Have Kellner and YouGov been vindicated?
The figures are in line with the final poll?
With the final result imminent it’s looking as though the final result will be in the region of a 6% margin for Boris Johnson – almost exactly in line with YouGov’s final poll that was reported exclusively here on Monday evening.
This will come as a great relief to the online pollster which has found itself a political issue in the campaign. Right from the point that the firm was reporting significant Johnson leads the Labour party, the Livingstone campaign and some prominent journalists have been attacking the YouGov approach.
Only on Wednesday the Livingstone campaign made a formal complaint to the Market Research about the firm’s methodology.
Right from the start I have put my faith in YouGov – solely on the grounds that the firm got it within one percent in 2004. In this business its form counts and this is what has guided my betting.
So if the final figures turn out as expected then the pollster might have got it right in two consecutive elections – a remarkable achievement.
For a whole series of reasons London has always been very difficult to poll and some firms have come a cropper here in the past.
If Kellner and his YouGov colleagues are opening the champagne tonight then they deserve it.