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Is today the day to put your money on Ming?

Tuesday, September 19th, 2006

Surely he’ll still be leader in two years time? After a conference which started with a gloomy opinion poll the Lib Dem leader goes into today’s session in Brighton knowing that he has a fight on his hands over the leadership’s taxation plans. With Lib Dem conferences it is always hard judging how key votes […]

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Can Ming withstand the media barrage?

Friday, May 19th, 2006

How important is a good PMQ performance? Amidst all the big political stories at the moment there’s a special focus on Ming Campbell who, if you read some columnists, is on the critical list. After going through the trauma of ousting Charles Kennedy Ming finds himself under the media microscope every Wednesday when, as Lib […]

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Is Ming right to get rid of his Jaguar?

Thursday, April 20th, 2006

Will there be votes in selling the gas-guzzler? Whatever your politics you cannot but feel a touch of sympathy for new Lib Dem leader, Ming Campbell, who has felt it necessary to put his five litre 20 year old Jaguar XJS onto the market. With green issues suddenly accelerating up the political agenda it must […]

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Never under-estimate the power of incumbency

Wednesday, April 5th, 2006

Betting on a leader’s survival is usually profitable As general rule the best option in the political “How long will they survive” markets is to bet that leaders will go on longer than current perceptions for that’s what they usually do. Politicians who become leaders of their parties are generally pretty tough and resilient. You […]

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Peter Cuthbertson’s guide to political spread-betting

Monday, April 3rd, 2006

A novice punter on out how it works I’ve enjoyed reading PB.C much longer than I’ve been placing bets on elections, so until a few months ago I was mystified by some of the phrases and odds given in the posts. When I made serious effort to find out what it all meant I was […]

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How was the Great Gamble for you?

Wednesday, December 7th, 2005

Did you cash in on Cameron? The Times leads this morning with the headline “The Great Gamble” but it’s not about betting but whether the Tory choice of David Cameron is going to work. For me “The Great Gamble” consisted of the scores of betting contracts I entered into on the contest since May. With […]

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The Tory leadership – a gambler’s tale

Monday, November 28th, 2005

Only nine days to go before the pay-out Whatever your personal view of the Tories or David Cameron we hope that all those who have been tempted to bet will have had a profitable leadership election. The changing implied probabilities Cameron based on best betting odds are illustrated in our chart. From a best price […]

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How to get better than evens on Cameron

Monday, October 17th, 2005

As we said this morning the current prices on Cameron winning are so tight that it has reached the stage where the return might not be worth the risk. If you can get £100 on the current Betfair level of 1.58 a winning bet would produce only £58 profit less commission. On IG’s Binary spread-market, […]