Are we seeing the Observer’s poll two days early?
After the big boost for the Tories in this morning’s YouGov poll there’s another national survey out which shows a growing Conservative lead.
The MORI Monitor for April has been published on the firm’s website, apparently by mistake, and shows the following shares with the changes on March: CON 40% (nc): LAB 31% (-4): LD 19% (+1). My understanding was that this poll was for the Observer on Sunday.
The fieldwork began a week last Thursday and ended on Tuesday – so a part covered the difficult start to the week that Labour had with the 10% tax band revolt.
In recent months MORI has been reporting the worst ratings for the Tories of any of the pollsters. In January it had Labour 1% behind and in February just 2% in front.
Polling is all about trends and this latest survey reinforces the trend seen with YouGov but not with ICM.
The poll also shows a big decline in Gordon Brown’s ratings and have him at -38%. Cameron is on +2%.