1. 52 weeks
2. 52 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Charles Kennedy
5. -520
6. -70
7. Conservatives 8% lead
8. 23%
9. Conservatives 8% lead
10. Conservatives 6% lead
11. Conservatives 7% lead
12. Conservatives 7% lead
by John December 31st, 2005 at 3:08 am
1. 52
2. 14
3. Blair
4. Hughes
5. Down 240
6. Down 100
7. 5% lead
8. 21%
9. Plus 5%
10. Plus 6%
11. Plus 4%
12. Plus 3%
by Psephologist (Nigel White) December 31st, 2005 at 6:37 pm
1. 52
2. 52
3. TB
4. CK
5. -211
6. -65
7. +7%
8. 23%
9. 4% Tory lead
10. 6% Tory lead
11. 7% Tory lead
12. 5% Tory lead
by Kieran January 1st, 2006 at 10:47 pm
1) 23 weeks
2) 30 weeks
3) Brown
4) Campbell
5) -350
6) +40
7) 5% Tory lead
23%
9) 3% Tory lead
10) 4% Tory lead
11) 3% Tory lead
12) 3% Tory lead
by Tistoph January 2nd, 2006 at 10:17 am
1) 52 weeks
2) 28 weeks
3) Blair
4) Campbell
5) -270
6) -40
7) 7% Tory lead
23%
9) 3% Tory lead
10) 4% Tory lead
11) 1% Tory lead
12) level
by Andy G January 2nd, 2006 at 10:48 am
1. 52 weeks
2. 42 weeks
3. Blair
4. Davey
5. -600
6. -50
7. +7%
8. 22%
9. +5%
10. +6%
11. +6%
12. +4%
by book value January 2nd, 2006 at 11:18 am
1 - 40 weeks
2 - 22 weeks
3 - Gordon Brown
4 - Menzies Campbell
5 - Labour -180 councillors
6 - Lib Dems -15 councillors
7 - Tories lead 4 points
8 - Tories lead 2 points
9 - Tories lead 8 points
10 - Tories lead by 2 points
by James M January 2nd, 2006 at 1:20 pm
Sorry I got my Labour councillors figure wrong - I meant -280 seats.
by James M January 2nd, 2006 at 1:21 pm
1. For how many weeks of 2006 will Tony Blair continue to be Labour leader?
52 weeks
2. For how many weeks of 2006 will Charles Kennedy continue to be Lib Dem leader?
16 weeks
3. Who will be Labour leader on Christmas Day 2006?
Tony Blair
4. Who will be Lib Dem leader on Christmas Day 2006?
Mark Oaten
5. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be Labour’s net losses or gains of council seats?
306 loss
6. According to the BBC website on the Sunday after the May local elections what will be the Liberal Democrats’ net losses or gains of council seats?
8 loss
7. What will be Cameron’s Conservatives’ best position in relation to Labour in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006?
+ 5%
8. What will be the Lib Dems’ best share in a Guardian ICM poll during 2006?
24%
9. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the February 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+4%
10. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the June 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+4%
11. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the September 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+5%
12. By how many points will the Conservatives be below or above Labour in the December 2006 Guardian ICM poll?
+4%
by Chris Took January 2nd, 2006 at 8:23 pm
1)45 weeks
2)52 weeks (not sure he will, but any other guess would be a bit random, so it seems a good chance of scoring highly)
3)Mr Brown
4)Charlie K
5)Labour down 320 seats
6)Lib Dems up 40
7)Tory 6% lead
8)Max Lib Dems: 25%
9)Feb: 6%
10)June: 4%
11)Sept: 2%
12)Dec: 3%
Roll on 2006!
by tpfkar January 3rd, 2006 at 2:32 am
1. Blair will continue for 52 weeks.
2. Kennedy will be replaced after 12 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Mark Oaten
5. Labour -220 council seats
6. Lib Dems -100 council seats
7. Tory 6 point lead
8. LD 24 points
9. Tory 4 point lead
10. Tory 6 point lead
11. Tory 4 point lead
12. Tory 7 point lead
by David R January 3rd, 2006 at 3:20 am
1 52
2 52
3 Tony Blair
4 Charles Kennedy
5 - 100
6 - 20
7 +9
8 23
9 + 2
10 + 5
11. +3
12 +7
by richard hainsworth January 3rd, 2006 at 7:49 am
1. 39 weeks
2. 13 weeks
3. Gordon Brown
4. Ed Davey
5. -225
6. -110
7. +6
8. 25%
9. +1
10. +6
11. +3
12. +1
by Kevin L January 3rd, 2006 at 1:45 pm
1. 46 weeks
2. 52 weeks
3. Gordon Brown
4. Charles Kennedy
5. -220
6. -80
7. +9
8. 23%
9. +3
10. +4
11. +5
12. +6
by Alasdair January 3rd, 2006 at 2:15 pm
1. 52 weeks
2. 52 weeks
3. T Blair
4. C Kennedy
5. - 225
6. - 35
7. 4% Tory lead
8. 22%
9. 2% Tory lead
10. 4% Tory lead
11. 2% Tory Lead
12. 2% Tory lead
by David Spencer January 3rd, 2006 at 3:27 pm
1. 52 weeks
2. 26 weeks
3. Tony Blair
4. Menzies Campbell
5. Labour -340 seats
6. Lib Dem -64 seats
7. Tory 8 point lead
8. LD 24%
9. February - Tory 4 point lead
10. June - Tory 8 point lead
11. September - Tory 7 point lead
12. December - Tory 8 point lead
by Stephen Thomas January 3rd, 2006 at 8:58 pm
Just for the laughs, though I’ve missed the competition date.
1. 52 weeks.
2. Barred, obviously (though I would have said 20 weeks).
3. Tony Blair
4. Sarah Teather (give it a whirl!)
5. Labour +24 seats.
6. Lib Dems -80 seats.
7. Tory 6 point lead.
8. LD 18%.
9. February- neck and neck.
10. June- 3 point lead.
11. September- 5 point lead.
12. December- 6 point lead.
by Sara January 9th, 2006 at 6:49 pm
